2021 Box Office Tracking

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Deadline has released its industry projections for Jungle Cruise. I am going to start posting the articles that feature Disney-owned movies from now on.
  • $25 million domestic opening
  • $40 million international opening
  • $65 global start
Given how we’ve seen Disney+ Premier siphon ticket sales with Black Widow in its initial Friday-to-Saturday decline and second weekend drop, industry estimates are conservative heading into the weekend for Jungle Cruise at around $25M domestic at 4,200+ theaters –the widest to date– and another $40M abroad for a $65M global start.

The Jaume Collet-Serra directed film opens in major international markets starting today with France and Italy, then adds Germany, Russia, Australia, Japan, Korea, Brazil, Mexico, Spain and the UK through Friday, as well as the Middle East and some other smaller hubs. This is essentially the same suite in which Black Widow debuted earlier this month — and the same rules apply with the film being available on Disney+ Premier in markets where the service operates ($29.99 in the U.S.).

Full article here:

 

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Jungle Cruise has made $2.7 million from Thursday night. That is pretty good when comparing it to other Disney live-action films. Let's take a look at the Disney live-action films in the past 5 years and their Thursday night previews.
  1. Beauty and the Beast ($16.3 million)
  2. Aladdin ($7 million)
  3. POTC: Dead Man Tell No Tales ($5.5 million)
  4. Jungle Cruise ($2.7 million)
  5. Dumbo ($2.6 million)
  6. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil ($2.3 million)
  7. Christopher Robin ($1.5 million)
  8. Cruella ($1.4 million)
  9. Wrinkle In Time ($1.3 million)
  10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms ($625k)
As you can see, Jungle Cruise is well above a lot of the other recent live-action films and probably would have done even better in better situations. It will be interesting to see how this weekend will play out as the film is also available on Disney+ Premier Access. Deadline and The Hollywood Reporter have their projections at a $25 million opening weekend domestically, while Variety has their projections at "north of $30 million".

 

Magenta Panther

Well-Known Member
Jungle Cruise has made $2.7 million from Thursday night. That is pretty good when comparing it to other Disney live-action films. Let's take a look at the Disney live-action films in the past 5 years and their Thursday night previews.
  1. Beauty and the Beast ($16.3 million)
  2. Aladdin ($7 million)
  3. POTC: Dead Man Tell No Tales ($5.5 million)
  4. Jungle Cruise ($2.7 million)
  5. Dumbo ($2.6 million)
  6. Maleficent: Mistress of Evil ($2.3 million)
  7. Christopher Robin ($1.5 million)
  8. Cruella ($1.4 million)
  9. Wrinkle In Time ($1.3 million)
  10. The Nutcracker and the Four Realms ($625k)
As you can see, Jungle Cruise is well above a lot of the other recent live-action films and probably would have done even better in better situations. It will be interesting to see how this weekend will play out as the film is also available on Disney+ Premier Access. Deadline and The Hollywood Reporter have their projections at a $25 million opening weekend domestically, while Variety has their projections at "north of $30 million".

The flick cost 200 million to make, NOT counting advertising.

It's already a bomb.
 

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
The flick cost 200 million to make, NOT counting advertising.

It's already a bomb.
Well, my post wasn't really meant to be interpreted as it showing that it will or will not turn a profit. It was more that Jungle Cruise is making more money than titles (except Cruella) that weren't on Premier Access in just Thursday night previews. I can see how it could be interpreted that way, but that wasn't really my intention.
 

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
It was a good weekend at the box office with some pretty good numbers. Jungle Cruise was able to easily take the top spot with a domestic estimated total of $34.2 million. This blew the $25 million projections out of the water and was able to even pass the $30 million projections that came out Friday afternoon. Its international numbers are a bit underwhelming as the prediction was $40 million and the movie only churned out $27.6 million overseas. Disney+ also played a huge role in Jungle Cruise's success as $30+ million total came from Premier Access alone. While that amount barely accounts for any Disney+ subscribers, it is still showing that Disney+ is doing something. A24's The Green Knight also overperformed as it took spot #2 with a weekend total of $6.78 million. Kind of an OT fun fact is that the director of The Green Knight, David Lowery, is directing the upcoming Peter Pan & Wendy for Disney+ which comes out next year. Now for some harsh numbers as Old fell 60% in its second weekend to #3 which translates to a weekend total of $6.76 million. Snake Eyes completely fell out of the top 5 as it fell a terrible 70% in just its second weekend. Moving back into the top 5 where Black Widow continues to make some cash. Black Widow is at #4 this weekend with a weekend total of $6.09 million. The new movie Stillwater rounded out the top 5 with a solid $5.1 million opening.

As for Disney's other 3 movies, they are still making some cash. Cruella made a weekend total of $301k in 235 theaters. Raya and the Last Dragon made $26k in just 30 theaters after 22 weekends in theaters and 8 weekends of being free on Disney+. Luca numbers are not out at the moment, but the post will be updated when they are.

The Suicide Squad hits theaters and HBOMax both on Thursday night. It will be interesting to see how it does as Warner Brothers is now the only major studio with a day and date release still in play for their future films.

1. Jungle Cruise (Dis) 4,310 theaters, Fri $13.378M/Sat $12.2M/Sun $8.5M/3-day $34.2M/Wk 1

2. The Green Knight (A24) 2,790 theaters (-25)/Fri $2.878M/3-day $6.78M Wk 1

3. Old (Uni) 3,379 theaters (+24), Fri $2.1M (-70%)/Sat $2.65M/Sun $1.99M/3-day $6.76M (-60%)/Total: $30.6M/Wk 2

4. Black Widow (Dis) 3,360 theaters (-890)/Fri $1.9M (-46%)/Sat $2.6M/Sun $1.9M/3-day $6.4M (-45%)/Total $167M/Wk 4

5. Stillwater (Foc) 2,531 theaters, Fri $1.85M/Sat $1.92M/Sun $1.35M/3-day $5.12M/ Wk 1

6. Space Jam 2 (WB) 3,501 (-501) Fri $1.34M (-57%)/Sat $1.67M/Sun $1.26M/3-day $4.265M (-55%)/Total $60.7M/Wk 3

7. Snake Eyes (Par) 3,540 (+19) Fri $1.19M/Sat $1.6M/Sun $1.19M/3-day: $4M (-70%)/Total $22.2M/Wk 2

8. F9 (Uni) 2,348 (-502) theaters Fri $760K/Sat $1.06M/Sun $830K/3-day: $2.65M (-45%)/Total $168.5M/Wk 6

9. Escape Room 2 (Sony) 2,086 (-729) Fri $670K/Sat $860K/Sun $670K 3-day $2.2M (-37%)/Total: $20.55M/Wk 3

10. Baby Boss 2 (Uni) 1,865 (-908) theaters Fri $400K/Sat $510K/Sun $390K/3-day $1.3M (-55%)/Total: $53.4M/Wk 5


 

Magenta Panther

Well-Known Member
You obviously have no idea that we are in the middle of a pandemic and that the metric of how successful a movie is has changed. 🙄

Actually I am well aware of the pandemic, duh, and news flash, the metric of success for a movie has NOT changed. Money is the ONLY metric of success that matters to Hollywood. That has not changed and never will. And that, BTW, has nothing to do with whether or not you liked the movie. It is not a commentary on your taste. If you liked Jungle Cruise, fine. I liked Treasure Planet, but I also acknowledge that it flopped. So it goes...
 

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
It was a slightly disappointing weekend at the box office with the latest blockbuster failing to do big numbers at the box office. The Suicide Squad made a disappointing $26.5 million in its opening weekend. The film underperformed most likely due to a limited audience with the hard-R rating and it being available on HBOMax for free. On the other hand, Disney should be having a small celebration for Jungle Cruise’s second weekend which was an impressive 55% drop that translates to $15.7 million. Yes, that percentage is a tiny bit high, but with movies like Black Widow, Space Jam 2, and Snake Eyes all falling around 70% in their second weekend, Jungle Cruise definitely had the better fall of the most recent blockbusters and crossed the $100 million mark worldwide. Old took spot #3 with a $4.1 million weekend total. Black Widow continues its run in the top 5 at #4 this week with a weekend total of $4 million. Black Widow is now the highest grossing film domestically. Stillwater took spot #5 with a weekend total of $2.86 million.

As for Disney’s 3 other films, they are all making some cash. Cruella suffered a very harsh fall of 74% with a weekend total of $90k in 148 theatres. Raya and the Last Dragon made $19k in 24 theaters. Luca numbers are not out yet, but I will edit the post when they are.

This Friday is very crowded with three wide releases. The first is 20th Century’s Free Guy, the second is the Aretha Franklin biopic Respect, and Sony’s Don’t Breathe 2.

1. The Suicide Squad (WB) 4,002 theaters, Fri $12.1M, 3-day: $26.5M/Wk 1

2. Jungle Cruise (Dis) 4,310 theaters, Fri $4.46M (-67%)/ Sat $6.67M/Sun $4.55M/ 3-day $15.69M (-55%)/Total: $65.3M/Wk 2

3. Old (Uni) 3,138 theaters (-241), Fri $1.2M (-44%)/Sat $1.67M/$1.26M/3-day $4.1M (-40%)/Total: $38.5M/Wk 3

4. Black Widow (Dis) 3,100 theaters (-260)/Fri $1.2M/Sat $1.66M/Sun $1.16M/ 3-day $4M (-38%)/Total $174.3M/Wk 5

5. Stillwater (Foc) 2,611 theaters (+80), Fri $770K (-59%)/Sat $1.22M/ Sun $870K/3-day $2.86M (-45%)/Total: $10M/ Wk 2

6. The Green Knight (A24) 2,798 theaters (+8) Fri $760K (-74%)/Sat $1M/ Sun $816K/3-day $2.59M (-62%)/Total $12.1M/Wk 2

7. Space Jam 2 (WB) 2,869 theaters (-632) 3-day $2.475M (-43%)/Total $65.6M/Wk 4

8. Snake Eyes (Par) 2,080 theaters (-1,460) Fri $450K/Sat $675K/Sun $500K/3-day $1.625M (-60%)/Total $26M/Wk 3

9. Escape Room 2 (Sony) 1,303 theaters (-783)Fri $405K /Sat $510K/Sun $335K/3-day $1.25M (-44%)/Total $23M/Wk 4

10. F9 (Uni) 1,715 theaters (-633) Fri $320K/Sat $520K/Sun $390K/3-day $1.23M (-54%)/Total $171M/Wk 7


 

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
20th Century's first movie this year, Free Guy, will be released tonight with 6pm showings hitting 4,100 theaters across the country. Deadline doesn't have any solid predictions with Free Guy, so they are saying a $20+ million domestic opening weekend could happen but isn't the most likely total. It is also worth noting that this is Disney's first theatrical only release of the year. Free Guy and Shang-Chi will be the real test to see if this theatrical-only model is more successful than doing the day and date release.

 

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Free Guy has earned $2.2 million in Thursday night previews. While this is lower than Jungle Cruise's $2.7 million (a day and date release), it is still a solid number. Deadline is saying that the film having an opening weekend of $20+ million is much more likely. Deadline does point out that some industry people are keeping their predictions in the teens still, but those could change throughout the weekend.


In other news, Venom: Let There Be Carnage moved to October 15. Yes, this isn't a Disney film, but I thought I'd mention it as release dates are still shifting around due to the pandemic. Now there are only 5 wide releases in September compared to the 13 wide releases in October.

 

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
We have something to cheer for as Free Guy over-performed greatly! Free Guy was able to beat low expectations and open with an amazingly solid $28.4 million domestically and $50.9 million worldwide. The film is a good sign that theatrical only releases are not a totally bad idea. While the numbers aren't big as non-pandemic numbers, it does give some hope for Marvel's Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings which had some slightly low long-range expectations come out on Friday. With a sequel announcement and some amazing audience scores (95% Audience Score on Rotten Tomatoes, "A" CinemaScore), Free Guy sure looks like it will have some legs before its 45-day window is up. As for other movies in the top 5, Don't Breathe 2 took the #2 spot with an opening weekend total of $10.6 million. Jungle Cruise continued to stay in the top 3 earning a weekend total of $9 million falling 43%. Jungle Cruise is currently sitting at $82.1 domestically and $154.3 million worldwide. With Jungle Cruise getting these numbers, it is guaranteed to hit $100 million domestically in the next 2 weeks and maybe even $200 million worldwide. Respect took spot #4 with an opening weekend of $8.8 million. Deadline points out that the target audience for this movie is the demographic that is least likely to go out to the theater which is why its opening numbers aren't the best. This brings concern for award contenders as the older crowd is just not showing up for these types of movies. The Suicide Squad rounded out the top 5 with a weekend total of $7.7 million. This translates to a 70% fall which is sadly becoming a new normal for some of these big blockbusters.

As for Disney's 4 other movies, they continue to make some money in theaters. Black Widow made $2 million this weekend at the box office as it slowly chugs to the $400 million worldwide mark. Black Widow still needs a release date from China which should be coming soon. To put it in perspective, Spider-Man: Homecoming, which opened around the same time as Black Widow, didn't open in China till early September. Cruella is starting to slow down it's run with a weekend total of $47k from 95 theaters in only its 12th weekend. Raya and the Last Dragon is starting to finish its theatraical run as it made $3k in 10 theaters in its 24th weekend. Luca numbers are not the most accesible to figure out since it is only international and it isn't a recent film, but with it hitting China this Friday, we should get an updated number. Side note, Disney overall has hit $1 billion this year!

As for this Friday, it is very crowded with FOUR new wide releases. The Night House will be released by the Disney-owned Searchlight Pictures. Predictions will be out Wednesday and I will make sure to post here. Other competition includes Lionsgate's The Protege, Warner Brothers' Reminiscence, and Paramount's Paw Patrol: The Movie. The last two movies will be available on HBOMax and Paramount+, respectively.


1. Free Guy (20th/Dis) 4,164 theaters Fri $10.5M (includes $2.2M previews)/Sat $10.3M/Sun $7.6M/ 3-day $28.4M/Wk 1

2. Don’t Breathe 2 3,005 theaters (Sony/SG) Fri $4.3M (includes $965K previews)/Sat $3.65M/Sun $2.56M/3-day $10.6M/Wk 1

3. Jungle Cruise (Dis) 3,900 theaters (-410), Fri $2.55M (-43%)/Sat $3.9M/$2.55M/ 3-day $9M (-43%)/Total $82.1M/Wk 3

4. Respect (MGM/UAR) 3,207 theaters Fri $3.6M (includes $650K previews)/Sat $3M/Sun $2.2M/3-day $8.8M/Wk 1

5. The Suicide Squad (WB) 4,019 (+17) Fri $2.2M (-81%)/3-day $7.75M (-70%)/Total $42.9M/Wk 2

6. Old (Uni) 2,631 (-507) Fri $710K/Sat $990K/Sun $700K, 3-day: $2.4M (-42%)/Total $43M/Wk 4

7. Black Widow (Dis) 2,060 (-1,040) theaters Fri $569K/Sat $846K/Sun $585K/3-day $2M (-49%)/Total $178.1M/Wk 6

8. Stillwater (Foc) 2,179 (-432) theaters Fri $380K/Sat $560K/Sun $360K/3-day $1.3M (-54%)/Total $12.5M/Wk 3

9. The Green Knight (A24) 1,784 (-1,014) theaters Fri $344K/Sat $455K/Sun $364K/3-day $1.16M (-55%)/Total $14.7M/Wk 3

10. Space Jam: A New Legacy (WB) 1,841 (-1,028) theaters/3-day $1.115M (-54%)/Total $68M/Wk 5



 

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
The Night House is predicted to open somewhere between $2 million-$3 million in 2,150 theaters. Deadline points out that the older crowd is the target audience for the film. The older crowd has not been showing up to support movies. With the older crowd target and it being a horror movie, I would say this film will be debut on the lower end of those predictions.

As for Free Guy, it is set to fall a solid 50% in its second weekend. This is very nice for a blockbuster like this showing that it will most likely have some strong holds througout the next few weeks.

Deadline has also released their long-range prediction for Shang-Chi. Deadline is pegging Shang-Chi's 4-day opening at $45 million. This would be the biggest opening weekend for Labor Day weekend.

All three of these films will have a 45-day theatrical window.

 

Ripken10

Well-Known Member
This may be relevant to world wide box office eventually (I posted in another thread but thought worth posting here too):

The blackout on Hollywood films in China has ended. Disney/Pixar’s Luca, which went straight to Disney+ in the U.S. in June, is opening in China this weekend, making it the first American film to release there in over two months. While the recent slate of blockbusters is still unscheduled in China, Luca’s release is a welcome sight.
 

Jedijax719

Well-Known Member
I can't see how theaters will be able to remain open in some states much longer. In Texas and Florida (and most southern states) it is in no way remotely safe to go to the theaters.
 

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
It was a mixed weekend for Disney-Fox as Free Guy posted some terrific numbers and The Night House did not. Free Guy fell only 34% in its second weekend! That is amazing for a blockbuster like this. This is also the smallest second-weekend drop for a wide release this summer. Free Guy currently sits at $58.8 million domestically and $111.9 million worldwide. If it continues the small drops, it will become possible for the film to hit the $100 million mark. Paw Patrol: The Movie gathered $13 million in its opening weekend even with a free streaming option on Paramount+. Jungle Cruise took spot #3 with a weekend total of $6.7 million. The film currently sits at $92.4 million domestically and $173.7 million worldwide. The film could hit $100 million domestically by next weekend. Don't Breathe 2 and Respect took spots #4 and #5, respectively, as both films fell in the 50s in their second weekend.

As for Disney's 5 other films in the market, they are all just trying to rake up some little cash before the summer movie season ends in 2 weeks. The Night House opened at #8 this weekend with an opening weekend of $2.8 million. Yes, that was where it was predicted to open, but it is still not that great of a number. Reasons for this could include the crowded market and the target audience not wanting to go to the theaters. Black Widow made $1.1 million in its 7th weekend bringing the domestic total to $180.2 million. Sadly, it looks like the film won't be able to reach the $200 million mark. Cruella made an estimated $61k in its 13th weekend from only 80 theaters. Cruella currently sits at $85.9 domestic and around $222 million worldwide. Raya and the Last Dragon has finished its run after 24 weekends in theaters. The animated film made $54.7 million domestically and $122.6 million worldwide! Luca made $5 million in China in its opening weekend. That’s solid for a Pixar movie. Deadline didn’t give a total for the film, but it should be around $30 million.

As for next week, there will be only one wide release. Universal will release Candyman from director Nia DaCosta. DaCosta is directing The Marvels so go check it out if you are interested in seeing what her directing style is.

1. Free Guy (20th/Dis) 4,165 theaters Fri $5.2M/Sat $8M/Sun $5.6M/3-day $18.8M (-34%)/Total: $58.8M/Wk 2

2. Paw Patrol (Par/Spin) 3,184 theaters Fri $4.5M/Sat $4.95M/Sun $3.5M/3-day $13M/Wk 1

3. Jungle Cruise (Dis) 3,575 (-325) theaters, Fri $1.7M (-34%)/Sat $2.8M/Sun $1.7M/3-day $6.2M (-31%)/Total $92.5M/Wk 4

4. Don’t Breathe 2 3,005 theaters (Sony/SG) Fri $1.5M/Sat $2.1M/Sun $1.4M/3-day $5.05M (-53%)/Total: $19.7M/ Wk 2

5. Respect (MGM/UAR) 3,207 theaters Fri $1.08M (-70%)/Sat $1.55M/Sun $1.17M/3-day $3.8M (-57%)/Total $15.8M/Wk 2

6. The Suicide Squad (WB) 2,926 (-1,093) theaters Fri $980K/Sat $1.4M/Sun $1M/3-day: $3.4M (-54%) /Total $49.2M/Wk 3

7. The Protege (LG) 2,577 theaters Fri $1.1M/Sat $1M/Sun $767K/3-day $2.93M/Wk 1

8. The Night House (Sea) 2,240 theaters Fri $1.08M/Sat $1.06M/Sun $737K/3-day $2.869M/Wk 1

9. Reminiscence (WB) 3,265 theaters Fri $680K/Sat $755K/Sun $565K/3-day $2M/Wk 1

10. Old (Uni) 1,547 (-1,084) theaters/Fri $330K (-54%)/Sat $490K/Sun $320K/3-day $1.14M (-52%)/Total $45.1M/Wk 5



 
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Jedijax719

Well-Known Member
Jungle Cruise almost at $100 million with a PA release and everything going on with COVID? I would NEVER have believed that for a minute! That's actually very impressive!
 

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
It was a spectacular weekend at the box office with many wins for some major studios. Universal won the weekend with Nia DaCosta's Candyman. The film had a $22.4 million opening weekend which is ahead of the high-teens expectations. With Candyman being Certified Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes and this stellar opening, The Marvels is shaping up to be a great movie! Free Guy took the #2 spot with an impressive hold of 27%. The film also opened in China this weekend with an impressive $23.9 million. This film has now gathered $79.3 million domestically and $179.6 million worldwide. Free Guy is most likely guaranteed to cross $100 million domestically and $200 million worldwide. Speaking of the century mark, Jungle Cruise inched past the $100 million mark making it the 4th movie this summer and the 5th movie this year to achieve this status. Jungle Cruise currently sits at $100.1 million domestically and $187 million globally. The film could reach the $200 million mark, but it would most likely need that release date from China.

Let's looks at Disney's 4 other movies in the marketplace. First, we have The Night House which fell 57% in its second weekend. Not surprising since it's a horror movie. However, since it opened small, the drop should have been a bit lower. The Night House has a total of $5.1 million. Black Widow was able to slip back into the top 10 at #10 making $855k in its 8th weekend. Lastly, Cruella had a solid hold of 21% in its 14th weekend making only $47k. This is very nice as Cruella became available for free on Disney+ this weekend showing that there is still demand to see it in theaters. Luca made $2.2 million this weekend internationally bringing its total to $42 million worldwide.

As for this Friday, it's the moment everyone has been waiting for. Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings hits theatres! Right now, projections are put at $45 million for the 4-day total. However, this could change throughout the week. Stay tuned for Wednesday when the final predictions are released. The film opens in France, Korea, and Italy this Wednesday.

1. Candyman (Uni) 3,569 theaters Fri $9.1M/Sat $7.78M/Sun $5.4M/ 3-day $22.37M/Wk 1

2. Free Guy (Dis/20th) 3,940 (-225) theaters Fri $3.6M (-31%)/Sat $6M/Sun $4M/3-day $13.55M (-27%)/Total $79.3M/Wk 3

3. Paw Patrol (Par) 3,189 (+5) theaters Fri $1.75M (-61%)/Sat $2.86M/Sun $2M/3-day $6.6M (-50%)/Total $24M/Wk 2

4. Jungle Cruise (Dis) 3,370 (-205) theaters Fri $1.3M (-26%)/Sat $2.2M/Sun $1.4M/3-day $5M (-21%)/Total $100.1M/Wk 5

5. Don’t Breathe 2 (Sony) 2,703 (-302) theaters Fri $805K/Sat $1.2M/Sun $785K/3-day $2.8M (-45%)/Total: $24.6M/Wk 3

6. Respect (UAR) 2,607 (-600) theaters Fri $629K (-42%)/Sat $965K/Sun $675K/3-day $2.269M (-40%)/Total $19.7M/Wk 3

7. The Suicide Squad (WB) 2,436 (-490) theaters, 3-day $2M (-40%)/Total $52.8M/Wk 4

8. The Protege (LG) 2,577 theaters Fri $484K/Sat $689K/Sun $477K/3-day $1.65M (-43%)/Total: $5.7M/Wk 2

9. Night House (Sea) 2,250 theaters Fri $354K/Sat $511K/Sun $353K/3-day $1.2M (-58%)/Total $5.1M/Wk 2

10. Black Widow (Dis) 1,050 (-290) theaters Fri $227K/Sat $382K/Sun $246K/3-day $855K (-23%)/Total $181.5M/Wk 8





 
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