2019 Box Office tracking

WhatJaneSays

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Captain Marvel officially closed on July 4th after 17 weeks in theaters. (A slightly shorter run than the typical 18-20 week Marvel run.) It's final domestic was $426,829,839. It came in #6 in the MCU box office, and currently holds the #21 of all time domestic, and #22 world wide.
 

MisterPenguin

Rumormonger
Premium Member
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Captain Marvel officially closed on July 4th after 17 weeks in theaters. (A slightly shorter run than the typical 18-20 week Marvel run.) It's final domestic was $426,829,839. It came in #6 in the MCU box office, and currently holds the #21 of all time domestic, and #22 world wide.
And, $1.1 Billion worldwide.
 
New here Avid Disney fan. Star Wars fanatic. Box office enthusiast. What do people expect TLK to open with and make domestically?

Box Office Pro has locked in $201 million OW with $650 million DOM for a while. They missed the mark originally with Aladdin and were all over the place with TS4.
 

seascape

Well-Known Member
As of today, 7/7/19, Boxofficemojo has Disney's workdwide gross from their 5 worldwide releases for the year at $5.824.3 billion. Add to that the revenue from Penguins and International Glass revenue and of course the carry over from 2018 movies and Disney is at about $6.3 billion. Now, add in the remaining revenue fron Toy Story, Aladdin and Endgame and the revenue from The Lion King for July and breaking Disney's yearly record of $7.61 billion by the end of July is actually possible.
 

Princess Leia

Well-Known Member
New here Avid Disney fan. Star Wars fanatic. Box office enthusiast. What do people expect TLK to open with and make domestically?

Box Office Pro has locked in $201 million OW with $650 million DOM for a while. They missed the mark originally with Aladdin and were all over the place with TS4.
Welcome! The hype for the Lion King is crazy, so $201 million seems about right
 

MisterPenguin

Rumormonger
Premium Member
So, the good:

TS4, though it ""underperformed"" on aggressive guesses domestically, did wind up with the #1 Global Opening Weekend (for an animated feature) of all time at $238M . Beating the previous record-holder, Incredibles 2.Aladdin continues to bring in the dough that he stole on the streets, up to $810M globally.Endgame is within $38M for the all time unadjusted global record.Rocketman became more profitable.

The bad:

These movies are limping along in the red and will almost certainly stay that way for their theatrical window: Godzilla, Dark Phoenix, MiB International.Pets2 may wind up just breaking even. Which is good news for a franchise that can make up for it in the after-market. Not too good news for becoming an anchor attraction at Universal.
Two weeks later and more of the same. Endgame is still falling short of the all-time record.

TS4 has already made a profit. Aladdin, more so. Rocketman, too.

Pets2 finally turned profitable, but probably won't do much more.

Godzilla, Dark Phoenix, MiB:I are still in the red and will stay that way (along with Dumbo).

Spider-Man:FFH became profitable its first week with good scores all around.

The MCU will make about $5 Billion in Box Office with three movies in one year (but remember, big budgets, so, that's only half a billion in profits... for just the theatrical window). Imagine what it could have done if there wasn't all this superhero fatigue!! ;)
 

Ripken10

Well-Known Member
Two weeks later and more of the same. Endgame is still falling short of the all-time record.

TS4 has already made a profit. Aladdin, more so. Rocketman, too.

Pets2 finally turned profitable, but probably won't do much more.

Godzilla, Dark Phoenix, MiB:I are still in the red and will stay that way (along with Dumbo).

Spider-Man:FFH became profitable its first week with good scores all around.

The MCU will make about $5 Billion in Box Office with three movies in one year (but remember, big budgets, so, that's only half a billion in profits... for just the theatrical window). Imagine what it could have done if there wasn't all this superhero fatigue!! ;)
Just as a note (not directed at you, just for those that might want to know), Endgame has passed Avatar's first run in theaters at this point. It took a re-release a few years later to pass the number Endgame has made at this point.
 

WhatJaneSays

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
New here Avid Disney fan. Star Wars fanatic. Box office enthusiast. What do people expect TLK to open with and make domestically?

Box Office Pro has locked in $201 million OW with $650 million DOM for a while. They missed the mark originally with Aladdin and were all over the place with TS4.
Welcome to our fun little corner of the forum!

The estimations for OW for Lion King seem to be a bit all over the place no mater where you look. Earlier in the year many places were calling an 250m OW reasonable. While that could still happen, the trend on all movies is below expectations. Looking at the pre-sales as compared with Toy Story 4 ... it should be in the range of 40-45% above that, which only tops out at about 175m. That feels low to me but looking at how Aladdin did that my be accurate.

The kind of movie Lion King is are taking a turn for mid to low OW with low week-to-week drops that are making up the difference. I would not be surprised if it does sub-200m and then maintains less than 35% drops for the summer.
 
Aladdin is now at 47 days of $1 million domestic (with a 60% jump from yesterday's $1.008 million). Going off of its other weeks (except last week which was odd due to the 4th), it will drop between 30-35% today giving it around $1.3-$1.4 million. If it does that I highly doubt it will drop below $1 million until at LEAST next Monday, July 15th. That will give it 52 days. And with Lion King coming, there could be double features, special engagements or who knows what.

$350 million seems certain at this point. Keeps going up by $5 million each week in projections. $1 billion WW seems more likely than it has been considering that it's taking around a 35% drop WW each weekend. Some thought it might not hit $200 million domestic or $600 million WW (some folks at Box Office Theory).

Meanwhile comps for TLK put it around $20-$25 million potential Thursday previews (unless you use superhero or SW films as comps which have much higher preview numbers due to spoiler avoidance/urgencies). A surge in live-action remake confidence will help TLK.
 

seascape

Well-Known Member
Right now Boxofficemojo has Endgame just $13,868,546 behind Avatar. That does not include Monday through Thursdays International box office. Therefore it looks like Endgame will be within $10,000,000 after Sunday. It will still be a battle but it is looking like with Disney magic that it may just make it past Avatar.

Aladdin is still hanging in there and may have the legs to reach 1 billion by the end of the month as the international box office has been holding strong.
Toy Story will pass Aladdin domestically this weekend and move to the number 4 spot worldwide and finally Spiderman will move to the number 5 worldwide spot.
 

Darkprime

Well-Known Member
Its not gonna pass Avatar right now. We're 2 and half weeks out from the digital release. Who is even seeing it at this point? The only way its gonna pass it is if they do a proper re-release say 6 months from now. Give people a chance to miss it from theaters. And get that itch to want to see it again on the big screen. Do some double features with Infinity War. Actually add some legit bonus material like 10min of deleted scenes at least. Not this glass half full re-release.
 

Animaniac93-98

Well-Known Member
Its not gonna pass Avatar right now. We're 2 and half weeks out from the digital release. Who is even seeing it at this point? The only way its gonna pass it is if they do a proper re-release say 6 months from now. Give people a chance to miss it from theaters. And get that itch to want to see it again on the big screen. Do some double features with Infinity War. Actually add some legit bonus material like 10min of deleted scenes at least. Not this glass half full re-release.
You really don't think it's going to make another $14 million worldwide by the end of its run?
 

seascape

Well-Known Member
Not when the digital and blu-ray release are so close.
Disney made a few million more after Infinity Wars was out on Digital and Blue Ray. Do I think they will break it by a lot? No way. But they did get Black Panther over the 700 million dollar mark and if they need just a few million more, they will find a way, even if was to offer DVC vacationers a special screening at Disney Springs paid for by DVC.

BTW, they kept Black Panther out for 175 days to make it. Endgame through yesterday was at 77 days. They will find a way and it will be by the end of August.
 
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50 days of $1 million for Aladdin! Now we head into the weekend where it will probably make $4-$5 million which would be over a $1 million each day. 53 days. (it will likely drop on Monday)..

It's been dropping less than 35% each week both foreign and domestic for the past several weeks. If it keeps it up it will at least be VERY close to $1 billion WW.
 

lee.moles.disney

Well-Known Member
I hope so, it's a cracker lol

Endgame isn't going to make it. A proper re-release double bill with Infinity War early next year where there's no Marvel films coming out may work?
 

seascape

Well-Known Member
Not when the digital and blu-ray release are so close.
Well after today's weekend estimates, Endgame is only $7,164,948 behind Avatar. That will change a little in either direction after the final numbers are out tomorrow but I have to believe there is enough Disney magic to make it.
 
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