2021 Box Office Tracking

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
Captain Marvel 2. It got renamed to The Marvels back in May since its going to feature Captain Marvel, Ms. Marvel, and Monica Rambeau. Nia DaCosta is directing The Marvels, and she is getting major buzz right now for her directing and visual style on Candyman.
Ah, that's the connection. Wondering why it was mentioned.
 

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Deadline is reporting a $45M-$50M domestic opening and a $90M+ worldwide opening for Shang-Chi. This would make it the highest labor day (4-day weekend) opening ever for a movie that weekend. With no competition for most of September, the film should stay #1 for the next few weeks. Shang-Chi opens tomorrow night domestically starting at 6PM.


In other non-Disney news, 2021 has lost 2 more releases with Jackass Forever and Top Gun: Maverick both being delayed to 2022. Ghostbusters: Afterlife now comes out a week later taking over Top Gun's spot (November 19, 2021).

 
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NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Shang-Chi's Thursday night numbers are in! Shang-Chi made $8.8 million in Thursday night previews. This is above F9's $7.1 million but below Black Widow's $13.2 million. However, Shang-Chi is now projected to open around $60M-$65M this weekend! This is very nice compared to the low expectations from just a few days ago. This gives hope that big blockbusters like Venom 2, Eternals, No Way Home, The Matrix 4, etc will keep their intended release dates and not get pushed back to 2022.

 

Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
Shang-Chi's Thursday night numbers are in! Shang-Chi made $8.8 million in Thursday night previews. This is above F9's $7.1 million but below Black Widow's $13.2 million. However, Shang-Chi is now projected to open around $60M-$65M this weekend! This is very nice compared to the low expectations from just a few days ago. This gives hope that big blockbusters like Venom 2, Eternals, No Way Home, The Matrix 4, etc will keep their intended release dates and not get pushed back to 2022.


So happy the film is doing well!
 

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Wow! Shang-Chi is doing spectacular! I am going to wait till tomorrow to do the overall post with the chart as it seems like the numbers keep shifting higher and higher. Plus, as the article states, the industry's projections for the 4-day and Disney's projection for the 4-day weekend have a bit of a gap in between them.

"Who says that people don’t go to the movies over Labor Day weekend? And who says American audiences are hesitant about going to the movies? Hollywood, it’s time to re-think your game plan about the theatrical release schedule. It doesn’t look like Vax cards policing at any movie theaters prevented anyone from going to Shang-Chi and the Legend of Ten Rings as Disney continued to exercise a theatrical window post Free Guy taking their Marvel Shang-Chi and The Legend of Ten Rings to the second best-3 day of the pandemic with $71.4M, behind Disney/Marvel’s Black Widow ($80.3M) and ahead of F9‘s $70M. The 4-day per industry estimates is expected to be $89.2M. Disney is reporting $83.5M for the four-days."

 

Jedijax719

Well-Known Member
Absolutely amazing!

It is poised to be closer to $75 million for the actual 3-day weekend and a minimum of $90 million for the 4-day weekend.

It's OW reminds me of Aladdin's surprise opening weekend in 2019. The big difference, of course, is that SC has both the critic and audience score to push it. But Aladdin had the summer.

SC has $200 million domestic easily and could very well do it by the time it is scheduled to be out on streaming. The big question I have is whether they will postpone the streaming release due to such great numbers. But I did some math using Boxoffice mojo and it seems that all or most of the MCU (and SW for that matter since I did both) had around 95% of its box office run by its 7th week. The two exceptions (which are important comparisons to SC) are Iron Man, Guardians of the Galaxy, and Black Panther. But even those 3 had at least 92 o 93% by their 7th weekends).
 
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NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Summer Movie Season has ended with a bang! Shang-Chi and the Legend of Ten Rings has closed 2021's summer movie season with an astonishing $90 million 4-day opening weekend. This easily breaks the record for the best Labor Day opening weekend which was previously held by Halloween (2007) which gathered $30 million in its 4-day weekend. Did Marvel/Disney just create a new spot for big blockbusters? It looks like they did, and a studio might snag it up very soon after this amazing opening weekend. In my opinion, Indiana Jones 5 would work great here as it would get away from another major blockbuster, Black Adam. Back to Shang-Chi and the future of movies, this gives hope that major blockbusters coming in the next few months will keep their respective release dates. However, Shang-Chi's second-weekend drop will play a big factor in the release date shiftings as this movie could be front-loaded and suffer a 70% or more drop in just its second weekend. Another factor to keep an eye out for is if only Marvel can open with these types of numbers. The next big test will be No Time to Die in early October as the Bond franchise is still popular today. Lastly, Shang-Chi will most likely hit $100 million before next weekend hits with Free Guy following.

Let's look at Disney's 5 other movies out around the world. Free Guy was in spot #3 this weekend with a 4-day total of $11.2 million. Like I stated earlier, Free Guy is looking to hit $100 million this weekend if it has a drop of less than 30%. Meanwhile, its international box office is doing amazing as the movie has gathered $147.7 million internationally leading to a global total of $239.2 million. Jungle Cruise was at #5 this weekend with a 4-day total of $5.2 million. The flick is so close to hitting $200 million worldwide and should be able to cross it next weekend. Black Widow was at #9 this weekend and only fell 9% thanks to some drive-ins doing double features of Shang-Chi and Black Widow. The Night House rounded out the top 10 at spot #10 with a 4-day total of $647k. Cruella made $43k in 55 theaters on its 15th weekend.

Now that summer movie season is over, we head into horror and awards season where plenty of award contenders and Halloween-themed flicks get released. This Friday, Warner Brothers releases James Wan's new horror pic, Malignant in theaters and on HBOMax.

Side note before the chart: I am updating the 3rd placeholder post today so stay tuned for that!

1.) Shang-Chi and the Legend of Ten Rings (Dis) 4,300 theaters Fri $29.6M/Sat $23.2M/Sun $22.7M/Mon $14.5M/3-day $75.5M/4-day $90M/Wk 1

2.) Candyman (Uni) 3,569 theaters Fri $2.8M/Sat $3.9M/Sun $3.4M/Mon $2.58M/3-day $10.2M (-53%)/4-day: $12.8M/Total $41.3M/Wk 2

3.) Free Guy (20th/Dis) 3,885 theaters (-55) Fri $2.1M/Sat $3.2M/Sun $3.4M/Mon $2.45M/3-day $8.78M (-34%)/4-day $11.2M/Total $94.3M/Wk 4

4.) Paw Patrol (Par) 3,004 theaters (-185) Fri $975K/Sat $1.54M/Sun $1.49M/Mon $1.195M/3-day $4M (-40%)/4-day $5.215M/Total $31.5M/Wk 3

5.) Jungle Cruise (Dis) 3,075 (-295) theaters Fri $885K/Sat $1.55M/Sun $1.57M/Mon $1.186M/3-day $4M (-20%)/4-day $5.2M/Total: $106.9M/Wk 6

6.) Don’t Breathe 2 (Sony) 2176 (-527)/Fri $600K/Sat $865K/Sun $785K/Mon $515K/3-day $2.25M (-21%)/4-day $2.765M/Total $28.5M/Wk 4

7.) Respect (UAR) 2,107 (-500) theaters Fri $313K/Sat $464k/Sun $458K/Mon $343k/3-day $1.235M (-45%)/4-day $1.57M/Total $22.2M/Wk 4

8.) The Suicide Squad (WB) 1,561 (-875) theaters/Fri $230K/Sat $355K/Sun $327K/Mon $220K/3-day $912K (-54%)/4-day $1.132M/Total $54.6M/Wk 5

9.) Black Widow (Dis) 750 (-300) theaters Fri $185K/Sat $264K/Sun $263K/Mon $181K/3-day $712K (-9%)/4-day $893K/Total $182.6M/Wk 9

10.) Night House (Sea) 1,020 (-1,220) theaters Fri $140K/Sat $195K/Sun $195K/Mon $144K/3-day $530K (-56%)/4-day $674K/Total $6.4M/Wk 3


 
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NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Another update already?! Yes, it looks like studios are already reacting to this news as now the real test to see if other studios can pull these numbers will be Venom: Let There Be Carnage. The Sony blockbuster will now open October 1st, heading up against The Addams Family 2 and The Many Saints of Newark, after the amazing numbers Shang-Chi was able to pull.


"It was the worst kept secret in Hollywood that Sony was abound to vacate Venom: Let There Be Carnage from its Oct. 15 release date, however, after the enormous $90M Labor Day weekend success of Disney/Marvel’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings, the Culver City lot has decided to go earlier with their own Marvel sequel on Oct. 1.

This returns Venom to its early October stomping ground, the first movie in 2018 setting an opening domestic record for the month with $80.2M before Warner Bros’ Joker pushed the Marvel pic to No. 2 for October a year later with $96.2M. I’ve heard that tracking among males is really hot for Venom 2, and Sony has every reason in the world to keep it in 2021 versus pushing the Andy Serkis-directed pic to January 22 (which was the rumor).

With Venom 2‘s move to the first weekend of October, the month remains intact as a hotbed for blockbusters. Originally, Sony had Hotel Transylvania 4 on the first weekend of October, but opted to sell it to Amazon for a reported $100M given the forecasted uneasiness of family audiences (which turned up at 12% for Shang-Chi this past weekend are expected to come out in the weeks to come). Also Hotel Transylvania 4 was up against MGM/United Artists Releasing’s Addams Family 2, and two big family pics in the marketplace were sure to cancel each other out. Venom 2 vs. Addams Family 2 is a fair fight demo wise, however, the latter has opted to go theatrical and PVOD day-and-date. Also opening on Oct. 1 is New Line’s Sopranos prequel The Many Saints of Newark which will also be day-and-date on HBO Max."

 

doctornick

Well-Known Member
The really strong hold during the weekend (i.e. less if a drop from Friday to Sat to Sunday) is typically a sign of a well received film that should get strong holds in upcoming weeks. This passed weekend was very different than Black Widow which was very front loaded opening weekend.

My gut feeling going in and more supported now is that the D+ premium access cut the legs off BW because most of the movie traffic was the super fans going opening night while the more ordinary patrons just watched at home on D+, maybe even with some watch parties and shared passwords (it also allowing for high quality pirated streams).

it’s interesting because the better Shang-Chi does in theaters, the stronger it makes Johansson’s case of her being harmed by the release strategy.
 

NateD1226

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Shang-Chi's 2nd weekend numbers are in and they are pretty solid! Shang-Chi had an estimated second weekend drop of 53% which equals to a $35.7 million weekend total. This is very good news as it is way lower then the 60%-70% falls that have been happening for blockbusters like Shang-Chi. Shang-Chi currently sits at $145.6 million domestically and $257.6 million worldwide. The future is bright for Disney's 2021 slate as they are now theatrical only releases. Free Guy went up this week back to #2 as it has crossed the $100 million mark making it the 7th film this year to do so. Out of those 7, Disney has 4 of them. Free Guy currently sits at $101.8 million domestically and $276.5 worldwide. Speaking of crossing milestones, it looks like Shang-Chi will be the first movie to cross $200 million if it keeps its legs going throughout the rest of its run. Jungle Cruise took spot #5 with a weekend total of $2.4 million.

As for Disney's 3 other movies in the marketplace, Black Widow was the top earner of the non-top 10 Disney movies. Black Widow suffered a harsh drop of 64% in its 10th weekend due to the ending of double features with Shang-Chi at drive-ins. The Night House also fell in the 60s, but that is due to the film having no audience. In its 16th weekend, Cruella made $25k in 55 theaters.

As for this Friday, Searchlight's The Eyes of Tammy Faye will have a wide release. Predictions shold be out on Wednesday, and I will amke sure to post them!

1.) Shang-Chi (Dis) 4,300 theaters Fri $9.7M (-67%),/Sat $15.3M/Sun $10.7M/ 3-day $35.7M (-53%), Total: $145.6M/Wk 2

2.) Free Guy (20th) 3,650 theaters (-235)/Fri $1.47M (-30%)/Sat $2.65M/Sun $1.688M/3-day $5.8M (-35%)/Total $101.8M/Wk 5

3.) Malignant (NL) 3,485 theaters Fri $2M/3-day $5.57M/Wk 1

4.) Candyman (Uni) 3,279 (-290) theaters/Fri $1.4M (-52%)/Sat $2.1M/Sun $1.29M/3-day $4.83M (-53%)/Total $48M/Wk 3

5.) Jungle Cruise (Dis) 2,800 (-275) theaters/Fri $571K (-36%)/Sat $1.16M/Sun $709K/3-day $2.4M (-40%)/Total $109.9M/Wk 7

6.) Paw Patrol (Par) 2,820 (-184) theaters/Fri $490K (-50%)/Sat $1.04M/Sun $680K/3-day $2.2M (-45%)/Total $34.6M/Wk 4

7.) Don’t Breathe 2 (Sony) 1,708 (-468) theaters, Fri $330K/Sat $530K/Sun $290K/3-day $1.15M (-50%)/Total/$30.2M/ Wk 5

8.) Card Counter (Foc) 580 theaters/Fri $420K/Sat $390K/Sun $290K/3-day $1.1M/Wk 1

9.) Show Me the Father (Sony) 1,073 theaters/Fri $300K/Sat $225K/Sun $175K/3-day $700K/Wk 1

10.) Respect (UAR) 1,307 (-800) theaters/Fri $141K/Sat $226K/Sun $136K/3-day $503K (-59%)/Total $23.1M/Wk 5

11.) After We Fell (VVS) 230 theaters/Fri $215,6K/Sat $126,6K/Sun $85,6K/3-day $428,3K/Wk 1




 

Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
“Disney is ruling the domestic box office this weekend.

In its third weekend, Marvel and Disney’s “Shang-Chi” is set to remain in the No. 1 spot with an estimated gross of $20 million to $22 million, bringing its total earnings to a staggering $175 million to $177 million. On Friday, the superhero adventure starring Simu Liu brought in $5.8 million from 4,070 theaters. It won’t be long until “Shang-Chi’s” gross beats that of fellow Marvel film “Black Widow,” which has collected $183 million so far.

Meanwhile, box office hit “Free Guy” — produced by 20th Century Studios and distributed by Disney — is expected to climb back to the No. 2 spot in its sixth week of release. Despite new releases, “Free Guy” has held its own on the box office charts since its debut, hanging on to the No. 1 spot for two weekends and staying in the top five ever since. Starring Ryan Reynolds, the sci-fi comedy brought in $1.3 million on Friday from 3,288 theaters, and is estimated to add another $4.9 million to its gross for a cume of $108.3 million.


 

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