Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Parker in NYC]

I love that people are now disputing numbers out of Florida. The madness continues.

 

[sullyinMT]

At the risk then of turning it political? Is it all who everyone assumes it is?

Of course are you talking about the South or do you have access to it nationally?

They have repeatedly stated that they have access to local, state, national, and a level of international data as a member of various committees. It was not a political statement in the least. The unvaccinated are illustrating why "slow the spread" and "flatten the curve" were buzz phrases last year. If we'd have meaningfully implemented CDC guidance as a society and actually enforced masks for the unvaccinated, this spike would have occurred but far less severely.

Looking at the highest vaccinated states, it appears that their curve, while steep, is showing potential of fizzling out soon with a plateau in infection rate (the rough R0 estimations on various sites). All while not causing a surge in hospitalizations that endangers the rest of the public health needs of their population.

Meanwhile, every single level one trauma center in the Atlanta Metro (an area chosen since I still have family and friend ties to it) is on diversion. Every one. So be careful driving I-75, 85, or 20 on your way to WDW.

 

[Timmay]

Sure, people are hard at work on that:

A Black Market in COVID-19 Vaccination Cards Was Inevitable

Given my warnings about the dawning age of vaccine passports, it shouldn't have surprised me when my phone rang over…

reason.com

People are always talking about how everyone came together for the country during WWII. They don’t realize there was a rather impressive ration card forgery network operating at that time.

 

[sullyinMT]

There seems to be only one poster here today who wants to make this political.

Hospitalizations are up everywhere, but the vast majority of these are unvaccinated, as I referenced. But the generally far lower rates of vaccination have left the south particularly vulnerable, and we are seeing the result in their hospitalization numbers currently.

The low population density in the Plains states is probably offering them a slight buffer, but with their low vaccination rates as well, delta will eventually rip through them too.

Don't count on it. Eastern MT is still plains, and is out of ICU beds from Great Falls to Billings. Not sure of what west of the divide looks like.

 

[Willmark]

I love that people are now disputing numbers out of Florida. The madness continues.

I may have missed it, who is doing that? Can you point me to a post or poster that did that?

 

[Parker in NYC]

Don't count on it. Eastern MT is still plains, and is out of ICU beds from Great Falls to Billings. Not sure of what west of the divide looks like.

But no one’s dying, right? So, nothing to see here. I mean, even if they were - they’d be fat, old, or have underlying health issues…

 

[LaughingGravy]

At the risk then of turning it political? Is it all who everyone assumes it is?

Of course are you talking about the South or do you have access to it nationally?

The focus should be the unvaccinated being the clear majority of folks now in the hospitals and dying over this.
The almost amusing (but aren't because people are dying and will die or become sick long term because of them) are those leading others with the idea that masks and vaccines should not be required, yet have been vaccinated knowing they will more than likely be fine and keeping that vaccinated status a secret, lest they be called out as hypocrites, when asked and give a non answer under the guise of "a personal decision".

 

[oceanbreeze77]

I love that people are now disputing numbers out of Florida. The madness continues.

no time to cook the books this time....

 

[Willmark]

The focus should be the unvaccinated being the clear majority of folks now in the hospitals and dying over this.

I agree it should be on them, my point is this thread has been rife with assumptions on who that is. I’m wondering if anyone has data on that, so far it seems no one does.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Unfortunately CV19 will never be completely eliminated. It will be with us forever just like the flu.

I heard that the CDC is recommending that pregnant women get vaccinated, I’m not sure how I feel about that. It seems risky to me, sure glad I’m not faced with having to make the choice.

I understand maybe women that are pregnant being hesitant about getting the vaccine but it was a big study of over 2,500 pregnant women during all periods of pregnancy. It’s safe and all should get it. Some of the stories of pregnant women getting COVID are horrible so really since it’s been proven safe it’s a no brainer.

 

[FanforDisney]

No. That is wrong because it's only part of the story. The vaccines...

1. Mitigate the effects of COVID *if* COVID gets a foothold in your system. This, according to the CDC, happens rarely compared to those who are unvaccinated.
2. Can keep COVID from getting a foothold in your your body in the first place. This is why, tho breakthroughs happen and are contagious, they happen *rarely* compared to the unvaccinated.

So, you and others need to stop spinning the new lie that the vaccine cannot possibly eliminate COVID. If everyone was vaccinated, the *rare* breakthroughs would bring the R-naught of the virus below 1.0, and the virus could die out.

Measles is as contagious as the new COVID variant and it is contained by vaccinations... except it's kept 'alive' by the unvaccinated around the world, and now, among the anti-vaxxers in the U.S. If the world governments treated measles like they did with Small Pox, it could already have been eliminated, and we wouldn't have to keep vaccinating people for it.

It only seems like COVID is unbeatable because we're still ramping up vaccine production for 7 billion people... and fighting the obstinate anti-vaxxers.

Delta is not close to Measles rate. Measles is 2.5 times more contagious. Also the CDC mislead stating that its as contagious as chickenpox. Delta is bad. Hopefully in the next few weeks we start seeing a drop....
"When NPR raised the CDC document's inaccuracy that made the Delta variant seem more fearsome, a federal official admitted "the leaked document underestimated the R0 for chickenpox and overestimated the R0 for the delta variant."

 

[Nubs70]

I agree it should be on them, my point is this thread has been rife with assumptions on who that is. I’m wondering if anyone has data on that, so far it seems no one does.

And how do we know that variants are originating solely in the unvaccinated?

 

[Club34]

Thanks for the history lesson but for anti vaxers including ones who got and recovered from covid and think they are now immune - be a responsible person and just get the shot .

But here is an honest question... Do we have actual data/reliable information on immunity? (if anyone does- please post or send to me) I don't hear too many outlets even mention it. Is it a factor or not? Given the gravity, it is beyond odd that this is not meaningfully part of the discussion or meaningfully shown that it is a non-factor. This should be concerning to anyone following along regardless of their position.

I watched a health official this morning (from the CDC or FDA) say that we are not tracking/contact tracing Delta in the US in any widespread manner. I understand the message- vaccines are safe and the most effective defense (and I don't disagree) but will variants outrun the vaccine and we are just contending with wave after wave in perpetuity. I cannot predict accurately what that will mean long term but given how the world has dealt with the pandemic thus far over 18+ months, it does appear as if it will play out well. I hope I am embarrassingly wrong.

Hospitalization and deaths are not the point. The point is the elimination of Covid infection. If no infection there will be no transmission thus neither hospitalization nor death.

Current vaccines fail to eliminate infection.

I agree with this point that I think you are trying to make. But I don't think I have heard anyone say the elimination of the virus is the goal. It should be the goal. But I think you and @mmascari are talking past each other. I would say this or ask our "leaders"... What is the plan with the virus? Is it containment/harm reduction or is it elimination? You can do both, mind you, but I don't think anyone here has heard any "leader" outline this plan specifically and certainly not explain what the measures that are being done mean for the big picture. And I would gather that we are not going to. Any if folks doubt this take, just look how we started with regards to mask messaging, etc.

None of this (including my statement above) should be construed as a position on the vaccine. I am a reluctant/skeptical vaccine adopter from all the way back in January/early February as I work in a hospital. But there is a big layer of this situation that is not being discussed in the broader public but we have reduced it to vaccine or no. I appreciate the position/concern, but I don't know what it is really doing at this point.

Cases are surging (apparently?) and there should be at least slightly heightened concern that the newer variants are (apparently?) impacting kids. I don't have kids but I often hear that is important to people. So we'll see how that impacts positions and behavior.

No. That is wrong because it's only part of the story. The vaccines...

1. Mitigate the effects of COVID *if* COVID gets a foothold in your system. This, according to the CDC, happens rarely compared to those who are unvaccinated.
2. Can keep COVID from getting a foothold in your your body in the first place. This is why, tho breakthroughs happen and are contagious, they happen *rarely* compared to the unvaccinated.

So, you and others need to stop spinning the new lie that the vaccine cannot possibly eliminate COVID. If everyone was vaccinated, the *rare* breakthroughs would bring the R-naught of the virus below 1.0, and the virus could die out.

Measles is as contagious as the new COVID variant and it is contained by vaccinations... except it's kept 'alive' by the unvaccinated around the world, and now, among the anti-vaxxers in the U.S. If the world governments treated measles like they did with Small Pox, it could already have been eliminated, and we wouldn't have to keep vaccinating people for it.

It only seems like COVID is unbeatable because we're still ramping up vaccine production for 7 billion people... and fighting the obstinate anti-vaxxers.

I, in general, like the position/argument here but I don't think the other poster is wrong either. However question from the dumbest forum member (me), are there differences between the 2 diseases/vaccine situations you describe here? I don't know, so I am asking. We know that the current Covid vaccine does not make one immune. Merely protected. It is still prophylactic in that regard. How does that compare to the mechanism and outcome of the measles vaccine? Is it the same thing?

I agree that the R-naught thing should be a goal. The goal. Do we know that it is? Why is it not being presented this way?

 

[Heppenheimer]

Not really.

It’s been the contention throughout this thread and others that were closed that people KNOW in no uncertain terms who isn’t getting vaccinated which drifts into politics. Which is to say everything does these days

Given your profession I wondered if you would clear it up, I guess not.

Every state health department (or at least, for every state I have checked) runs a dashboard that provides data on vaccination. They don't break down by political affiliation, but it does by age, geographic area (most states report county data, some use other geographic definitions), sex and ethnicity. This is all publicly available information that anyone can access.

The pattern everywhere is young adults lagging every other age demographic in vaccination. Curiously, when broken down by young teenagers vs older teenagers, the rate for older teens is significantly higher.

The ethnic breakdown varies more from state to state, but usually indicates Asian-Americans with the highest rates, followed by whites, although Native Americans have higher rates in some states.

 

[LaughingGravy]

I agree it should be on them, my point is this thread has been rife with assumptions on who that is. I’m wondering if anyone has data on that, so far it seems no one does.

I could be wrong, but nobody cares to present data on that because it doesn't matter. There may be some coincidences mentioned somewhere in over 4100 pages and quite a bit of personal anecdotal stories supporting such things, but it appears the clear majority are moving on and focusing on doing our best to successfully convince the reluctant to get vaccinated if they can ( with some nice results reported recently! Yay!), so we can get past this as much as possible.

 

[GoofGoof]

I love that people are now disputing numbers out of Florida. The madness continues.

no time to cook the books this time....

Everyone here knows I’ve been very critical of the government in FL throughout this pandemic, but in this case something is very wrong and concerning. The difference between FDOH numbers and the CDC numbers was huge. FL makes up 20-25% of the National cases. If the CDC numbers for FL are overstated then the National numbers are highly impacted as well. Decisions are being made based on those numbers so they need to be as accurate as possible. If we lay the politics aside all people should want to know what the correct numbers are even if that means they look better or worse than we thought or were hoping for.

The CDC states that their numbers may differ from the state DOH numbers and that people should defer to the DOH as being more up to date.

 

[Willmark]

Every state health department (or at least, for every state I have checked) runs a dashboard that provides data on vaccination. They don't break down by political affiliation,

Exactly my point.

The pattern everywhere is young adults lagging every other age demographic in vaccination. Curiously, when broken down by young teenagers vs older teenagers, the rate for older teens is significantly higher.

I think you’re on to something. Perhaps the better way to look at this is age range/brackets and the % of people vaccinated rather than the overall number as it doesn’t effect every age range the same, no?

The ethnic breakdown varies more from state to state, but usually indicates Asian-Americans with the highest rates, followed by whites, although Native Americans have higher rates in some states.

To me, economic is probably the best indicator of likelihood to vaccinate, could be wrong.

 

[sullyinMT]

I agree it should be on them, my point is this thread has been rife with assumptions on who that is. I’m wondering if anyone has data on that, so far it seems no one does.

It’s pretty simple for someone who wants to do it to dig out county-level vaccine data and see where the lowest rates lie.

In some cases, very rural counties with less than maybe 5-10K residents are likely to have extremely delayed data and be at relatively low risk due to population density and a natural propensity to social distancing. Outbreaks could look really bad on paper for a couple weeks but fizzle just as quick in such areas if they remain extremely low-vax.

How people voted doesn’t matter. I know the talking head gasbags on every network try to rile up their viewers for ratings, but public health officials vote all over the spectrum, too, and are only interested in getting cities/counties/states to lower their relative risk by increasing vaccine acceptance.

 

[Timmay]

I agree it should be on them, my point is this thread has been rife with assumptions on who that is. I’m wondering if anyone has data on that, so far it seems no one does.

Check out the Kaiser Family Foundation study, as well as this…

Who Are the Unvaccinated in America? There’s No One Answer.

One segment of people who have avoided shots is vehemently opposed to the idea. But there is a second group, surveys suggest, that is still deciding.

www.nytimes.com

 

[GoofGoof]

Exactly my point.





I think your in to something. Perhaps the better way to look at this is age range and the % of people vaccinated rather than the overall number as it doesn’t effect every age range the same, no?


To me, economic is probably the best indicator of likelihood to vaccinate, could be wrong.

In the polling that was done education (which generally lines up with income level) was a large factor. If you look at the other demographics that may actually explain a big part. Rural < Urban on vaccinations. Urban/suburban = higher income/education. Lower income urban areas in major cities lag their suburban and more affluent suburban areas. When we look at politics Republicans lag in vaccination vs dem and ind but if you dig deeper it’s the rural, more evangelical areas that are highly Republican and lower vaccination. That’s not to say some people aren’t acting purely on politics, but anecdotally I know a lot of well off, suburban Republicans who voted for Trump (both times) and are still vaccinated so it’s not just purely politics at work. These are all just generalizations based on polling so take it for what it is.

One issue could be that people who are generally less educated may be less likely to listen to, relate to or trust a bunch of PHDs and experts like Fauci who are the ones being used to talk about the vaccines. There needs to be a shift in the PR campaign but I don’t know how to propose they do that since I am not in the group we need to reach.