A Spirited Dirty Dozen ...

[BrianLo]

"We haven't done big new things in years and now that we are we're blocking you out unless you give us more money. Sorry/not sorry. Have a magical day."

Like I've said before, if the goal is less crowds for tourists around the official opening why not have extended AP exclusive previews rather than giving them the shaft?

I'm going to play the devil's advocate and say I actually understand the desire to block out AP's from the new land temporarily, not the whole park.

The goal is not necessarily money, it is ultimately crowd control. There really is only three options: Let the place be a free for all, block AP's temporarily out of the land or block AP's temporarily out of the park.

IOA/USH are a good case example of how they under-did/overdid it with Potter, essentially the first and third option. The fear drove USH to block AP's entirely after previews. What happened instead was a moderately busy Potter and an absolutely dead park for the majority of the summer. Unlike IOA, which experienced a moderately busy park and an overstuffed Potter.

I think this solution could possibly be the best. Let AP's get the first crack and crowd the place for previews, block them out of the land, but not ultimately the park for tourist season. Nothing is being 'taken away' as a result in terms of true blackout days and at no point in the opening period will the land be overwhelmed by the double whammy of tourists and APs.

Oh right, Disney cares more about the one and dones who spend big money on one trip than their loyal repeat customers. Almost forgot.

They actually care most about the annual week-two week vacationers. They only care about the one and dones in-so-far as they want to convert them into loyal tourists.

Nothing wrong with AP's, but the loyalty stems from proximity and by far the best deal. The price per day of an AP is obscenely less than what a tourist is paying, so it's a little silly to whine about paying less and expecting Disney to at the same time love you the most.

That may be harsh, but your loyalty is rewarded with the cheapest per-day price tag. That's your "thanks" from Disney. It's certainly something I would trade for them loving me a little more.

 

[lazyboy97o]

They actually care most about the annual week-two week vacationers. They only care about the one and dones in-so-far as they want to convert them into loyal tourists.

Nothing wrong with AP's, but the loyalty stems from proximity and by far the best deal. The price per day of an AP is obscenely less than what a tourist is paying, so it's a little silly to whine about paying less and expecting Disney to at the same time love you the most.

That may be harsh, but your loyalty is rewarded with the cheapest per-day price tag. That's your "thanks" from Disney. It's certainly something I would trade for them loving me a little more.

Annual Passholders are not just locals. One is very quickly worthwhile for that annual vacationer you identified as so important.

 

[wdisney9000]

The price per day of an AP is obscenely less than what a tourist is paying, so it's a little silly to whine about paying less and expecting Disney to at the same time love you the most.

Your excusing Disney for wanting to rob Peter to pay Paul simply because they sat on their laurels for so long and now have an attraction capacity issue. And as @lazyboy97o mentioned, not all AP'ers live in Orlando, or even Florida. Last year was the first time my wife and I did not renew our AP's because of the declining benefits and rising prices. We live out of state. We would stay at Deluxe resorts for 5-7 days most trips, several times a year. We ate at a few TS and occasionally Signature spots on each trip. We bought merchandise and attended up charge events several times a year and anybody who has read my Trip Reports will vouch for the insane amount of money we spent on booze each trip.

When we first started visiting as a couple around 12 years ago, we could get a room with our AP discount (usually 30-35%) within a 30-40 day window and always had a variety of choices. A few years ago, that became a nightmare and we had to start booking within a week or two of the AP discount dates being announced otherwise, all availability was gone. Then we started noticing that the AP discount was being slashed all over the place and eliminated in most areas. The price of the AP kept rising, but we remained loyal. Then, last year, I started calling in June to make sure I did not miss the fall AP resort discount. They do not let you know the exact date they release it, so I called weekly and checked the website everyday to insure I did not miss the release of the discount. I awoke one morning to see the website had released the fall discount so I happily logged in to book a room at YC. All I got was "no availability". I tried BC, same result. I tried BW, same result. This was within 24 hours of the dates being released. I figured the reservation system wasnt working properly so I called. I was told by the CM that all AP discounted rooms had been booked at YC, BC, and BW. I asked how that was possible within 24 hours. Her response was that "We released the dates on the website yesterday, but anybody who actually called in to book a room was able to get the AP rate for the 9 days prior to the website releasing the dates". I asked her to check the log of my calling history. She noted I had called about a dozen times within the last few months. I even had the CMs make a note of why I called each time to create a digital paper trail. I asked why in all the times I called to inquire, that I was never told about the dates being released earlier via phone reservation. She had no response. All she could offer me was an AP discounted room about 20 days after the dates we wanted and it was only for 3 days, not the 5 days we wanted. She told me she was "supervisor" (but she used a different term for it) and assured me that there was absolutely nothing that could be done about it.

I sent a polite email and CC'd it to several executives about my situation and why would not be renewing because of the declining service. Low and behold, I got a call THE SAME DAY from a very nice executive who was more than happy to get us the room we wanted with our AP discount. I asked her why the CM at GR on the phone assured me it was not possible and she told me, "I have more power than they do". While it was nice to get a call and have the situation fixed, it was just too much hassle for me to want to renew again for at least a few years. The executive who called even told me that she looked up our history of visiting and how many times we had stayed on property at deluxe and club level resorts. So I asked her why there was nothing in place to prevent loyal customers who spend good money, (more than one and done'ers) from getting shafted. She cited the fact that they switched operating systems over the years and the newer systems just dont give the call center enough information to know a guests complete history. Who knows, either way, we didnt renew because I should not have to endure what I did just to be able to get a simple AP resort discount. I wasnt asking to be "loved by Disney the most", I just wanted the small discount to save a few bucks on my room, that we would have spent in the parks most likely anyway. We were dropping $7-10K annually at WDW and thats not counting the trips we took with our family when they visited. Not anymore though. Sorry for the long post.

 

[Siren]

That reaction video was the best thing I've seen all week. I'm HOLLERING.

Anyone with a horrid recipe for gumbo like that deserves ridicule. That was not gumbo, that was soup Disney created. The first couple of ingredients just didn't do, but kale and quinoa???? FAIL. Whoever created this recipe must have been a native Californian, and I say this as one myself. The recipe screams vegetarian restaurant option on a cool day on the corner of Wilshire and Bundy, with a glass of strawberry water. And to put Tiana's name on it... Wow.

About a week ago, I saw a recipe for sweet potato pie that included parmesan cheese. It was all wrong from the beginning, but to add parmesan cheese to the mix put the cherry on top for one of the worst recipes I've ever seen.

Hi @raven24! LOL. Your post is too funny. And, what you said about California is so true. It totally reminds of the first time I went to California Pizza Kitchen -- I knew that something was up when waiter kept insisting that we have apple juice with our pizza. He was right though, the pizza was gross but the juice was phenomenal as far as juice goes.

Anyway, Tiana's dishes look so good in the movie, though. I think Disney needs to do right by Louisiana and open up a Tiana's Restaurant and then I can finally try some authentic gumbo and beignets.

Now, I have had sweet potato pie before, but it's also very hard to find where I live whereas pumpkin pie is readily available. Anyway, I cannot fathom how Parmesan cheese fits, that sounds so gross..

I will only comment by saying that I take back all of my previous statements which wrongly attributed Disney having any sophisticated knowledge of global marketing strategy (I clearly overestimated it/ made assumptions about them knowing the basics). I will agree that they handled it as well as can be expected, and with grace and sensitivity as you/Siren stated.

Hi @SorcererMC! LOL. I was thinking the same thing, kind of. Disney has so many different streams of revenue and I'm sure they have a screening and approval process but it's just impossible to know how people are going to react to every single product before it hits shelves.

How is the costume offensive?

Hi @brb1006! The Polynesian people are saying that their skin is not a Halloween costume. So, Disney did the right thing by pulling the costume.

Thats a first. Disney is used to delete every single bad comment.
I guess this time the uproar was so huge (and it didnt really affect their wall street earnings) that they decided to go with the flow

Hi @Cesar R M! LOL. That's too funny. I don't know why Disney was so hesitant to take down the gumbo video, they shouldn't have let it get all the way to the White House before they buckled. I don't think Disney will even mess with Louisiana like that ever again.

The Shanghai doom and gloom campaign widely missed the mark. Full stop.

I believe the full prediction included the closure of multiple unfinished rides for up to 6 months, unruly guest behavior, one of our members promised that the Chinese government would be seizing control by now. I guess like those who promise the end of the world, the tea leaves were wrong, the seizure will happen next year...

The park was not without its crazy timeline issues, insane rush to the finish, and is clearly underbuilt for the crowds. TDO has used it as a crutch to maintain cost savings as it spirals its own drain. It has many other thematic quirks-flaws. But that's about the 5% of the insane things we were promised by members here (not just by Spirit, whom obviously was better connected and usually more tempered).

Shanghai is clearly the moderate+ success for whatever reason some folks really, really didn't want it to be. We are scraping the barrel to maintain otherwise at this point.

Hi @BrianLo! This is so true. Disney was totally caught off guard by Shanghai Disneyland's popularity. The moment I saw Siren's Revenge, I knew this park was going to be successful.
Shanghai Disney Is More Popular Than Expected

Not to mention, Katy Perry was just at Shanghai Disney last week, too. LOL.
ELLE: Let Katy Perry Show You How Disneyland Is Done

 

[Siren]

I am serious. But before I get into why I chose $500 million, some comps.

Ant-Man 2015 $519 WW ($180 US/$339 Intl)
Guardians of the Galaxy 2014 $773 WW ($333 US/$440 Intl)
Suicide Squad 2016 $720 WW ($314 US/$406 Intl)
Godzilla 2014 $529 WW ($200 US/$328 Intl)

Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol 2011
$694 WW ($209 US/$485 Intl)
Big Hero Six 2014 $657 WW ($222 US/$435 Intl)

So we have a mix of films with which to predict Rogue One's potential against. Four of the films are the first entries in a series connected to a larger franchise similar to how R1 is the first Star Wars Anthology film. They all performed well for their respective studios, with SS and GotG performing quite well thanks to strong hype that had follow through. However, $700 million shouldn't be the marker to judge R1's success because those films are at the higher end of successful first entry branded films. Both films also had outsized success thanks to weak competition before and after their release weekends which drove demand. Ant-Man and Godzilla 2014 are where Disney/Lucasfilm should set the expectations for R1. Both were well received entries in their respective franchises which both have sequels in development. Ant-Man in particular is a good comp for R1 because they both came after their franchises' respective marquis entries. Half a billion, even if the film doesn't recoup all its costs in theatrical, is on a good path for future revenue streams like Home Entertainment and Moychendising.

The second set of films came out during the holiday season; Opening around Thanksgiving to around Christmas. R1 will be one of the biggest films this holday season, but its release won't benefit from being considered a cultural event in the way TFA was. That, even if we were to discount China which is necessary with SW, will ultimately be what sets the worldwide gross. R1 will be one of the big Hollywood tentpoles coming out during the holidays as theaters around the world have to determine how many booking they should schedule for the concentration of films that open within a 10 period. Therefore, Ghost Protocol and Big Hero 6's success represents the ceiling for R1's worldwide gross, but...

Then there's the China problem...
China Grosses
Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol $101 China ($694 WW)
Godzilla 2014 $77 China ($529 WW)
Guardians of the Galaxy $96 China ($773 WW)
Big Hero Six $83 China ($657 WW)
Avengers: Age of Ultron $240 China ($1,405 WW)
Ant-Man $105 China ($519 WW)
The Force Awakens $124 China ($2,068 WW)
Zootopia $235 China ($1,023 WW)
SS aside, the importance of China in the international film market place cannot be understated. As far as I am concerned, TWDC should realize that the MCU is China's Star Wars and accept these new Star Wars films may not do as well as their other brands do over there. Disney has every reason to try to make Star Wars more popular in China, but the Chinese are not stupid and they can smell China pandering a mile away. (See Iron Man 3 China edition) Donnie Yen can't save a film from disinterest on the part of Chinese audiences. But in terms of a specific prediction for Rogue One, Ant Man again provides a good indication for its performance. Ant Man made less than half of what Ultron did, so it's reasonable a similar drop will occur with TFA and R1. ($50-60)

"It's Still Maui Time!" or Canabalism
Last Fall, The Good Dinosaur became Pixar's first financial failure at the box office. While TWDS typically gives its tentpoles promotional breathing room so each one can recieve the maximum amount of possible attention from the moviegoing public, The Force Awakens sucked all the oxygen out from The Good Dinosuar. Nobody didn't not know a new Star Wars movie was coming out, but many folks didn't know a Pixar movie would be in theaters on Thanksgiving. Why keep carpet bombing the public with Star Wars ads when it would be financially prudent to invest in increasing public awareness/interest in the film that clearly could use those resources? As Disney has wratcheted up its branded tent pole strategy, these films can be too close to each other leading to one or more films to underperform or bomb. For example, this past Summer saw TWDS release 4 tent pole pictures, Civil War, Alice 2, Dory, and The BFG, in a two month period. It was decided that Cap and Dory would get the lion's share of the attention resources because they were seen as more important while the other two were essentially allowed to fail. (Political/critical concerns also played a role) This fall, Disney will release three major tentpoles within 43 days of each other during the most crowded season of the theatrical calendar. Not a single one of these films can't afford to fail in the ways Good Dinosaur, Alice, and BFG did and won't. However, that doesn't mean they wont eat into each other's grosses. The audience might give Moana a cultural moment much like Frozen had over its theatrical release and Rogue One will have to perform against that in a way tentpoles released in the spring, like Zootopia or Jungle Book, don't have to.

To wrap up, Bob is doing the right thing by correcting financial expectations for Rogue One, but the number by which it should be deemed a success, and its likely performance, should be in the $500-$600 million range. Rogue One is going against strong headwinds including historical comps for first entry/holiday films which rule out a worldwide gross higher than the low $700 million range at best, the lack of strong interest from Chinese audiences, and Disney having to balance three large tentpoles during a crowded holiday season.

Addendum:
Strong performance in Europe could help make up the difference for the poor performance in China, but by how much is an open question.
Don't underestimate the difficulty for Disney in selling a Star Wars film that isn't part of the main series.

Initially, I was excited about Rogue One and I was expecting this film to perform about as well as Jurassic World at the box office. But, after Iger's recent remarks about expecting the film to under perform and that it was a one time experiment, I don't know if I want to see Rogue One anymore. I 'll have to see the reviews on this "experiment of sorts."

I really wish Iger would have given this movie a fair chance with the audience, just like he did with Frozen. I didn't see any comments from him expecting Frozen to perform less than Tangled, even though that's what everyone was expecting.

If Rogue One fails, then it is a self fulfilling prophesy -- Iger put the nail in the coffin for this movie before it even had a chance, IMO -- and that is totally unfair.

Rogue One's biggest competition for the holiday season is Universal's Sing which is going to be a huge draw for families over the holiday, so maybe Iger decided to concede early or something weird like that.

 

[Ragerunner]

I think fantastical beast is the one to beat this holiday season

 

[MerlinTheGoat]

I'm probably in the minority with this, but so far i have no interest in seeing either Rogue One or Fantastic Beasts... I await reviews, but the trailers and clips have left me feeling uninterested.

Besides the Clone Wars movie (which was basically just a pilot for the tv series but pushed into theaters, i don't count it as a real Star Wars movie), this is the first time I haven't been interested in a new Star Wars movie.

 

[GoofGoof]

No one has any right to be upset about the blackout dates if they are announced before the annual passes which will encompass these dates go on sale.
Do you disagree with this?

Yes I do. It's not illegal for them to do and I'm not even calling it false advertising or tricking people if it's known in advance. It's just a slap in the face to what is supposed to be some of your most loyal customers. People who own APs that are blacked out absolutely have the right to be upset even if they are announced before the pass is purchased. Just because they announce something ahead of time doesn't mean you can't be upset about it.

I am assuming you buy multi-day Magic your way tickets when you visit WDW. What if they said today that when Star Wars Land opens anyone with a regular multi-day ticket is blacked out from visiting DHS. You have to either buy an additional one day ticket to DHS for $100+ or buy a premium multiday ticket that includes DHS but costs twice as much as your regular pass and the price of your ticket will still be the same even though it's now only for 3 parks instead of 4. Would you not be upset by this because they announced it up front? I don't know about you, but I'd be furious. Yes, I could just not go to WDW but that's not the point. The point is as a fan of Disney parks who is very much looking forward to seeing and experiencing Star Wars Land I would have every right to be upset if they wanted to price gouge me in order to get in and see it.

 

[flynnibus]

Also, 5-6 months? The whole reason we get APs is to go to all four parks all year. To be blocked out that long from the one with the newest thing with prices still going up is disgusting.

Two months is a long time... But I totally support the idea of blackouts to control crowds. Dlr has been doing this to a very small degree, but needs to do more.

Disney could always do ap events and programs... Like run lotteries for a number of tickets good for each day during the blackout... Or even do things like only blackout a single park ,etc

 

[flynnibus]

I am assuming you buy multi-day Magic your way tickets when you visit WDW. What if they said today that when Star Wars Land opens anyone with a regular multi-day ticket is blacked out from visiting DHS. You have to either buy an additional one day ticket to DHS for $100+ or buy a premium multiday ticket that includes DHS but costs twice as much as your regular pass and the price of your ticket will still be the same even though it's now only for 3 parks instead of 4. Would you not be upset by this because they announced it up front? I don't know about you, but I'd be furious. Yes, I could just not go to WDW but that's not the point.

You mean exactly what happens for the private parties and things like Halloween?

 

[flynnibus]

Because the whole point of an AP is that you have access all year round at all four parks.

No the point is you can visit more frequently- unrestricted is just something wdw has been accustomed too. Take for instance the limited versions of passes available at both wdw and dlr

 

[GoofGoof]

I'm going to play the devil's advocate and say I actually understand the desire to block out AP's from the new land temporarily, not the whole park.

The goal is not necessarily money, it is ultimately crowd control. There really is only three options: Let the place be a free for all, block AP's temporarily out of the land or block AP's temporarily out of the park.

IOA/USH are a good case example of how they under-did/overdid it with Potter, essentially the first and third option. The fear drove USH to block AP's entirely after previews. What happened instead was a moderately busy Potter and an absolutely dead park for the majority of the summer. Unlike IOA, which experienced a moderately busy park and an overstuffed Potter.

I think this solution could possibly be the best. Let AP's get the first crack and crowd the place for previews, block them out of the land, but not ultimately the park for tourist season. Nothing is being 'taken away' as a result in terms of true blackout days and at no point in the opening period will the land be overwhelmed by the double whammy of tourists and APs.



They actually care most about the annual week-two week vacationers. They only care about the one and dones in-so-far as they want to convert them into loyal tourists.

Nothing wrong with AP's, but the loyalty stems from proximity and by far the best deal. The price per day of an AP is obscenely less than what a tourist is paying, so it's a little silly to whine about paying less and expecting Disney to at the same time love you the most.

That may be harsh, but your loyalty is rewarded with the cheapest per-day price tag. That's your "thanks" from Disney. It's certainly something I would trade for them loving me a little more.

I can see your point about crowds and I think it's especially an issue at DL since they have a much larger base of AP holders. I think having something like you and @Mike S suggested with AP exclusive previews would make sense, especially at DL. Like you pointed out at WDW it's much more difficult. Lots of AP holders are not locals but rather people who visit for 2 or more weeks a year and find APs more economical. As a DVC owner I know a lot of other owners who don't live in FL but take advantage of the DVC discounted annual passes. With DVC a lot of people book rooms 7 to 11 months in advance so I can't see them announcing a blackout long enough in advance for people to avoid the blackout period.

I know it all really comes down to money, but why punish AP holders for crowd control. If you want to manage crowds sell less one day tickets instead of blacking out AP holders. You know when SW Land finally opens there will be a large uptick in one day ticket sales at DHS. I already know what the answer is

 

[GoofGoof]

You mean exactly what happens for the private parties and things like Halloween?

The private parties don't last 2 months. You can also still visit the parks from opening to 7pm on those days.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

Regarding this DL SWE AP blackouts and crowd talk.

 

[Siren]

I think fantastical beast is the one to beat this holiday season

I don't know. It looks good but appears to be similar to Miss Peregrines's Home for Peculiar Children that opens next week.

Also, Fantastical Beasts is going up against Moana for the Thanksgiving weekend box office take. I don't think it stands a chance against Moana but we'll see.

 

[flynnibus]

The private parties don't last 2 months. You can also still visit the parks from opening to 7pm on those days.

Myw buyers don't visit for two months... But the party blocks do
The point is still the same... If you want that "full" value you thought you were owed... You had to buy up beyond your initial pass.

This whole back and forth is an emotional only argument

 

[FigmentJedi]

I don't know. It looks good but appears to be similar to Miss Peregrines's Home for Peculiar Children that opens next week.

Also, Fantastical Beasts is going up against Moana for the Thanksgiving weekend box office take. I don't think it stands a chance against Moana but we'll see.

Yeah, but does anybody even care about Tim Burton's X-Men movie? I mean, when's the last time a Tim Burton movie was successful? Johnny Depp in Burtonland?

 

[thehowiet]

Myw buyers don't visit for two months... But the party blocks do
The point is still the same... If you want that "full" value you thought you were owed... You had to buy up beyond your initial pass.

This whole back and forth is an emotional only argument

I respectfully disagree completely. The party exclusives are just that. Until they start keeping an entire land or even an E-Ticket attraction open ONLY during these upcharge events, these aren't even remotely close to being the same. The blockout would prevent you from experiencing the park entirely, whereas during the months that the upcharge parties occur guests who purchase MYW tix can still visit from 9-7, every single day.

 

[flynnibus]

I respectfully disagree completely. The party exclusives are just that. Until they start keeping an entire land or even an E-Ticket attraction open ONLY during these upcharge events, these aren't even remotely close to being the same. The blockout would prevent you from experiencing the park entirely, whereas during the months that the upcharge parties occur guests who purchase MYW tix can still visit from 9-7, every single day.

Don't compare the party to the ap block-out. The point of the party analogy is addressing the point of if advance notice or not makes a difference. The statement of "Would you not be upset by this because they announced it up front? I don't know about you, but I'd be furious. Yes, I could just not go to WDW but that's not the point."

 

[Mike S]

Don't compare the party to the ap block-out. The point of the party analogy is addressing the point of if advance notice or not makes a difference. The statement of "Would you not be upset by this because they announced it up front? I don't know about you, but I'd be furious. Yes, I could just not go to WDW but that's not the point."

New park attractions are much more enticing than the parties. Of course we'd be angrier about being blocked from one over the other. Plus, it's Star Wars.

I really hope this crap doesn't start with Avatar next year but if it does it might be a good thing. If they get enough furious backlash they may never try it again.