Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[BrianLo]

Here’s your BC (Canada) update:

65% of adults now have dose 1. They are also now going to be bumping up dose 2, so instead of 4 months we’re looking more like 2 months it seems.

Example: I got Dose 1 on May 14th. My health gateway now says I am due for dose 2 by July 2nd (originally would have been September).

So yeah - the pace has really picked up here. I mean, Canada does now have more first doses in arms then the US.

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Hopefully a preview for the rest of the province - Island Health has hit 63.6%. Israel or bust!

 

[Disney Analyst]

Hopefully a preview for the rest of the province - Island Health has hit 63.6%. Israel or bust!

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Ooh where did you get the health region data like that?

 

[BrianLo]

Ooh where did you get the health region data like that?

My e-mail.

Unfortunately I don't work in Vancouver Coastal Health, so am not getting internal updates. It's why I've been bullish that Canada was seeing greater uptake than the US a few weeks back. Island Health has always been tracking 10% ahead, has had a bit earlier access in some areas due to geographic restrictions and seems to be a good barometer of overall interest.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

The accommodation is they wear a mask. I’m not suggesting they require proof of vaccination to work just they require proof to show up at work without a mask. If you cannot get a vaccine for medical reasons then you would have to continue wearing a mask just like anyone else who isn’t vaccinated.

Exactly what many businesses have implemented in Vegas, I have a couple friends at work who haven’t been vaccinated and I’ve been busting their chops that I don’t need to wear a mask anymore and they still do, all good natured fun of course.

I actually think mask use could be a bigger motivator than the lotteries or any other incentive states have come up with. it may be difficult for businesses to verify guests but it’s pretty simple to verify whether their employees have been vaccinated or not and require masks for everyone that hasn’t been, the idea of not having to wear a mask 40 hours a week at work could push a lot of fence sitters over the edge.

My company also gave us an extra paid day off and a free nights stay at the hotel for showing proof of vaccination, they’ve really pushed incentives for all of us to get it.

 

[seascape]

Today I am going to start with Florida. The good news is that the daily number of cases is doen to 2,433 or 11 per 100,000. They are getting close to the old magic number of 10. The last time that happened was in September when they never reached it and forced me to cancel my anniversary trip.

As for the US, we continue to make great strides and are now down to a daily average of 24,034 or 7.25 cases per 100,000. Only 7 states are at 11 or above but Colorado went up to 15. On the positive side 13 states are now 5 or less with another 8 at 6.

Getting back to Florida and their progress. Is today the day they fall and join the 10 or less group? It is possible as they have been reporting new cases under 2000 several days recently. Last Wednesday they reported 2,811 and yesterday they reported 1,874. Will Florida make it 4 out of the last 5 days under 2,000?

 

[drizgirl]

Yes, it does really matter.

Only if you prefer to avoid doing this again.

 

[DisneyCane]

You and Heppenheimer are both quite correct. No belligerent, regardless of tech / scientific knowhow, has been able to master control over releasing bio weapons in a manner the negative effects of it would not effect themselves. Bio agents do not take sides and are indiscriminant about who is impacted by their effects.

Very true. If you create a bioweapon out of a virus there is no way to make it not ever mutate so even if you vaccinate your own population, the possibility exists that a mutation occurs and you can't control it. Using antibiotic resistant bacteria has the same issue.

 

[DisneyCane]

Exactly what many businesses have implemented in Vegas, I have a couple friends at work who haven’t been vaccinated and I’ve been busting their chops that I don’t need to wear a mask anymore and they still do, all good natured fun of course.

I actually think mask use could be a bigger motivator than the lotteries or any other incentive states have come up with. it may be difficult for businesses to verify guests but it’s pretty simple to verify whether their employees have been vaccinated or not and require masks for everyone that hasn’t been, the idea of not having to wear a mask 40 hours a week at work could push a lot of fence sitters over the edge.

My company also gave us an extra paid day off and a free nights stay at the hotel for showing proof of vaccination, they’ve really pushed incentives for all of us to get it.

Have they dispensed with the pointless plexiglass at the tables yet out there?

 

[DisneyCane]

Here’s your BC (Canada) update:

65% of adults now have dose 1. They are also now going to be bumping up dose 2, so instead of 4 months we’re looking more like 2 months it seems.

Example: I got Dose 1 on May 14th. My health gateway now says I am due for dose 2 by July 2nd (originally would have been September).

So yeah - the pace has really picked up here. I mean, Canada does now have more first doses in arms then the US.

View attachment 560091

Which vaccine(s) are they using up there? I know the CDC came up with a max of 42 days between shots for Pfizer and Moderna so I was curious if Canada came to a different conclusion for the same vaccines. Where I got my Moderna shot, I heard them telling somebody that if the second shot wasn't within 42 days they would have to do the whole series again.

 

[DisneyCane]

I think it’s very possible. If not July 1 maybe shortly after. I’ve been on record as saying my guess is if we get to 70% of adults with 1 shot and we also get cases between 3 and 5 per 100,000 nationally by July 4 that the CDC and federal government will recommend just about all covid restrictions are dropped.

I'd actually be pretty surprised if we weren't down to under 5 per 100k nationally by July 4. I'd be equally surprised to get to 70% of adults vaccinated by then.

 

[DisneyCane]

Today I am going to start with Florida. The good news is that the daily number of cases is doen to 2,433 or 11 per 100,000. They are getting close to the old magic number of 10. The last time that happened was in September when they never reached it and forced me to cancel my anniversary trip.

As for the US, we continue to make great strides and are now down to a daily average of 24,034 or 7.25 cases per 100,000. Only 7 states are at 11 or above but Colorado went up to 15. On the positive side 13 states are now 5 or less with another 8 at 6.

Getting back to Florida and their progress. Is today the day they fall and join the 10 or less group? It is possible as they have been reporting new cases under 2000 several days recently. Last Wednesday they reported 2,811 and yesterday they reported 1,874. Will Florida make it 4 out of the last 5 days under 2,000?

One interesting observation is that South Dakota, with pretty much no mitigation and a middle of the road vaccination rate is one of the lowest in cases per 100k on a seven day rolling average at 4.13. Texas and Georgia are also below average in cases per 100k with not so great vaccination rates and not much mitigation.

There appear to be a lot more variables than we are considering or a lot more people in certain states have natural immunity than we realize.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Only if you prefer to avoid doing this again.

Re-establishing the National Security Council Directorate for Biodefense is another step forward in preventing this again.

 

[DisneyCane]

Re-establishing the National Security Council Directorate for Biodefense is another step forward in preventing this again.

Possibly but I would assume many other countries did have something similar and it wasn't prevented from happening anywhere.

 

[drizgirl]

Re-establishing the National Security Council Directorate for Biodefense is another step forward in preventing this again.

With something this big, I would expect an "all of the above" approach. Knowing how this one started seems like a critical piece of the equation.

 

[GoofGoof]

I'd actually be pretty surprised if we weren't down to under 5 per 100k nationally by July 4. I'd be equally surprised to get to 70% of adults vaccinated by then.

Don’t be so sure on the vaccines. We have 44 days to go and about 21M adults to go to get to 70%. That’s a pace of about 475K doses a day. We are currently averaging over 500K new adult first doses a day but that pace needs to continue if we want to hit the target. I think we will come close, but even if we come up short we will hit 70% within a few weeks after so really not a big deal.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Possibly but I would assume many other countries did have something similar and it wasn't prevented from happening anywhere.

But other countries can't match the resources that the US can bring to the table, nor assume a comparable leadership role in these matters if we again decide to disengage from the world stage.

Only a trully united EU might be able to take on a similar role, but world leadership positions like this seems to go beyond the limits of their poitical will.

 

[Patcheslee]

F

Exactly what many businesses have implemented in Vegas, I have a couple friends at work who haven’t been vaccinated and I’ve been busting their chops that I don’t need to wear a mask anymore and they still do, all good natured fun of course.

I actually think mask use could be a bigger motivator than the lotteries or any other incentive states have come up with. it may be difficult for businesses to verify guests but it’s pretty simple to verify whether their employees have been vaccinated or not and require masks for everyone that hasn’t been, the idea of not having to wear a mask 40 hours a week at work could push a lot of fence sitters over the edge.

My company also gave us an extra paid day off and a free nights stay at the hotel for showing proof of vaccination, they’ve really pushed incentives for all of us to get it.

We have a meeting at work today about their plan to verify who can work without a mask. Considering alot of people are complaining about it already is just gah. i.e. "that's not fair" (everyone has equal access, and choice) "why should I have to wear one if others are vaccinated? It won't effect them" (an unvaccinated employee that is exposed to a confirmed case must take off the 14 days, who do you think will have to do the job while that person is off...) "if I have to wear one everyone should" (at the same time why not mandatory vaccination if you want an all or nothing approach)
I'll report later how well the meeting goes, I've been hearing the complaining just since they announced plans last week.

 

[DisneyCane]

Don’t be so sure on the vaccines. We have 44 days to go and about 21M adults to go to get to 70%. That’s a pace of about 475K doses a day. We are currently averaging over 500K new adult first doses a day but that pace needs to continue if we want to hit the target. I think we will come close, but even if we come up short we will hit 70% within a few weeks after so really not a big deal.

Hopefully I'll be surprised then. I'm just pessimistic about maintaining the pace of first doses.

 

[GoofGoof]

F

We have a meeting at work today about their plan to verify who can work without a mask. Considering alot of people are complaining about it already is just gah. i.e. "that's not fair" (everyone has equal access, and choice) "why should I have to wear one if others are vaccinated? It won't effect them" (an unvaccinated employee that is exposed to a confirmed case must take off the 14 days, who do you think will have to do the job while that person is off...) "if I have to wear one everyone should" (at the same time why not mandatory vaccination if you want an all or nothing approach)
I'll report later how well the meeting goes, I've been hearing the complaining just since they announced plans last week.

I hope they stick to the plan and those people complaining just suck it up and get the vaccine. It’s free, it’s about as convenient as you could make a vaccine these days and it’s exceptionally safe with incredibly rare serious side effects. As we talked about earlier it may be short lived if the country drops masks everywhere sooner than later but it would be great if that type of policy gets extra people vaccinated.

 

[GoofGoof]

Hopefully I'll be surprised then. I'm just pessimistic about maintaining the pace of first doses.

I think the pace will drop off some, but using the law of averages if we stay over the pace needed for a few more weeks then even if we fall below for the last few weeks it still averages to a high enough number. At the end of the day if we hit 70% 2 or 3 weeks later or if we are at 68% instead of 70% it’s still good news.