Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Parker in NYC]

Definitely get vaccinated BUT ...

I still believe experts don't fully understand how COVID spreads.

Let's compare states with the lowest vaccination rate:

• Mississippi - 63,417 doses per 100,000
• Alabama - 67,918
• Louisiana - 71,420
• Wyoming - 72,453
• Arkansas - 73,526

With states with the highest COVID rates as of today:

• Missouri - 90.3 cases per 100,000
• Nevada - 88.9
• Wyoming - 79.7
• Arkansas - 69.3
• Utah - 68.2

That's only 2 out of 5 that match. That's a great baseball batting average but a terrible QB pass completion percentage.

Mississippi has the lowest vaccination rate in the country. Yet, at the moment, states like Washington, Oregon, Arizona, New Mexico, and Florida have higher COVID rates than Mississippi.

As we've seen earlier in the pandemic, states with strict lockdowns have had outbreaks that were just as bad as states that returned to normal too early.

There's something about the spread of COVID that is not yet fully understood. Or at least something that I have not seen explained.

I'm not an anti-vaxer. My entire family has been fully vaccinated since April. I really believe (almost) everyone should get vaccinated. I'm just saying I would like to see a scientific (not politically biased) explanation that aligns with most facts.

Are we not accounting for those who have already been infected?

Is environment (e.g. density population, weather, etc.) an important factor?

Are certain populations simply not getting tested?

Whatever is happening is more complex than what has been reported.

Any suggestion for a comprehensive explain of COVID's behavior throughout the pandemic?

Thanks!

I'd love to see what the numbers in NYC would be without vaccinations, and with the same restrictions lifted as of today. If that's politically biased, so be it.

 

[GoofGoof]

Here is a graph from today's NYT, it shows a pretty good corelation:

View attachment 567152

And their quote: "

A month ago, a chart like this would have looked almost random, with little relationship between caseloads and vaccination rates. Now, there is a clear relationship. (A recent Washington Post analysis came to the same conclusion.)"​

This

 

[mmascari]

Definitely get vaccinated BUT ...

I still believe experts don't fully understand how COVID spreads.

Let's compare states with the lowest vaccination rate:

• Mississippi - 63,417 doses per 100,000
• Alabama - 67,918
• Louisiana - 71,420
• Wyoming - 72,453
• Arkansas - 73,526

With states with the highest COVID rates as of today:

• Missouri - 90.3 cases per 100,000
• Nevada - 88.9
• Wyoming - 79.7
• Arkansas - 69.3
• Utah - 68.2

That's only 2 out of 5 that match. That's a great baseball batting average but a terrible QB pass completion percentage.

Mississippi has the lowest vaccination rate in the country. Yet, at the moment, states like Washington, Oregon, Arizona, New Mexico, and Florida have higher COVID rates than Mississippi.

I don't think it's a spread question anymore. I think we're very confident that it travels through the air primarily with some very limited surface transmission. There are perhaps still fights about the terminology of airborne vs droplet and the particle size needed to carry it along with the distance those particles are likely to travel. But those are all very nuanced details within a well defined space. If you're breathing the same air as someone else, you're likely to transmit it between each other. The slight differences don't really matter much.

I think we have a statistics problem.

Whatever is happening is more complex than what has been reported.

A complex statistics problem that the reporting isn't covering well.

I am hoping someone does some good studies on this some day and tries to figure it out. I was looking at state wide population density at one point and that doesn't even line up. North and South Dakota have two of the highest infections counts per capita, but are two of the least densely populated states.

We think of things like the "rate per 100,000" as a way to normalize and compare different areas. But, it breaks down at small sizes and fails. If things are just so different in size, the normalization stops working as a valid comparison.

South Dakota has 8.9 buckets of 100K people. North Dakota 8, Mississippi 29, and Florida 217. Meaning, you need 217 cases in FL to be the same as 9 in a SD for 1 per 100K people. A single extended family holding a party could tip the SD rate up 1/100K. A wedding super spreader event could drive the rate several points. Driving the rate several points in FL would take considerably more effort. That feels like the metric breaks down.

We also tend to think of "states" as roughly all the same, using this normalized rate to compare them. But, FL has 25 times more people than SD in 85% of the area. Anything done "statewide" is vastly different between the two.

I'm not sure what the better statistics are. The entire point of the normalized number is to deal with the differences. But clearly, as either the rate gets smaller or the area sizes are further apart, it's not working well. Looking at the county maps helps some. Especially in those states that are mostly empty.

Using that population density, maybe finding areas within SD that are comparable to areas within FL to compare just those areas and not the entire state. Probably a city in SD with a suburb in FL. Two areas where that wedding could have the same impact to the rate.

Ten years from now, someone will probably do this at a census block level and figure out something between similar block areas.

The same is true for the vaccination rate. In those less populated states, looking at the county maps you can see where a city can through the entire state percentage way off.

As several pointed out, this is the same problem with a reported "50% increase". When there were 2 and now there's 3, that's a 50% increase. But not nearly as concerning as when there was 200 and now there's 300.

We need better reporting beyond the simple number.

 

[DonniePeverley]

What is very bizarre and welcome is the falling covid cases in India.

By next week the UK will have more cases than India, despite a fraction of the population, and most adults vaccinated. How is that even humanly possible?

 

[ABQ]

What is very bizarre and welcome is the falling covid cases in India.

By next week the UK will have more cases than India, despite a fraction of the population, and most adults vaccinated. How is that even humanly possible?

View attachment 567163

Say what you will, but personally, I've never trusted the data out of India. Just too densely populated to be trusted.

 

[correcaminos]

People aren't going to the lengths to have something shoved up their nose and throat for a cold. They are very ill.

Not true totally. I know a lot of people who are tested just to be safe and it is just a cold. I also know someone who was personally testing positive for covid and had no symptoms. Routine testing will bring that out. Again I'm not caring as much about total numbers, but severity including hospitalizations as well as deaths. At least at this point.

If one waits until they feel really bad to be tested they really aren't doing it right.

What is very bizarre and welcome is the falling covid cases in India.

By next week the UK will have more cases than India, despite a fraction of the population, and most adults vaccinated. How is that even humanly possible?

View attachment 567163

Not at all bizarre, covid ripped through and killed a lot and infected a ton. Natural immunity can happen and sadly that way too. This is not something I am happy about really, but grateful the numbers have dropped.

 

[yonafunu]

What is very bizarre and welcome is the falling covid cases in India.

By next week the UK will have more cases than India, despite a fraction of the population, and most adults vaccinated. How is that even humanly possible?

View attachment 567163

Some new datas show that more than 50% of Mumbai youngs have natural covid antibodies. Maybe the very high number of contamination has lead to a close herd immunity in India ?

 

[correcaminos]

Say what you will, but personally, I've never trusted the data out of India. Just too densely populated to be trusted.

Huh? So do we not trust any big cities? I get not trusting numbers, but kind of missing your point. Personally, I think numbers were underreported but that has to do with my knowledge of India and the health care there. Not saying they are being intentionally misleading, just what can be done there is not what is done in other parts of the world. I've said before, we had family move to the US for a while to get certain levels of health care here for heart issues that were not possible there. It's just how it is there.

 

[James J]

UK now increasing to almost 23,000 cases in one day - the massive upward curve at nearly 50% week on week continues. Equivilent in USA would be around 100,000 cases a day, and if the rate continued you would see 200,000 cases the week after.

The UK had around 2000 cases last month, with a mass vaccination programme and then opened up most of it's economy.

The USA is around 2-4 weeks behind the UK with the Delta Indian Varient.

Horrific numbers.

To be fair, the numbers today are slightly skewed because of a technical issue yesterday causing a delay to the data in England being processed. That means those cases have been lumped in to today's figures.

Just to add to some of the information around the rise in cases not causing the same rise in hospitalisation - a further 116,287 cases have been recorded in the past seven days which a 70% increase on the previous week, but latest estimates show fewer than one in 1,000 infections is leading to a death. At the peak of the winter wave it was one in 60.

So things are looking better, we just need to keep getting the vaccines into arms of the younger people. Today we've already reached the point of over 50% of 18-30 year olds receiving their first doses despite only being eligible for a couple of weeks, so long may it continue.

 

[jlhwdw]

UK now increasing to almost 23,000 cases in one day - the massive upward curve at nearly 50% week on week continues. Equivilent in USA would be around 100,000 cases a day, and if the rate continued you would see 200,000 cases the week after.

The UK had around 2000 cases last month, with a mass vaccination programme and then opened up most of it's economy.

The USA is around 2-4 weeks behind the UK with the Delta Indian Varient.

Horrific numbers.

But if nearly all cases are mild and those that are vaccinated are simply catching colds - the vaccines are working and it is not horrific.

Without including the success of the vaccines in relation to deaths and severe symptoms/hospitalizations, you are just posting these figures with "Horrific Numbers" bolded to fear monger.

 

[DCBaker]

"Disney Cruise Line had to delay plans to perform a test sailing of Disney Dream from Port Canaveral because of COVID-19 test results.

The ship was set to perform a two-night sailing leaving Tuesday as part of the line’s efforts to receive a conditional sailing certificate from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

An official statement from the cruise line said because of inconsistent test results submitted before sailing, it will have to push the attempt to a later date."

“We are delaying our simulation cruise due to a small number of inconsistent COVID-19 test results, which are considered positive by the CDC,” according to the statement. “The rigorous health and safety protocols we have in place helped us identify the situation, though the test results were ultimately negative.”

Disney Cruise Line delays test sail from Port Canaveral

Disney Cruise Line had to delay plans to perform a test sailing of Disney Dream from Port Canaveral because of COVID-19 test results. The ship was set to perform a two-night sailing leaving Tuesday…

www.orlandosentinel.com

 

[AEfx]

But if nearly all cases are mild and those that are vaccinated are simply catching colds

If you think that even a mild case of COVID is "simply catching a cold" then you are not paying any attention to the developing science about the long term-effects of COVID infection.

 

[SamusAranX]

If you think that even a mild case of COVID is "simply catching a cold" then you are not paying any attention to the developing science about the long term-effects of COVID infection.

Yes, there are long termers, but for a good deal of people, a mild case of COVID is just a bad illness with no long term effects. But, some people don't like playing odds, even low odds. Which by some people, I mean me.

 

[ABQ]

Huh? So do we not trust any big cities? I get not trusting numbers, but kind of missing your point. Personally, I think numbers were underreported but that has to do with my knowledge of India and the health care there. Not saying they are being intentionally misleading, just what can be done there is not what is done in other parts of the world. I've said before, we had family move to the US for a while to get certain levels of health care here for heart issues that were not possible there. It's just how it is there.

I never meant to say they were not to be trusted due to any maleficence in reporting, but in a city like Mumbai, with 20 million people, and that's just one population center, it's likely impossible to know the cases. I too believe they were likely underreported and still are, not because they want to be inaccurate, but because they can never record daily data fast enough to catch up to the population.

 

[correcaminos]

I never meant to say they were not to be trusted due to any maleficence in reporting, but in a city like Mumbai, with 20 million people, and that's just one population center, it's likely impossible to know the cases. I too believe they were likely underreported and still are, not because they want to be inaccurate, but because they can never record daily data fast enough to catch up to the population.

Ah I follow now, I thought you were going a different direction. I totally follow now. To me though it's not just population, but all over it's likely going to be underreported, but not due to anything other than not enough tests or ability to test. It's been heartbreaking to watch India from afar.

If you think that even a mild case of COVID is "simply catching a cold" then you are not paying any attention to the developing science about the long term-effects of COVID infection.

If it gets to be that way with little to no long term effects like most coronaviruses out there, that's not bad. Saying we hope this will happen doesn't mean we ignore science. Not all are exhibiting long term symptoms. If we get less severe all around number of cases won't be as of importance.

 

[DonniePeverley]

Say what you will, but personally, I've never trusted the data out of India. Just too densely populated to be trusted.

True but you can also gage the state of the pandemic by hospital admissions - and they by all account are down too.

How can India, with Delta Variant see cases falling, yet the same variant in the UK causing massive increase in infection?

 

[Zummi Gummi]

True but you can also gage the state of the pandemic by hospital admissions - and they by all account are down too.

How can India, with Delta Variant see cases falling, yet the same variant in the UK causing massive increase in infection?

I don't mean this to sound morbid, but it's possible the virus has run out of people to infect in India. If cases really were under reported, it's possible it's mostly run its course there.

 

[correcaminos]

True but you can also gage the state of the pandemic by hospital admissions - and they by all account are down too.

How can India, with Delta Variant see cases falling, yet the same variant in the UK causing massive increase in infection?

It started in India. It ripped through India over the course of many months. They had under 5% with one dose when it all started. Population density caused it to be horrific. That is where it was horrific, they were recording 350k+ cases a day. Think on that. You need to stop trying to compare the two countries in real time. We're at completely different levels with each. Cases dropped in India because so many were infected.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

"Disney Cruise Line had to delay plans to perform a test sailing of Disney Dream from Port Canaveral because of COVID-19 test results.

The ship was set to perform a two-night sailing leaving Tuesday as part of the line’s efforts to receive a conditional sailing certificate from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

An official statement from the cruise line said because of inconsistent test results submitted before sailing, it will have to push the attempt to a later date."

“We are delaying our simulation cruise due to a small number of inconsistent COVID-19 test results, which are considered positive by the CDC,” according to the statement. “The rigorous health and safety protocols we have in place helped us identify the situation, though the test results were ultimately negative.”

Disney Cruise Line delays test sail from Port Canaveral

Disney Cruise Line had to delay plans to perform a test sailing of Disney Dream from Port Canaveral because of COVID-19 test results. The ship was set to perform a two-night sailing leaving Tuesday…

www.orlandosentinel.com

I'm very interested to see how the cruise market does once they are up and running again. I would never go on another cruise, simply because we got to see just how much of a petridish they are....YES, we have always known, BUT now its kinda etched into my brain I can imagine its the same for many others.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

I don't mean this to sound morbid, but it's possible the virus has run out of people to infect in India. If cases really were under reported, it's possible it's mostly run its course there.

very possible, similar to what we saw in LA late winter.