UK cases are down 4 straight days. They may have peaked July 17 (May have, too early to know for sure) and are now down almost 30% from that peak day. Since the US is 2 weeks behind the UK (something you have repeated continuously for a month now) we should then peak by the end of July and at a level far, far below the 500,000 daily cases “predicted”.
I'm waiting many unvaccinated people to getting vaccinating as the cases will be much lower by September/October. By the way, is Federal Mandate will be lift indoor masks for trains and buses (not planes) by September 13th (as NJ/NY as PA can lift indoor masks for trains and buses by September 13th). Will COVID-19 pandemic in USA will have another massive wave of surges by Fall or not?
I really am not getting into that lol. Just clarifying what they probably meant by the definition of "red".
Do you have any sense of what death rates may look like considering a substantial portion of the most vulnerable population is vaccinated?
Could be a fan of the Nebraska Cornhuskers
I very much doubt it. Restrictions were lifted two days after the 17th. Clubs have reopened and are teeming with unmasked, unvaccinated people.
Definitely NOT that! He was very happy on 1/3/2002 as was I!Could be a fan of the Nebraska Cornhuskers
Quite the opposite. I was illustrating that not close to all are anti-vax as the narrative seems to be.
One positive is the first doses were up a lot from the prior week. I'm still concerned that there are way too many in the one dose but not both bucket. It indicates a major issue with people not going back for shot #2.
I am more than happy to be at that point, when all have the opportunity to get vaccinated.
Fair point. I did say May so it could be that cases move up again in a few days or weeks due to re-opening. The larger point is that the spike in cases related specifically to delta in the UK seems to be leveling off. In the US nothing has really changed as far as restrictions so what goes up eventually goes down. I don’t really actually think what happens in the US is directly related to the UK anyway. The other guy keeps saying we are 2 weeks behind the UK so that would apply to cases dropping again too
Deaths are hard to predict because they are lagging stats. Despite the increase in cases here we haven’t seen deaths increase. Here’s the US graph:
I've heard it said ~10% or so of hospital admissions don't make it outDeaths are hard to predict because they are lagging stats. Despite the increase in cases here we haven’t seen deaths increase. Here’s the US graph:
View attachment 574339
As you said, lots of the high risk people are vaccinated. We are nearing 90% of 65+ vaccinated and age was a large factor in severe Covid cases. Most Covid deaths occurred in people who were hospitalized so an uptick in hospitalizations would make you think there may be a future uptick in deaths. Here is the hospitalization graph:
View attachment 574340
As you can see there is a small uptick but still well below the level we were at at any time prior to the vaccination rollout. Time will tell, but it seems like even with the current uptick in cases there is not a proportional increase in hospitalization and death. That is what would be expected too.
For months many of us were saying we thought that cases would drop as more people got vaccinated but there was a good chance we would see future waves of covid infections, especially among the unvaccinated, but that hospitals shouldn’t be overrun and deaths shouldn’t soar due to most of the high risk people being vaccinated. So far that seems to be playing out. Fingers crossed that continues
The 1st and 2nd waves of Covid In the US had 3 month arcs but the 3rd mini-wave in March when the UK variant became dominant was shorter and less steep. The question now is will we see a peak in the next few weeks and a quicker drop down or will we see the full 3 month arc that won’t end until September. Time will tell but either way let’s hope hospitalizations an deaths stay in check.
www.theguardian.com
Which vaccine? AZ had a much lower efficacy than Pfizer.UK numbers of fully vaccinated as percent of admitted covid cases is 23%.
PHE upgrade Delta variant’s risk level due to reinfection risk
Risk of reinfection with Delta may be 46% greater than with the Alpha variant, national testing data finds
Here‘s one for hospitalizations that is easier to see dates, but it only goes back a year.
www.worldometers.info