2019 Box Office tracking

WhatJaneSays

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Well let's think about that. If (assumption here), they were only 8 million off...no way in the world Disney will let it miss. In fact, I am sure that they are already planning to find ways to get everything they can to make sure it ends up #1 worldwide.
If it gets within that kind of distance, they will push as best they can. It's more likely that Endgame will be in the 65-90m short of the record near the deep end (16 weeks+) of it's run. At that point little short of some kind of exclusive content bonus will make that up that kind of box office. Or ... they could make the long play of waiting a few years and doing a re-release like ye olden days.
 

WhatJaneSays

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Some movement in our top ranks after the weekend.

Lionsgate was the big jump, up to #4, with the release of John Wick 3 bringing in 56.8m and dethroning Endgame for the weekend.

Endgame itself is at 771.3m domestic and 1.84b international, for a total of 2.61b world wide. It's just 171.1m behind #1 Avatar. With about 47.7m coming from the international that represents a 46% retention from the previous weekend, which is fairly stable. If it can retain at least 40% over the next 3 weekends it should reach 1.895b and make up the difference needed for the world wide record. That still may be out of reach but within the math for Disney to push hard enough.
 

Ripken10

Well-Known Member
Some movement in our top ranks after the weekend.

Lionsgate was the big jump, up to #4, with the release of John Wick 3 bringing in 56.8m and dethroning Endgame for the weekend.

Endgame itself is at 771.3m domestic and 1.84b international, for a total of 2.61b world wide. It's just 171.1m behind #1 Avatar. With about 47.7m coming from the international that represents a 46% retention from the previous weekend, which is fairly stable. If it can retain at least 40% over the next 3 weekends it should reach 1.895b and make up the difference needed for the world wide record. That still may be out of reach but within the math for Disney to push hard enough.
Correct me if I am wrong, but aren't some of the foreign numbers not all in yet, so that 46% might not be completely accurate?

Also, I assume you were saying 2.61b as of the end of Sunday? As it is currently over 2.62 billion.
 

WhatJaneSays

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Correct me if I am wrong, but aren't some of the foreign numbers not all in yet, so that 46% might not be completely accurate?

Also, I assume you were saying 2.61b as of the end of Sunday? As it is currently over 2.62 billion.
Correct. It would be up to the 2.62 with the Monday $ on it.

As for the international market, there are a few lagers on final numbers and that's typical. But the estimates for Endgame have been quite close so far. It could make up some ground but, I'd expect a boost of more than 1-1.5%. Honestly the retention rate it's getting is crazy (but this whole run has been math breaking so what's new?). Infinity War's retention at it's 4th international weekend was just barely 30% AND that was with the benefit of China only in it's 2nd weekend.
 
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WhatJaneSays

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
If Dark Phoenix flops do we consider it a Disney flop? Even though they own it. They didn't make it.
Maybe? This is kind of a grey area of who gets credit/blame on an inherited project. If it was successful people would be likely to count it as a Disney "win". Personally I'm keeping all the former Fox properties that were already made separate from the main Disney produced stuff until the first new projects come out.
 

WhatJaneSays

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
First reports on China's final box office for Endgame is 628.64m. That was a 74.8% increase from the performance of Infinity War.

For the international this will be the first weekend with less markets, this will drop the general holds.
 
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WhatJaneSays

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Ah, a 4-day holiday weekend approaches! All 3 new releases this weekend are fairly different markets, not much direct cross over.

The estimations of Aladdin's opening weekend are a bit all over the place. I feel it will land in the top half of the "Reimaginings" but I'm not expecting Jungle Book or Beauty an the Beast numbers.
 

Ripken10

Well-Known Member
Was thinking about something today with the 2019 box office. I know there has been a bit of talk about how Avengers End Game had helped "correct" things a little with the low box office so far. Often times when you analyze data, your suppose to remove outliers to really get a sense of how things are going, which made me think. Endgame is the very definition of an outlier. I have thought about how poorly the box office would be doing without those numbers, so I did a little research. To me it shows that right now, the 2019 box office is very troubling for studios compared to past years. Going back to 2014 (which is the data I could get from boxofficemojo for this), if you remove the #1 movie from each year, 2019 is the worst year yet (200 million behind the 2nd worst year). In fact, for fun I took out the top two movies from each year (pushing it to say Captain Marvel is an outlier, but I did anyways) and the numbers look worse up to May 23rd (in millions: 2019: 2,962.3; 2018: 3,336.9; 2017: 3,525.5; 2016: 3,533.6; 2015: 3,316.1; 2014 3,341.2). Only 200 million separate the biggest year from the smallest year from 2014 to 2018, but over 350 million separate the worst year in that span (2015) from this year. Obviously the world is changing, but that is a big jump from the a "trend" over the last 5 years to this year.
 

seascape

Well-Known Member
So far this year through the estimated numbers of May 26, Disney's 4 worldwide releases total $4,359,600,000. That does not include the holdovers from 2018 or Penguins. On top of that there is the 135 million approximate from the international release of Glass. Therefore, the question is can Disney make it to 5 billion worldwide in 5 months? I am not sure the international carryover of Ralph, Mary Poppins and Nutcracker. but the domestic number is just under 90 million and Penguins was just under 7.3 million. Adding those together brings the total to just about 4.6 billion. Aladdin is easily going to have a better box office number than Solo had last year and since May 31 is a Friday this year and today is a holiday, I think it is a stretch but not as likely as is 7 billion in 7 months with Toy Story 4 and Lion King coming out.
 

WhatJaneSays

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Not many unexpected things so far this week.

Aladdin ended up with 116m, coming in at #5 all time for the Memorial Day 4-day weekend. Breaking a long streak of bad openings for Disney on that weekend (Solo, Pirates 5, Alice 2, and Tomorrowland).

The world wide record watch for Endgame continues. Some projections have it surging around the time Spider-Man comes out to make the record but with nearly 100m to go I can't imagine that high of a boost. If it manages the record it will likely be a long slow trailing end that does it.
 

Ripken10

Well-Known Member
Not many unexpected things so far this week.

Aladdin ended up with 116m, coming in at #5 all time for the Memorial Day 4-day weekend. Breaking a long streak of bad openings for Disney on that weekend (Solo, Pirates 5, Alice 2, and Tomorrowland).

The world wide record watch for Endgame continues. Some projections have it surging around the time Spider-Man comes out to make the record but with nearly 100m to go I can't imagine that high of a boost. If it manages the record it will likely be a long slow trailing end that does it.
After yesterday's domestic only 98 million to go ;-)
 

Ripken10

Well-Known Member
That is still over 10 million ticket buyers away. I sm thinking it will end up close buy lose by about 50 million.
Infinite War made over 43 million domestically from this point in the cycle on, and End game still made slightly more last week then Infinite War did in the same week (end game actually had a wider margin compared to Infinite War in week 4 compared to week 3). Domestically alone it will put it within 50 million (without a little extra for Spiderman).
 

WhatJaneSays

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
From BoxOfficePro:

Toy Story 4 crushes Fandando's animated presale record (previously held by Incredibles 2)
All the signs for Toy Story 4 are looking good. (Of course I have to caveat that with presales haven't been a sure fire indicator but still positive leaning.)

The Pixar movies have been trending up by quite a bit lately. With the previous Toy Story starting off with a 110m opening weekend, and last year's Incredibles 2 bringing in 182m opening weekend, expecting a bump for Toy Story 4 is very reasonable. While a few places are predicting 200m, I'm a bit more conservative as I don't expect it to out do Incredibles 2 in OW or whole run. However Toy Story is a more beloved series, so if it does hit that mark I would not be surprised.
 

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