2022 TEA/AECOM Theme Index

wdwfan4ver

Well-Known Member
But it's not a "claim". Magic Kingdom is still capped at about 50,000. Give or take a little. I don't recall what the last number is but it's definitely still capped. I know you don't want to believe it but it's absolutely true. I don't have firsthand knowledge of the other three parks but I can only assume they are capped too.
I have a hard time to believe Animal Kingdom was capped off in terms of 2022 numbers. You just don't go from almost 13.9 million guests in 2019 to 9 million in 2022. That is way too low for Animal Kingdom in terms of capacity cap. If it was 10 or 11 million guests, I would believe you.

I believe you for Epcot considering the former Future World is still has parts under construction.

I also believe you for DHS and Magic Kingdom.
 

Tha Realest

Well-Known Member
I have a hard time to believe Animal Kingdom was capped off in terms of 2022 numbers. You just don't go from almost 13.9 million guests in 2019 to 9 million in 2022. That is way too low for Animal Kingdom in terms of capacity cap. If it was 10 or 11 million guests, I would believe you.

I believe you for Epcot considering the former Future World is still has parts under construction.

I also believe you for DHS and Magic Kingdom.
Anecdotally I seem to recall MK and DHS often having the least availability on a given date. Epcot and DAK didn’t seem to have nearly as many capacity issues (likely due to larger parks and less customer demand)
 

BlakeW39

Well-Known Member
The Nondescript Coaster Themed Like India or Whatever has been the best attraction return on investment to open during the Bobs Era and yet Iger’s first, paramount rule has been to prohibit similar projects. The Franchise Mandate fundamentally means that park projects are not able to serve the best interests of the parks. It’s not about the best ideas but what supports the needs of select franchises.

I think the IP mandate is one symptom of a larger overall problem with Iger's business philosophies. The writing is all over the wall really. He's so obsessed with brand and marketing pop. Franchise sequel remake and so on.

He's just not creative. He sees no value in creativity. Leveraging existing IP yields higher returns on average and is less risky. It's known, it's material that already exists that we can "use" to our benefit. Matter of fact it would be stupid, in his mind, NOT to use it whenever you have the chance. Literally doing less for more.

He's also particularly disinterested in the parks as a product which is why they probably suffer the most. That and he seems to just generally doubt public interest in non-IP parks attractions, which is kind of dumb.

But as I have said before. It's easier to pump oil out of the ground repeatedly rather than invest in new methods for creating energy. But once that well dries up, and it WILL make no mistake, that's that. Gotta move on and make something new.
 

BlakeW39

Well-Known Member
I have a hard time to believe Animal Kingdom was capped off in terms of 2022 numbers. You just don't go from almost 13.9 million guests in 2019 to 9 million in 2022. That is way too low for Animal Kingdom in terms of capacity cap. If it was 10 or 11 million guests, I would believe you.

I believe you for Epcot considering the former Future World is still has parts under construction.

I also believe you for DHS and Magic Kingdom.

I think we're running with a false dichotomy here

park attendance can be capped on a day to day basis AND that can also not be the only reason for the parks' larger attendance decreases
 

Disone

Well-Known Member
I have a hard time to believe Animal Kingdom was capped off in terms of 2022 numbers. You just don't go from almost 13.9 million guests in 2019 to 9 million in 2022. That is way too low for Animal Kingdom in terms of capacity cap. If it was 10 or 11 million guests, I would believe you.

I believe you for Epcot considering the former Future World is still has parts under construction.

I also believe you for DHS and Magic Kingdom.
I don't have any insiders in the other three parks. Well I do at Epcot.... now but they have only been there for about a month.

Magic Kingdom I have more of a direct contact who absolutely has exposure to what the cap is and what the " in park " is on any given day.

So honestly I can't speak to any of the other parks except Magic Kingdom. I can only assume that they too are capped.

However there are two things here that can both be true at the same time.

This is purely speculative on my part..... But I suspect highly that the parks can be capped, while also not achieving that cap with the frequency desired by TDO.
 

lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
I have a hard time to believe Animal Kingdom was capped off in terms of 2022 numbers. You just don't go from almost 13.9 million guests in 2019 to 9 million in 2022. That is way too low for Animal Kingdom in terms of capacity cap. If it was 10 or 11 million guests, I would believe you.

I believe you for Epcot considering the former Future World is still has parts under construction.

I also believe you for DHS and Magic Kingdom.
As already noted, Disney’s Animal Kingdom also lost a lot of evening offerings without replacement.

When you design a theme park and work out its capacity, the total design day (the model day which is between average and peak attendance) attendance is greater than the instantaneous capacity (how many people you can accommodate at a single moment) because people don’t visit a park all at the same time. Some people stay open to close most people typically do not.

Pure speculation, but I would assume that the reservation caps take this pattern of visitation into account. So while Disney’s Animal Kingdom is a physically large park it may be getting less “extra” capacity (for lack of a better term) due to its lost operating hours.
 

Coaster Lover

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
No
To simply, the estimates for 2022 are:

Magic Kingdom: 17.1 million
Disneyland: 16.8 million
Islands of Adventure: 11 million
Hollywood Studios: 10.9 million
Universal Studios: 10.75 million
EPCOT: 10 million
Animal Kingdom: 9 million
California Adventure: 9 million
Universal Hollywood: 8.4 million

Typhoon Lagoon: 1.92 million
Volcano Bay: 1.85 million

Disney Studios Paris attendance was actually higher in 2022 than 2019! By about 95K, but still...

Disneyland Paris was also better in 2022 than 2019. By 185K

Islands of Adventure was the only Orlando park to do better in 2022 than 2019.
Thank you! It hurt my brain that the rankings were based on the 2019 numbers (and not the 2022 numbers). Seeing the ranking by the 2022 numbers is helpful...
 

HauntedPirate

Park nostalgist
Premium Member
But it's not a "claim". Magic Kingdom is still capped at about 50,000. Give or take a little. I don't recall what the last number is but it's definitely still capped. I know you don't want to believe it but it's absolutely true. I don't have firsthand knowledge of the other three parks but I can only assume they are capped too.
Honestly, I’m not doubting you. (I have my reasons why I’m not)

But the math... A 50k cap is 18.25 million over the year, or just a million in total more than the TEA-reported attendance for MK in 2022. So for that to fit, MK was handling an average of 47k guests (basically maximum capacity) every day for the entire year, and that’s not a lot of wiggle room for days that were far lower than 47k (I was there in September and it wasn’t even close to that busy). I can’t buy that, not even for a dollar.
 

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
Star Wars Galaxy Edge has not been a game changer for Disney Hollywood Studios in regards attendance. I'd have expected double digit growth for Studios.
We don't have the data to show that.

SWL in DHS opened at the end of Aug of 2019 and RotR didn't open until December. That's barely enough time to affect the 2019 number.

Then, in 2020, it was only open for two and a half month before the lockdowns happened.

And for 2022, most parks are still down from their 2019 peaks.

Tho... DHS has recovered 95% of 2019 attendance, which is better than most other parks.
 

TheMaxRebo

Well-Known Member
We don't have the data to show that.

SWL in DHS opened at the end of Aug of 2019 and RotR didn't open until December. That's barely enough time to affect the 2019 number.

Then, in 2020, it was only open for two and a half month before the lockdowns happened.

And for 2022, most parks are still down from their 2019 peaks.

Tho... DHS has recovered 95% of 2019 attendance, which is better than most other parks.

I am sure Disney would love to show a bigger improvement, but the fact the studios is closest to their 2019 numbers I think is a testament to the changes made there being a draw to people

Or at least having TSL, GE, MMRR is enough to make DHS a priority over AK for folks
 

JD80

Well-Known Member
Some general reflections on the numbers:

- That Magic Kingdom had 4 million less people visiting it in 2022 than in 2019, but still felt "busy" says a lot

- That attendance in 2022 was still well below 2019 explains why there's such an aggressive push to squeeze more out of the people who are visiting. Despite what the company and its fans say, I don't think it's a sustainable solution to lower attendance. They need to do more to encourage people to come back, or visit more often, and charging significantly more doesn't sound like the answer

- Animal Kingdom was the least attended WDW park by a sizeable margin, which makes sense to me since it has gone the longest without a major addition (it's actually lost a ride since then too). The renewed interest in Avatar will help somewhat, but that will only go so far. Obviously Disney knows this which is why there are major investment plans, but I don't see a Zootopia reskin of Dinosaur and maybe an extra Moana ride creating the kind of attendance bump they're hoping for. The park needs, and has needed, much more than that

- I honestly think WDSP has the potential to increase its visitation by 50% because the park is so small and unattended as is, that adding an extra 2.5-3 million/year sounds plausible with the right investment and expansion. We'll see if Disney actually does that or keeps going with "temporary" band aid fixes like Cars Road Trip and Alice in BMX Land.

- At this point, Disney is just throwing money away with EPCOT. The investments over the last decade have not translated to major attendance gains, despite what so many defenders of Frozen and Guardians have said here for years. The park was successful for 40 years without a roller coaster, so I'm not surprised to see one not really moving the attendance needle like they thought it would. I'd say the biggest thing holding EPCOT back were the restrictions on APs, park reservations, park hopping limits, no after 4 tickets etc. The festival push by Disney has fundamentally changed why people go to this park in the first place. It's the place locals go to hang out and resort guests go for dinner. People don't go for the headliner rides (except maybe Soarin') or the characters. Those are just extra things to do where you're there. It's more like Disney Springs now, where people can leisurely walk around, explore without being rushed, catch some entertainment and have a good meal. It's not a major draw for going to WDW, but it has developed an audience over the years who appreciate it for what it is and trying to make it more like Universal Studios isn't going to make it more popular with those who would rather do something else to begin with. They should have focused on revitalizing existing pavilions (Imagination, Seas, Energy, Wonders of Life) instead of spending money tearing down useful space (Innoventions West), or building expensive rides that don't substantially increase capacity (Ratatouille). The blueprint for how to keep EPCOT fresh was laid out in the early 80s and every time Disney has tried to do something different it never works in the long run.

I still don't understand why Disney doesn't do dynamic hopping. I.e. a push to your MDE that allows someone's party to hop to another park for free, thus pulling people away from a busy park to a slow park.

Imagine getting a push notification from MK to go to EPCOT for free with a free snack offer or something at like 4/5pm.
 

Tha Realest

Well-Known Member
I still don't understand why Disney doesn't do dynamic hopping. I.e. a push to your MDE that allows someone's party to hop to another park for free, thus pulling people away from a busy park to a slow park.

Imagine getting a push notification from MK to go to EPCOT for free with a free snack offer or something at like 4/5pm.
Supposedly (early on) one component of Genie was to provide bonuses and discounts. I feel like Chapek or D’Amaro mentioned this in an interview or a presentation.

Has anyone gotten one of those surprise bonuses or freebies?
 

TheMaxRebo

Well-Known Member
I still don't understand why Disney doesn't do dynamic hopping. I.e. a push to your MDE that allows someone's party to hop to another park for free, thus pulling people away from a busy park to a slow park.

Imagine getting a push notification from MK to go to EPCOT for free with a free snack offer or something at like 4/5pm.

Agreed - if Epcot is extra empty push offer to let hop to there. If DHS is over crowded push to people offering to hop to another park

The concept of crowd control makes a ton of sense, I just don't think they do a lot of it (beyond pricing vacation weeks more expensive)
 

RSoxNo1

Well-Known Member
1) we know Guardians Price tag was absurd.. so let's park that thought
2) you really can't rate Guardians like this in isolation. EPCOT is still a wasteland.. Disney still had these stupid park hopping rules, ride limits and Virtual Queues regulating demand strictly.

I'm pretty sure Disney is cognizant enough to recognize the finite capacity of an attraction plus forward visibility in availability of Virtual Queues will put a wet blanket on the idea of just unbridled attendance clicks. The old measuring stick of 'boosted gate clicks' is not the same.

Meanwhile, Disney has managed to keep every seat 'sold' every day it's operated, and is able to sell out it's premium access. Literally selling every seat they have available. It's a fan favorite. It's been very reliable. The # of available riders and the consequence of VQs being sold out are all known ahead of time. I'm pretty sure by all the expectations they had it's going pretty well.

I think you are operating on different assumptions then they were in terms of measuring success or not.
I've talked to a few people about Guardians' price tag and the speculation is that the price had to include a lot of the retention pond manipulation. I'd love to here if anyone has insight on how they got to $450 mil.
 

RSoxNo1

Well-Known Member
Just for fun, plotted the top 10, 2022 vs 2019 ... yellow line is % change (and on secondary axis). MK, EPCOT, and AK were only ones down double-digit $ ... AK really took its lumps

DHS held up ok - guess shows adding a number of new things is a draw. Be interesting to see how EPCOT looks next year with Guardians and Rat, etc. - basically the park with the most recent updates



View attachment 723782
Guardians requiring a park reservation and virtual queue is propping up EPCOT right now.
 

RSoxNo1

Well-Known Member
I don't know who, but somebody at Disney is terrible at identifying the actual problems at WDW.

With the exception of Pandora, seemingly every significant investment there in the last 15 years has failed to actually solve or assuage the problems they were meant to address. Nearly every project in that time has been hampered by some misstep or misconception of the actual issues.

The few that they have in the pipeline seem similarly out of touch with what the respective parks actually need.

Who is in charge here??
I think the additions to DHS have absolutely helped it attendance wise. It's now the 2nd highest attended WDW park in Florida, but it's true growth was affected by external factors: COVID and Disney's poor decisions (pricing, park reservations, restricting attendance).

Historically, the investments in DAK have yielded the best results, it's hard to tell if that's a quality issue, a luck issue or something totally different. I'd like to give credit to Joe Rohde, but I will absolutely acknowledge that Rise of the Resistance is a better experience than Flight of Passage or Expedition Everest.

Disney still has a problem though and that's that top brass still don't understand the theme parks. Yes, they're now willing to throw money at the parks, but they don't "get" them. Money will help, but their decision making process still shows a lack of understanding of the guest experience and thematic integrity. The pendulum may have swung too far in the direction of simply "add new things until we don't need to anymore".
 
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lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Supposedly (early on) one component of Genie was to provide bonuses and discounts. I feel like Chapek or D’Amaro mentioned this in an interview or a presentation.

Has anyone gotten one of those surprise bonuses or freebies?
They’ve been talking about that sort of stuff since the NextGen days. They can’t really crack people not getting used to it, the creepy factor of tracking people and the legalities of tracking kids.
 

Disone

Well-Known Member
Honestly, I’m not doubting you. (I have my reasons why I’m not)

But the math... A 50k cap is 18.25 million over the year, or just a million in total more than the TEA-reported attendance for MK in 2022. So for that to fit, MK was handling an average of 47k guests (basically maximum capacity) every day for the entire year, and that’s not a lot of wiggle room for days that were far lower than 47k (I was there in September and it wasn’t even close to that busy). I can’t buy that, not even for a dollar.
Heard! (Also I love how you can disagree and totally keep it civil. Truly thank you for that. More on that and a moment.)

Note I said at about 50,000. There's a distinct possibility here that I'm rounding up 🙂. I was trying to avoid being yelled and told how wrong I am by giving a number that might be a little bit south of 50.
And even more shocking, they're not even hitting that cap which is why you see so many blockout dates lifted for the cast members and the annual passholders.
And yet the feedback far and wide is loud and clear, " the park is more crowded than ever"....
 

HauntedPirate

Park nostalgist
Premium Member
Heard! (Also I love how you can disagree and totally keep it civil. Truly thank you for that. More on that and a moment.)

Note I said at about 50,000. There's a distinct possibility here that I'm rounding up 🙂. I was trying to avoid being yelled and told how wrong I am by giving a number that might be a little bit south of 50.
And even more shocking, they're not even hitting that cap which is why you see so many blockout dates lifted for the cast members and the annual passholders.
And yet the feedback far and wide is loud and clear, " the park is more crowded than ever"....

Right? Crowds can be low and things still feel “crowded”. The only time it doesn’t is recently when crowds were *really* low. So something is afoot with that. The reports from the boots-on-the-ground gives a lot of credence to those who have been saying Disney is manipulating things to make the parks feel more crowded.

And thanks. I’m always willing to have an intelligent discussion. 😀 And admit if I’m wrong.
 

mattpeto

Well-Known Member
Although there are a few major factors, I think it's loss of perceived value is the biggest factor of softer attendance numbers.

Making the Bubble (without the upcharges) what it was in 2020 would go a long way for people.

Genie+ is a revenue stream they won't give up easily.

But adding back in Magical Express (or even a voucher for Uber/Lyft with a DME waiver), providing magicbands, and some free line skipping program would start to rebuild some good faith.

We really aren't talking a ton of money per guest.
 

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