Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Willmark]

What's the practical difference at this point between 1 and 2? Is 2 any less "originated naturally" than 1?

Like thermonuclear war there is no “oops”with viruses as we have (potentially) just learned.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

It’s a reasonable guess that the lab likely covered their tracts long before the local party apparatchiks were even aware there was an issue.

Doubtful we’re ever going to get the full story. China was not truthful during SARS. It’s a logical conclusion they aren’t being truthful of something of a higher order of magnitude.

That's basically what I'm saying in what you quoted.

 

[Willmark]

That's basically what I'm saying in what you quoted.

Yes I pulled that part because we are basically in agreement.

 

[RSoxNo1]

It seems he is becoming more of a politician. It's time for him to leave the spotlight. Hightest paid federal employee.

What is he doing that's political? He didn't politicize a global pandemic, he's just the nations go to person for explaining it.

As for changing his perspective on different items, thousands of pages ago in this thread someone posted the ladder of scientific information and at the bottom rung of that ladder was "Expert Opinion". As more information about this becomes available, scientists (including Fauci) change their perspective.

 

[corsairk09]

It's the verbiage and the implied meaning.

To pick on @SamusAranX

This post reads that "escaped from a lab" means it didn't "originated naturally". It's in effect saying that means it's not natural, which would imply that it's a man made. Other posts about "escaped from a lab" also tend to imply that it's a man made engineered virus. I don't think that's what was meant by this post, but that's how many of them read. That is down right conspiracy theory land.

We know:

• There's a lab there that studies this type of virus.
• Presumably, they acquired samples from the wild to study.
• We know the first cases originated near by.

So there's 3 possibilities:

1. A person was infected with the virus someplace nearby, perhaps the market, perhaps someplace else. Just random bad luck.
2. A person was infected with the virus while studying it in the lab. Some mistake in the procedures that are supposed to prevent this. Then spread it to someone else in public, perhaps at the market.
3. The government engineered the virus and some mistake exposed someone to it.
4. Just for extra credit, the government engineered the virus and deliberately exposed someone.

What's the practical difference at this point between 1 and 2? Is 2 any less "originated naturally" than 1?

While 3 and 4 are most definitely conspiracy theory land.

For anyone that thinks 2 just isn't possible, read up on lab accidents even in the US. People make mistakes. People try to coverup mistakes all the time, especially really big ones.

Ok to be fair.... I know very little about this. But..... just in general.... How is it 'conspiracy land' to think that a government engineered a virus? Isn't that like... a type of biological warfare?

Not saying that this is what happened.... but again.... how is it crazy to wonder if it were true?

 

[Incomudro]

This. Over and over. Does everyone take a headline and run with it anymore without actually reading the content? Sheesh. I get people here don’t like him for whatever reason but if your going to criticize someone get the truth first.

I don't dislike the man, and his credentials are excellent.
I do believe that he has a problem expressing himself to the general public though, and nearly any scientist working for the government is going to go through that filter first.

 

[TokyoMiki]

Fact is, we still don't know. Newer evidence is more supportive of the lab leak theory, but we still simply don't know.

Anyone with an ounce of inductive reasoning skills should be able to extrapolate and draw a safe conclusion based off of the last 30+ year "personality" of it.

Follow the source; follow the pattern; follow common sense and ultimately accept the extremely likelyhood.

 

[GimpYancIent]

Ok to be fair.... I know very little about this. But..... just in general.... How is it 'conspiracy land' to think that a government engineered a virus? Isn't that like... a type of biological warfare?

Not saying that this is what happened.... but again.... how is it crazy to wonder if it were true?

A lesson that generations of humans over the centuries have failed to properly comprehend or learn from and use research as the excuse (fooling with mother nature = bad results for the humans). Just saying.

 

[DCBaker]

Current Florida vaccine report - Florida has now crossed over the 8 million mark for vaccine series completion.

 

[GoofGoof]

We have officially reached the point where the majority of adults in America are fully vaccinated

We are about a million first doses away from crossing the 50% of the total population with 1 dose threshold. Another big milestone we could hit today but more likely tomorrow

 

[havoc315]

Anyone with an ounce of inductive reasoning skills should be able to extrapolate and draw a safe conclusion based off of the last 30+ year "personality" of it.

Follow the source; follow the pattern; follow common sense and ultimately accept the extremely likelyhood.

But that's just it -- There is no extreme likelihood in any direction.
Rare events are rare, but happen.
A lab leak would be extremely unlikely --- but not impossible.
A jump from an animal would be more likely -- But certainly not a certainty.

I defend medical malpractice cases for a living. Often, we see cases of something rare -- and because it is rare, there is an assumption that "someone must have been negligent."
But people do get struck by lightening. It does happen. Rare events do occur.

So yes --- lab leak would be extremely unlikely, but it's certainly possible.
A jump from an animal, in the same vicinity as a viral lab -- also extremely unlikely, but certainly possible as well.

A year ago, I thought the possibility of a lab leak was being overly dismissed by many. Today, I think many are going too far to the other extreme. I know many people hate this: But reality is we just don't know. We might yet find out, or we may never know.

 

[RobbinsDad]

But that's just it -- There is no extreme likelihood in any direction.
Rare events are rare, but happen.
A lab leak would be extremely unlikely --- but not impossible.
A jump from an animal would be more likely -- But certainly not a certainty.

I defend medical malpractice cases for a living. Often, we see cases of something rare -- and because it is rare, there is an assumption that "someone must have been negligent."
But people do get struck by lightening. It does happen. Rare events do occur.

So yes --- lab leak would be extremely unlikely, but it's certainly possible.
A jump from an animal, in the same vicinity as a viral lab -- also extremely unlikely, but certainly possible as well.

A year ago, I thought the possibility of a lab leak was being overly dismissed by many. Today, I think many are going too far to the other extreme. I know many people hate this: But reality is we just don't know. We might yet find out, or we may never know.

 

[TokyoMiki]

Often, we see cases of something rare -- and because it is rare,......

So you're saying often there is something rare.


Paint me confused.
(I know what you're saying--- just a slight piece of banter, all good)

 

[Heppenheimer]

So, back to another topic that has been tossed around quite a bit in this thread... what effect did the pandemic have on mental health?

The answer... it's complicated, but one surprise is that suicide rates may have actually declined from their baseline, at least early in the pandemic:

Suicide trends in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic: an interrupted time-series analysis of preliminary data from 21 countries

This is the first study to examine suicides occurring in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in multiple countries. In high-income and upper-middle-income countries, suicide numbers have remained largely unchanged or declined in the early months of the pandemic compared with the expected levels...

www.thelancet.com

As we start to move out of the pandemic and into the new Roaring 20s (I kind of hope that jazz makes a come back), the final analysis for suicide will be quite interesting.

(EDIT: The hyperlink goes to the study in the Lancet... not sure why its showing up like that).

 

[Animal_Kingdom_09]

I agree for public places in general but work is completely different. I see no viable way to have a passport system where I have to show proof of vaccination to shop at Target. However, it’s very easy for an employer to ask an at-will employee to show proof of vaccination to be exempt from wearing a mask. That’s much easier to regulate and enforce. Since people spend the bulk of the time where they are exposed to people outside of their immediate families at work that’s where you get the most bang for your buck anyway. It’s a much greater incentive for someone to want to get vaccinated so they don’t have to wear a mask for 8+ hours a day at work then it is to get out of wearing a mask while shopping at the supermarket or Target.

Goof - the reason employers are shying away from the bolded approach (above) is because if you require proof, then you have to make ADA accommodations for the employees who cannot get a vaccine for medical reasons. It is much easier to make it an honor system not enforced by the company, which does not require any accommodation.

 

[corsairk09]

So, back to another topic that has been tossed around quite a bit in this thread... what effect did the pandemic have on mental health?

The answer... it's complicated, but one surprise is that suicide rates may have actually declined from their baseline, at least early in the pandemic:

Suicide trends in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic: an interrupted time-series analysis of preliminary data from 21 countries

This is the first study to examine suicides occurring in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in multiple countries. In high-income and upper-middle-income countries, suicide numbers have remained largely unchanged or declined in the early months of the pandemic compared with the expected levels...

www.thelancet.com

As we start to move out of the pandemic and into the new Roaring 20s (I kind of hope that jazz makes a come back), the final analysis for suicide will be quite interesting.

(EDIT: The hyperlink goes to the study in the Lancet... not sure why its showing up like that).

It is interesting to see that suicides might have declined. What worries me is the increase in hospitalizations. This is just one resource that focuses on children needing emergency mental health care.

Mental Health–Related Emergency Department Visits Among ...

This report describes the proportion of children’s mental health-related emergency department visits among all pediatric emergency department visits.

www.cdc.gov

 

[Animal_Kingdom_09]

No worries. In most places the vaccination rate is high enough to prevent a spike.

Florida is about to be the test case for the vaccination theory. This time last year, we started our first big spike of cases, hospitalizations, and deaths as everyone headed indoors because of the summer heat. Here's hoping that our current decline continues!

 

[Chip Chipperson]

Goof - the reason employers are shying away from the bolded approach (above) is because if you require proof, then you have to make ADA accommodations for the employees who cannot get a vaccine for medical reasons. It is much easier to make it an honor system not enforced by the company, which does not require any accommodation.

1. I think the number of legitimate medical exclusions would be very small.
2. Businesses already have to make reasonable (that's the key word) medical accommodations for employees, so why would this be any different or more difficult?

 

[GoofGoof]

Goof - the reason employers are shying away from the bolded approach (above) is because if you require proof, then you have to make ADA accommodations for the employees who cannot get a vaccine for medical reasons. It is much easier to make it an honor system not enforced by the company, which does not require any accommodation.

The accommodation is they wear a mask. I’m not suggesting they require proof of vaccination to work just they require proof to show up at work without a mask. If you cannot get a vaccine for medical reasons then you would have to continue wearing a mask just like anyone else who isn’t vaccinated.

 

[GoofGoof]

1. I think the number of legitimate medical exclusions would be very small.
2. Businesses already have to make reasonable (that's the key word) medical accommodations for employees, so why would this be any different or more difficult?

And 2 may be applicable if you were requiring proof of vaccination to work. I say May because there are already jobs that require you be vaccinated and they are not stopped due to ADA. My wife had to get vaccine titers done to show she still had antibodies from childhood vaccines. They didn’t make an exception for medical or religious reasons. ADA requires reasonable accommodations but not if they would put the health or well being of others at risk.