2019 Box Office tracking

MisterPenguin

Rumormonger
Premium Member
Which was expected to do over $160 million. It did really good but not was expected of it.
Maybe there's nothing wrong with the movie or the audience, but with the people who came up with the expectation. They were wrong about several other blockbusters this year.
 
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Prince-1

Well-Known Member
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Maybe there's nothing wrong with the movie or the audience, but with the people who came up with the expectation. They were wrong about several other blockbusters this year.
Id say that it’s underperforming due to what it was expected to make. It will still be huge.
 

Disney Irish

Well-Known Member
So, the good:

TS4, though it ""underperformed"" on aggressive guesses domestically, did wind up with the #1 Global Opening Weekend (for an animated feature) of all time at $238M . Beating the previous record-holder, Incredibles 2.​
Aladdin continues to bring in the dough that he stole on the streets, up to $810M globally.​
Endgame is within $38M for the all time unadjusted global record.​
Rocketman became more profitable.​


The bad:

These movies are limping along in the red and will almost certainly stay that way for their theatrical window: Godzilla, Dark Phoenix, MiB International.​
Pets2 may wind up just breaking even. Which is good news for a franchise that can make up for it in the after-market. Not too good news for becoming an anchor attraction at Universal.​

The other:

With so many franchises not doing well, there is a drum beat for franchise-fatigue. But that keeps overlooking the franchises that are doing well. TS4 is objectively a success despite the spin of 'not meeting exorbitant expectations'. Endgame is a success. And the super hero fatigue? Aquaman and Shazam were successes, too. How to Train your Dragon made money. John Wick made money. I'm sure Spider-Man will also do very well.​
Disney's live action remakes and franchises continue to be... a mix. Dumbo flopped. Mary Poppins Returns barely broke even. But Aladdin, and assuredly, Lion King, will do very well.​
The lesson: When people name two to four movies and proclaim a trend. Don't believe them. That is very cherry-picked data. Gotta look at all the counter-examples.​
Any bets on Iger/Feige renting out a bunch of theaters in Burbank just to push End Game over the finish line if it doesn't make it this weekend.....

I know I'm doing my part, I'll go watch it for the 5th time this weekend.
 

seascape

Well-Known Member
Any bets on Iger/Feige renting out a bunch of theaters in Burbank just to push End Game over the finish line if it doesn't make it this weekend.....

I know I'm doing my part, I'll go watch it for the 5th time this weekend.
I will go one more time to see the extras. That will make 6 times. I don't think with the extra scenes they will need to buy out any shows. They are only 37.2 million away and if they still average $9.00 a ticket they only need just under 4.2 million more tickets sold.
 

Disney Irish

Well-Known Member
I will go one more time to see the extras. That will make 6 times. I don't think with the extra scenes they will need to buy out any shows. They are only 37.2 million away and if they still average $9.00 a ticket they only need just under 4.2 million more tickets sold.
That's the ultimate question though. Are there 4.2M Marvel fans willing to go see it again for what amounts to an end credit scene that'll be on YouTube likely the next day. We'll see, I'm hoping there are.
 

jt04

Well-Known Member
2019 is a bad year for animated movies. They are all underperforming. Regardless, it looks like Disney will pass the $6 billion dollar worldwide gross by Saturday night.
I don't think you can single out animation as the disappoints seem to be spread across every genre. Disney is the only studio doing consistently well.

TS4 is slightly slower out of the blocks but I just think people are taking their time and spreading out their "must see" summer movies. I expect it to do very well with the summer movie crowds. More a movie people drop their kids at the multiplex for to occupy them for a few hours. It should have holds similar to Aladdin but is off to a much stronger start.

400 north America and 1 billion total seems readily achievable.
 

WhatJaneSays

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
That's the ultimate question though. Are there 4.2M Marvel fans willing to go see it again for what amounts to an end credit scene that'll be on YouTube likely the next day. We'll see, I'm hoping there are.
When the assumption was this "re-release" was a purely domestic affair I was fairly sure that the mark would still be missed; however now that there is going to be a push back into some international markets ... that's a much lower bar to reach. It remains to be seen which if any truly major markets are getting re-releases or expansions but just a handful of markets popping in with just and extra 500k adds up real quick.
 

Disney Irish

Well-Known Member
When the assumption was this "re-release" was a purely domestic affair I was fairly sure that the mark would still be missed; however now that there is going to be a push back into some international markets ... that's a much lower bar to reach. It remains to be seen which if any truly major markets are getting re-releases or expansions but just a handful of markets popping in with just and extra 500k adds up real quick.
And I assume they'll leave it out there right up until the July 30th digital release date. So another month of tickets could conceivably do it.
 

jt04

Well-Known Member
Even with competitor Aladdin's great holds, TS4 has surpassed TS3's first week total. This doesn't include today's sales.

Marvel's Spider-Man may put a dent in sales but 400 million still seems likely IMO.
 
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WhatJaneSays

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
With the weekend estimates in Toy Story 4 maintained it's #1 spot over some fairly mild new comers. While the year overall has still been a bit soft Toy Story 4 is ahead of it's previous installment even with a 52% drop. With an expected run I don't see it quite topping the 415m domestic of Toy Story 3 or the billion world wide.

The somewhat unexpected staying power of Aladdin, now in it's 3 weekend of sub 30% drops, have raised it's take to 305m domestic. Even it's international drops have been fairly good. While it didn't have the initial splash people may have hoped on the front end it seems like it might make it up on legs.

The Endgame record watch continues! With an estimated 5.5m weekend it broke back into the top 10 and brought it's domestic up to 841.3m. On the international market not all places are getting the re-release/expansion at the same time so the numbers may be longer in coming. The estimations from the weekend bring that international total to 1.92 billion, though there will be more accurate numbers in the next week or so as things shake out. That brings the Avatar gap to 26.6m world wide to go. They shaved off 10.5 million in a single week with just hype and on a non-holiday weekend, with not all markets active yet ... that puts the record back in doable range. We're still deep in the run and the margin of error can fall either way but dang it if they are not gonna make this fun to watch.
 

lee.moles.disney

Well-Known Member
I've decided to not go to the Avengers re-release as from Twitter people are saying it isn't very good what they added. I been a good fan this year and seen all the Disney releases except Dumbo.

I'll see Spider-Man next week too. Jeeps, I wish Cinemas did annual passes for just films under the Disney banner
 

seascape

Well-Known Member
Disney broke the 2 billion make domestically and 6 billion worldwide. There is no stopping them this year. With Lion King they will break 7 billion in July and 8 billion by the end of August.
 

lee.moles.disney

Well-Known Member
Well Aladdin will comfortably hit $900 before all said and done and Toy Story is sitting at $500 so all is good. Endgame isnt going to best Avatar now though
 

WhatJaneSays

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
The Endgame record watch update: The weekend estimates on the domestic and international have both adjusted up. Domestic is at $841,889,897, International is at $1,922,991,959. The world gap to #1 world wide is now just 23 million.

Some international markets will get their expansions/re-releases on July 5th and 11th. One particularly for the 11th will be Brazil, which has historically been a big market for the MCU movies. Endgame had already made over 85m there, gaining an extra million just there is not outside the math. There could be 10m on the table internationally over the next 3-4 weeks and this late in the run that could be game changing.

We're also heading into what is essentially an entire week of "holiday weekend" here in the States. It remains to be seen what the release of Spider-Man: Far From Home will do for Endgame, but I honestly can't see it hurting ... particularly if it strikes certain cords.
 

Darkprime

Well-Known Member
I have a feeling EndGame is gonna fall $10-15M short. Especially with the Digital release in 3 and half weeks it doesn't exactly get fans to go see it again.
 

HauntedPirate

Sheltered-at-home Park nostalgist
Premium Member
After reading about what exactly was in the “re-release”, I decided to not go after initially being excited. Give us even 5 minutes of actual new footage and you’d already have beaten Avatar. An unfinished Hulk clip and a 5-minute Stan Lee tribute is about as weak as you can get.
 

winstongator

Well-Known Member
All things considered, it's a shame that it's ending like this. I'm not even an X-Men person, but I know how vital the success the franchise was to the creation of Marvel Studios and just as the proving ground for what an ensemble superhero movie could be. Not being particularly up on the last stretch of the series (the last one I saw was First Class) all the noise I've heard is it's been down hill for the main story line since then.
I grew up loving the x-me. Cartoon series on after school. I remember watching it while in college. I stopped watching at some point - might have been earlier than first class.

You need to watch Logan. Not only one of my favorite superhero movies, but one of my favorites of all time. A superhero movie not really suitable for kids generates the best ROI in a series? It’s no coincidence that the movie with the highest RT and critics scores does the best.

Making great movies makes money at the box office, and makes movies people will re-watch.
 

Princess Leia

Well-Known Member
After reading about what exactly was in the “re-release”, I decided to not go after initially being excited. Give us even 5 minutes of actual new footage and you’d already have beaten Avatar. An unfinished Hulk clip and a 5-minute Stan Lee tribute is about as weak as you can get.
All they had to do was finish the Hulk clip and put it in the movie, and that probably would have been enough for me to go out and see it. Instead, I'm going to wait for the blu-ray.
 

Animaniac93-98

Well-Known Member
Aladdin is now at $900 million worldwide and I think at this point it will either hit $1 billion with its own momentum, or Disney will keep it in theatres long enough to get there so they can brag about how many of their 2019 movies hit that mark.
 
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