Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DCBaker]

"The United States is devoting $3.2 billion to advance development of antiviral pills for COVID-19 and other dangerous viruses that could turn into pandemics.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the nation’s top infectious disease expert, announced the investment Thursday at a White House briefing as part of a new “antiviral program for pandemics” to develop drugs to address symptoms caused by potentially dangerous viruses like the coronavirus.

The pills for COVID-19, which would be used to minimize symptoms after infection, are in development and could begin arriving by year’s end, pending the completion of clinical trials. The funding will speed those clinical trials and provide additional support to private sector research, development and manufacturing.

Fauci said the new program would invest in “accelerating things that are already in progress” for COVID-19 but also would work to innovate new therapies for other viruses."

US to spend $3.2B on treatments for COVID-19, other viruses

The United States is devoting more than $3 billion to speed development of treatments for COVID-19 and other dangerous viruses.

apnews.com

 

[mmascari]

And now that we've relaxed and eliminated almost all mitigation measures, do we just want to sit back and see what damage the delta variant can inflict in unvaccinated children?

EUA is only possible in an emergency. The benefit has to exceed the risk. There is some thought that if Covid cases drop low enough by September then there won’t be a true emergency anymore. This happened in Israel recently where they delayed approval for 12-15 year olds because cases there dropped so low. I think one aspect that should help ease people’s apprehension for kids under 12 is the lower dose being trialed now. The dose is 1/3 the adult dose so in theory should reduce adverse events and side effects. The trial they are running now may not show efficacy if nobody in the placebo group gets covid but as long as it shows the vaccines are safe I think they may approve it anyway based on the high efficacy in other groups.

This reinforces how the rampant spread that was going on during the first vaccine trials helped to speed up the process. It was so much easier to have lots of infected people in the control group when there were 150,000+ daily infections than now with 13,000.

If we only had the original strain today, with the current vaccinated adult population, and the reduced community spread, that benefit vs risk calculation would be different. The big question is, how does the delta variant change that calculation?

We could assume delta is enough worse to tip the scale. We could assume community spread isn't going to stay as low as numbers suggest in the specialized populations that kids congregate, schools. We could wait for actual numbers to show if either of those assumption is correct or not. Areas at the high end of vaccinated population will have different math than areas at the low end. They could approve it with nuance around community spread in areas the kid will be. They could approve it on the assumption all those things are true and want a uniform recommendation. They could wait for the numbers to roll in, if they're not bad then no foul. But, if they're bad, that's real people that could have had different outcomes.

It's definitely not a simple decision and the current environment it's being made in doesn't look the same as when the original EUA for over 65 was done.

If this was a cancer drug and every one of those kids was at deaths door, the math would be way different. Reinforces how careful vaccine approval is vs just about every other thing.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

The problem in the UK is that they were taking a "wait and see approach" to second dosing. If your stat is correct, it likely reflects individuals that had only received one dose. The second dose is what is said to offer greater protection against the variants.

Even if that’s the issue... what does that mean for everyone with the single dose J&J?

 

[Willmark]

Cause everybody knows those stupid selfish people chose to have conditions like autoimmune disorders, cancer, etc. and even catching Covid. Good thing we have vaccines. Too bad we didn't have one during the black plaque.

Not sure they even had dentists back then…

 

[Heppenheimer]

This reinforces how the rampant spread that was going on during the first vaccine trials helped to speed up the process. It was so much easier to have lots of infected people in the control group when there were 150,000+ daily infections than now with 13,000.

If we only had the original strain today, with the current vaccinated adult population, and the reduced community spread, that benefit vs risk calculation would be different. The big question is, how does the delta variant change that calculation?

We could assume delta is enough worse to tip the scale. We could assume community spread isn't going to stay as low as numbers suggest in the specialized populations that kids congregate, schools. We could wait for actual numbers to show if either of those assumption is correct or not. Areas at the high end of vaccinated population will have different math than areas at the low end. They could approve it with nuance around community spread in areas the kid will be. They could approve it on the assumption all those things are true and want a uniform recommendation. They could wait for the numbers to roll in, if they're not bad then no foul. But, if they're bad, that's real people that could have had different outcomes.

It's definitely not a simple decision and the current environment it's being made in doesn't look the same as when the original EUA for over 65 was done.

If this was a cancer drug and every one of those kids was at deaths door, the math would be way different. Reinforces how careful vaccine approval is vs just about every other thing.

And to add even more uncertainty to the mix... the pediatric vaccine trials aren't being performed uniformally across the country. By their very nature, the trials need to take place a pediatric referral centers, which tend to be located only in large cities. I forget the exact locations of the Moderna trial, but when I looked it up, they weren't representative of the US as a whole. This might prove less of a problem in Finland, where most of the population clusters in a relatively small area of the country, but it might mean we miss significant clusters of the pandemic in the US and Spain.

The other problem is that by the very nature of pediatric trials, there's going to be a considerable selection bias. It seems highly unlikely that parents who have not themselves received a vaccine would volunteer their child for a clinical trial. So, the kids in the trial will be mostly surrounded by a bubble of vaccinated individuals, and the trial will over-represent kids who have a much lower baseline risk of infection. I don't see a viable way to overcome this bias, however.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Even if that’s the issue... what does that mean for everyone with the single dose J&J?

Is Johnson & Johnson approved and used in the UK? And if so, did they fold these numbers into the "fully vaccinated" cohort?

 

[spaldingclan]

theyre using the Aztrazeneca shot in the UK...no where near as good a results as the Moderna or Pfizer one we use here...like 20% less affective

 

[hopemax]

Even if that’s the issue... what does that mean for everyone with the single dose J&J?

Nothing. It’s a different type of vaccine. If a vaccine is designed to be a single dose and it’s adequate, it’s adequate. But the U.K. bet that a single dose of the AstraZeneca would be “good enough” even though it was designed to be two doses. It’s not “single dose = bad.” It’s taking half of the prescribed dosage = inadequate against the Delta variant.

J&J still needs to prove efficacy against Delta and starting out at a lower threshold than the mRNAs may mean a booster.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Not sure they even had dentists back then…

I did a rotation once in rural eastern Kentucky. Lots of black plaque there. I didn't know teeth could be that color.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Nothing. It’s a different type of vaccine. If a vaccine is designed to be a single dose and it’s adequate, it’s adequate. But the U.K. bet that a single dose of the AstraZeneca would be “good enough” even though it was designed to be two doses. It’s not “single dose = bad.” It’s taking half of the prescribed dosage = inadequate against the Delta variant.

J&J still needs to prove efficacy against Delta and starting out at a lower threshold than the mRNAs may mean a booster.

Oh so it the delta issue in the uk specific to people with the AstraZeneca?

Sorry trying to keep up with all of this is difficult!

 

[Lilofan]

I did a rotation once in rural eastern Kentucky. Lots of black plaque there. I didn't know teeth could be that color.

Easier said then done, floss and brush with flouride toothpaste after every meal.

 

[hopemax]

Oh so it the delta issue in the uk specific to people with the AstraZeneca?

Sorry trying to keep up with all of this is difficult!

Yes.

I think they also used some Pfizer and I don’t know if they followed the dosing instructions for that one or not. J&J just got approved in the U.K. on May 28th so there isn’t anything to learn about that one through this U.K. outbreak.

 

[Parker in NYC]

My optimism is waning. Send sedatives.

 

[Heppenheimer]

My optimism is waning. Send sedatives.

I'm optimistic for the health of people who are already vaccinated.

I'm pessimistic that too many "adults" who should know better are leaving the under 12 year old population needlessly vulnerable.

I'm pessimistic that failing to at least get our own house in order in the US will leave us vulnerable to the supply shocks we're currently experiencing in both material and labor shortages.

 

[Tom P.]

New rule: Every new post in this thread must include at least one positive/optimistic statement regarding Covid.

I have no power to enforce this rule. Or even to make rules. But I assume everyone will obey me.

 

[Lilofan]

My optimism is waning. Send sedatives.

In regards to the state flower of CA, mix 2 parts California poppy with hot water to make a very relaxing tea to send one to la la land.

 

[Parker in NYC]

New rule: Every new post in this thread must include at least one positive/optimistic statement regarding Covid.

I have no power to enforce this rule. Or even to make rules. But I assume everyone will obey me.

I’m thrilled to see friends again and paint the town reddish.

I’m worried for my unvaccinated friends and enemies.

 

[Lilofan]

New rule: Every new post in this thread must include at least one positive/optimistic statement regarding Covid.

I have no power to enforce this rule. Or even to make rules. But I assume everyone will obey me.

One optimistic statement is being a paint contractor is a booming business during covid. I can't even get someone anytime soon to paint my house because they are so busy.

 

[Yodascousin]

in the uk we don’t have j and j yet the majority of people have received either AZ of Pfizer. For AZ the greatest protection requires 8-12 weeks between doses but we have been using this dosing regime for Pfizer as well. Both vaccines are above 90 percent effective against hospitalisation against the delta variant so there is absolutely no difference between the vaccines when comparing them against each other for severe illness and death. The 20 percent difference that has been handed about on here is against infection not severity.

Maldonado regarding the 12 deaths nobody is concerned it’s what is called the vaccine paradox if u vaccinate everyone people will still die

 

[RobbinsDad]

I enjoy reading your opinion as I do others on this topic and part of me agrees with you, but I want to point out something that I bolded. I firmly believe in people taking responsibility for their actions or in this case, their inactions, but your statement of let them suffer won't just fall on their shoulders. By their own reluctance, I call it stupidity in some cases, due to misleading information from certain sources in this country, will effect us all greatly. If rates do go up in the fall due to this variant and they just might, those unvaccinated people will cause a cascade event that could easily put us back in lockdown.

I dread this happening and honestly I fear it as this point, but sadly there's nothing we can do to get these misguided and in some cases, selfish people to get vaccinated. It's frustrating to say the least and I think too many are thinking that the virus is over and doing a end zone celebration. The Delta variant scares me and this virus seems to have more legs than a spider at this point.

I get it. That's said mostly in anger. I want things to turn around but I also despise the idea that those who embrace and spread fear and lies will get their lives back the same as me, and I certainly don't see any possibility of the non-vaxxers embracing reason without some sort of consequence. I find it so sad and ironic that the many of the same idiots who defend their choice not to fight the virus through vaccination based on personal liberty, are the same who would condemn someone for conscientiously objecting to armed conflict. Freedom isn't free - and that's from enemies seen and unseen.