flynnibus
Premium Member
Shifting gears for a bit, I've been on nights and able to peruse the Shanghai Disney wait times occasionally as a result.
We are now more than two months out from opening, but still on the last legs of the peak flex pricing days (set to drop a reasonably substantial 26% September 1st).
I'm still consistently seeing wait times in excess of what I experienced on the sold out 'capacity' Saturday for the opening period (the actual opening day itself was capacity restricted due to the shorted hours of operation).
Really meaning a few things:
1. Shanghai continues to run at or near capacity despite cheaper pricing kicking in very soon.
2. I wouldn't be surprised if they actually have somewhat continued to bump allowable capacity considering everything is posting bad waits, even Pirates.
3. Those doomsday Shanghai predictions are starting to come off the rails.
4. I'd anticipate annual attendance matching or exceeding their stated goals at this rate (without having to lie to get there).
5. Even with expected posted losses, the removal of the capex will easily prop up P&R for the next four quarters. Which is good considering how things at WDW have been sounding lately.
For reference, sampling of wait ranges from opening to mid-day the past 10 days:
Soaring - 130-150 minutes
Roaring - 120-180 minutes
SDMT - 105-135 minutes
Tron - 75-135 minutes (plus one opening at 30)
Pan - 40-75 minutes
Voyage - 30-40 minutes (opening 5)
Pirates - 30-50 minutes (opening 5)
Pooh - 40-75 minutes
Canoes - 40 minutes (!!one opening 105!!)
The rest is what you'd expect 30-50ish minutes. Even omnimovers like Buzz. You actually can't get on anything in under thirty minutes for the majority of the day, even mid-week.
One final thing: to the surprise of no one they desperately need more capacity. At least they have the justification that the park thus far is suceeding.
Don't use wait times as a measure of volume or success. Because you can incorrectly assume capacity is at full vs being held back for operational reasons. Ultimately it's the guest spend that rings home on success...