Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Ghost93]

This weekend will really give us a much clearer picture. My honest guess they expect this at LEAST over $750 million. I'll say again, this was one of the two franchises they have pushed as a big hitter they have left. I'm pretty well documented that I didn't really buy it, but a lot did. If it comes in just "Ok", I think real worry sets in.

Personally, I tried and couldn't make it happen this past weekend. I'm pretty sure I'll get a chance this coming weekend (though I never did get to Thunderbolts even though I really wanted to see that as well).

I am certain they are not expecting $750 million. The bar has been lowered since the MCU brand has been severely damaged due to bad movies and because China is no longer a big market for superhero films, and is no longer adding $100-$200 million to the box office per film. Personally, I think anything over $500 million is a win for Fantastic Four, as it would put it above Black Widow, Shang-Chi, Eternals, Ant-man and the Wasp Quantumania, The Marvels, Captain America 4 and Thunderbolts.

I don't think it's fair to compare F4 to a major crossover event film like Spider-man: No Way home, Deadpool and Wolverine or Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness. And it really can't be compared to Guardians 3, the third in a well-received trilogy.

 

[BrianLo]

I’d say 750M would be a big wish (I mean they probably always wish for the moon, but for reasons I’ve spelt out, that would have been stupid to project more than that). 550-600M is likely the basic expectation. That puts it in the same band (or above) that most of their other successful MCU character launchers approached.

More than anything, Fantastic Four was always supposed to be the biggest of the three this year, which clearly it won’t struggle to meet.

Captain Marvel retroactively was a strange exception. Had the shoes been reversed, I bet Black Widow would have soared in that release slot. Black Panther was an entirely unanticipated breakout cultural event domestically.

Hulk 265M
Captain America 370M
Black Widow 379M
Thunderbolts 382M
Eternals 401M
Cap 4 413M
Shang Chi 432M
Thor 449M
Ant Man 518M
Iron Man 584M
Doctor Strange 676M
Guardians 770M
Spiderman Homecoming 880M
Cap Marvel 1.29B
Black Panther 1.39B

And yes inflation blah blah, but the franchise also clearly isn’t in a peak right now.

As is WBD seems happy with Superman; however we want to parse it, I doubt Superman or Fantastic Four are going anywhere after these reasonable debuts.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Grumble grumble stupid audiences skipping Thunderbolts grumble grumble

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Black Widow 379M

I think Black Widow was the only MCU movie you could pay to watch at home same day as theatrical?

Probably affected its numbers too.

 

[Disney Irish]

I think Black Widow was the only MCU movie you could pay to watch at home same day as theatrical?

Probably affected its numbers too.

Yes which is why Black Widows should always have an * next to it as those Premium D+ sales probably helped it out a lot and aren't reflected in those numbers and should be.

 

[Wendy Pleakley]

Captain Marvel retroactively was a strange exception. Had the shoes been reversed, I bet Black Widow would have soared in that release slot. Black Panther was an entirely unanticipated breakout cultural event domestically.

Captain Marvel was cleverly released right before Endgame, so everyone thought they had to see it in the theaters to be current with the story.

 

[Animaniac93-98]

Weekend actuals are in and Superman did indeed cross $500 million worldwide. For all the talk of it underperforming outside the USA, it doesn't look like Fantastic Four is going to do significantly better and I expect both movies to have similar global totals. Superman is also closing the gap between it and Jurassic World at the domestic box office.

 

[MoonRakerSCM]

Weekend multiplier not great though after Friday. We’ll see if there’s any legs to it but that’s very front loaded. The weekend multiplier was lower than Love and Thunder

Oof. The reality of F4 is, when I got back and spoke with a couple of friends who would go see it, my statement to them was... "Eh, it's good, but not great, wait to watch it on D+"

It wasn't a "OH YEAH, you GOTTA see it asap!"

 

[BrianLo]

Captain Marvel was cleverly released right before Endgame, so everyone thought they had to see it in the theaters to be current with the story.

Indeed and retroactively I think black widow was more meaningful anyways in End Game. She deserved to have a spotlight leading into her sacrifice. Captain Marvel was just an accessory that could have been cut ultimately. Though the post credit scene was great.

 

[TP2000]

It's sweet you all waited and let me do this for the big debut of The Fantastic Four. Sorry I'm late, I was being sociable...

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for September 5, 2025

Weekend Domestic Box Office Chart for the weekend of September 5, 2025

thenumbers.com

 

[TP2000]

$118 opening weekend should likely end up somewhere in the $650 million range worldwide, I’d call that both a success ($150m profit) and a bit of a failure (considering many thought it might be a $1b film).

Continuing a Box Office Magic trend from last week, it's slightly weakened numbers probably had to do with the fact that the entire Western third of the country continued to be 4 to 7 degrees below normal through this weekend. In San Diego this past Saturday, it was downright chilly by the time Happy Hour was over at The Marine Room!

This weekend will really give us a much clearer picture. My honest guess they expect this at LEAST over $750 million.

In bad news for theater owners, as I suspected the cooler than normal June/July west of the Rockies is turning into a cooler than normal August east of the Rockies. That's not good news for theaters, but great news for hot dog stands at the beach!

 

[LSLS]

Weekend actuals are in and Superman did indeed cross $500 million worldwide. For all the talk of it underperforming outside the USA, it doesn't look like Fantastic Four is going to do significantly better and I expect both movies to have similar global totals. Superman is also closing the gap between it and Jurassic World at the domestic box office.

Honestly I feel like Superman should do better than F4. Beyond everything else, I will still contend Superman is a much bigger and well-known character than F4.

 

[BrianLo]

A reasonable surrogate for “is the company happy” is when they press release about metrics after the fact.

In fact there is currently a 1:1 correlation going on right now with when they brag about trailer viewership and 1B film.

Films they have bragged about metrics this year are Stitch obviously, Moana 2’s streaming numbers and this weekend of Fantastic 4. Notably they did not talk about Snow White, Cap 4, Thunderbolts nor Elio.

So while I can say neither Superman nor Fantastic Four set the entire world on fire in an unexpected blazing glory, they really both seem to be hitting numbers that are making their parent companies happy.

 

[Dranth]

Honestly I feel like Superman should do better than F4. Beyond everything else, I will still contend Superman is a much bigger and well-known character than F4.

Superman is certainly more well known, but personally I don't get how it is doing so well. I understand I am in the minority on this, but I felt it was an odd combination of boring, ham-fisted, and cheesy, particularly in the first half.

As for FF, I do wonder if it is a bit front loaded as the appetite for this movie seems pretty low from where I am sitting but I could have said the same thing about Superman and it is doing fine.

Maybe it is just me, but this entire year seems kind of blah for the box office.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

A reasonable surrogate for “is the company happy” is when they press release about metrics after the fact.

In fact there is currently a 1:1 correlation going on right now with when they brag about trailer viewership and 1B film.

Films they have bragged about metrics this year are Stitch obviously, Moana 2’s streaming numbers and this weekend of Fantastic 4. Notably they did not talk about Snow White, Cap 4, Thunderbolts nor Elio.

So while I can say neither Superman nor Fantastic Four set the entire world on fire in an unexpected blazing glory, they really both seem to be hitting numbers that are making their parent companies happy.

Umm…that’s putting a narrative out there…so let’s see what the actual story looks like in a week or two?

I think you know better than to go for the shiny object on a slow news day

 

[BrianLo]

Umm…that’s putting a narrative out there…so let’s see what the actual story looks like in a week or two?

I think you know better than to go for the shiny object on a slow news day

The narrative is, is the company happy with the opening weekend. Not the total performance. There is no total performance yet. If they stop bragging about metrics long term, that answers that question.

For example they didn’t brag about Mufasa opening weekend but eventually left some performance metrics in their year end review.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The narrative is, is the company happy with the opening weekend. Not the total performance. There is no total performance yet. If they stop bragging about metrics long term, that answers that question.

For example they didn’t brag about Mufasa opening weekend but eventually left some performance metrics in their year end review.

The declaration is curious considering how much they emphasis has grown on “rebooting the MCU”…they’re likely not that Impressed with this…per se…but money is tightening across the board and they want to get some groundswell of support going at the box office

It’s smart. I want to see how it does this weekend? Neither it nor Superman will be a mega hit…but it seems clear from the Hollywood press articles that the powers that be want to make it good enough? Whether the math seems to say? will be debated.

Most is very positive…then there’s this Forbes hit piece:

‘Fantastic Four’ Underwhelms, ‘Superman’ Soars Higher At Box Office

What does the box office bow of "The Fantastic Four" tell us about the potential for Marvel's upcoming reset? And is "Superman" setting the stage for DC's own resurgence?

www.forbes.com

 

[DKampy]

The declaration is curious considering how much they emphasis has grown on “rebooting the MCU”…they’re likely not that Impressed with this…per se…but money is tightening across the board and they want to get some groundswell of support going at the box office

It’s smart. I want to see how it does this weekend? Neither it nor Superman will be a mega hit…but it seems clear from the Hollywood press articles that the powers that be want to make it good enough? Water the math seems to say.

Most is very positive…then there’s this Forbes hit piece:

‘Fantastic Four’ Underwhelms, ‘Superman’ Soars Higher At Box Office

What does the box office bow of "The Fantastic Four" tell us about the potential for Marvel's upcoming reset? And is "Superman" setting the stage for DC's own resurgence?

www.forbes.com

People need to wheel in their expectations…. No movie is making what it would of made pre-COVID

Jurassic was always a reliable billion dollar franchise….Rebirth is not going to come close to that money…Even Stitch would have made more…. I believe it would have been closer to The Lion King remake money…. There are just some people that got use to spending more time in the home

Both Superman’s and F4’s main priority was to change the narrative and not be an outright flop…I believe both have done that as most of of the chatter has been positive…. I think either franchise has enough data to keep going in this direction…. Unless F4 completely falls of a cliff and has one of the worse drops in history next weekend…. But I don’t see that happening with word of mouth and the upcoming competition in August

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

People need to wheel in their expectations…. No movie is making what it would of made pre-COVID

Jurassic was always a reliable billion dollar franchise….Rebirth is not going to come close to that money…Even Stitch would have made more…. I believe it would have been closer to The Lion King remake money…. There are just some people that got use to spending more time in the home

Both Superman’s and F4’s main priority was to change the narrative and not be an outright flop…I believe both have done that as most of of the chatter has been positive…. I think either franchise has enough data to keep going in this direction…. Unless F4 completely falls of a cliff and has one of the worse drops in history next weekend…. But I don’t see that happening with word of mouth and the upcoming competition in August

Well I sorta agree with you…

Not every whizz bang is gonna make alot of bank in the current theater business…but some certainly have. You just don’t get as many.

My personal theory is that a tentpole that’s decent might make 75-80ish % now what they had pre-Covid…things being equal.

But still…don’t give a pass for bad product or ideas. Just as wdw annual attendance went down by 5,000,000 or so after shutdown…there’s actually no real excuse for it now. It went “poof” and covid doesn’t play any more.

Movies that strike a cord will get em there still

 

[Tha Realest]

The Chris Evans FF made $333M, or $550M inflation adjusted to today. I think it’ll clear that? Maybe?

We’ll know soon enough…