Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DonniePeverley]

Don’t want to jinx it but we are now halfway through a week and the United States, including most states appear to be plateauing. This includes Florida, that may mean we are just about at peak for this wave. What’s fascinating is that places in the Midwest and Northeast where the current wave started later then Florida are also plateauing at the same time.

If you think that is a plateau i suggest you are wishful thinking.

 

[DisneyFan32]

Is this wave to be very last one as more people will be vaccinated soon as possible by end of the year or early 2022? As booster vaccines to stop future variants as slowing spreading into as the pandemic will be ending in USA, as the pandemic will continue the rest of the world.

 

[Willmark]

How about just mandating the vaccine? How about we just do that?

Sure, people are hard at work on that:

A Black Market in COVID-19 Vaccination Cards Was Inevitable

Given my warnings about the dawning age of vaccine passports, it shouldn't have surprised me when my phone rang over the weekend and an old college buddy

reason.com

 

[Bob Harlem]

Don’t want to jinx it but we are now halfway through a week and the United States, including most states appear to be plateauing. This includes Florida, that may mean we are just about at peak for this wave. What’s fascinating is that places in the Midwest and Northeast where the current wave started later then Florida are also plateauing at the same time. View attachment 579235View attachment 579237View attachment 579238View attachment 579239View attachment 579240View attachment 579236

A UF study backs this up too, by the way. November is the next likely inflection point. August 18th is the date called out for the current wave's peak.

University of Florida study predicts when delta surge is expected to peak

The peak is far higher than previous surges but the surge is also expected to cease more quickly.

www.wesh.com

 

[DisneyFan32]

A UF study backs this up too, by the way. November is the next likely inflection point. August 18th is the date called out for it.

University of Florida study predicts when delta surge is expected to peak

The peak is far higher than previous surges but the surge is also expected to cease more quickly.

www.wesh.com

I'm scared about next variant shows up before end of the year, is really gonna happen by December if new variant is more dangerous than Delta. Heck this November and December makes Thanksgiving and Christmas will have new dangerous variant as worse than Delta. I'm so worried about now.

 

[correcaminos]

My friend is an oncologist at our university hospital. They are receiving a booster tomorrow.

To clarify my friend is a transplant patient and part of a study. I'm all for getting 3rd shots to those in need. However until studies are concluded for the general population we need to focus on 1st shots for unvaccinated

 

[correcaminos]

It is so wild that the opposite has seem to be true. I did not investigate but I know there was at least a report saying that there was a percentage trend that those who had it before will actually more likely to get it again through Delta.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7032e1.htm

 

[Deanieb59]

I'm vaccinated. I get the whole "its my choice" thing. Not long ago we all saw mask requirements lessening and the idea of a return to a mask-less society once again. WRONG! So now masks are being suggested, recommended and required depending on the location, venue etc. The thing I don't like is that I have to wear a mask to protect those who aren't vaccinated. Why isn't it that only the unvaccinated are required? I feel like I'm going backwards and have to continue to wear it. I don't want to see anyone sick. I do believe its really and many people have been sick and have died as a result. Just not sure I get the mask rules right now. Maybe its just me.

 

[James J]

I'm vaccinated. I get the whole "its my choice" thing. Not long ago we all saw mask requirements lessening and the idea of a return to a mask-less society once again. WRONG! So now masks are being suggested, recommended and required depending on the location, venue etc. The thing I don't like is that I have to wear a mask to protect those who aren't vaccinated. Why isn't it that only the unvaccinated are required? I feel like I'm going backwards and have to continue to wear it. I don't want to see anyone sick. I do believe its really and many people have been sick and have died as a result. Just not sure I get the mask rules right now. Maybe its just me.

They tried that with the honour system. It didn't work as the unvaccinated followed the rules for vaccinated people.

 

[Club34]

Perhaps early 2022 as things may go back to normal as zero cases but end of the year is still possible as maybe.

Don't get me wrong. I hope you are correct. But the only semi-real evidence I am seeing is the case rates and the mortality rates. But those are occurring despite our piecemeal, haphazard, disconnected way of contending with the pandemic. Currently, the public is entrenched in an either/or mode and it is not playing out well.

 

[Touchdown]

They tried that with the honour system. It didn't work as the unvaccinated followed the rules for vaccinated people.

This is categorically not true as pointed out multiple times, I’m not writing it again.

Vaccinated can catch delta, which would mean 2 weeks of having to call in sick from work for you. Once cases drop and we go back to moderate and low level transmission you can take the mask off. Nationwide we appear to be at the cusp of the peak of this wave, meaning mask mandates will be removed in 2-5 weeks most likely.

 

[Horizons '83]

Don’t want to jinx it but we are now halfway through a week and the United States, including most states appear to be plateauing. This includes Florida, that may mean we are just about at peak for this wave. What’s fascinating is that places in the Midwest and Northeast where the current wave started later then Florida are also plateauing at the same time. View attachment 579235View attachment 579237View attachment 579238View attachment 579239View attachment 579240View attachment 579236

I've always looked at the 2 week average vs. daily cases. Once you see a solid week where cases are flat, then you have a true plateau, though I do hope you're right

As a side note, not that most here need to hear this, but further confirmation that vaccines are extremely effective in preventing deaths, my home state Georgia 2 week average of deaths is about 17, and 4,800 cases. Flip back to February 10th 2021, which had the same 2 week average in cases, but had an average of 130 deaths. That is quite a stark difference there.

 

[carolina_yankee]

Don’t want to jinx it but we are now halfway through a week and the United States, including most states appear to be plateauing. This includes Florida, that may mean we are just about at peak for this wave. What’s fascinating is that places in the Midwest and Northeast where the current wave started later then Florida are also plateauing at the same time. View attachment 579235View attachment 579237View attachment 579238View attachment 579239View attachment 579240View attachment 579236

I've noticed that the rate of increase listed in The NY Times is definitely slowing (but still very high). Wasn't there a guesstimate that there would be peaking around mid to late August? We're pretty much on target if that's the case.

Overall, I think "peaking" is way too optimistic, but the rate of increase is probably slowing. You probably have a more thorough read of the numbers given your background.

 

[Nubs70]

They tried that with the honour system. It didn't work as the unvaccinated followed the rules for vaccinated people.

Yet the vaccinated can stil contract and transmit the virus to both vaccinated and unvaccinated. The vaccine is not effective in eliminating the virus.

 

[Touchdown]

I've noticed that the rate of increase listed in The NY Times is definitely slowing (but still very high). Wasn't there a guesstimate that there would be peaking around mid to late August? We're pretty much on target if that's the case.

Overall, I think "peaking" is way too optimistic, but the rate of increase is probably slowing. You probably have a more thorough read of the numbers given your background.

Delta waves around the world have looked a lot more like mountains as opposed to hills with a rapid increase quickly giving way to a rapid decrease this happens here too.

 

[Andrew C]

Yet the vaccinated can stil contract and transmit the virus to both vaccinated and unvaccinated. The vaccine is not effective in eliminating the virus.

Yet who is making up well over 90% (closer to 99% or more in many areas) of the hospitalizations and deaths right now?

 

[Nubs70]

Yet who is making up well over 90% (closer to 99% or more in many areas) of the hospitalizations and deaths right now?

Hospitalization and deaths are not the point. The point is the elimination of Covid infection. If no infection there will be no transmission thus neither hospitalization nor death.

Current vaccines fail to eliminate infection.

 

[Willmark]

Yet who is making up well over 90% (closer to 99% or more in many areas) of the hospitalizations and deaths right now?

Note: some general musings based off this comment, not implying anything to you.

Since it’s a global pandemic? Likely a lot more people worldwide than just Americans.

Note: because plenty of people around here like to misconstrue: in the above statement I’m merely talking about large numbers of the world population being outside the borders of the US, nothing more.

In other words, the two most likely, hardest hit countries by Covid?
1. India, the numbers there are likely massively underreported.

2. China. Anyone who believes the numbers China is telling them? Don’t know what to tell you there if one believes that government. They lied during SARS, it’s highly probable they are lying now and have been since the beginning.

BTW I’m not leaving out the US, the numbers here? That’s largely a function of which political lens one views it through. I’ll leave it at that.

 

[mmascari]

Yet the vaccinated can stil contract and transmit the virus to both vaccinated and unvaccinated. The vaccine is not effective in eliminating the virus.

Again, this is a poor take. The vaccine is incredibly effective. When the raw numbers of infected trying to pass the virus along are so large, then the very low percentage of breakthrough and then subsequent transmission will also be a larger raw number.

It's still a massive reduction in spread for vaccinated people.

That second bullet while technically true, needs all kinds of extra context.

These two statements:

• The unvaccinated can contract and transmit the virus.
• The vaccinated can contract and transmit the virus.

They are both technically correct. However, they are by no means equivalent and do not mean the same thing. They do not have the same impact on community spread and keeping the virus in circulation.

Not that you were doing this, but other posts that have said because of this there's no reason to get the vaccine are making a bad faith argument. They're treating them as if they're the same, when they are worlds apart.

If we have a room with an infected person singing and generally doing their best to infect everyone else in the room:

1. If we have 100 people who are unvaccinated there, a large number of them are likely to be infected. All of those infected are likely to transmit the virus to someone else.
2. If we have 100 people who are all vaccinated there, a small number are likely to be infected, and a small number of that small number are likely to transmit the virus to someone else for a smaller duration of time.

All those reductions for the vaccinated make a huge difference. Sure, it's not as good as if it was "none of them" instead of "small number". But, it's still a huge difference.

This is the same problem we've always had. People keep perceiving any percentage over 90% as near absolute. Perception has 90%, 95%, 99%, 99.999%, and 99.999999% as all about the same. They're nowhere near each other, and when it's a a percentage of a huge number, like 330,000,000, those small differences matter.

Vaccinate enough people that the transmission is driven so low that the vaccine barely needs to work because there's so little exposure to the virus. That's when vaccines work the best.

The vaccine isn't a forcefield where a single vaccinated individual can wade into a pool of virus with a million plus infection attempts and assume they'll be fine.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Yet the vaccinated can stil contract and transmit the virus to both vaccinated and unvaccinated. The vaccine is not effective in eliminating the virus.

Hospitalization and deaths are not the point. The point is the elimination of Covid infection. If no infection there will be no transmission thus neither hospitalization nor death.

Current vaccines fail to eliminate infection.

A vaccine isn’t something that stays in your body and then kills the virus as it enters. It isn’t like an internal antibacterial spray.