2022 TEA/AECOM Theme Index

[lazyboy97o]

Halfway through last year, I found the parks to be decently staffed. As of the last few months, I haven't had a problem with low staffing at any park.

2022 is definitely still an outlier due to the revenge travel that occurred with international visitors, but the fact that Universal was able to recovery fully and still increase attendance is staggering.

Disney still has venues closed and services not fully offered. An entire water park is still closed.

Don’t these numbers sort of undermine the idea of revenge travel? Wouldn’t that show a surge and visitation beyond 2019 levels instead of many places still not being at 2019 levels?

 

[Andrew25]

Disney still has venues closed and services not fully offered. An entire water park is still closed.

My resort numbers are not taking into account the water parks because of that. As great as Disney's water parks are, there's no denying that Aquatica/Volcano Bay has been actively working on taking away attendance from them with their new additions and higher number of offerings.

Don’t these numbers sort of undermine the idea of revenge travel? Wouldn’t that show a surge and visitation beyond 2019 levels instead of many places still not being at 2019 levels?

Revenge travel doesn't mean that attendance has to be higher than in 2019 in a single year, just a return to "normal" travel patterns spread over the course of a few years. There are still people who have delayed their trips or cancelled outright and shifted destinations.

 

[el_super]

Disney is still king... but alarm bells have to be going off in anticipation of 2025.

Probably not. If a lot of the increases at IOA were being driven by locals coming on Annual Passes, the attendance numbers would be higher, but not necessarily the revenue and that's what really matters. So far the parks have been doing really well, on the revenue side. If anything is setting off alarm bells, it's the slowing of tourism in general.

Despite attendance still being below still rather recent peaks the parks feel just as, if not more, crowded.

Overall, I agree an interesting takeaway is that numbers are actually down, whether or not that is by design, but the lower attendance isn't leading to the improved experience that was promised.

It will probably take years to really determine, but it is still a question in this grand experiment of theirs. A 10%-20% drop in attendance might not have the big impact that Iger and team were hoping for in 2019. If your wait time for the Mine Train went from 60 minutes to 48 minutes, do you really notice? If that ends up being the case though, that lower wait times make no discernable difference to guest satisfaction, that would put pressure back toward filling the park at any cost.

 

[Disney Analyst]

What I see is a resilient industry bouncing back from severe hardships of a pandemic.

Congratulations to everyone for a speedy recovery! May it continue.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Some general reflections on the numbers:

- That Magic Kingdom had 4 million less people visiting it in 2022 than in 2019, but still felt "busy" says a lot

- That attendance in 2022 was still well below 2019 explains why there's such an aggressive push to squeeze more out of the people who are visiting. Despite what the company and its fans say, I don't think it's a sustainable solution to lower attendance. They need to do more to encourage people to come back, or visit more often, and charging significantly more doesn't sound like the answer

- Animal Kingdom was the least attended WDW park by a sizeable margin, which makes sense to me since it has gone the longest without a major addition (it's actually lost a ride since then too). The renewed interest in Avatar will help somewhat, but that will only go so far. Obviously Disney knows this which is why there are major investment plans, but I don't see a Zootopia reskin of Dinosaur and maybe an extra Moana ride creating the kind of attendance bump they're hoping for. The park needs, and has needed, much more than that

- I honestly think WDSP has the potential to increase its visitation by 50% because the park is so small and unattended as is, that adding an extra 2.5-3 million/year sounds plausible with the right investment and expansion. We'll see if Disney actually does that or keeps going with "temporary" band aid fixes like Cars Road Trip and Alice in BMX Land.

- At this point, Disney is just throwing money away with EPCOT. The investments over the last decade have not translated to major attendance gains, despite what so many defenders of Frozen and Guardians have said here for years. The park was successful for 40 years without a roller coaster, so I'm not surprised to see one not really moving the attendance needle like they thought it would. I'd say the biggest thing holding EPCOT back were the restrictions on APs, park reservations, park hopping limits, no after 4 tickets etc. The festival push by Disney has fundamentally changed why people go to this park in the first place. It's the place locals go to hang out and resort guests go for dinner. People don't go for the headliner rides (except maybe Soarin') or the characters. Those are just extra things to do where you're there. It's more like Disney Springs now, where people can leisurely walk around, explore without being rushed, catch some entertainment and have a good meal. It's not a major draw for going to WDW, but it has developed an audience over the years who appreciate it for what it is and trying to make it more like Universal Studios isn't going to make it more popular with those who would rather do something else to begin with. They should have focused on revitalizing existing pavilions (Imagination, Seas, Energy, Wonders of Life) instead of spending money tearing down useful space (Innoventions West), or building expensive rides that don't substantially increase capacity (Ratatouille). The blueprint for how to keep EPCOT fresh was laid out in the early 80s and every time Disney has tried to do something different it never works in the long run.

 

[flynnibus]

Don’t these numbers sort of undermine the idea of revenge travel? Wouldn’t that show a surge and visitation beyond 2019 levels instead of many places still not being at 2019 levels?

Because all of these arguments are usually relative comparisons... about demand surging above supply... but failing to anchor both supply and demand references to long term trends -- instead only comparing to what was in the relative period. So 'surging demand' (vs previous adjacent periods) but not vs long term established benchmarks.

Airlines are crowded! Because Airlines contracted during the drop...
WDW is crowded! Because WDW isn't as full running capacity...
etc

 

[flynnibus]

They should have focused on revitalizing existing pavilions (Imagination, Seas, Energy, Wonders of Life) instead of spending money tearing down useful space (Innoventions West), or building expensive rides that don't substantially increase capacity (Ratatouille). The blueprint for how to keep EPCOT fresh was laid out in the early 80s and every time Disney has tried to do something different it never works in the long run.

You're also assuming that attendance is the metric they are most focused on.

For all we know, EPCOT could be making more money then ever through the festival model even with the attendance drop.

Why spend hundreds of millions if vendors will pay you to be there and you make money from patrons buying that stuff too?

 

[Animaniac93-98]

You're also assuming that attendance is the metric they are most focused on.

For all we know, EPCOT could be making more money then ever through the festival model even with the attendance drop.

Why spend hundreds of millions if vendors will pay you to be there and you make money from patrons buying that stuff too?

But if that's the main line of revenue, why spend $500 million on a roller coaster? Or why not just the Crepe place without Ratatouille?

They obviously want both, but are not making the most effective decisions.

 

[flynnibus]

But if that's the main line of revenue, why spend $500 million on a roller coaster? Or why not just the Crepe place without Ratatouille?

Because you do need to keep a draw - that is not perpetual without upkeep. But this is not about extremes. My point was you were advocating adding attractions to boost attendance. My point was, maybe that's not what's the metric that matters in the 'now'.

Attendance is fuel for other revenue streams... not the prize in itself.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Remember that these figures cover the time period from 18 months ago to 6 months ago.

There was most definitely times that capacity was reached for the reservation system. I know, because I was there in October and December of 2022 and I had to deal with 'full parks' with no more reservations.

If you want to preemptively call me a liar, @HauntedPirate, for saying that, you can go pound the sand your false narrative rests on.

I most definitely saw the TSRs I went to short of staff, and as @lazyboy97o pointed out, in that time frame, there were plenty of venues not back to operating at all. That's why we had the thread documenting how much has 'returned'. Eighteen months ago, it was far from 100%.

BlogMickey has the same take I do as to the executive strategy to restrict attendance with both reservations and with higher prices (and surge pricing at that).

Even though the attendance figures from TEA are not “official”, Disney CFO Christine McCarthy made comments in August 2022 that seem to back up what’s in this new TEA report – attendance is below 2019 levels, but guest spending is 40% higher than in 2019.​

​

Before we dive too deep into the concept of “lower” attendance and higher guest spending, let’s take a look at the estimated attendance figures for the Walt Disney World theme parks....​

​

...As strong as the percentage increase at Magic Kingdom was, it is still below the 2019 attendance figure of roughly 21 million visitors. Again, if we take executive comments at face value, this is part of a strategy and not something to be concerned about. We’ll talk more about that later....​

​

...2022 marked the first year at Walt Disney World that wasn’t significantly impacted by COVID-19. International travel was impacted, which can explain away some of the numbers at Walt Disney World, but that should be fully remedied this year. The question is: what is the new normal?​

​

In short, Disney seemingly delivered on the idea of controlling attendance while maintaining profits. In 2022, Walt Disney World operated at about 80% of its 2019 attendance figures. Even if we add back international, Disney might not get back to 2019 levels and that might be a good thing....​

​

...Late 2019 and early 2020 were very crowded at Disney World. The experience was bursting at the seams and Disney simply wasn’t expanding enough to keep pace with demand.​

2022 Theme Parks Attendance Report: Lower Attendance, Higher Guest Spending Strategy in Action at Disney World

The 2022 Global Attractions Attendance Report has been published by the Themed Entertainment Association (TEA) + Disney World attendance

blogmickey.com

Universal Orlando Attendance Remains Higher Than Most Disney World Theme Parks as Disney Claws Back Market Share

Take a look at the estimated 2022 attendance figures for Universal Orlando and Walt Disney World as Disney claws back market share

blogmickey.com

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Because you do need to keep a draw - that is not perpetual without upkeep. But this is not about extremes. My point was you were advocating adding attractions to boost attendance. My point was, maybe that's not what's the metric that matters in the 'now'.

Attendance is fuel for other revenue streams... not the prize in itself.

But you don't spend that kind of money on a single attraction to keep the draw. You can do that with incremental investments or smaller scale attractions.

I understand you're point, but you don't build a major headliner that expensive hoping to hold attendance steady, or at least Disney has never done that in the past. Think about Cars Land, DLP Space Mountain, Tower or Terror, Everest, Harry Potter, all major investments, but with clear results in driving visitation.

GotG may be the worst RoI of any ride in Disney history. That's a problem, especially when the same amount of money could have been spent on any number of other things for the park (either one lump sum, or over time), including investments to boost those other metrics.

 

[Tha Realest]

But you don't spend that kind of money on a single attraction to keep the draw. You can do that with incremental investments or smaller scale attractions.

I understand you're point, but you don't build a major headliner that expensive hoping to hold attendance steady, or at least Disney has never done that in the past. Think about Cars Land, DLP Space Mountain, Tower or Terror, Everest, Harry Potter, all major investments, but with clear results in driving visitation.

GotG may be the worst RoI of any ride in Disney history. That's a problem, especially when the same amount of money could have been spent on any number of other things for the park (either one lump sum, or over time), including investments to boost those other metrics.

Speaking of ROI, it seems DHS’s additions of SWGE and MMRR may not have created an attendance bump as hoped?

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Speaking of ROI, it seems DHS’s additions of SWGE and MMRR may not have created an attendance bump as hoped?

View attachment 723770

I noticed that too, but DHS is closer to 2019 levels than the other parks and ranks above EPCOT and AK.

I suspect it would be doing worse without SWGE and MMRR.

 

[Sir_Cliff]

But you don't spend that kind of money on a single attraction to keep the draw. You can do that with incremental investments or smaller scale attractions.

I understand you're point, but you don't build a major headliner that expensive hoping to hold attendance steady, or at least Disney has never done that in the past. Think about Cars Land, DLP Space Mountain, Tower or Terror, Everest, Harry Potter, all major investments, but with clear results in driving visitation.

GotG may be the worst RoI of any ride in Disney history. That's a problem, especially when the same amount of money could have been spent on any number of other things for the park (either one lump sum, or over time), including investments to boost those other metrics.

I don't think many people would argue about the cost of GotG being beyond the bounds of reasonable, but in terms of attendance, did Epcot really fare that badly last year? Its increase of 29% was the second-largest after MK's 35% out of the parks even though much of it was a construction zone.

The question I would have is where Epcot's attendance would have been without a new major headliner last year and Ratatouille not long before that. It is a counterfactual, but the park was in such a dire state, including Harmonious flopping, that I wonder whether these attractions were bigger draws than they may seem on the surface as Animal Kingdom (IMO, a better park) has gone from having higher attendance than Epcot in 2019 to now lagging behind Epcot by close to 1 million visitors.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

I don't think many people would argue about the cost of GotG being beyond the bounds of reasonable, but in terms of attendance, did Epcot really fare that badly last year? Its increase of 29% was the second-largest after MK's 35% out of the parks even though much of it was a construction zone.

The question I would have is where Epcot's attendance would have been without a new major headliner last year and Ratatouille not long before that. It is a counterfactual, but the park was in such a dire state, including Harmonious flopping, that I wonder whether these attractions were bigger draws than they may seem on the surface as Animal Kingdom (IMO, a better park) has gone from having higher attendance than Epcot in 2019 to now lagging behind Epcot by close to 1 million visitors.

Without question, it would have been worse, but I'm not convinced the major and much hyped EPCOT redo (that has changed plans more than once) is the success Disney wants it to be or could have been.

 

[hopemax]

Don’t these numbers sort of undermine the idea of revenge travel? Wouldn’t that show a surge and visitation beyond 2019 levels instead of many places still not being at 2019 levels?

Not by my definition of what revenge travel was. IMO, it meant that a greater percentage of people actually traveling were making emotional decisions instead of their usual modus operandi. So if normally, they would budget $3000 on vacation, and go wherever that budget would get them, in 2022 they picked their destination and if it cost $4K, $5K or more, their family deserved it after the hell of 2020 and 2021. If normally they wouldn't carry a credit card balance, but decided after pandemic carrying a balance for 6 months or less was worth it. Those types of changes. It didn't mean to me, flood gates were opened... people were still limited by their own financial situation, and the recovery has been unequal depending on the security of your housing situation, but more travelers in 2022 were willing to YOLO more than usual.

TLDL: without revenge travel, the numbers would have been farther behind 2019, which is part of what is happening now that people are returning to their decision making norms.

 

[flynnibus]

I understand you're point, but you don't build a major headliner that expensive hoping to hold attendance steady, or at least Disney has never done that in the past. Think about Cars Land, DLP Space Mountain, Tower or Terror, Everest, Harry Potter, all major investments, but with clear results in driving visitation.

GotG may be the worst RoI of any ride in Disney history. That's a problem, especially when the same amount of money could have been spent on any number of other things for the park (either one lump sum, or over time), including investments to boost those other metrics

1) we know Guardians Price tag was absurd.. so let's park that thought
2) you really can't rate Guardians like this in isolation. EPCOT is still a wasteland.. Disney still had these stupid park hopping rules, ride limits and Virtual Queues regulating demand strictly.

I'm pretty sure Disney is cognizant enough to recognize the finite capacity of an attraction plus forward visibility in availability of Virtual Queues will put a wet blanket on the idea of just unbridled attendance clicks. The old measuring stick of 'boosted gate clicks' is not the same.

Meanwhile, Disney has managed to keep every seat 'sold' every day it's operated, and is able to sell out it's premium access. Literally selling every seat they have available. It's a fan favorite. It's been very reliable. The # of available riders and the consequence of VQs being sold out are all known ahead of time. I'm pretty sure by all the expectations they had it's going pretty well.

I think you are operating on different assumptions then they were in terms of measuring success or not.

 

[MJL92]

A huge dropoff for DAK from 2019 to 2022. Was the 2nd most visited park in FL in 2019, dropped all the way to last among the big six last year. Has the Pandora effect worn off? Personally it's my favorite park in Florida, but objectively, there's just not enough to do to warrant a full day. I chaperoned a school trip last April and it was skipped. Normal itinerary is 5 days with one in each Disney park and a hopper day in US/IoA, but last year I was outvoted to skip DAK in favor a second day at Hollywood Studios with all of the newer offerings there. Can't imagine my colleagues are the only ones expressing that thought seeing the latest attendance numbers.

 

[afterabme]

Has DLP improved that much as a park?

 

[MisterPenguin]

A huge dropoff for DAK from 2019 to 2022. Was the 2nd most visited park in FL in 2019, dropped all the way to last among the big six last year. Has the Pandora effect worn off? Personally it's my favorite park in Florida, but objectively, there's just not enough to do to warrant a full day. I chaperoned a school trip last April and it was skipped. Normal itinerary is 5 days with one in each Disney park and a hopper day in US/IoA, but last year I was outvoted to skip DAK in favor a second day at Hollywood Studios with all of the newer offerings there. Can't imagine my colleagues are the only ones expressing that thought seeing the latest attendance numbers.

When the park closed its nighttime entertainment and nighttime ride-hours... it became a half day park again.