2015 theme park attendance

[donsullivan]

Attendance data over nearly the same time period as the Disney and Universal data above for Sea World Orlando.

Scale is reduced from the Disney and Universal charts due to much smaller overall numbers. If I kept the same 55M annual scale, you can't see the variations from year to year in this chart.

 

[HM Spectre]

The end result of WDW "running themselves into the ground" for the better part of a decade was an increase of 2.5 million guests this past year. The result of Universal breaking the bank on new attractions every single year for the past 5 years and opening a huge new hotel has been an increase of 1.8 million guests.

Actually, looking at the awesome numbers provided by others in the thread, the end result is that starting with Potter in 2010, UNI has grown their market share by 50%. Since that same point in time, WDW has lost 5% overall market share almost exclusively to UNI.

The attendance gains at WDW come from overall Orlando tourism growth and Disney's giant market share, it doesn't come from outperforming UNI. And of the growth WDW did experience in that same timespan, the Magic Kingdom's growth matched the growth in the other three parks combined... the same Magic Kingdom that has capacity issues and is just about maxed out

Hopefully the new lands can give the other parks a boost because that's where future growth will have to happen. Right now, UNI is eating into WDW's business... and if they get to work on their rumored 3rd gate (which could also make it more possible to do an all-UNI vacation instead of just a day or two), it could get even worse.

WDW's "running themselves into the ground" while UNI has built themselves up has absolutely had an impact.

 

[hopemax]

Yeah I've always questioned the Disney numbers on here. Tokyo saw a decrease which I found weird. And DHS still increased 5%. Universal had a big jump at 16%.

The Tokyo numbers, unlike Disney's numbers are officially released by OLC in their annual report. All sorts of data on their Investor Relations page,. http://www.olc.co.jp/en/ir/ Here's the 2016 Factbook, they list all sorts of theme park data going back to 1983. Really, people should look at this sometime. http://www.olc.co.jp/en/ir/pdf/factbook2016.pdf Theme Park data is on Page 9, and they are meant to be viewed as 2 pages at a time. They show ticket prices, length of stay (hours), number of facilities (shops, restaurants, attractions), guest spending, guest demos, it's incredible. But for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2016 Theme Park attendance is down 3.8%

The Universal numbers are amazing though. Studios park was up 17% in 2014, and another 16% in 2015...I imagine Harry Potter Phase 3 can't be THAT far off, it's, "The gift that keeps on giving."

 

[Absimilliard]

The Tokyo numbers, unlike Disney's numbers are officially released by OLC in their annual report. All sorts of data on their Investor Relations page,. http://www.olc.co.jp/en/ir/ Here's the 2016 Factbook, again they list all sorts of theme park data going back to 1983. Really, people should look at this sometime. http://www.olc.co.jp/en/ir/pdf/factbook2016.pdf Theme Park data is on Page 9, and they are meant to be viewed as 2 pages at a time. They show ticket prices, length of stay (hours), number of facilities (shops, restaurants, attractions), guest spending, guest demos, it's incredible. But for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2016 Theme Park attendance is down 3.8%

The Universal numbers are amazing though. Studios park was up 17% in 2014, and another 16% in 2015...I imagine Harry Potter Phase 3 can't be THAT far off, it's, "The gift that keeps on giving."

I fully agree and the Universal Studios Japan figure is also straight from the park. Harry Potter is an insane success there on the scale of what it did to IOA.

 

[Coaster Lover]

How is Hollywood Studios still enjoying growth?

I believe this is a case of the "what's good for the goose is good for the gander". Disney rarely advertises "come to the Magic Kingdom" or "come to Animal Kingdom". They want people to come and see the resort as a whole (regardless of how bad some parts may be). The vast majority of new guests that come to Disney (heck, the vast majority of people planning multi-day trips to Disney) aren't going to just go to the Magic Kingdom and will likely hit each of the four main parks at least once (with it being likely that multiple days will be spent at Magic Kingdom). I don't think attendance is increasing at Hollywood Studios or EPCOT because of anything those parks did but simply because Disney is doing a good job at getting people to come to the resort in general (and likely stay multiple days).

 

[Jon81uk]

I find the Disney Hollywood Studios figure very suspicious, as the daily average that the TEA number gives is very close to the park maximum capacity. Did we hear reports that half the year was spent in phase closures for the park? If the attendance figure still grow next year, then it is rigged. With all the lost attraction capacity and walking space closures, the park capacity went down and it would be physically impossible to squeeze 10 million guests in that park over a year.

These figures are for 2015. The only ride that was closed in 2015 was the backlot tour. Guest walkway closures only happened April 2016 therefore the park capacity change is not linked to this TEA report

 

[Absimilliard]

These figures are for 2015. The only ride that was closed in 2015 was the backlot tour. Guest walkway closures only happened April 2016 therefore the park capacity change is not linked to this TEA report

I stated that the thing would be rigged if the figures showed a progression next year after all the closures. With this year's report, the park would have had to be at capacity many days in the year to show the reported attendance.

 

[gmajew]

Does make me wonder if another bubble has formed and we're looking at it popping again....

I am in several industries that tend to see the trend prior to the rest of the country and I will say I am very very scared that we are going to hit another slow down. Customers of mine in the one industry have held off on new projects and releasing orders until after the election and these are fortune 500 companies.

 

[danlb_2000]

I find the Disney Hollywood Studios figure very suspicious, as the daily average that the TEA number gives is very close to the park maximum capacity. Did we hear reports that half the year was spent in phase closures for the park? If the attendance figure still grow next year, then it is rigged. With all the lost attraction capacity and walking space closures, the park capacity went down and it would be physically impossible to squeeze 10 million guests in that park over a year.

The number of people who visited a park can be higher then it's capacity if they aren't staying for the entire day, which is a likely scenario for DHS.

 

[PhotoDave219]

I am in several industries that tend to see the trend prior to the rest of the country and I will say I am very very scared that we are going to hit another slow down. Customers of mine in the one industry have held off on new projects and releasing orders until after the election and these are fortune 500 companies.

The economy is a shell game from my perspective. It only looks good from Wall Street's perspective....

 

[wdwfan22]

I stated that the thing would be rigged if the figures showed a progression next year after all the closures. With this year's report, the park would have had to be at capacity many days in the year to show the reported attendance.

Why is that? The majority of people going to Walt Disney World are still going to visit Hollywood Studios even with the construction going on.

 

[GhostHost1000]

So according to the typical discussion here:

Orlando Disney Parks- "They've never been worse"
Magic Kingdom - "Nobody likes New Fantasyland" - Net Attendance Gain: 1.2 Million Guests
Epcot - "Stale, identity crisis, failure" - Net Attendance Gain: 350,000 Guests
DHS - "Should be shut down" - Net Attendance Gain: 500,000 Guests
AK - "It's almost worth going to" - Net Attendance Gain: 500,000 Guests

Orlando Universal Parks- "They're going to overtake Disney, so much better"
Universal Studios - "The real best park in Orlando" - Net Attendance Gain: 1.3 Million Guests
Islands of Adventure - "The second best park in Orlando" - Net Attendance Gain: 650,000 Guests

The prevailing sentiment among the loudest posters is that Disney is sitting in their behind and Universal is roaring toward them. Diagon Alley netted Universal an additional 100,000 guests compared to "lazy" Magic Kingdom who built the abomination of a land in New Fantasyland. The end result of WDW "running themselves into the ground" for the better part of a decade was an increase of 2.5 million guests this past year. The result of Universal breaking the bank on new attractions every single year for the past 5 years and opening a huge new hotel has been an increase of 1.8 million guests. I'm not discounting Universal's growth at all. In fact, I'm very pleased to see them challenging Disney and forcing them to do things like Pandora and Star Wars land (and of course fun smaller additions like Frozen and AK's new stuff).

On tap for WDW's "failing" parks will be a huge attendance boost for AK over the next few years after Nighttime stuff and Pandora, healthy growth for Frozen at EPCOT, and of course the flood of people for DHS later this decade. If Universal happens to finally match Disney's least attended park, next year or the following year, that result will be wiped away as the new attractions come online at AK and DHS.

I'd love to see Disney change the recent money grubbing stuff around the parks and I'd love to see move investment put into the parks aside from mega-attractions. But if they can continue to perform in this manner without that level of investment, why bother? As much as I hate to admit it, they seem to be performing quite well despite the "horror" that WDW has become to some people.

Why bother? If they don't bother people will stop coming....then when they want to "bother" people will have such a bad taste in their mouth from that and the "money grubbing" stuff it'll snowball

as for those numbers....I can get my monopoly money out and claim I'm rich as well... the numbers are not truly accurate for WDW parks regardless if they grew or not.

Even a blind man can see WDW has sit on their magical butt for too long and barely done anything and Uni has been building like crazy (and in light year faster compared to Disney construction). Now finally Disney is beginning to focus on new construction... but too much seems to be replacement of existing things today rather than expanding. Avatarland the exception...well sorta, they closed a section for that as well

remember some of the biggest critics here are also some of the biggest Disney World fans as well..... we just know how things used to be and are frustrated at the trends today

 

[Disney Analyst]

I think the figures offer a good indication of how many days at each park are being used. If DHS has that figure, that leads me to believe the majority of Visitors attend that park once on a visit, where as with MK being double that... Most visitors attend MK at least twice on a visit.

These estimates really may offer a glance at the true number of visitors as a whole, as the attendance figure is just a click.. It doesn't account for the same visitors attending multiple days on a trip.

I'd be curious what the actual number of visitors to Walt Disney World on vacation are... As they spend likely a week or two at a time there.. Could it really be smaller than we think, but just visiting multiple times on one trip?

Am I way off on a tangent now... I don't know if what I'm trying to get across is coming across..

 

[PhotoDave219]

So according to the typical discussion here:

Orlando Disney Parks- "They've never been worse"
Magic Kingdom - "Nobody likes New Fantasyland" - Net Attendance Gain: 1.2 Million Guests
Epcot - "Stale, identity crisis, failure" - Net Attendance Gain: 350,000 Guests
DHS - "Should be shut down" - Net Attendance Gain: 500,000 Guests
AK - "It's almost worth going to" - Net Attendance Gain: 500,000 Guests

Orlando Universal Parks- "They're going to overtake Disney, so much better"
Universal Studios - "The real best park in Orlando" - Net Attendance Gain: 1.3 Million Guests
Islands of Adventure - "The second best park in Orlando" - Net Attendance Gain: 650,000 Guests

The prevailing sentiment among the loudest posters is that Disney is sitting in their behind and Universal is roaring toward them. Diagon Alley netted Universal an additional 100,000 guests compared to "lazy" Magic Kingdom who built the abomination of a land in New Fantasyland. The end result of WDW "running themselves into the ground" for the better part of a decade was an increase of 2.5 million guests this past year. The result of Universal breaking the bank on new attractions every single year for the past 5 years and opening a huge new hotel has been an increase of 1.8 million guests. I'm not discounting Universal's growth at all. In fact, I'm very pleased to see them challenging Disney and forcing them to do things like Pandora and Star Wars land (and of course fun smaller additions like Frozen and AK's new stuff).

On tap for WDW's "failing" parks will be a huge attendance boost for AK over the next few years after Nighttime stuff and Pandora, healthy growth for Frozen at EPCOT, and of course the flood of people for DHS later this decade. If Universal happens to finally match Disney's least attended park, next year or the following year, that result will be wiped away as the new attractions come online at AK and DHS.

I'd love to see Disney change the recent money grubbing stuff around the parks and I'd love to see move investment put into the parks aside from mega-attractions. But if they can continue to perform in this manner without that level of investment, why bother? As much as I hate to admit it, they seem to be performing quite well despite the "horror" that WDW has become to some people.

You wanna look at the 10 year trend, the 15 year trend or the 20 year trend?

We look at the big picture, not cherry picking things to support our conclusions....

 

[KikoKea]

The number of people who visited a park can be higher then it's capacity if they aren't staying for the entire day, which is a likely scenario for DHS.

I agree. We went twice last year and we popped into HS for about 3-4 hrs just to ride RnRRC and StarTours, and maybe Muppets for a break. Been doing this for several years, rarely buying more than a Coke to share on the way out to the bus and another park.

 

[TubaGeek]

I'm sure someone can provide clear data regarding this, but I'd love to see also how much is spent by the average guest at each resort. I'd have to imagine Uni is a distant-ish second to Disney, and everything else is a VERY distant third, etc to Uni.

Sea World is finished. They have a hopeless CEO who thinks a roller coaster will save them. You couldn't make it up - all that Marine Life ip to play with and they build a coaster. Madness. Don't believe it's all down to the bad publicity of Black fish and welfare, they simply aren't investing anything into their parks.

As is a classic case with theme parks: they had some really impressive plans on the table... and then the beans were counted. I have a friend who worked HARD on the creative side of things, and is terribly disheartened to see it all slashed and cut beyond recognition.

 

[NJBrandon]

2015 Orlando Market Share Update:

MK + EPCOT + AK + DHS = 54,040,000

USF + IOA = 18,377,000

SeaWorld = 4,777,000

Total = 77,194,000

Disney Market Share = 70.0%(-0.9% from last year)

Universal Market Share = 23.8%(+1.2% from last year)

SeaWorld Market Share = 6.2%(-0.3% from last year)

 

[seascape]

2015 Orlando Market Share Update:

MK + EPCOT + AK + DHS = 54,040,000

USF + IOA = 18,377,000

SeaWorld = 4,777,000

Total = 77,194,000

Disney Market Share = 70.0%(-0.9% from last year)

Universal Market Share = 23.8%(+1.2% from last year)

SeaWorld Market Share = 6.2%(-0.3% from last year)

Adding Water parks,
Disney 4,401,000 55.3%
Universal 1,310,000 17.9%
Aquatica 1,600,00 21.9%

Total For all the 3 parks 84,475,000

WDW 58,441,000 69.1%
Universal 19,687,000 23.3%
Sea World 6,377,000 7.5%

 

[lazyboy97o]

While the TEA finances and publishes this report I think it is important to note that they are not the ones doing the actual estimates. The estimates are done by AECOM, a global conglomerate that really got into the themed entertainment analytics market by acquiring Economic Research Associates, the company founded by Harrison "Buzz" Price. Their not some two-bit operation and their business is entirely dependent on this type of work being accurate.

 

[hopemax]

You wanna look at the 10 year trend, the 15 year trend or the 20 year trend?

We look at the big picture, not cherry picking things to support our conclusions....

You don't actually have to look that far back. Thanks to the nice charts from @donsullivan in 2010, the year Harry Potter opened in IOA.

IOA: 5,949,000
USF: 5,925,000
DHS : 9,603,000
AK: 9,686,000
Epcot: 10,825,000

So Universal's deficit was:

IOA: 3.65 Million (DHS), 3.74 Million (AK), 4.88 Million (Epcot)
USF: 3.68 Million (DHS), 3.76 Million (AK), 4.9 Million (Epcot)

2015:

IOA: 8,792,000
USF: 9,585,000
DHS: 10,828,000
AK: 10,922,000
EPCOT: 11,798,000

Universal's deficit is:

IOA: 2.04 Million (AK), 2.13 Million (DHS), 3.01 (Epcot)
USF: 1.24 Million (AK), 1.34 Million (DHS), 2.21 (Epcot)

Five years, and IOA has cut the deficit to AK/DHS by 44%/43% and 38% to Epcot, USF has cut the deficit 66% to AK, 64% to DHS, and 55% to Epcot. Five years! USF numbers are now equivalent to 2010 AK/DHS numbers, and IOA numbers match 2005 AK/DHS numbers. And I expect the opening of Kong to pull IOA numbers closer.

This isn't a football game, where the clock will expire and you can ignore the fact that the other team outscored you 21-10 in the last quarter. Or a horse race, where real estate runs out and you still win, though everyone can clearly see the 2nd place horse was faster in the final stretch. There is no finish line and recently, Disney has said that they are "okay" with attendance declines so what does the future hold? What business wouldn't want to see that sort of improvement vs its competition? It shows that your investments are working.

The biggest thing Universal has gained is not raw attendance, it's the perception of their parks being an "equivalent experience," or at least they've gotten to the point where legitimate discussion can be had, and everyone isn't going to just bust out laughing. Disney fans hope that the war will be won by 2020 when Star Wars opens, but given the different construction timelines, we haven't even SEEN the cards Comcast/Universal is holding. Exciting times (in a good way for a change)!