News 2021 Theme Index

[Vegas Disney Fan]

The market isn’t solely defined by attendance, no - but it’s a very significant measurement, and it’s tied to a lot of other significant factors like cultural penetration . We are seeing a significant shift in the market at the moment. DL will return to a leading position in the next charts, but if the rest of the rankings remain stable that’s a big - even a seismic shift. As Uni takes a bigger and bigger chunk of WDW tourists, it matters, even if an ossified Disney pretends it doesn’t. It won’t happen next year or even this decade, but this IS how companies that seemed untouchable find themselves losing the dominance they took for granted. If you think Disney would be happy in a world where they make more money in Orlando but Universal pulls as many (or more) guests, you’re nuts.

But are they taking a chunk of Disney tourists or are they expanding the market?

It WDW has ”x” million visitors and makes $x billion and 5 years later they have the same number of visitors and make twice as much profit do they really care if Universal has doubled attendance?

Universal has been steadily increasing attendance but I haven’t noticed any dip in Disney attendance as a result.

 

[el_super]

If you think Disney would be happy in a world where they make more money in Orlando but Universal pulls as many (or more) guests, you’re nuts.

That's about what they have said they want to do. It doesn't seem all that nuts at all. Guests cost money to service, whether they come on a discounted admission or not. The more guests you have, the more you have to spend on new attractions, new entertainment and operating expenses to keep up the service expectations. Service expectations can definitely drop if you have too many people coming through your gates.

Universal isn't any different. If you cram too many people into the parks on discounted admission, you're going to run into problems with guest satisfaction.

 

[Disney Analyst]

But are they taking a chunk of Disney tourists or are they expanding the market?

It WDW has ”x” million visitors and makes $x billion and 5 years later they have the same number of visitors and make twice as much profit do they really care if Universal has doubled attendance?

Universal has been steadily increasing attendance but I haven’t noticed any dip in Disney attendance as a result.

Just to add to your question, there must be crossover, and so perhaps some or many “Disney only” guests are being enticed to add Universal on to their trip? Is Universal taking from Disney, or just gaining more from the existing pool of tourists?

How many are booking an Orlando vacation because of Disney, or because of Universal? How many are going to both? How many are choosing only one?

2020/2021 is still hard to get a true sense, I’ll be interested by the 2022 numbers.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

But are they taking a chunk of Disney tourists or are they expanding the market?

It WDW has ”x” million visitors and makes $x billion and 5 years later they have the same number of visitors and make twice as much profit do they really care if Universal has doubled attendance?

Universal has been steadily increasing attendance but I haven’t noticed any dip in Disney attendance as a result.

Looking at previous reports it appears Universals growth (precovid) didn’t hurt Disneys attendance at all, it’s actually gone up at every park, AK growing even more than the Uni parks.

Attendance - MK, EP, HS, AK (million)

2015 - 20.4, 11.8, 10.9, 10.8
2016 - 20.4, 11.7, 10.7, 10.8
2017 - 20.4, 12.2, 10.7, 12.5
2018 - 20.8, 12.4, 11.3, 13.8
2019 - 20.9, 12.4, 11.5, 13.9

In the same timeframe USF went from 9.6 to 10.8, IOA went from 8.8 to 10.4.

 

[Casper Gutman]

But are they taking a chunk of Disney tourists or are they expanding the market?

It WDW has ”x” million visitors and makes $x billion and 5 years later they have the same number of visitors and make twice as much profit do they really care if Universal has doubled attendance?

Universal has been steadily increasing attendance but I haven’t noticed any dip in Disney attendance as a result.

Uni is both expanding the market and taking tourists from WDW. Remember, Disney has based their entire strategy for over a decade on the conviction that the market CAN’T be expanded - they spent billions and redesigned their entire resort on this premise even as Uni proved again and again it was nonsense. That kind of deep, long-term committal to a provably false idea is just the sort of thing failing companies do.

And yes, if Uni is constantly growing attendance and Disney isn’t, it’s a huge deal. For one thing, the media empires are now IP silos dependent on long-term loyalty to certain entertainment brands. The theme parks are one of the most visible measures of this devotion. Disneys strength in audience brand loyalty has long been unparalleled, not just among entertainment corporations but among ALL corporations. If we continue to see Uni gain park audience share, that’s a huge upheaval to that order, taken for granted for decade. What happens when the trip to Uni becomes the generational rite of passage?

 

[Scuttle]

Bob Paycheck is going to realize soon that this business model of fewer guests higher spending is going to fail.

 

[lazyboy97o]

But are they taking a chunk of Disney tourists or are they expanding the market?

It WDW has ”x” million visitors and makes $x billion and 5 years later they have the same number of visitors and make twice as much profit do they really care if Universal has doubled attendance?

Universal has been steadily increasing attendance but I haven’t noticed any dip in Disney attendance as a result.

Universal continuing to grow the market demonstrates that Disney fundamentally misunderstands the market. Universal is doing something Disney thought impossible.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

Universal continuing to grow the market demonstrates that Disney fundamentally misunderstands the market. Universal is doing something Disney thought impossible.

That I completely agree with, but so far that growth hasn’t hurt Disney at all, they’ve perhaps even benefited from it.

Whether that holds true with all Chapek and Co’s horrible changes remains to be seen but so far attendance has grown at all the parks, including Disney (pre-Covid).

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think this is the most accurate post in the thread.

Disneys sole focus is money, they could easily grow attendance by expanding the parks or lowering prices but they’ve shown they’re more concerned with maximizing guest spend with their existing capacity rather than expanding capacity.

Actually…predictably…it’s a rudimentary take that doesn’t fit their goals.

They are concerned with 1. Per guest spending and 1A. Market share.

How much are you sucking out…and how many are potentially to suck.

Both are integral to their philosophy. Because the “they want to reduce attendance was a lie for PR spin and won’t be followed in business practices”

Other people going elsewhere is money left on the table.

Read chapter 8 before next week’s lesson, kids.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Universal continuing to grow the market demonstrates that Disney fundamentally misunderstands the market. Universal is doing something Disney thought impossible.

Say it, REVEREND!!

 

[el_super]

Universal continuing to grow the market demonstrates that Disney fundamentally misunderstands the market. Universal is doing something Disney thought impossible.

By what metric are we ready to declare that Universal is growing the market? All the parks are still under their 2019 numbers right? That means there are still groups of likely/potential visitors that are not going. International visitors that haven't resumed travel, people still concerned with COVID and health restrictions, faltering global economies... If anything the market between 2021 and 2019 shrunk considerably.

 

[mightynine]

If you think Disney would be happy in a world where they make more money in Orlando but Universal pulls as many (or more) guests, you’re nuts.

I might be a little bit nuts then, because I think they would be quite fine with that.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

By what metric are we ready to declare that Universal is growing the market? All the parks are still under their 2019 numbers right? That means there are still groups of likely/potential visitors that are not going. International visitors that haven't resumed travel, people still concerned with COVID and health restrictions, faltering global economies... If anything the market between 2021 and 2019 shrunk considerably.

Divide to take visitors by the whole and your get market share. Disney has larger numbers, more parks, but the market shares has ticked down a bit since Comcast took over. Also aided by the blackfish scandal for AB parks.

That number will continue to move some when epic universe opens…because the bobs have no response. Too late in the game.

Math is fun.

 

[Floydian]

The 2021 TEA/AECOM Theme Index is now available.

Theme & Museum Index

The TEA/AECOM Theme Index and Museum Index is a collaboration of the Themed Entertainment Association (TEA) and the economics practice at AECOM, a global provider of technical-professional and management-support services. This calendar-year study of globa

www.teaconnect.org

Not today they didn't, at least not at Epcot. I haven't seen crowds like that on a weekday since school started up again. I thought maybe it was a holiday that I had forgotten about, but then I remembered that my pass wouldn't let me into the park if it was.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I might be a little bit nuts then, because I think they would be quite fine with that.

Wall Street would react to that as a loss in potential revenue that they can pump up the stock price with.

Leaving money on the table is never acceptable. Watch it play.

 

[el_super]

Divide to take visitors by the whole and your get market share.

Yeah but in a year when the overall market is down, that people prioritized the cheaper alternative shouldn't be all that surprising.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yeah but in a year when the overall market is down, that people prioritized the cheaper alternative shouldn't be all that surprising.

Universal is not cheaper for most day visitors

But the year is down. We’ll have to compare 2022 totals next year to 2019 to see if there’s any shift?

 

[mightynine]

Wall Street would react to that as a loss in potential revenue that they can pump up the stock price with.

Leaving money on the table is never acceptable. Watch it play.

Oh, I agree. But couldn't Disney just say the numbers are inaccurate? After all, the theme park index is a guess at best. Who would Wall Street believe more?

 

[wdwfan4ver]

Universal has been steadily increasing attendance but I haven’t noticed any dip in Disney attendance as a result.

I have an answer for you. I stayed at Universal deluxe hotel back in late August and I saw something. When guests were checking out, they guests had Disney merchandise. Those people get merchandise from Disney store shops, Disney Springs, or the theme parks. I don't know where those people went, but going to WDW isn't out of the answer for those guests due to it making sense for people want to go different theme parks in the Orlando area.

I can't answer answer how long this has happened since late August was my first time to Universal. I don't know if the same thing has happen with other Universal hotels. The thing is when Epic Universe opens guests will have to give up a vacation date if they want to go to Epic Universe. What I mean by give up a day is not the locals, but the people outside of Florida. People are limited in how many days of vacation they have in a year in the United States.

What I know Is Universal Studios Florida has an attraction that is suppose to open sometime next year and that is enough time to work on USF or IOA more due to how fast Universal completes lands.

 

[Jrb1979]

Yeah but in a year when the overall market is down, that people prioritized the cheaper alternative shouldn't be all that surprising.

I don't know about that. I do wonder if a lot of it has do with the amount of Disney fans that decided to give Universal a chance. This past I have seen more posts from Disney loyalists asking how to plan a Universal trip.