CastAStone
5th gate? Just build a new resort Bob.
Anyway, on topic, a ton of stuff went back to normal this morning.
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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- coronavirus covid covid-19
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GoofGoof
Premium Member
To be fair 59% of the total population with 1 dose is about the level Israel is at and they are averaging a few cases a day now. They reached that level a few months ahead of CA and some other states so we could still be heading that way in a number of regions. The pandemic is likely actually over in Israel and if every state got to 59% vaccinated we would likely be at real herd immunity. I’m encouraged by the cases being down, but we shouldn’t just accept the vaccine level as is. We still need more people to get vaccinated.
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Disstevefan1
Well-Known Member
80% and 84% is really effective! Folks forget the regular yearly flu shot is about 50 percent effective.The only published papers I could find on this matter don't say quite what you claim.
This observational study from Denmark found that prior infection from COVID overall reduced the risk of subsequent infection by 80%. Pretty substantial, but less than most of the vaccines available currently in first world countries. Crucially, though, the reduction in infections for people over age 65 in this cohort was only 47%. The abstract, though, doesn't mention the severity of the re-infection.
This study from the UK looked at the question from a slightly different angle, but found similar results. Prior infection was 84% protective against re-infection:
SARS-CoV-2 infection rates of antibody-positive compared with antibody-negative health-care workers in England: a large, multicentre, prospective cohort study (SIREN) - PubMed
Department of Health and Social Care of the UK Government, Public Health England, The National Institute for Health Research, with contributions from the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish governments.pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Again, pretty good, but substantially lower than immunity generated by the vaccines. This study was performed on hospital workers, so the cohort above age 65 was probably substantially lower than the Danish study.
But just like we don't know the duration of immunity from the vaccines yet, we also don't know how long natural immunity will last. And the question of protection from variants is also not yet known.
The most helpful hypothetical study would be one that compares protection from infection via vaccine versus prior infection during a single surge. But I couldn't find one that answers this question, and given the increasingly high rates of vaccination in the OECD countries, we may not see such a study.
Willmark
Well-Known Member
There are a number of articles out there from various sites. Again I’m not linking to any one site because the now closed political forum proved time and again the futility of doing so.The only published papers I could find on this matter don't say quite what you claim.
This observational study from Denmark found that prior infection from COVID overall reduced the risk of subsequent infection by 80%. Pretty substantial, but less than most of the vaccines available currently in first world countries. Crucially, though, the reduction in infections for people over age 65 in this cohort was only 47%. The abstract, though, doesn't mention the severity of the re-infection.
This study from the UK looked at the question from a slightly different angle, but found similar results. Prior infection was 84% protective against re-infection:
SARS-CoV-2 infection rates of antibody-positive compared with antibody-negative health-care workers in England: a large, multicentre, prospective cohort study (SIREN) - PubMed
Department of Health and Social Care of the UK Government, Public Health England, The National Institute for Health Research, with contributions from the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish governments.
Again, pretty good, but substantially lower than immunity generated by the vaccines. This study was performed on hospital workers, so the cohort above age 65 was probably substantially lower than the Danish study.
But just like we don't know the duration of immunity from the vaccines yet, we also don't know how long natural immunity will last. And the question of protection from variants is also not yet known.
The most helpful hypothetical study would be one that compares protection from infection via vaccine versus prior infection during a single surge. But I couldn't find one that answers this question, and given the increasingly high rates of vaccination in the OECD countries, we may not see such a study.
Also- humans naturally get over viruses through time otherwise we wouldn’t have survived thousands to millions of years otherwise in our various forms of hominids.
Thinking (not saying you) that ONLY vaccinations count is short sighted IMO.
Heppenheimer
Well-Known Member
When dealing with population-level data, though, vaccines are clearly the superior option for getting through this. We never really "got over" most viral illnesses prior to vaccination, and some of them left horrible death and disability tolls in their wake. For example, measles, influenza and smallpox probably collectively reduced the native population of the Americas by over 90% from their pre-Columbian height. Although they were more naturally resistant than non-native Americans, these and other diseases weren't exactly a walk in the park for Europeans, Asians and Africans either, particularly smallpox. I'm old enough to have grand uncles and grand aunts who didn't survive childhood due to diseases that are now vaccine preventable. The only reason I'm here today is because my grandparents got lucky.
The delta variant adds extra urgency to get more people vaccinated.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Thank you for quoting that post. I grow tired of the anti-science posting their true colors, deleting the post, then claiming “I’m not anti science!” As they retreat and then try to repost the same...but “more sneaky like”
No children have gotten it yet, ace. It’s being studied for that...and if no risk, line the kiddies up like the ice cream shop.
mouths closed...arms out. Suffering fools is not a “requirement”
Willmark
Well-Known Member
I don’t believe I’ve argued that vaccines aren’t the way to go or aren’t more effective.
I am pointing out the focus solely on vaccination rates is short sighted and doesn’t tell the whole picture.
pixie225
Well-Known Member
Actually we hit 70% today! https://www.syracuse.com/coronaviru...h-at-least-1-covid-vaccine-dose-cdc-says.html
Heppenheimer
Well-Known Member
Maybe its a hair-trigger response on my part from all those bogus pre-vaccine discussions a year ago arguing for "natural herd immunity".
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
the Stupidbury Tales
Chi84
Premium Member
Illinois is at 69% with at least one shot and 52% fully vaccinated. The positivity rate is at 0.8% and today the state announced it will switch from daily to weekly updates.
Willmark
Well-Known Member
It’s possible.
Its true that’s how we survived diseases throughout human history before vaccines.
lazyboy97o
Well-Known Member
We have records of certain diseases going back centuries and even millennia. This wouldn’t be the case if your claim was true.
Heppenheimer
Well-Known Member
But it was a game of Russian roulette. Particularly for smallpox, diptheria, polio, and to a lesser extent, measles.
And not every infectious disease confers immunity to those lucky enough to recover.
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Smooth
Well-Known Member
Necessity of COVID-19 vaccination in previously infected individuals
Background The purpose of this study was to evaluate the necessity of COVID-19 vaccination in persons previously infected with SARS-CoV-2. Methods Employees of the Cleveland Clinic Health System working in Ohio on Dec 16, 2020, the day COVID-19 vaccination was started, were included. Any...
www.medrxiv.org
We "survived" to the extent that you'd have cycles where a newly prevalent virus might kill 10-20% of the population every now and then.
The Black Death may have wiped out 1/3rd of Europe's population.
We've been "vaccinating" for quite a while even before formal vaccines. George Washington ordered all his troops to be inoculated for small pox-- Even though, at the time, such inoculation would kill about 2-3% of them.
wannabeBelle
Well-Known Member
I figured that was just a smidge away, given the numbers last night. New York has been opening up rapidly and so far nothing in terms of an outbreak. I hope this is the way it goes for all of us and we can soon be back in the Magic enjoying each other's company. Marie
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
...how much you willing to pay for it?
wannabeBelle
Well-Known Member
That is always the question, isnt it?? Marie...how much you willing to pay for it?
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