Disney (and others) at the Box Office - Current State of Affairs

[Tha Realest]

Variety is claiming Superman had a marketing budget of $100 million. I don't believe it, but that's what they wrote. If true, you're looking at a $325-350 break even.

Variety is one of the Trusted Media Sources.

 

[AdventureHasAName]

I think you mean break even of $650M-$700M, if you are using (Production Budget+Marketing) and doubling it, as studios only take approximately half of the box office, instead of using the standard 2.5x Production Budget that everyone else uses.

That's an outdated metric, especially since the studios are taking a much larger percentage of the opening weekend box office in the modern movie space. It's closer to 110-125% of budget + marketing, not double.

 

[Disney Irish]

That's an outdated metric, especially since the studios are taking a much larger percentage of the opening weekend box office in the modern movie space. It's closer to 110% of budget + marketing, not double.

Ok, never heard of this new "metric" and I follow this stuff pretty closely, and really that is just saying that a movie is front-loaded which we already know (as its not new) and is already accounted for in many cases especially in the 2.5x metric. But still you have to account for them only taking approximately half the box office, so still it can't be $325M-$350M for break even when the budget is $225M and Marketing according to what you say Variety says is $100M.

So either your wording here is bad, or you've miscalculated, or maybe even misunderstood the "metric".

 

[AdventureHasAName]

Ok, never heard of this new "metric" and I follow this stuff pretty closely, and really that is just saying that a movie is front-loaded which we already know (as its not new) and is already accounted for in many cases especially in the 2.5x metric. But still you have to account for them only taking approximately half the box office, so still it can't be $325M-$350M for break even when the budget is $225M and Marketing according to what you say Variety says is $100M.

So either your wording here is bad, or you've miscalculated, or maybe even misunderstood the "metric".

No, I'm not saying that movies are frontloaded. They are, but everyone knows that. What I am saying is that a recent change in modern cinema is the percentage the studios take from the opening weekend gross receipts. On tentpole films, it's not 50/50. Yes the movies are frontloaded ... and the studios are getting a much higher percentage of that front loaded opening weekend than they ever did when that x2.5 concept was created.

 

[Disney Irish]

No, I'm not saying that movies are frontloaded. They are, but everyone knows that. What I am saying is that a recent change in modern cinema is the percentage the studios take from the opening weekend gross receipts. On tentpole films, it's not 50/50. Yes the movies are frontloaded ... and the studios are getting a much higher percentage of that front loaded opening weekend than they ever did when that x2.5 concept was created.

Again not new information, this has been the case for a decade or more, where studios take more opening weekend.

But let’s say this is somehow “new, then how prey tell does one know what the splits for opening weekend are and calculate them? Since splits can vary from studio to studio and theater to theater and even country to country.

Not to even talk about the fact that studios still don’t get all their money upfront on opening weekend. Because that opening weekend split dramatically drops every subsequent weekend there after. Still making it impossible for break even to be so low. Because if what you’re saying is true, and I’d love to know where you got this “new” metric, then a movies total only ever has to match (or 110% as you say) its production budget plus marketing cost without ever having to calculate for a split with theaters, which is completely counter to any calculation done since the beginning of when these metrics were tracked. And basically then puts into question almost every Disney movie deemed a failure that at least made a total of at least its own budget+marketing, and I’m not sure you want to do that.

 

[Serpico Jones]

It is hardly flopping overseas.

$95m ow overseas for a movie with an enormous budget is a flop.

 

[AdventureHasAName]

Again not new information, this has been the case for a decade or more, where studios take more opening weekend.

But let’s say this is somehow “new, then how prey tell does one know what the splits for opening weekend are and calculate them? Since splits can vary from studio to studio and theater to theater and even country to country.

The trades know. They have theater owners leaking the numbers to them.

And basically then puts into question almost every Disney movie deemed a failure that at least made a total of at least its own budget+marketing, and I’m not sure you want to do that.

*shrugs shoulders*

I really couldn't care less about that. My general assumption is that, except for a very rare handful of films (Lion King remake, Toy Story films), Disney's films are generally not getting an elevated first weekend cut of the receipts ... but I don't really care.

 

[Disney Irish]

The trades know. They have theater owners leaking the numbers to them.

And yet the trades tend to use the 2.5x rule of thumb. So make it make sense? Also please provide where you got this "new" "metric". Because if the trades don't use it, then why would we use it around here over the 2.5x that they do tend to use, or even the "double" metric?

Also just an FYI, the 2.5x IS the updated metric for "rule of thumb". As it used to be 1.5x or 2.0x prior to that back in the 90s and early 2000s. So the 2.5x has been updated for the "modern cinema" for the late 2010s and beyond.

*shrugs shoulders*

I really couldn't care less about that. My general assumption is that, except for a very rare handful of films (Lion King remake, Toy Story films), Disney's films are generally not getting an elevated first weekend cut of the receipts ... but I don't really care.

But yet if you follow along with the box office discussion Disney strong arms their way into higher splits than almost every other studio, especially opening weekend and especially for their marquee franchises like the MCU. So that means an MCU movie like Cap4, which many around here claimed was a failure (including you I believe), actually did better than break even. Because it did $413M WW which is more than its reported $180M budget + ~$100M marketing, as according to your "new" "metric" it only needed to clear $398M using the 110% Budget + Marketing. So you telling me you really don't care about that?

 

[Tony the Tigger]

$95m ow overseas for a movie with an enormous budget is a flop.

This is ridiculous. It’s close to what was made in the US. That’s fine. It may be a little soft, but using the word “flop“ is simply inaccurate. You seem to have some kind of agenda.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

$95m ow overseas for a movie with an enormous budget is a flop.

This is ridiculous. It’s close to what was made in the US. That’s fine. It may be a little soft, but using the word “flop“ is simply inaccurate. You seem to have some kind of agenda.

It’s not “a flop”…but has almost zero chance to turn a profit at the box office

 

[Nevermore525]

This is ridiculous. It’s close to what was made in the US. That’s fine. It may be a little soft, but using the word “flop“ is simply inaccurate. You seem to have some kind of agenda.

Its opening weekend overseas is on par with Captain America 4. Call it what you will but that’s the kind of revenue it is generating.

Domestically outshined Cap 4 by $40M over the OW

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Correct. He actually likes Star Wars movies, which goes against the official requirements of being a Star Wars Fan.

Easy, grumpus…the reality is they sunk their ship…that had nothing to do with fans…that had to do with terrible people put in charge of them

Just BAD movies. What’s done is done

The record is what it is now

Anybody catch this one on the wire today?

Rian Johnson Says His Scrapped ‘Star Wars’ Trilogy Was ‘Very Conceptual’ and ‘Never’ Had an ‘Outline or Treatment or Anything’: ‘Nothing Really Happened With It’

Rian Johnson says he scrapped 'Star Wars' trilogy was 'very conceptual' and 'never' had an 'outline or treatment or anything.'

variety.com

 

[Disney Irish]

Easy, grumpus…the reality is they sunk their ship…that had nothing to do with fans…that had to do with terrible people out in charge of them

Just BAD movies. What’s done is done

The record is what it is now

Anybody catch this one on the wire today?

Rian Johnson Says His Scrapped ‘Star Wars’ Trilogy Was ‘Very Conceptual’ and ‘Never’ Had an ‘Outline or Treatment or Anything’: ‘Nothing Really Happened With It’

Rian Johnson says he scrapped 'Star Wars' trilogy was 'very conceptual' and 'never' had an 'outline or treatment or anything.'

variety.com

So basically add it to this weeks “duh” file? I think pretty much everyone universally knew there was nothing happening with him after they took a “pause” on movies.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Its opening weekend overseas is on par with Captain America 4. Call it what you will but that’s the kind of revenue it is generating.

Domestically outshined Cap 4 by $40M over the OW

It was a much better movie than Captain America 4…so at least there’s that

 

[Tha Realest]

So here’s how I view Superman (2025):

1) In one sense, it’s a nice palate cleanser start to the DCU. It is one of Gunn’s lower films in terms of critical acclaim, and did *well enough* I guess out of the gate. WBD and DCU lives on for now. It seems to be well received for the most part by fans,* and I think it does a great job world building and establishing some great parts of the DCU. Please, more Mr. Terrific.

2) But. In another sense, as some have pointed out, it may not eke out a profit. That may not be a problem for WBD, which is operating less like a studio and seemingly more like a money laundering operation. Superman also barely clear the domestic opening weekend numbers for Man of Steel (unadjusted for inflation, and over a decade ago). That film’s performance was also well received but WB didn’t feel like it did as well as it should, hence the “break glass in case of emergency” move to shoehorn Batman in the sequel and build out a nascent film universe.

3) I think WOM will be good enough to get repeat visitors and hold an audience. But FF is on the horizon in a few weeks and that’ll substantially eat into its legs.

*Some Snyderverse holdouts will never let it go.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So basically add it to this weeks “duh” file? I think pretty much everyone universally knew there was nothing happening with him after they took a “pause” on movies.

It was obvious…of course

You know how many “faithful” kept posting references to that like it was a “thing” on threads for 5+ years?

A few will definitely be distraught. Disneys investors won’t be among them

 

[Tha Realest]

So basically add it to this weeks “duh” file? I think pretty much everyone universally knew there was nothing happening with him after they took a “pause” on movies.

But that article earlier this year bolstering Kennedy’s position at Lucasfilm specifically mentioned her continued work on this film series. Was Kennedy (or the reporter’s) source lying? Both Kennedy and Johnson have insisted over the years the project wasn’t dead, before and after “the pause” (2019?)

 

[Disney Irish]

But that article earlier this year bolstering Kennedy’s position at Lucasfilm specifically mentioned her continued work on this film series. Was Kennedy (or the reporter’s) source lying? Both Kennedy and Johnson have insisted over the years the project wasn’t dead, before and after “the pause” (2019?)

We don’t know how it was presented to the reporter. For example if they said something like “we continue to talk about it but nothing has specifically been set in stone yet”, it wasn’t untruthful or contradictory to what is said in this new article. It’s all in how the information was presented, ie common Hollywood speak of non-committal.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

But that article earlier this year bolstering Kennedy’s position at Lucasfilm specifically mentioned her continued work on this film series. Was Kennedy (or the reporter’s) source lying? Both Kennedy and Johnson have insisted over the years the project wasn’t dead, before and after “the pause” (2019?)

I can’t imagine how many boxes of tissues she goes through a week?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

We don’t know how it was presented to the reporter. For example if they said something like “we continue to talk about it but nothing has specifically been set in stone yet”, it wasn’t untruthful or contradictory to what is said in this new article. It’s all in how the information was presented, ie common Hollywood speak of non-committal.

The point was…that was crap. And it never for a minute could even reasonably claim to pass the common sense test.

Which is how things can and should be.

In a way…it’s reassuring. Doubling down on disaster should NEVER be a possibility…and it says a lot that Disney has made that “possible” in such matters