A Spirited Perfect Ten

ford91exploder

Resident Curmudgeon
So this pertains to the social media conversations that have been a mainstay of Spirit's threads for many years now.

The Harry Potter Celebration is taking place at Universal this weekend. Apparently Universal held a social media "contest" for access to an after-hours "social media event" that's taking place in Diagon Alley. It includes general publicity stuff: meet and greets with the film talent that was brought in for the weekend, free food, etc.

So my question (maybe someone like @71jason knows): was this event included in the vacation packages that Universal was selling for the Potter Celebration, or was this a social-media-only event?

It was not part of the UNI mailings I get since I now also hold a UNI AP that's all I can say.
 

spacemt354

Chili's
I see that you joined the forum 2 days ago. Welcome to WDWMagic.com. :)

This is what Parks & Resorts (P&R) domestic revenue has done since the opening of WDW in 1971.

View attachment 80799


Under Eisner, domestic revenue grew at a compound annual rate of 9.7% over 21 years. Under Iger, it's grown at a compound annual rate of 5.5% over 9 years.

Please focus on long-term trends rather than comparing one CEO's worst years with another CEO's best years. :)
If we're focusing on long-term trends then why are we comparing an entire body of work over 21 years to someone who has held the position for slightly over 1/3 of the time?

I could take a 9 year span of domestic revenue under Eisner and make the annual rate of growth greater or less than the 5.5% compound annual rate under Iger's 9 years. Or I could take 21 years and compare it to 9 years (3 of which included The "Great Recession") to show how Eisner's compound annual rate is better than Iger's rate. It's all about how you use the statistics. :)

By no means am I an Iger apologist and as much as I want to criticize his performance, I'm not going to make a conclusion by comparing a full body of work to something that isn't finished. :)
 

Hakunamatata

Le Meh
Premium Member
As somebody who studies statistics, I would like to know your sources of your information. Graphs are pointless and potentially misleading if there aren't sources to back you up. Anybody can post a random graph with some nonsense and people will believe it because...it's a graph. See...I can do it, too!:)

image004.gif


Rule number 1 in statistics: Cite your sources, or else your information is pointless
The most understandable numbers I've seen in a while.
 

ParentsOf4

Well-Known Member
If we're focusing on long-term trends then why are we comparing an entire body of work over 21 years to someone who has held the position for slightly over 1/3 of the time?

I could take a 9 year span of domestic revenue under Eisner and make the annual rate of growth greater or less than the 5.5% compound annual rate under Iger's 9 years. Or I could take 21 years and compare it to 9 years (3 of which included The "Great Recession") to show how Eisner's compound annual rate is better than Iger's rate. It's all about how you use the statistics. :)

By no means am I an Iger apologist and as much as I want to criticize his performance, I'm not going to make a conclusion by comparing a full body of work to something that isn't finished. :)
Please don't take this the wrong way but in the business world, 9 years is a long time. Whether it's 9 or 21 years, is irrelevant in determining an annual growth rate. Certainly more than enough time to judge a CEO's performance.

Are you suggesting we shouldn't judge Iger's performance because he's been CEO for 'only' 9 years?
 

ParentsOf4

Well-Known Member
As somebody who studies statistics, I would like to know your sources of your information. Graphs are pointless and potentially misleading if there aren't sources to back you up. Anybody can post a random graph with some nonsense and people will believe it because...it's a graph. See...I can do it, too!:)

Rule number 1 in statistics: Cite your sources, or else your information is pointless
Disney's SEC filings and annual reports. :)
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
As somebody who studies statistics, I would like to know your sources of your information. Graphs are pointless and potentially misleading if there aren't sources to back you up. Anybody can post a random graph with some nonsense and people will believe it because...it's a graph. See...I can do it, too!:)

image004.gif


Rule number 1 in statistics: Cite your sources, or else your information is pointless
I would normally agree with you, especially in the context of an online forum. In this case I personally trust the source. Between info he has posted in the past and some additional stuff through PM I would be comfortable vouching for him. He's not making the numbers up to just to make his point. There are some here who will occasionally twist facts or greatly exaggerate to try to paint a certain picture, but PO4 isn't one of them. Plus I'm pretty sure most of the numbers are available in publicly filed SEC filings. You just need to know where to look to find them.
 

spacemt354

Chili's
Please don't take this the wrong way but in the business world, 9 years is a long time. Whether it's 9 or 21 years, is irrelevant in determining an annual growth rate. Certainly more than enough time to judge a CEO's performance.

Are you suggesting we shouldn't judge Iger's performance because he's been CEO for 'only' 9 years?
Hardly. You didn't understand my post then. :)

It's not the amount of time, because 9 years is a long time. However you're comparing it to 21 years where there is more chance to improve or decline annual growth rates, then making a conclusion regarding performance. If the next few years before Iger's departure improve, (comparable to 9.7%) then you're conclusion wouldn't hold anymore. That's why I'm saying wait till the end of Iger's term before you start using these types of statistics.

I don't need a graph to grade his "performance". A simple eye test can do just fine. :)
 

DisneyDrum

Well-Known Member
Whether or not PO4 is a trustful person, in order for a graph to be most believable, you incorporate sources to back up your claim. It's like me saying "Mitt Romney is not running for president this upcoming election" without any sources to back it up. It sounds likely, but how can we know for sure unless there's solid proof?

In statistics, you learn to always be skeptical of data until proven otherwise. Graphs are notoriously misleading and I do my job questioning every graph presented to me.


While skepticism is good, It's pretty easy to find financial data via a quick google search. We're on a forum here - do you expect PO4 to post a page of methods along with every graph? It seems more reasonable for you to do the work to come up with actual alternative explanations or questions about the data, rather than just asking for sources.
 

danlb_2000

Premium Member
Whether or not PO4 is a trustful person, in order for a graph to be most believable, you incorporate sources to back up your claim. It's like me saying "Mitt Romney is not running for president this upcoming election" without any sources to back it up. It sounds likely, but how can we know for sure unless there's solid proof?

In statistics, you learn to always be skeptical of data until proven otherwise. Graphs are notoriously misleading and I do my job questioning every graph presented to me.
'

What is your source for that? ;)
 

danlb_2000

Premium Member
While skepticism is good, It's pretty easy to find financial data via a quick google search. We're on a forum here - do you expect PO4 to post a page of methods along with every graph? It seems more reasonable for you to do the work to come up with actual alternative explanations or questions about the data, rather than just asking for sources.

Yep, sometimes you just need to learn who to trust. I often make statements based on things in permits, but I don't post the link to the permit every time.
 

danlb_2000

Premium Member
If he makes the graph himself, he can't use 2 extra seconds to post the sources himself? We're supposed to believe him?

Also, I'm not asking for sources, I'm merely suggesting he do something to make him look more statistically viable.

If you have been reading his posts long enough, you would know that this isn't needed. He has explained many times where his statistics come from. Most of us trust that he hasn't suddenly started making up numbers.
 

spacemt354

Chili's
If you have been reading his posts long enough, you would know that this isn't needed. He has explained many times where his statistics come from. Most of us trust that he hasn't suddenly started making up numbers.
I think some people can generate a sense of infallibility around their posts, yet someone who hasn't read the forums as much doesn't know this and just sees a home-made graph.

That being said, I don't think there's anything wrong with questioning statistics. Stats can be inferred many difference ways and as long as it's discussed with decorum I think it can be good for debate.
 

danlb_2000

Premium Member
I think some people can generate a sense of infallibility around their posts, yet someone who hasn't read the forums as much doesn't know this and just sees a home-made graph.

That being said, I don't think there's anything wrong with questioning statistics. Stats can be inferred many difference ways and as long as it's discussed with decorum I think it can be good for debate.

Questioning the statistics is fine, I just have a problem with the idea that people who post here on a regular basis need to include a full set of source references every time they post a piece of information. This is actually the second time this sort of thing has come up recently.
 

Animaniac93-98

Well-Known Member
I saw this comment on tumblr after the 60th Anniversary announcements and it made me lol:

"take a shot everytime under the sea is played for a show or parade"

with the note

"under the sea is the original let it go"

Seriously, Disney has thousands of songs in its library and they keep using the same 5 in every show.

I really like Steve Davison's work, but c'mon man, pick something different for a change.
 

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