• The new WDWMAGIC iOS app is here!
    Stay up to date with the latest Disney news, photos, and discussions right from your iPhone. The app is free to download and gives you quick access to news articles, forums, photo galleries, park hours, weather and Lightning Lane pricing. Learn More
  • Welcome to the WDWMAGIC.COM Forums!
    Please take a look around, and feel free to sign up and join the community.

Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

Status
Not open for further replies.

seascape

Well-Known Member
I didn't want to make daily reports anymore, I was hoping for weekly reports after Florida reports. Anyway, because today's NY Times report was bad, I have to. Wyoming increases to 16. Nevada increased to 11 and now West Virginia, Washington and Louisiana joined Colorado in double digits at 10. Not a good day. The country also increased to 15,091 or 4.55 per 100,000. In other words the Times is reporting 5 per 100,000.
 

disneygeek90

Well-Known Member
Does anyone else look forward to the video that will undoubtedly be released of some chucklehead in EPCOT accidentally trying to drink and forgetting that the chucklehead still has a mask on, kinda like Ted Stryker's drinking problem on the movie "Airplane"?
On the contrary, I still find myself start to move my arm up before I take a sip, a la Pavlov's dog. I was conditioned for over a year to remove my mask prior to taking a sip when in the park.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
My county went to weekly reporting on Tuesdays now and today’s report was 99 cases over the last 7 days which is about 14 cases a day on average or 1.7 cases a day per 100K. Exactly a month ago we had 125 cases in just one day. The drop off has been pretty dramatic. The vaccines really do work 🥳🥳🥳🎉🎉🎉👍👍👍
 

Kevin_W

Well-Known Member
My county went to weekly reporting on Tuesdays now and today’s report was 99 cases over the last 7 days which is about 14 cases a day on average or 1.7 cases a day per 100K. Exactly a month ago we had 125 cases in just one day. The drop off has been pretty dramatic. The vaccines really do work 🥳🥳🥳🎉🎉🎉👍👍👍

My county (which has been the highest in the state) is at a 7-day average of 3.6 per 100k. 1 month ago it was 11.3 and 2 months ago it was 18.5. So I'm liking this trend and hope it continues.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
I think it’s too soon to draw many conclusions yet, but at least one study is finding that stricter covid mitigations resulted in an economic upside vs places with looser restrictions. The theory which I have often supported throughout this pandemic is summarized here:

Yet for much of the past year, some experts have quietly advanced a counterargument: that economic activity is mainly affected by the rising and falling severity of the pandemic itself — not the relative strictness of the measures implemented to mitigate it. In fact, these experts argued, nonpharmaceutical interventions, or NPIs — a set of 20 government responses such as business closures, mask mandates and stay-at-home advisories that Oxford University rates according to stringency— can have an economic upside. The more the virus seems to be under control, the more eager people will be to participate in the economy.

For those who followed this thread along from the start you may remember me talking at nauseam about the economy not working when a large number of people sit out. This study is supporting that theory. I think many more studies will be needed and I caution anyone jumping to conclusions because the economy is driven by different segments of the economy in different regions (tourism vs manufacturing vs technology vs service companies, etc). It’s an interesting theory and an interesting read. I’m sure we will see many more similar studies going forward and the next phase will be to observe the impact on vaccination level on the economy going forward.

 

ABQ

Well-Known Member
I think it’s too soon to draw many conclusions yet, but at least one study is finding that stricter covid mitigations resulted in an economic upside vs places with looser restrictions. The theory which I have often supported throughout this pandemic is summarized here:

Yet for much of the past year, some experts have quietly advanced a counterargument: that economic activity is mainly affected by the rising and falling severity of the pandemic itself — not the relative strictness of the measures implemented to mitigate it. In fact, these experts argued, nonpharmaceutical interventions, or NPIs — a set of 20 government responses such as business closures, mask mandates and stay-at-home advisories that Oxford University rates according to stringency— can have an economic upside. The more the virus seems to be under control, the more eager people will be to participate in the economy.

For those who followed this thread along from the start you may remember me talking at nauseam about the economy not working when a large number of people sit out. This study is supporting that theory. I think many more studies will be needed and I caution anyone jumping to conclusions because the economy is driven by different segments of the economy in different regions (tourism vs manufacturing vs technology vs service companies, etc). It’s an interesting theory and an interesting read. I’m sure we will see many more similar studies going forward and the next phase will be to observe the impact on vaccination level on the economy going forward.

They really need to find a way to include unemployment rates in their judgement of fairing better or worse. The way this study just sort of shrugs and say "meh, unemployment is too complicated to include" (paraphrasing) so they ignore the fact that CA's unemployment rate is nearly double that of FL's is quite a big thing to just leave out of the equation.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
They really need to find a way to include unemployment rates in their judgement of fairing better or worse. The way this study just sort of shrugs and say "meh, unemployment is too complicated to include" (paraphrasing) so they ignore the fact that CA's unemployment rate is nearly double that of FL's is quite a big thing to just leave out of the equation.
Exactly. They used GDP as the primary metric. So if a bar or restaurant was open in FL and thus the workers were not counted as “unemployed” that drives unemployment down but if the restaurant is half empty then it doesn’t move the needle on economic impact and they could have even lost money being open. What unemployment rate alone also fails to address is people back in work but with reduced hours or reduced tips. Looking at GDP and overall macro economic factors you will always see less impact from lower wage hourly workers being unemployed especially when they were supplemented with extra unemployment comp as well as stimulus checks so they still had money to buy food and goods. It’s easy from a political standpoint to point at unemployment rates and claim victory but there’s more to it than that.

I think composition of the industries in a state is likely a bigger driver here. For example TX has a large stake in the oil industry and oil prices tanked last year while CA is much larger in agriculture which thrived with reduced foreign imports of food. FL has more reliance on travel and tourism which was still way down despite things being more open locally. Things like manufacturing were negatively impacted due to international supply chain issues.
 

mmascari

Well-Known Member
My county went to weekly reporting on Tuesdays now
Every time I read one of these updates about a change in reporting frequency, or the FL one I think @DisneyCane said was reported to cost a ton to produce, it makes me wonder how lucky I am. Especially when counties are maintaining data daily, but only publishing it weekly.

Our county stood up a PowerBI dashboard. It looks like they update the underlying data daily. Then, the dashboard is just done. There's no PDF, or report, or extra task. The dashboard just shows the new data once it's been included.

Same with the state level, might be a different tool.

I wonder how much setting these up the first time cost vs how much the PDF report generation costs every day (or week now). Not a PowerBi recommendation, but one that reporting agencies should have automatic dashboards based on the data, not complex assembly processes.
 

Phil12

Well-Known Member
But I live in a Florida county in which only 32% of the eligible population has been vaccinated. And, unfortunately, there are a lot of other counties within this state that have similar vaccination rates. Therefore, it doesn't matter how good the vaccine works if the majority of the populace refuses to get it. It's going to be a long summer, fall, winter, and spring. I'm still looking forward to 2023.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
I think it’s too soon to draw many conclusions yet, but at least one study is finding that stricter covid mitigations resulted in an economic upside vs places with looser restrictions. The theory which I have often supported throughout this pandemic is summarized here:

Yet for much of the past year, some experts have quietly advanced a counterargument: that economic activity is mainly affected by the rising and falling severity of the pandemic itself — not the relative strictness of the measures implemented to mitigate it. In fact, these experts argued, nonpharmaceutical interventions, or NPIs — a set of 20 government responses such as business closures, mask mandates and stay-at-home advisories that Oxford University rates according to stringency— can have an economic upside. The more the virus seems to be under control, the more eager people will be to participate in the economy.

For those who followed this thread along from the start you may remember me talking at nauseam about the economy not working when a large number of people sit out. This study is supporting that theory. I think many more studies will be needed and I caution anyone jumping to conclusions because the economy is driven by different segments of the economy in different regions (tourism vs manufacturing vs technology vs service companies, etc). It’s an interesting theory and an interesting read. I’m sure we will see many more similar studies going forward and the next phase will be to observe the impact on vaccination level on the economy going forward.

Using GDP is way too simplistic. For example, CA is home to many large tech companies which were well positioned to do well during a pandemic and had technical workarounds for lockdowns. TX has a large petroleum industry component and oil and gasoline prices collapsed last year. I paid $1.49 for gas last May in South Dakota. On the same road trip this year the cheapest I got anywhere was $2.64.

It will take a lot of deep dive analysis that takes many metrics into account to try and draw a conclusion.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Using GDP is way too simplistic. For example, CA is home to many large tech companies which were well positioned to do well during a pandemic and had technical workarounds for lockdowns. TX has a large petroleum industry component and oil and gasoline prices collapsed last year. I paid $1.49 for gas last May in South Dakota. On the same road trip this year the cheapest I got anywhere was $2.64.

It will take a lot of deep dive analysis that takes many metrics into account to try and draw a conclusion.
I agree and I said that in my follow up post. The makeup of the economy varies in each state and that’s a big factor for sure. I think at a minimum what this type of study does highlight is the overly simplistic view that “less covid mitigations always equals a better economy” was flawed from day 1. The best thing for the overall macro economy is and always was lower covid cases and lower community spread.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Another vaccine milestone....the majority of eligible Americans are now officially fully vaccinated 🥳🥳🥳🎉🎉🎉

B21B37A6-9C12-4224-BA79-BCC961C17C16.jpeg
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
On the Disney World front....some more small stuff coming back.
  • ‘Ohana and Sebastians at CBR have opening dates
  • Space 220 is hiring so an opening at some point in the next few months
  • rope drop is back
  • monorail capacity increased and standing is allowed again
  • possible return of parking trams soon
  • indoor play area at Dumbo reopening
I know it’s nothing Earth shattering (unless you love you some ‘Ohana 🥳) but it’s still a continuation of our return to normal at WDW. Baby steps 👍👍👍
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Register on WDWMAGIC. This sidebar will go away, and you'll see fewer ads.

Back
Top Bottom