Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Horizons '83]

UK now increasing to almost 23,000 cases in one day - the massive upward curve at nearly 50% week on week continues. Equivilent in USA would be around 100,000 cases a day, and if the rate continued you would see 200,000 cases the week after.

The UK had around 2000 cases last month, with a mass vaccination programme and then opened up most of it's economy.

The USA is around 2-4 weeks behind the UK with the Delta Indian Varient.

Horrific numbers.

This is a bit doom and gloom no?

We are in a great place in this country. Vaccines are incredible (mRNA specifically). Cases are not a great metric at this point. Yes you still have the risk of catching Covid but that is going to be the norm going forward. Your risk for hospitalization or death if vaccinated are incredible low. We very well might see a surge in cases but always watch for hospitalizations, that is metric that is important. Thus far, there is no indication that we are 2 or 4 weeks behind the UK. The Delta variant has been here longer than that.

 

[Parker in NYC]

This is a bit doom and gloom no?

We are in a great place in this country. Vaccines are incredible (mRNA specifically). Cases are not a great metric at this point. Yes you still have the risk of catching Covid but that is going to be the norm going forward. Your risk for hospitalization or death if vaccinated are incredible low. We very well might see a surge in cases but always watch for hospitalizations, that is metric that is important. Thus far, there is no indication that we are 2 or 4 weeks behind the UK. The Delta variant has been here longer than that.

Hospitalizations and death for the workforce who has chosen not to get the vaccine will be lovely for the business owners out there. For those in high turnover positions, no big whoop. For those in roles that require extensive training and experience, good luck.

 

[GoofGoof]

This is a bit doom and gloom no?

We are in a great place in this country. Vaccines are incredible (mRNA specifically). Cases are not a great metric at this point. Yes you still have the risk of catching Covid but that is going to be the norm going forward. Your risk for hospitalization or death if vaccinated are incredible low. We very well might see a surge in cases but always watch for hospitalizations, that is metric that is important. Thus far, there is no indication that we are 2 or 4 weeks behind the UK. The Delta variant has been here longer than that.

The 2 to 4 weeks behind comment makes no sense to me either. The US economy has been wide open for months now. Very few restrictions on activity. We dropped masks and capacity limits in a lot of places as well over a month ago. If anything we have been ahead of most places on lifting restrictions. I could understand the concern if the UK lifted restrictions and it resulted in a huge surge and we were actually 2 to 4 weeks behind them in lifting the same restrictions, but that just isn’t the case.

 

[danlb_2000]

The good news is that so far it hasn’t happened. The virus has been in widespread circulation for 18 months now and while it has mutated some, it has not mutated enough to cause issues with any of the vaccines we currently have approved. That doesn’t mean it can’t happen, but it’s certainly not guaranteed or even likely to happen at this point. The US and some other nations are in great shape as far as vaccinations, but the rest of the world is very far behind which definitely leaves the door open. The key will be making it through the next 12-18 months. By that time we should have a substantial percent of people worldwide vaccinated and countless more naturally immune. Without any vaccines at all the Spanish Flu pandemic ended on its own and this one would have too eventually. We are just speeding that up with vaccinations.

Remember last year when the media latched on to some stories about re-infection, but that doesn't seem to have become an issue. We are now over a year and a half from the first infections and still not hearing about large numbers of people getting re-infected.

 

[GoofGoof]

Hospitalizations and death for the workforce who has chosen not to get the vaccine will be lovely for the business owners out there. For those in high turnover positions, no big whoop. For those in roles that require extensive training and experience, good luck.

There will likely be an economic impact for the states and regions with lower vaccination rates. Besides the obvious increase in healthcare costs it’s very likely there will be a slower recovery in the overall economy as things slow during future widespread outbreaks. I’m sure excuses will be made and/or we will hear the usual “fake news” comments when that analysis is presented, but it’s very likely to happen.

 

[GoofGoof]

Remember last year when the media latched on to some stories about re-infection, but that doesn't seem to have become an issue. We are now over a year and a half from the first infections and still not hearing about large numbers of people getting re-infected.

Yeah, so far reinfection and breakthrough infection for vaccinated people is still pretty rare. Once you “get immune” you are very unlikely to get Covid again. Not impossible, but unlikely. We are going to need both natural immunity and vaccination immunity combined to get us over the hump to reach herd immunity eventually.

 

[Parker in NYC]

There will likely be an economic impact for the states and regions with lower vaccination rates. Besides the obvious increase in healthcare costs it’s very likely there will be a slower recovery in the overall economy as things slow during future widespread outbreaks. I’m sure excuses will be made and/or we will hear the usual “fake news” comments when that analysis is presented, but it’s very likely to happen.

Get a vaccine, save the economy. Unless they don't want to save the economy - in which case, it's a fruitless proposition.

 

[ParentsOf4]

What he’s saying about this makes sense to the point of it almost being common knowledge. Any future outbreaks or “surges” will be hyper-regionalized in areas of low vaccination, like Alabama, Arkansas, and Mississippi. Those that got vaccinated in those regions will remain just fine.

The bottom line remains: get the vaccine.

Definitely get vaccinated BUT ...

I still believe experts don't fully understand how COVID spreads.

Let's compare states with the lowest vaccination rate:

• Mississippi - 63,417 doses per 100,000
• Alabama - 67,918
• Louisiana - 71,420
• Wyoming - 72,453
• Arkansas - 73,526

With states with the highest COVID rates as of today:

• Missouri - 90.3 cases per 100,000
• Nevada - 88.9
• Wyoming - 79.7
• Arkansas - 69.3
• Utah - 68.2

That's only 2 out of 5 that match. That's a great baseball batting average but a terrible QB pass completion percentage.

Mississippi has the lowest vaccination rate in the country. Yet, at the moment, states like Washington, Oregon, Arizona, New Mexico, and Florida have higher COVID rates than Mississippi.

As we've seen earlier in the pandemic, states with strict lockdowns have had outbreaks that were just as bad as states that returned to normal too early.

There's something about the spread of COVID that is not yet fully understood. Or at least something that I have not seen explained.

I'm not an anti-vaxer. My entire family has been fully vaccinated since April. I really believe (almost) everyone should get vaccinated. I'm just saying I would like to see a scientific (not politically biased) explanation that aligns with most facts.

Are we not accounting for those who have already been infected?

Is environment (e.g. density population, weather, etc.) an important factor?

Are certain populations simply not getting tested?

Whatever is happening is more complex than what has been reported.

Any suggestion for a comprehensive explain of COVID's behavior throughout the pandemic?

Thanks!

 

[Zummi Gummi]

Get a vaccine, save the economy. Unless they don't want to save the economy - in which case, it's a fruitless proposition.

Getting covid seems a strange way to "stick it to the man."

 

[Parker in NYC]

Getting covid seems a strange way to "stick it to the man."

Well, some people lack for better modes of self-expression.

 

[danlb_2000]

Definitely get vaccinated BUT ...

I still believe experts don't fully understand how COVID spreads.

Let's compare states with the lowest vaccination rate:

• Mississippi - 63,417 doses per 100,000
• Alabama - 67,918
• Louisiana - 71,420
• Wyoming - 72,453
• Arkansas - 73,526

With states with the highest COVID rates as of today:

• Missouri - 90.3 cases per 100,000
• Nevada - 88.9
• Wyoming - 79.7
• Arkansas - 69.3
• Utah - 68.2

That's only 2 out of 5 that match. That's a great baseball batting average but a terrible QB pass completion percentage.

Mississippi has the lowest vaccination rate in the country. Yet, at the moment, states like Washington, Oregon, Arizona, New Mexico, and Florida have higher COVID rates than Mississippi.

As we've seen earlier in the pandemic, states with strict lockdowns have had outbreaks that were just as bad as states that returned to normal too early.

There's something about the spread of COVID that is not yet fully understood. Or at least something that I have not seen explained.

I'm not an anti-vaxer. My entire family has been fully vaccinated since April. I really believe (almost) everyone should get vaccinated. I'm just saying I would like to see a scientific (not politically biased) explanation that aligns with most facts.

Are we not accounting for those who have already been infected?

Is environment (e.g. density population, weather, etc.) an important factor?

Are certain populations simply not getting tested?

Whatever is happening is more complex than what has been reported.

Any suggestion for a comprehensive explain of COVID's behavior throughout the pandemic?

Thanks!

I am hoping someone does some good studies on this some day and tries to figure it out. I was looking at state wide population density at one point and that doesn't even line up. North and South Dakota have two of the highest infections counts per capita, but are two of the least densely populated states.

 

[ABQ]

UK now increasing to almost 23,000 cases in one day - the massive upward curve at nearly 50% week on week continues. Equivilent in USA would be around 100,000 cases a day, and if the rate continued you would see 200,000 cases the week after.

The UK had around 2000 cases last month, with a mass vaccination programme and then opened up most of it's economy.

The USA is around 2-4 weeks behind the UK with the Delta Indian Varient.

Horrific numbers.

This is a bit doom and gloom no?

We are in a great place in this country. Vaccines are incredible (mRNA specifically). Cases are not a great metric at this point. Yes you still have the risk of catching Covid but that is going to be the norm going forward. Your risk for hospitalization or death if vaccinated are incredible low. We very well might see a surge in cases but always watch for hospitalizations, that is metric that is important. Thus far, there is no indication that we are 2 or 4 weeks behind the UK. The Delta variant has been here longer than that.

To put an image into all this to make some things easier to see and understand, you have the daily UK cases, which yes, are alarming to look at:

Going from about 4k per day at the end of May till nearly 15k today. Nearly a 400% jump.

Then you look at the hospitalization rate for that same period:

I have isolated England and then the UK overall as England is by far the largest source of hospitalizations at this time. Though yes, the rate is increasing, it's not increasing at the same exponential rate and nor does it indicate that the Delta variant is resulting is severe cases. With over 10k cases per day there are still barely 225 hospitalizations.

 

[correcaminos]

I am hoping someone does some good studies on this some day and tries to figure it out. I was looking at state wide population density at one point and they doesn't even line up. North and South Dakota have two of the highest infections counter per capita, but are two of the least densely populated states.

I totally get what you are saying. This is somewhat fascinating and would be interesting to know if we can ever study to find out in the future. Hopefully, we can learn from this in and for the future as well.

 

[DonniePeverley]

I'll be honest on this. Number of cases means little to me. Severity of cases does. Deaths even more. Those numbers are showing a small increase in hospitalizations and nothing firm in what I saw for deaths. If the vaccine makes this a common cold, we did fine IMO.

I don't recall you posting until more recently but so far I sense you are one of the types who worries a lot about it. We live in a country where people don't care enough to vaccinate and didn't for following masking rules either. Not sure what you expect. However if we are behind the UK (which at this point not sure if that's accurate or not with how different we vaccinated) I'd still be comfortable with low hospitalizations. I'd love no deaths but being all dramatic won't change our reality. I just hope you are doing more than posting in a place like this to try to help people vaccinate otherwise honestly, these are now empty "omg the sky is falling" type of posts.

People aren't going to the lengths to have something shoved up their nose and throat for a cold. They are very ill.

 

[Kevin_W]

Definitely get vaccinated BUT ...

I still believe experts don't fully understand how COVID spreads.

Let's compare states with the lowest vaccination rate:

• Mississippi - 63,417 doses per 100,000
• Alabama - 67,918
• Louisiana - 71,420
• Wyoming - 72,453
• Arkansas - 73,526

With states with the highest COVID rates as of today:

• Missouri - 90.3 cases per 100,000
• Nevada - 88.9
• Wyoming - 79.7
• Arkansas - 69.3
• Utah - 68.2

That's only 2 out of 5 that match. That's a great baseball batting average but a terrible QB pass completion percentage.

Mississippi has the lowest vaccination rate in the country. Yet, at the moment, states like Washington, Oregon, Arizona, New Mexico, and Florida have higher COVID rates than Mississippi.

As we've seen earlier in the pandemic, states with strict lockdowns have had outbreaks that were just as bad as states that returned to normal too early.

There's something about the spread of COVID that is not yet fully understood. Or at least something that I have not seen explained.

I'm not an anti-vaxer. My entire family has been fully vaccinated since April. I really believe (almost) everyone should get vaccinated. I'm just saying I would like to see a scientific (not politically biased) explanation that aligns with most facts.

Are we not accounting for those who have already been infected?

Is environment (e.g. density population, weather, etc.) an important factor?

Are certain populations simply not getting tested?

Whatever is happening is more complex than what has been reported.

Any suggestion for a comprehensive explain of COVID's behavior throughout the pandemic?

Thanks!

Here is a graph from today's NYT, it shows a pretty good corelation:

And their quote: "

A month ago, a chart like this would have looked almost random, with little relationship between caseloads and vaccination rates. Now, there is a clear relationship. (A recent Washington Post analysis came to the same conclusion.)" ​

 

[Heppenheimer]

Definitely get vaccinated BUT ...

I still believe experts don't fully understand how COVID spreads.

Let's compare states with the lowest vaccination rate:

• Mississippi - 63,417 doses per 100,000
• Alabama - 67,918
• Louisiana - 71,420
• Wyoming - 72,453
• Arkansas - 73,526

With states with the highest COVID rates as of today:

• Missouri - 90.3 cases per 100,000
• Nevada - 88.9
• Wyoming - 79.7
• Arkansas - 69.3
• Utah - 68.2

That's only 2 out of 5 that match. That's a great baseball batting average but a terrible QB pass completion percentage.

Mississippi has the lowest vaccination rate in the country. Yet, at the moment, states like Washington, Oregon, Arizona, New Mexico, and Florida have higher COVID rates than Mississippi.

As we've seen earlier in the pandemic, states with strict lockdowns have had outbreaks that were just as bad as states that returned to normal too early.

There's something about the spread of COVID that is not yet fully understood. Or at least something that I have not seen explained.

I'm not an anti-vaxer. My entire family has been fully vaccinated since April. I really believe (almost) everyone should get vaccinated. I'm just saying I would like to see a scientific (not politically biased) explanation that aligns with most facts.

Are we not accounting for those who have already been infected?

Is environment (e.g. density population, weather, etc.) an important factor?

Are certain populations simply not getting tested?

Whatever is happening is more complex than what has been reported.

Any suggestion for a comprehensive explain of COVID's behavior throughout the pandemic?

Thanks!

Look at it more as a series of Venn diagrams rather than columns that need to match exactly.

 

[MaryJaneP]

Wasn't the whole initial focus (mitigations and vaccinations) based on flattening the curve (demands on the healthcare system) so that those that needed hospitalization weren't turned away because there was no room at the inn? If vaccinations lower the reaction of becoming infected to more minor symptoms many already handle at home, isn't that (at least partially) a victory?

 

[Flugell]

Fortunately deaths in the U.K. don’t appear to be increasing at the same rate as infections or hospitalisations, though I appreciate that there is usually a lag.

Google Search

 

[Yodascousin]

UK now increasing to almost 23,000 cases in one day - the massive upward curve at nearly 50% week on week continues. Equivilent in USA would be around 100,000 cases a day, and if the rate continued you would see 200,000 cases the week after.

The UK had around 2000 cases last month, with a mass vaccination programme and then opened up most of it's economy.

The USA is around 2-4 weeks behind the UK with the Delta Indian Varient.

Horrific numbers.

Yet all our restrictions will be gone by the 19th. When you compare the hospital and death numbers to the relative case numbers in previous waves the difference is clear the uk is now in a casedemic the vaccines are working

 

[GoofGoof]

Definitely get vaccinated BUT ...

I still believe experts don't fully understand how COVID spreads.

Let's compare states with the lowest vaccination rate:

• Mississippi - 63,417 doses per 100,000
• Alabama - 67,918
• Louisiana - 71,420
• Wyoming - 72,453
• Arkansas - 73,526

With states with the highest COVID rates as of today:

• Missouri - 90.3 cases per 100,000
• Nevada - 88.9
• Wyoming - 79.7
• Arkansas - 69.3
• Utah - 68.2

That's only 2 out of 5 that match. That's a great baseball batting average but a terrible QB pass completion percentage.

Mississippi has the lowest vaccination rate in the country. Yet, at the moment, states like Washington, Oregon, Arizona, New Mexico, and Florida have higher COVID rates than Mississippi.

As we've seen earlier in the pandemic, states with strict lockdowns have had outbreaks that were just as bad as states that returned to normal too early.

There's something about the spread of COVID that is not yet fully understood. Or at least something that I have not seen explained.

I'm not an anti-vaxer. My entire family has been fully vaccinated since April. I really believe (almost) everyone should get vaccinated. I'm just saying I would like to see a scientific (not politically biased) explanation that aligns with most facts.

Are we not accounting for those who have already been infected?

Is environment (e.g. density population, weather, etc.) an important factor?

Are certain populations simply not getting tested?

Whatever is happening is more complex than what has been reported.

Any suggestion for a comprehensive explain of COVID's behavior throughout the pandemic?

Thanks!

Part of the reason is state borders are just arbitrary lines drawn on a map. What really needs to happen is a look at the town or at least county level. I live in PA and there are counties with extremely high vaccine rates and counties with very low rates. The state as a whole has a high rate but that doesn’t totally shield the lower rate counties from spread. We have also seen some evidence that areas that act as travel hubs, especially for international travel, have a higher impact from the various variants coming into US. So popular Intl airports on the East coast are getting travelers coming in from Europe and Asia who could be more likely to be carrying the delta variant. Once it takes hold here it will eventually spread to the Midwest and West coast and South but the area to watch out for is probably the NE and maybe Miami or Atlanta. Chicago is also big for International flights. I do think we’ve seen less of an impact from travel now that there is a requirement for a negative covid test to get into the country. Not perfect but it should help a lot to mitigate the spread of variants that are more prevalent in other countries.