LSLS
Well-Known Member
I'm talking global, not just domestic, and I'm looking at release year. And there is a legit possibility it's total is below Aladdin, landing in 9th for 2019 releases.
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2020 Box Office Tracking
- Thread starter WhatJaneSays
- Start date
I'm talking global, not just domestic, and I'm looking at release year. And there is a legit possibility it's total is below Aladdin, landing in 9th for 2019 releases.
Global is it's own very fascinating beast. Half of the reason I don't track it on this particular thread is because every studio and movie kinda does it's own thing on what gets released where and when. While most of Disney's stuff does get wide releases in international markets it gets unfair to compare movies that don't open in as many markets.
... anyways!
You might be right on the word wide side of things. Right now Rise of Skywalker is a bit over 100m behind Aladdin, might still have that much in the tank. Normally I'd say after the 3rd weekend you can just plug all a movies numbers in an equation and get a reasonable idea of where it's gonna finish up at - but 2019 shot a lot of those calculations out the window. Right now it's just as likely to totally dropping off or end up just slow churning it's way through the next 12-16 weeks to something unexpected.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
The typical formula for overall gross is opening weekend x 3
Rise of the story confusion is tracking below that at last glance
That formula has become more and more worthless in the last 5 years. It only stays relevant as a very generic average across movies en masse, and even that calculation on legs is drifting lower all the time as movies become increasingly font loaded.
(Also you literally picked one of the few stats that Rise of Skywalker is genuinely over-preforming on ... if you wanted an additional reason as to why "legs" are a useless stat.)
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
...I can’t find ANY stats it’s overperforming in...
Except domestic 12/24-26...
But since this is your thing - i’d love your insights on how to find the endpoint?
I get your point about frontloading...which makes the case for Disney worse.
It would have to make $1.19 billion to meet opening x3...
There just isn’t an audience out there for that based on the rate of drops and how far it has to go...
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Front loading is the distributors' and studios' best friend!
I have a bit of a sliding scale for estimating where a movie tends to land. It's not exactly the same for for every situation, because of course a comic book movie released in summer preforms differently than an animated movie near a holiday. Drops between weekends are a big factor, but also how a movie preforms on it's weekdays, how quickly it drops theaters after the 2nd week, the ratios between how different days of the week look.
For Rise of Skywalker's case it's a bit to early to tell ... because holidays just are a pain to correct for. But I'd estimate it will coast it's way past the billion dollar mark, could end up near Rogue One but I don't expect anything more than that. HOWEVER, we definitely learned last year Disney is more than prepared to do special releases, bonus content, and late run advertising which all muddy the water further.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
It seems front load is the Theater and distributors friends...ensuring maximum upfront yeild...more bang for their bucks. I wouldn’t think that would hold well for the IP owners that want longterm exposures and yield.
Disney can “special release” this one all they want...very few people that wanted to see it haven’t done so at this point. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised if Disney started to buy blocks of tickets to save face. Rogue one certainly wasn’t the goal.
The holiday fall on a Wednesday helped this film - my take...many more people had those solid weeks off their usual.
Okay I will nip that thought right in the bud. This does not happen. (Or at least this does not happen in modern times, it very much did happen back in the 20s-40s.) There is far, far more to lose if you get caught than you could ever gain at a 65% return on your money. There is no way to accomplish this in a way you won't get caught without a stupid amount of effort and money. (There was a estimation that between raw cash, manpower, and expenses a studio would have to spend a minimum of $3-5 for every $1 of box office they could theoretically boost.)
Incidentally, Disney is just about the only studio that could potentially pull this off because they operate the El Capitan Theatre as a regular movie theater. And even then, they still report box office numbers the same way every chain does ... so it would be very obvious to anyone with access to those numbers (many of whom who would LOVE to cause trouble for Disney) if they suddenly had sold out shows for no reason.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Oh good. I've had to explain repeatedly to many people (mostly on reddit) after both Black Panther, Captain Marvel, and now after Rise of Skywalker why it doesn't work that way. People love conspiracy theories ... and I have way to much fun shooting them down between meetings/events/whatnot.Lol...
That was tongue in cheek...I didn’t think it ever would happen
@WhatJaneSays - Curious your thoughts on which movies you anticipate will break 100m on their opening weekend in 2020. Last year I believe there was 5 (and several others close in the 90 to 99m range). I don't see as many capable of that this year, or at least don't see as many "definites", just a bunch of "well they could if..."
I'm not seeing nearly any surefire openers this year. The only one I'm closest to calling will have a 100m+ opening weekend is Wonder Woman 1984. Everything else in striking range is either a new thing, a franchise that may be on a downward trend, or I just don't think has the hype to make it.
On the "I wouldn't be surprised" if they made it list:
- Mulan - It seems to be well received, but China always makes things difficult.
- Black Widow - MCU boost is worth a lot, but this is a standalone and solo outings preform lower.
- Fast and Furious 9 - They might catch it on an up swing, but who knows.
- Minions: The Rise of Gru - Minions ... just when we thought we were safe.
- Venom 2 - The first one preformed far better than expected, but now there are expectations.
- The Eternals - Again the MCU boost is real, but this is a new chapter.
jt04
Well-Known Member
Oh good. I've had to explain repeatedly to many people (mostly on reddit) after both Black Panther, Captain Marvel, and now after Rise of Skywalker why it doesn't work that way. People love conspiracy theories ... and I have way to much fun shooting them down between meetings/events/whatnot.
Speaking of conspiracy theories, are you hearing anything about an extended cut version of TRoS in this theatrical run?
Seems a no-brainer to me but I'm sure they have done surveys.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Again we're still fairly early in the year, still likely not any movers this weekend. We did have a few movies expand wide and a pair of new ones. 1917's expansion into 3400+ theaters finally took the #1 spot from Rise of Skywalker on Friday. Neither new wide releases, Like a Boss and Underwater, seem to be doing well. Even sophomore weekend for The Grudge has utterly tanked out with an 80% Friday drop off.
Next weekend will feature the first face off if the year, but even expectations on them are lowering. Neither Bad Boys for Life or Dolittle are expected to go above 35m.
Next weekend will feature the first face off if the year, but even expectations on them are lowering. Neither Bad Boys for Life or Dolittle are expected to go above 35m.
Lucasfilm is the most insular of Disney's sub-studios (and one of the most insular studios full-stop), so there's not really a modern precedence for them to do surveys. As far as my knowledge goes the rumored "extended cut" is purely fiction and there are not plans to create one for release. Any extended version or some kind of bonus features wouldn't likely happen until the 8-12 week of the run.
I expanded the Top Movies list to 10 now that we have at least that many movies with grosses above 10m.
Fox is starting the year rocky with Underwater bringing in only 7m off a reported 80m budget.
Universal rose to #3 off 1917's wide expansion. Sony (#2) passed 100m this weekend. Sony is also poised to take the #1 spot from Disney with the release of Bad Boys For Life. This could be first time Disney might be knocked from the top spot since (I believe) late March of 2019; with no wide releases until 2/21 Call of the Wild and 3/6 Onward ... Disney will be hitting their first dry spot in a while.
Fox is starting the year rocky with Underwater bringing in only 7m off a reported 80m budget.
Universal rose to #3 off 1917's wide expansion. Sony (#2) passed 100m this weekend. Sony is also poised to take the #1 spot from Disney with the release of Bad Boys For Life. This could be first time Disney might be knocked from the top spot since (I believe) late March of 2019; with no wide releases until 2/21 Call of the Wild and 3/6 Onward ... Disney will be hitting their first dry spot in a while.
jt04
Well-Known Member
As predicted TRoS passed 1 billion. No doubt underperforming but a few silver linings too.
It was thought these theatrical films could not do better overseas than Domestic but that conventional wisdom is toast.
China is still a potential market. The current trilogy has been a hindrance due to being heavily layered with deep dives into SW lore. Just not as accessible to audiences who haven't grown up with the franchise. And even to many audience members that have. IMO.
These films could make twice the BO with simpler plot lines and lighter narratives. Easy to make these more mainstream while taking deeper dives through books and streaming. Again my opinion. That was the original recipe of the original trilogy. The Mandolorian uses the original aesthetics.
That said, I think this episode will become more appreciated over time on Disney+. Especially with an extended cut it true.
It was thought these theatrical films could not do better overseas than Domestic but that conventional wisdom is toast.
China is still a potential market. The current trilogy has been a hindrance due to being heavily layered with deep dives into SW lore. Just not as accessible to audiences who haven't grown up with the franchise. And even to many audience members that have. IMO.
These films could make twice the BO with simpler plot lines and lighter narratives. Easy to make these more mainstream while taking deeper dives through books and streaming. Again my opinion. That was the original recipe of the original trilogy. The Mandolorian uses the original aesthetics.
That said, I think this episode will become more appreciated over time on Disney+. Especially with an extended cut it true.
Fox (on the movie side) is being re-branded to "20th Century Studios" and Fox Searchlight to "Searchlight Pictures". For the time being I'm not going to adjust this thread's listings, we all know what the labels mean.
Sony did dethrone Disney for the top spot with a great opening for Bad Boys For Life! It's on course to be the first 100m movie of 2020 year. Dolittle on the other hand hit right on it's low expectations, it's not a great start for Universal this year. But they are being bolstered by 1917's wide release which is continuing to well in it's wide release.
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I also realized that I completely forgot to track the Searchlight movies.
They're added in now.
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I also realized that I completely forgot to track the Searchlight movies.
They're added in now.