Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[mmascari]

I’ve been out in the world more than ever this week for work and I’m going to be completely honest... I’m more stressed about possibly developing GBS from the vaccine than I was about catching covid while wearing a mask and being distanced before.

Statistics says the reverse is true from a quantified risk perspective.

This is an emotional reaction based on a faulty premise. You feel more in control of the mask and the distance. This control gives you the sensation that you’re having a larger impact on the risk reduction. A rare GBS reaction comes with no control, it feels random. The lack of control causes an emotional reaction that the risk is larger than it is. Combined, the emotional reaction is lowering the real risk of infection and increasing the GBS risk so they’re inverted. It feels super real, and scary, but it’s all a fake distortion of the actual risk. You can read all the stats you want and know which is more risky, but it’s the emotional reaction you need to overcome.

It’s the same reason some people are afraid to fly.

Cars: “38,680 people died in motor vehicle traffic crashes in 2020”
Planes: there were 299 fatalities in 2020, up from 257 in 2019.

Driving is quantifiably more dangerous than flying. Yet, people have a sense of control while driving, especially if the are in the drivers seat. When flying, they have no control at all.

It’s all an emotional reaction to the perceived control and risk impacts.

It takes effort, but all the data says the vaccine is less risky than everything else, by a huge enormous margin. Trust the data.

 

[AEfx]

If they bring back mitigation’s except them to be in place until the middle of 2022.

You mean, like the original projections were - before the White House and CDC did an about face and gambled our health on a poorly thought-out marketing campaign advertising with fancy infographics "RIP THAT MASK OFF....(if you are vaccinated)"

As some of us warned at the time, it was way too soon to get rid of mitigations. Just because people "were just over it!" wasn't a good enough reason. And now we are paying the price - this is starting all over again.

 

[UNCgolf]

Well... tell the FDA to take the warning off of it.

I have extremely low chances of having a serious case of covid and I can help control my chances of catching covid to begin with - I was doing a very good job of that.

Your chance of having a serious case of Covid is still much higher than getting GBS from a vaccine, though.

It's one of those things where if you're concerned about getting that from a vaccine, you really shouldn't ever be getting in a car -- the chances of you being seriously injured or killed in a car accident are astronomical compared to getting GBS from a Covid vaccine.

 

[DisneyFan32]

I'm still waiting until Holiday season aka Thanksgiving and Christmas as the millions of people will be fully vaccinated as possible by December so it will may not going to be massive wave of surges in USA anymore as possible. Federal Mandate will be lift restrictions such as masks and social distancing for trains, buses and planes (September 13th) for the holiday season for USA.

 

[Trauma]

You mean, like the original projections were - before the White House and CDC did an about face and gambled our health on a poorly thought-out marketing campaign advertising with fancy infographics "RIP THAT MASK OFF....(if you are vaccinated)"

As some of us warned at the time, it was way too soon to get rid of mitigations. Just because people "were just over it!" wasn't a good enough reason. And now we are paying the price - this is starting all over again.

So we just randomly mitigate until 2022?

The majority of un vaccinated are not changing their mind.

What’s your end game?

 

[DisneyFan32]

You mean, like the original projections were - before the White House and CDC did an about face and gambled our health on a poorly thought-out marketing campaign advertising with fancy infographics "RIP THAT MASK OFF....(if you are vaccinated)"

As some of us warned at the time, it was way too soon to get rid of mitigations. Just because people "were just over it!" wasn't a good enough reason. And now we are paying the price - this is starting all over again.

And I don't want restrictions even back longer as soon. I don't want it back. I'm fully vaccinated.

 

[LittleBuford]

I’m still within the 42 days that the FDA said.

I'm sorry you're having such a tough time of it. I have OCD and know how it feels to worry about things that may seen incredibly unlikely to others. But please rest assured that you made the only sensible decision by getting the vaccine. The science tells us that the risks of remaining unvaccinated far outweigh those you are worrying about. I hope, in a few weeks' time, you'll feel better.

 

[DisneyFan32]

So we just randomly mitigate until 2022?

The majority of un vaccinated are not changing their mind.

What’s your end game?

Ah leave it alone guys. we don't want mitigate even longer until 2022? WE WANT END THE PANDEMIC BY END OF THE YEAR!

 

[Heppenheimer]

Not sure why one concerns me more than the other. But I felt like I could help control not catching covid (like hiding in my basement according to some posters) - I asked for something that has now been linked to GBS. Mind Game I’m sure but it’s how I feel.

If you were going to get Guillan-Barre syndrome, it would have happened by now. Rest assured.

EDIT: The miniscule chance that you would develop GBS approaches zero the farther you go out. At 42 days, you're effectively out of the window.

You have a far more likely chance of developing GBS everytime you eat improperly prepared food. Most cases, by far, are the result of a gastrointestinal infection. The risk from any vaccine is several orders of magnitude lower. You should be far more worried about eating at a restaurant.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Statistics says the reverse is true from a quantified risk perspective.

This is an emotional reaction based on a faulty premise. You feel more in control of the mask and the distance. This control gives you the sensation that you’re having a larger impact on the risk reduction. A rare GBS reaction comes with no control, it feels random. The lack of control causes an emotional reaction that the risk is larger than it is. Combined, the emotional reaction is lowering the real risk of infection and increasing the GBS risk so they’re inverted. It feels super real, and scary, but it’s all a fake distortion of the actual risk. You can read all the stats you want and know which is more risky, but it’s the emotional reaction you need to overcome.

It’s the same reason some people are afraid to fly.

Cars: “38,680 people died in motor vehicle traffic crashes in 2020”
Planes: there were 299 fatalities in 2020, up from 257 in 2019.

Driving is quantifiably more dangerous than flying. Yet, people have a sense of control while driving, especially if the are in the drivers seat. When flying, they have no control at all.

It’s all an emotional reaction to the perceived control and risk impacts.

It takes effort, but all the data says the vaccine is less risky than everything else, by a huge enormous margin. Trust the data.

I agree with everything you said. But try to convince my mind of that!

 

[mmascari]

Well... tell the FDA to take the warning off of it.

FDA warnings and the labels are super conservative. Even very small things are called out. You would never take any medication again if you read every label and gave a large value to the low risk rare scenarios. If you researched how new stuff is compared to old stuff and then looked at how the old baselines 30 years ago were created, you would be amazed the baseline drug is used at all.

I have extremely low chances of having a serious case of covid and I can help control my chances of catching covid to begin with - I was doing a very good job of that.

A perception problem. No matter how good you are doing, the risk of GBS is still smaller, way way WAY smaller.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

If you were going to get Guillan-Barre syndrome, it would have happened by now. Rest assured.

I’m still within 42 days.

 

[Polkadotdress]

DuPage county Illinois.

I lived there once upon a time!

 

[Flugell]

Well... tell the FDA to take the warning off of it.

I have extremely low chances of having a serious case of covid and I can help control my chances of catching covid to begin with - I was doing a very good job of that.

Having watched the terrifying adverts for common over the counter medicines on American television, I doubt if they can!!!

 

[Trauma]

I lived there once upon a time!

Well if you looks at our case number there is no reason for us to have to mitigate like other areas of the country.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I’m still within 42 days.

I caught a bad case of diarrhea this week (hint, don't let dogs who eat their own poop give you kisses...). I currently have a far greater risk of catching GBS than you.

 

[DisneyCane]

It’s hard to read these as “about the same”.

State	Date	New Cases	7-Day Moving Avg	7-Day Case Rate per 100K
California	Jul 23 2021	7,984	3,950	69.98
California	Jul 22 2021	5,577	3,417	60.54
California	Jul 21 2021	493	3,200	56.71
California	Jul 20 2021	1,390	3,707	65.67
California	Jul 19 2021	2,764	3,836	67.96
California	Jul 18 2021	4,659	3,795	67.25
California	Jul 17 2021	4,783	3,577	63.38
California	Jul 16 2021	4,255	3,360	59.54
California	Jul 15 2021	4,062	3,238	57.38
California	Jul 14 2021	4,036	3,138	55.6
California	Jul 13 2021	2,293	2,936	52.02
California	Jul 12 2021	2,482	2,820	49.97
California	Jul 11 2021	3,132	2,703	47.89
California	Jul 10 2021	3,265	2,544	45.07
California	Jul 9 2021	3,401	2,387	42.3
California	Jul 8 2021	3,359	2,193	38.85
California	Jul 7 2021	2,621	1,990	35.27
California	Jul 6 2021	1,485	1,897	33.61
California	Jul 5 2021	1,660	1,856	32.89
California	Jul 4 2021	2,017	1,779	31.52
California	Jul 3 2021	2,169	1,689	29.92
California	Jul 2 2021	2,040	1,586	28.11
California	Jul 1 2021	1,943	1,478	26.2
California	Jun 30 2021	1,968	1,395	24.72
California	Jun 29 2021	1,198	1,320	23.4
California	Jun 28 2021	1,119	1,266	22.43
California	Jun 27 2021	1,387	1,220	21.63
California	Jun 26 2021	1,451	1,166	20.66
California	Jun 25 2021	1,286	1,114	19.75
California	Jun 24 2021	1,357	1,091	19.34
California	Jun 23 2021	1,447	1,052	18.64
California	Jun 22 2021	816	1,018	18.04
California	Jun 21 2021	801	1,005	17.82
California	Jun 20 2021	1,007	992	17.58
California	Jun 19 2021	1,090	975	17.29
California	Jun 18 2021	1,122	951	16.86
California	Jun 17 2021	1,084	933	16.53
California	Jun 16 2021	1,209	938	16.62
California	Jun 15 2021	728	923	16.35
California	Jun 14 2021	705	914	16.2
California	Jun 13 2021	892	912	16.16
California	Jun 12 2021	922	919	16.29
California	Jun 11 2021	992	941	16.69
California	Jun 10 2021	1,118	955	16.93
California	Jun 9 2021	1,105	981	17.39
California	Jun 8 2021	668	916	16.24
California	Jun 7 2021	689	913	16.17
California	Jun 6 2021	941	908	16.09
California	Jun 5 2021	1,080	905	16.04
California	Jun 4 2021	1,090	891	15.8
California	Jun 3 2021	1,298	883	15.66
California	Jun 2 2021	649	860	15.25
California	Jun 1 2021	644	953	16.89

State	Date	New Cases	7-Day Moving Avg	7-Day Case Rate per 100K
Florida	Jul 23 2021	14,258	10,454	340.73
Florida	Jul 22 2021	13,256	9,630	313.87
Florida	Jul 21 2021	12,647	8,911	290.45
Florida	Jul 20 2021	8,988	8,106	264.21
Florida	Jul 19 2021	8,012	7,740	252.28
Florida	Jul 18 2021	8,010	7,323	238.69
Florida	Jul 17 2021	8,010	6,907	225.12
Florida	Jul 16 2021	8,490	6,490	211.54
Florida	Jul 15 2021	8,225	6,104	198.97
Florida	Jul 14 2021	7,011	5,621	183.21
Florida	Jul 13 2021	6,425	5,178	168.77
Florida	Jul 12 2021	5,095	4,589	149.58
Florida	Jul 11 2021	5,094	4,190	136.57
Florida	Jul 10 2021	5,094	3,791	123.57
Florida	Jul 9 2021	5,790	3,392	110.57
Florida	Jul 8 2021	4,840	2,966	96.69
Florida	Jul 7 2021	3,911	2,687	87.6
Florida	Jul 6 2021	2,303	2,476	80.71
Florida	Jul 5 2021	2,301	2,478	80.79
Florida	Jul 4 2021	2,301	2,337	76.18
Florida	Jul 3 2021	2,301	2,195	71.56
Florida	Jul 2 2021	2,810	2,053	66.93
Florida	Jul 1 2021	2,887	1,839	59.94
Florida	Jun 30 2021	2,432	1,694	55.22
Florida	Jun 29 2021	2,319	1,623	52.9
Florida	Jun 28 2021	1,312	1,561	50.88
Florida	Jun 27 2021	1,308	1,613	52.58
Florida	Jun 26 2021	1,308	1,602	52.21
Florida	Jun 25 2021	1,308	1,590	51.83
Florida	Jun 24 2021	1,872	1,578	51.44
Florida	Jun 23 2021	1,935	1,543	50.3
Florida	Jun 22 2021	1,884	1,499	48.86
Florida	Jun 21 2021	1,679	1,475	48.09
Florida	Jun 20 2021	1,228	1,377	44.89
Florida	Jun 19 2021	1,225	1,361	44.37
Florida	Jun 18 2021	1,225	1,346	43.87
Florida	Jun 17 2021	1,627	1,442	47
Florida	Jun 16 2021	1,626	1,529	49.84
Florida	Jun 15 2021	1,719	1,543	50.31
Florida	Jun 14 2021	991	1,525	49.71
Florida	Jun 13 2021	1,117	1,552	50.61
Florida	Jun 12 2021	1,117	1,760	57.39
Florida	Jun 11 2021	1,898	1,968	64.16
Florida	Jun 10 2021	2,237	2,064	67.3
Florida	Jun 9 2021	1,726	2,007	65.41
Florida	Jun 8 2021	1,590	1,929	62.89
Florida	Jun 7 2021	1,184	1,911	62.31
Florida	Jun 6 2021	2,573	1,951	63.6
Florida	Jun 5 2021	2,572	1,792	58.41
Florida	Jun 4 2021	2,572	1,633	53.24
Florida	Jun 3 2021	1,832	1,593	51.94
Florida	Jun 2 2021	1,185	1,657	54.02
Florida	Jun 1 2021	1,465	1,820	59.34

I didn't say they were "about the same." I was pointing out the increases since 6/1 in multiples of cases. FL started at a higher level on 6/1 so 5x FL is still more cases per 100k than 6x CA. I was speculating that it is within the realm of possibility that this wave reaches the same level in cases per 100k as a peak but FL reaches the peak faster.

The CA numbers illustrate the ridiculousness of the narrative that "if we had just done the right thing last summer everywhere, COVID would have been gone." CA "followed the science" and has had pretty high vaccine acceptance yet cases are still increasing at a pretty high rate.

 

[SourcererMark79]

I lived there once upon a time!

I grew up in Naperville when the population was around 40k. Crazy how things have changed since the 80s.

 

[DisneyCane]

The CDC doesn’t have a comprehensive database tracking all breakthrough infections and doesn’t publish those stats publicly. However, we have seen lots of anecdotal evidence from all over the country that the overwhelming majority of cases are in the unvaccinated demographic. Recently someone posted a tweet from the mayor of Orange County and he was reporting that 100% of their infections over the previous 3 days were in unvaccinated people. Just one example, but I have a hard time believing the vaccines from January are only 40% effective now but somehow none of the infections over that recent period in Orange County came in fully vaccinated people.

Maybe this proves out to be true and I’m wrong an/or the various local and state reports claiming almost all infections are still in the unvaccinated group are inaccurate. I find it interesting that some people are so quick to believe one outlier study and so quick to dismiss other evidence to the contrary. All I’m saying is do further studies and find out what the truth is before we start rolling out boosters and claiming the vaccines don’t last 6 months.

If the localities that are releasing the unvaccinated vs. vaccinated numbers are falsifying to promote vaccination then they are doing a terrible disservice because their numbers give people like me the ammunition to say that if you are fully vaccinated, you are fine. If that data is inaccurate, it may be the worst falsehood anybody has told during the entire pandemic.

IF it somehow turns out that protection from the vaccines doesn't even last six months, the best strategy is to let it rip through the unvaccinated population ASAP worldwide. Otherwise, there is no possibility of ever reaching herd immunity. Every booster required is going to end up with fewer people getting the shot. If they said that you need a booster in less than a year, I'd be shocked if more than 80% who are fully vaccinated get the booster. The alternative of mitigation forever isn't going to fly anywhere that isn't an authoritarian dictatorship that executes people for breaking protocol.

 

[correcaminos]

Well... tell the FDA to take the warning off of it.

I have extremely low chances of having a serious case of covid and I can help control my chances of catching covid to begin with - I was doing a very good job of that.

You have far less chance of developing GBS than catching covid. That's how rare this is. There are other shots I've taken that have a higher chance of GBS and even then it's uber rare. The FDA lists pretty much all worse case scenarios. They even say it's super rare but have to say it just in case.

42 days is their outlier number. If you are more than 2 or so weeks out, try to stop stressing.