Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyCane]

If the government wanted to, they can indeed force vaccines. The SCOTUS ruled in 1905 (and upheld several times) that a person refusing a smallpox vaccine could be fined and imprisoned, under the "general welfare" of the constitution. Notice I said if they wanted, not that they would. (Although getting rid of smallpox entirely did require some strong arming)

It depends on what you mean by "the government." I don't think there is any means by which the federal government can force vaccines. The 1905 case was about a state government being able to do it.

Complete forced vaccines I think we get rejected by SCOTUS despite the 1905 case -- that would get them to overturn it.

But certainly, you can use the law to strongly encourage it: Require proof of vaccination to board a plane, require it to get a passport possibly. Possibly even require it in order to hold employment (though that could impact Federalism).
States could absolutely require it as a condition of employment, a condition of school enrollment. States can go further and require vaccination status be checked by restaurants and theaters. The Federal government would be more limited.

Basically, what would certainly get upheld: You don't HAVE to get vaccinated ..... But you do have to if you want to actively participate in public society.

I think it would be upheld if any state wanted to do it. The Florida Statutes have provisions which allow for forced vaccinations under a public health emergency and they didn't change that law in this past legislative session. The Surgeon General would have to declare another public health emergency and then would have the authority to force vaccinations.

 

[havoc315]

Yes, I was surprised that over 700 fully vaccinated people have died in the USA. That number did seem high to me.

It's really not high at all. That 700 would be 15,000 to 50,000 if they hadn't been vaccinated. So that's a LOT of lives saved by vaccine.

Too many people have given the impression of 100% death prevention by vaccines. It's not 100%. Almost 100% is not 100%. So 97-98% is GREAT, it's FANTASTIC.. but it's still hundreds of deaths. You eliminate most of those deaths by herd immunity --Get us to the point where the virus is no longer actively circulating in the community.
But we likely won't get there. With the Alpha variant, maybe we could have gotten there with 65-70% of the total population fully vaccinated. With Delta, it will probably require 75%+ of the entire population fully vaccinated (both shots). Right now, we are at 47.7%. Even when we get approval for younger kids, unlikely we ever get to 75% of the entire population .

 

[havoc315]

It depends on what you mean by "the government." I don't think there is any means by which the federal government can force vaccines. The 1905 case was about a state government being able to do it.

I think it would be upheld if any state wanted to do it. The Florida Statutes have provisions which allow for forced vaccinations under a public health emergency and they didn't change that law in this past legislative session. The Surgeon General would have to declare another public health emergency and then would have the authority to force vaccinations.

The Supreme Court precedent is pre Roe v. Wade, which established a certain level of privacy about medical decision making.

Certainly, many states already require vaccination AS A PRECONDITION to school enrollment. But Pennsylvania can't force their Amish children to get vaccinated. You start literally holding people down and forcing shots into their arms, that would be a step too far. Though I support almost anything short of that.

 

[GoofGoof]

How many fully vaccinated people in the USA have died from "not COVID" in the same period of time? I don't know if that data exists but it is going to be orders of magnitude higher.

They don't seem to have the data available by age but I would suspect that 80%+ of these breakthrough infections are in the 65+ age group who are the most vulnerable and have been exposed in a fully vaccinated state for the longest period of time.

I don’t know that answer, but in 2021 while the vaccines were available and those 733 vaccinated people died over 250,000 additional unvaccinated people died from Covid as well. If you want to compare to more recent times since June 1 over 10,000 additional unvaccinated people died.

 

[DisneyFan32]

It's really not high at all. That 700 would be 15,000 to 50,000 if they hadn't been vaccinated. So that's a LOT of lives saved by vaccine.

Too many people have given the impression of 100% death prevention by vaccines. It's not 100%. Almost 100% is not 100%. So 97-98% is GREAT, it's FANTASTIC.. but it's still hundreds of deaths. You eliminate most of those deaths by herd immunity --Get us to the point where the virus is no longer actively circulating in the community.
But we likely won't get there. With the Alpha variant, maybe we could have gotten there with 65-70% of the total population fully vaccinated. With Delta, it will probably require 75%+ of the entire population fully vaccinated (both shots). Right now, we are at 47.7%. Even when we get approval for younger kids, unlikely we ever get to 75% of the entire population .

Then this fall, the spike or surge will cause BIG troubles now so we will GO BACK TO MASK MANDATE IF WE WILL EVER GET INTO 75% OF ENTIRE POPULATION!

 

[GoofGoof]

It's really not high at all. That 700 would be 15,000 to 50,000 if they hadn't been vaccinated. So that's a LOT of lives saved by vaccine.

Too many people have given the impression of 100% death prevention by vaccines. It's not 100%. Almost 100% is not 100%. So 97-98% is GREAT, it's FANTASTIC.. but it's still hundreds of deaths. You eliminate most of those deaths by herd immunity --Get us to the point where the virus is no longer actively circulating in the community.
But we likely won't get there. With the Alpha variant, maybe we could have gotten there with 65-70% of the total population fully vaccinated. With Delta, it will probably require 75%+ of the entire population fully vaccinated (both shots). Right now, we are at 47.7%. Even when we get approval for younger kids, unlikely we ever get to 75% of the entire population .

We will get there eventually. Vaccination isn’t the only way to become immune. If 70% of the total population is vaccinated by the end of 2021 once kids are all approved and if the delta and future variants are as contagious as advertised and they rip through the unvaccinated population that adds to immunity too. It’s not the easy way for sure, but some people need to learn the hard way. The downside to current and future variants being more contagious is it requires a higher level of immunity to reach herd immunity, but the “upside“ (if you want to call it that) is that the more contagious they are the more unvaccinated people become immune faster. 90% immune can come from 80% vaccinated and half the unvaccinated becoming naturally immune or it can come from 70% vaccinated and 2/3 of the unvaccinated becoming naturally immune. Lots of extra suffering and death the second way, but it’s a path.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Basically, what would certainly get upheld: You don't HAVE to get vaccinated ..... But you do have to if you want to actively participate in public society.

Agreed. But we have States like Florida that are doing the exact opposite.

It's really not high at all. That 700 would be 15,000 to 50,000 if they hadn't been vaccinated. So that's a LOT of lives saved by vaccine.

I guess I’m just used to reading “no deaths” from the vaccine trials so seeing the number 700 just in the USA seemed high. Compared to single digits, 700 seems high.

 

[DisneyCane]

I guess I’m just used to reading “no deaths” from the vaccine trials so seeing the number 700 just in the USA seemed high. Compared to single digits, 700 seems high.

The trials were what, 36,000 people of which half were placebo? We're talking 157 MILLION fully vaccinated. If my numbers are correct for the trial size, you'd expect less than one death from a vaccinated person in the trial based on the breakthrough data to date.

 

[GoofGoof]

The trials were what, 36,000 people of which half were placebo? We're talking 157 MILLION fully vaccinated. If my numbers are correct for the trial size, you'd expect less than one death from a vaccinated person in the trial based on the breakthrough data to date.

Don’t forget the trials were spread among all demographic groups too. I can see if I can find the study, but the CDC put something out a month or so ago on breakthrough infections and the median age for vaccinated people who died from a breakthrough infection was 82. So the 65+ crowd was represented in the trials but almost 90% of them are vaccinated now and most have been for months. The trials didn’t skew that old.

 

[Disney Experience]

Don’t forget the trials were spread among all demographic groups too. I can see if I can find the study, but the CDC put something out a month or so ago on breakthrough infections and the median age for vaccinated people who died from a breakthrough infection was 82. So the 65+ crowd was represented in the trials but almost 90% of them are vaccinated now and most have been for months. The trials didn’t skew that old.

Pfizer alone had 42000 ( or about) participants once they expanded it. Half placebo. ( all later vaccinated around March)

But Moderna and later J&J had studies too. Moderba around 30000, J&J around 60,000 ( that was thisr goal)

The initial Pfizer study was about 15,000 vaccinated and 15,000 placebo worldwide.

In florida 10-20% of candidate trial participants already had covid ( it was not a disqualifier).

I would assume death rate skews to the old, and those with comorbidities whether vaccinated or unvaccinated. But vaccinated with the same factors above as unvaccinated should have a lower death rate and chance for moderate or serious covid. Variants can change this ( Such as Pfizer being 64% effective in preventing symptomatic covid when the delta variant dominates)

 

[DonniePeverley]

South Korea = 29% of the population with 1 dose
Thailand = 12%
I’d say they have a lot more to worry about

July 8 US 7 day daily average = 15,993 or 4.83 cases per 100,000
July 1 US 7 day daily average = 13,874 or 4.19 cases per 100,000
That is a 15% increase in cases over the last week which is primarily driven by states with lower vaccination rates. It’s not shocking to see, but we have to keep the numbers in context too. We are not seeing increases in cases everywhere across the board. According to The NY Times tracker about half the states are up less than 10% over the last 14 days including 16 states that are still down. The National increase in cases is driven by 11 states which are showing a >50% increase in cases over the last 14 weeks. Even that is somewhat misleading since states like CA and IL are in that group but still at 4 and 3 cases per 100,000 which is a pretty low level.

80% INCREASE FROM LAST WEEK IN CASES.

This is exactly the trend the UK started with once the Indian delta variant took hold. I was suggesting this as much a few weeks ago, took some abuse from those refuse to look at data and history, but i hate it i am correct.

For those who don't know the UK despite a huge vaccination roll out in seeing a massive surge in cases, and we are on course some suggest to hit 100,000 cases a day in the coming weeks. Translated to the USA that would mean 500,000 cases a day.

The US has quite the low vaccination rate too.

 

[correcaminos]

80% INCREASE FROM LAST WEEK IN CASES.

This is exactly the trend the UK started with once the Indian delta variant took hold. I was suggesting this as much a few weeks ago, took some abuse from those refuse to look at data and history, but i hate it i am correct.

For those who don't know the UK despite a huge vaccination roll out in seeing a massive surge in cases, and we are on course some suggest to hit 100,000 cases a day in the coming weeks. Translated to the USA that would mean 500,000 cases a day.

The US has quite the low vaccination rate too.

I'm confused. Where is there 80% when the math was showing 15? Also why do you compare the US so much to the UK? How the countries vaccinated wildly differ.

 

[Heelz2315]

500k a day? It wasn’t that bad during the winter peak and that was before the US had 160m people vaxxed

I listened to a podcast the other day with Dr Scott Gottlieb (former FDA Chief). According to the models he’s seeing the US will hit approx 20% of what we hit last year. If that holds true we’ll see about 60k cases/day at the worst of the winter. To put that into perspective the CDC dropped their mask mandate when we were around 40k cases a day.

 

[Zummi Gummi]

500k a day? It wasn’t that bad during the winter peak and that was before the US had 160m people vaxxed

I listened to a podcast the other day with Dr Scott Gottlieb (former FDA Chief). According to the models he’s seeing the US will hit approx 20% of what we hit last year. If that holds true we’ll see about 60k cases/day at the worst of the winter. To put that into perspective the CDC dropped their mask mandate when we were around 40k cases a day.

That poster peddles a lot of doom and gloom.

 

[DonniePeverley]

I'm confused. Where is there 80% when the math was showing 15? Also why do you compare the US so much to the UK? How the countries vaccinated wildly differ.

USA REPORTING 24,570 cases today.

The UK actually has more of it's population as a percentage vaccinated than the USA. And far more who've had one dose and waiting on their second dose.

 

[GoofGoof]

80% INCREASE FROM LAST WEEK IN CASES.

This is exactly the trend the UK started with once the Indian delta variant took hold. I was suggesting this as much a few weeks ago, took some abuse from those refuse to look at data and history, but i hate it i am correct.

For those who don't know the UK despite a huge vaccination roll out in seeing a massive surge in cases, and we are on course some suggest to hit 100,000 cases a day in the coming weeks. Translated to the USA that would mean 500,000 cases a day.

The US has quite the low vaccination rate too.

I just quoted the numbers…it’s 15% up week over week.

 

[DonniePeverley]

That poster peddles a lot of doom and gloom.

Doom and gloom or reality? I completely understand not wanting to see the facts, as it's completely depressing. Even Dr Fauci is saying as much as we are going to go into hard times with the Delta variant now very active in the states.

 

[Zummi Gummi]

Doom and gloom or reality? I completely understand not wanting to see the facts, as it's completely depressing. Even Dr Fauci is saying as much as we are going to go into hard times with the Delta variant now very active in the states.

You do understand that at the height of the surge, when no one in the country was vaccinated, we did not approach 500K cases a day, right?

Stop fear mongering.

And Dr. Fauci said no such thing, if you’re vaccinated. https://www.npr.org/sections/corona...t-vaccines-will-stand-up-to-the-delta-variant

 

[Disstevefan1]

500k a day? It wasn’t that bad during the winter peak and that was before the US had 160m people vaxxed

I listened to a podcast the other day with Dr Scott Gottlieb (former FDA Chief). According to the models he’s seeing the US will hit approx 20% of what we hit last year. If that holds true we’ll see about 60k cases/day at the worst of the winter. To put that into perspective the CDC dropped their mask mandate when we were around 40k cases a day.

The focus should never be on cases. The focus should be on hospitalizations. That is the only important metric.

 

[Turtlekrawl]

Then this fall, the spike or surge will cause BIG troubles now so we will GO BACK TO MASK MANDATE IF WE WILL EVER GET INTO 75% OF ENTIRE POPULATION!

The surge is here now. I expect to be trending down again by fall.