Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[havoc315]

Well, let's dig a little deeper into Israel. Their 2 week average of cases is up 86% but 2 weeks ago they had 16 cases as their average and today its 29. That really isn't statistically significant but some articles and news outlets would have you think differently. Covid is all but smashed in Israel.

Sad fact is that Covid will most likely be lingering for a while, but not in the numbers we were seeing in January.

I 100% agree that Israel will not go back to where they were in January. But it's also false to say that they only increased from "16 to 29."
I had the same discussion about the UK here, when the average had only gone up to 2000, but it was clear that the trend lines were taking it much higher. Those averages are lagging.
So it's not truly 29... we don't know how high it's going to go, but it's going to go significantly higher than 29. Over the last 4 days, they have been over 29 every day. I wouldn't be surprised to see them get back up to 100-200 per day or higher. (less likely, but I wouldn't be completely shocked if it rose to 500-1000 per day). Now, that's still VERY LOW compared to the height of the disease. But it's not insignificant -- And it's clearly not herd immunity.

January 2020 will not be repeated in Israel, or the United States, thankfully. But I do fear we began celebrating a bit too soon, especially with our vaccination rate starting to lag behind other first world nations.

 

[Heppenheimer]

This is where statistics sometimes fail to tell the whole picture. The 7 day daily average of new cases in Israel stands at 42. That’s new cases a day in the whole country (equivalent to 1,500 cases a day in the US) . So when 1/3 are in vaccinated people that’s 14 breakthrough infections among 5-6M vaccinated people. The stat of 1/3 sounds a lot more ominous until you see the raw number.

Half the cases being in children is also not surprising since they decided to hold off on vaccinating teens under 18 due to the rare issues with heart inflammation. That was a mistake and it looks like they have changed course and started vaccinating kids now. I hope people in the US see this and react appropriately. There is a false narrative out there that kids don’t get Covid but it’s just not true. The vaccines work great but people just need to be wiling to use them

You commonly see this in advertisements for various medications within the same class. They'll quote a study that shows a 50% risk reduction of drug A vs drug B, but the fine print indicates that the numbers they're actually talking about are on the order of single digits. Like 3 vs 6. Both drugs might be effective in absolute terms, but the actual differences between them is marginal.

 

[Horizons '83]

I 100% agree that Israel will not go back to where they were in January. But it's also false to say that they only increased from "16 to 29."
I had the same discussion about the UK here, when the average had only gone up to 2000, but it was clear that the trend lines were taking it much higher. Those averages are lagging.
So it's not truly 29... we don't know how high it's going to go, but it's going to go significantly higher than 29. Over the last 4 days, they have been over 29 every day. I wouldn't be surprised to see them get back up to 100-200 per day or higher. (less likely, but I wouldn't be completely shocked if it rose to 500-1000 per day). Now, that's still VERY LOW compared to the height of the disease. But it's not insignificant -- And it's clearly not herd immunity.

January 2020 will not be repeated in Israel, or the United States, thankfully. But I do fear we began celebrating a bit too soon, especially with our vaccination rate starting to lag behind other first world nations.

Totally get that.

I have been trending the data since March of last year, and have been using 2 week average as my barometer since daily totals fluctuate so wildly. A simple data dump/backlog of tests can cause outliers so that is why I prefer the 2 week average metric. It's certainly something to keep an eye on but nothing I'd even consider as an issue or wave at this point. 123 cases is still miniscule at this point.

 

[havoc315]

Totally get that.

I have been trending the data since March of last year, and have been using 2 week average as my barometer since daily totals fluctuate so wildly. A simple data dump/backlog of tests can cause outliers so that is why I prefer the 2 week average metric. It's certainly something to keep an eye on but nothing I'd even consider as an issue or wave at this point. 123 cases is still miniscule at this point.

Wait another week to see if it was just a data dump or the beginning of an actual surge. But the sense I get is that this is the start of an actual surge. Now, to be clear, I'm not talking about a nightmare scenario and return to January peaks. But Israeli officials are already talking about putting back in some restrictions that were lifted.

 

[danlb_2000]

We interpret the science and data differently.

View attachment 565475
Now, based on that info, I won’t be quivering under a table as I sometimes seem to be painted here for simply being realistic (nor was I at the height of the pandemic, unvaccinated.)

But I wouldn’t want the liability of telling someone they are “good to go” because that is simply not the case. I wouldn’t want to be the one to tell someone less informed to go do whatever you want, and then they come back and tell me they got infected. My advice would instead be to proceed with caution. That’s all.

You can play in the street all you want and then tell me you’re “good to go” playing in the street and the statistics are in your favor. It’s still not a smart thing to do (especially depending on the street where you live.)

You left of the two notes from that data...

*916 (26%) of 3,538 hospitalizations reported as asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19.
†122 (18%) of 671 fatal cases reported as asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19.

 

[wdisney9000]

Why do people continue to label things such as businesses opening back up and mask mandates being dropped as, "celebrating"? Whose celebrating?

Walking into a grocery store or gym without a mask on is a far cry from "celebrating".

 

[DisneyCane]

We interpret the science and data differently.

View attachment 565475
Now, based on that info, I won’t be quivering under a table as I sometimes seem to be painted here for simply being realistic (nor was I at the height of the pandemic, unvaccinated.)

But I wouldn’t want the liability of telling someone they are “good to go” because that is simply not the case. I wouldn’t want to be the one to tell someone less informed to go do whatever you want, and then they come back and tell me they got infected. My advice would instead be to proceed with caution. That’s all.

You can play in the street all you want and then tell me you’re “good to go” playing in the street and the statistics are in your favor. It’s still not a smart thing to do (especially depending on the street where you live.)

Clearly, we interpret the data very differently. @danlb_2000 beat me to the footnotes.

You left of the two notes from that data...

*916 (26%) of 3,538 hospitalizations reported as asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19.
†122 (18%) of 671 fatal cases reported as asymptomatic or not related to COVID-19.

Doing the math, out of more than 144 million fully vaccinated people in the US, 0.00038% (3.8 per million) have died due to COVID and 0.0018% (1.8 per 100k) have been hospitalized due to COVID. This is over a period of several months for many of the fully vaccinated. These stats also include a huge number of the highest risk, elderly people who were first to be vaccinated and therefore most likely (due to exposure time) to have a breakthrough infection.

I don't know how old you are, but for me (46/male), my odds of dying of any cause within the next twelve months is 0.35%. The additional risk off dying from COVID when fully vaccinated is three orders of magnitude lower and is completely irrelevant to the risks associated with life in general.

Given all current variants, if you are fully vaccinated you are good to go just as much as you are good to go on Expedition Everest or RnRC and may have an undiagnosed heart condition that causes you to die.

 

[DonniePeverley]

And data out of Israel.

That's very worrying. Similar data to the UK.

The USA is only a month behind the UK - no one is learning nothing .

 

[jlhwdw]

Our vaccines are proven to protect against the Delta variant. What else should we be doing?

 

[Kevin_W]

Our vaccines are proven to protect against the Delta variant. What else should we be doing?

Having more people get those vaccines is the simple answer.

 

[danlb_2000]

We interpret the science and data differently.

View attachment 565475
Now, based on that info, I won’t be quivering under a table as I sometimes seem to be painted here for simply being realistic (nor was I at the height of the pandemic, unvaccinated.)

But I wouldn’t want the liability of telling someone they are “good to go” because that is simply not the case. I wouldn’t want to be the one to tell someone less informed to go do whatever you want, and then they come back and tell me they got infected. My advice would instead be to proceed with caution. That’s all.

You can play in the street all you want and then tell me you’re “good to go” playing in the street and the statistics are in your favor. It’s still not a smart thing to do (especially depending on the street where you live.)

So exactly how do you define "proceeding with caution"?

 

[DonniePeverley]

So exactly how do you define "proceeding with caution"?

For a starters you don't just abandon basic safety measures like masks - especially indoors.

 

[GoofGoof]

The administration says the US will not hit the goal of 70% of all adults vaccinated by July 4th as it will take several weeks longer to hit that target. However, we have already reached 70% of adults over 30 with 1 shot and and they expect to hit 70% of adults 27+ by July 4.

The Biden administration won't reach its "aspirational" goal of getting 70% of adult Americans at least partially vaccinated for COVID-19 by the Fourth of July, White House Coronavirus Response CoordinatorJeff Zients said Tuesday.

Sixteen states and the District of Columbia have reached the goal already – but some states are at less than 50% of all adults, Zients said at a White House briefing. Still, the goal of at least partially vaccinating 70% of Americans ages 30 and older has been reached, he said, adding that the administration also is on track to hit the 70% target for ages 27 and older by the Fourth of July weekend.

Zients said it will take a few more weeks to reach 70% of all adults but called the current numbers "amazing progress."

"This is cause of celebration, and that is exactly what Americans will be able to do on July 4th, celebrate independence from the virus," Zients said. "We will have a Fourth of July celebration that is beyond anyone's expectations."

Dr. Anthony Fauci, Biden's chief medical adviser, stressed that the press to get more people vaccinated will continue.

"No one should think that when we reach 70% (of all adults) across the country that we are done," Fauci said. "We are not done until we completely crush this outbreak."

Biden administration admits it won't reach July 4 vaccination goal; CDC studies explain vaccination slowdown: Latest COVID-19 updates

The Biden administration won't hit its goal of getting 70% of adult Americans at least partially vaccinated for COVID-19 by July 4. Latest news.

news.yahoo.com

 

[Parker in NYC]

Why do people continue to label things such as businesses opening back up and mask mandates being dropped as, "celebrating"? Whose celebrating?

Walking into a grocery store or gym without a mask on is a far cry from "celebrating".

Give them their little party, they don't have much else to do with their lives.

 

[Horizons '83]

For a starters you don't just abandon basic safety measures like masks - especially indoors.

That ship has sailed.

Doctors offices and airports/airlines are the only places I see that are requiring them in the US.

 

[Parker in NYC]

That ship has sailed.

Doctors offices and airports/airlines are the only places I see that are requiring them in the US.

And public transit, at least in NYC.

EDIT: And live performance theaters that have reopened. At least, all that I'm aware of.

 

[DonniePeverley]

That ship has sailed.

Doctors offices and airports/airlines are the only places I see that are requiring them in the US.

Big mistake with Delta coming.

 

[GimpYancIent]

And public transit, at least in NYC.

EDIT: And live performance theaters that have reopened. At least, all that I'm aware of.

NYC is massive enough it generates its own climate so it is reasonable to have its own unique hold on protocols.

 

[Horizons '83]

Big mistake with Delta coming.

I think we have heard this before with the many variants that are worse than the prior one. I'm not personally worried about any of the variants we have seen. I along with 144 million others in this country are vaccinated and shouldn't be worried. I would say its time to move on, but we already have and I don't think that is a mistake.

 

[Horizons '83]

And public transit, at least in NYC.

EDIT: And live performance theaters that have reopened. At least, all that I'm aware of.

I'll be going to a few concerts in July, 20K capacity amphitheaters and I can't wait. As of today there will be no mask requirement or vaccination proof/Negative test. The venues are outdoors however.