Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

1. I think the number of legitimate medical exclusions would be very small.
2. Businesses already have to make reasonable (that's the key word) medical accommodations for employees, so why would this be any different or more difficult?

And 2 may be applicable if you were requiring proof of vaccination to work. I say May because there are already jobs that require you be vaccinated and they are not stopped due to ADA. My wife had to get vaccine titers done to show she still had antibodies from childhood vaccines. They didn’t make an exception for medical or religious reasons. ADA requires reasonable accommodations but not if they would put the health or well being of others at risk.

 

[Tom P.]

I think, ultimately, what we're debating and discussing at great length here is something that will be extremely short lived. I think you will see most places drop all mask requirements, both indoors and outdoors, vaccinated and unvaccinated, no later than July 1st. And I think we will see the same for Walt Disney World no later than October 1st, and possibly much sooner.

 

[havoc315]

So you're saying often there is something rare.


Paint me confused.
(I know what you're saying--- just a slight piece of banter, all good)

Exactly what I'm saying. If 1 out of 1 million people will develop a condition (for example).... So it's very rare.... but there would still be 330 cases of it in the US.

I deal with it all the time professionally. Rare events occur. With 7 billion people in the world, 330 million Americans.... 20 million people living in my state, 1 million people living in my county -- rare events occur all the freaking time!

 

[mmascari]

Ok to be fair.... I know very little about this. But..... just in general.... How is it 'conspiracy land' to think that a government engineered a virus? Isn't that like... a type of biological warfare?

Not saying that this is what happened.... but again.... how is it crazy to wonder if it were true?

At this point, with this much time, if that's what was going on and the intelligence agencies still didn't know that's what was going on, it would be a failure of national security. So, to assume it's possible, we have to assume they know too and it's kept secret (keeping secrets is certainly possible). Which then means, either we just ignored it, or didn't think it was worth taking any actions for an escaped biological warfare, also a national security failure to react then. So, no we're keeping two secrets and the audience is larger, that knew it was government developed and we're not bothering to act. With that larger audience, someone in the know is likely to view that combination as "not good" and leak it. Which leaves us with either our national security apparatus isn't very good and completely missed an adversarial development or that it's a huge cover up with nobody leaking the secret when no actions are taken. Perhaps a third option, that the security agencies know it but are not sharing with the government policy makers.

Any of those options are what puts it in conspiracy land.

For it to be a government engineered a virus, we need to accept that our spy agencies are so stupid they had no idea it was going on at all or that we decided to take no actions at all even when we knew it and then kept that lack of action secret at all levels that would know.

That's what give me confidence that while it may certainly be an accident, it probably wasn't a developed virus. Accidents happen. Sometimes very bad ones.

 

[Incomudro]

A lesson that generations of humans over the centuries have failed to properly comprehend or learn from and use research as the excuse (fooling with mother nature = bad results for the humans). Just saying.

History shows again and again how nature points out the folly of mannn... Godzilla!

 

[Heppenheimer]

At this point, with this much time, if that's what was going on and the intelligence agencies still didn't know that's what was going on, it would be a failure of national security. So, to assume it's possible, we have to assume they know too and it's kept secret (keeping secrets is certainly possible). Which then means, either we just ignored it, or didn't think it was worth taking any actions for an escaped biological warfare, also a national security failure to react then. So, no we're keeping two secrets and the audience is larger, that knew it was government developed and we're not bothering to act. With that larger audience, someone in the know is likely to view that combination as "not good" and leak it. Which leaves us with either our national security apparatus isn't very good and completely missed an adversarial development or that it's a huge cover up with nobody leaking the secret when no actions are taken. Perhaps a third option, that the security agencies know it but are not sharing with the government policy makers.

Any of those options are what puts it in conspiracy land.

For it to be a government engineered a virus, we need to accept that our spy agencies are so stupid they had no idea it was going on at all or that we decided to take no actions at all even when we knew it and then kept that lack of action secret at all levels that would know.

That's what give me confidence that while it may certainly be an accident, it probably wasn't a developed virus. Accidents happen. Sometimes very bad ones.

There's a reason most of the great powers have signed treaties banning chemical and biological weapons and it has little to do with morality- they're nearly useless for a conventional military. The collateral damages to one's own side are too high and the harm they can inflict on an enemy, particularly a well trained enemy, is too inconsistent to offer much gain for one side. They're really only useful as terror weapons against civilians

 

[DisneyFan32]

Dang. Those kids under 12 will still wear masks in schools this fall. Maybe this will be change if they decide not to use masks anymore by fall if the cases are low enough by then.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

History shows again and again how nature points out the folly of mannn... Godzilla!

Don’t know your age but I’m hoping you had a chance to see one of the greatest tours ever.. The Black and Blue tour. Sabbath and cult. You just brought back some good memories, thank you!

 

[Incomudro]

Don’t know your age but I’m hoping you had a chance to see one of the greatest tours ever.. The Black and Blue tour. Sabbath and cult. You just brought back some good memories, thank you!

I'm 57, I was of age - but didn't get to see the tour.
I did catch a movie of the Black and Blue tour in a theater once.

 

[GoofGoof]

I think, ultimately, what we're debating and discussing at great length here is something that will be extremely short lived. I think you will see most places drop all mask requirements, both indoors and outdoors, vaccinated and unvaccinated, no later than July 1st. And I think we will see the same for Walt Disney World no later than October 1st, and possibly much sooner.

I think it’s very possible. If not July 1 maybe shortly after. I’ve been on record as saying my guess is if we get to 70% of adults with 1 shot and we also get cases between 3 and 5 per 100,000 nationally by July 4 that the CDC and federal government will recommend just about all covid restrictions are dropped.

 

[GoofGoof]

Dang. Those kids under 12 will still wear masks in schools this fall. Maybe this will be change if they decide not to use masks anymore by fall if the cases are low enough by then.

Masks could be back for schools below the high school level due to the lack of vaccination approval by Fall. It’s possible cases are so low that they aren’t required and it’s also possible they are dropped within a month or 2 of vaccine approval.

 

[DCBaker]

 

[DCBaker]

 

[TokyoMiki]

History shows again and again how nature points out the folly of mannn... Godzilla!

It would have been more fitting if I had said it considering stage names around here and all that. Oh well, late again.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Does it really matter? COVID19 is here, how it came in to being will be a point of argument for a long time to come. What I see as important, motivating and relevant is the coming together (as the Marines would say "Improvise, Adapt and Overcome") of so many to counter the illness. Dr. F has become simply a talking head.

If SARS-CoV-2 did escape from a lab then it casts serious doubt on the benefits of gain of function experiments, having caused a pandemic instead of preventing one.

I don't think it was a flip flop either, but overall, for most of the pandemic it's been the consensus that the pandemic originated naturally. Now we have different suspicions. Which is ironic, because if you subscribed to said theories a year ago you were considered a conspiracy nutjob.

A lot of that earlier dismissal did focus on a wholly designed virus, often one intended as a weapon. An experiment gone bad was often just sort of ignored.

You can't automatically assume that "originating in nature" means that the wet market theory is correct. Originating in nature simply means that it was not a man-made virus...it occurred naturally.

The important thing we need to focus on is HOW the virus made the leap from animals to humans. Was it being studied in the lab and there was an accidental escape? OR did it somehow make it into the wet market via one animal and make the jump there via an intermediary animal?

Even further...it could have escaped the lab via an accident and wound up at the wet market.

One of the concerns surrounding the jump being made via an intermediary animal is that the intermediary animal hasn't been found. With MERS and SARS, one intermediary animal was found in one month and the other in either 3 or 4 months. If the wet market was the source, we still haven't found that intermediary animal yet.

It's the verbiage and the implied meaning.

To pick on @SamusAranX

This post reads that "escaped from a lab" means it didn't "originated naturally". It's in effect saying that means it's not natural, which would imply that it's a man made. Other posts about "escaped from a lab" also tend to imply that it's a man made engineered virus. I don't think that's what was meant by this post, but that's how many of them read. That is down right conspiracy theory land.

We know:

• There's a lab there that studies this type of virus.
• Presumably, they acquired samples from the wild to study.
• We know the first cases originated near by.

So there's 3 possibilities:

1. A person was infected with the virus someplace nearby, perhaps the market, perhaps someplace else. Just random bad luck.
2. A person was infected with the virus while studying it in the lab. Some mistake in the procedures that are supposed to prevent this. Then spread it to someone else in public, perhaps at the market.
3. The government engineered the virus and some mistake exposed someone to it.
4. Just for extra credit, the government engineered the virus and deliberately exposed someone.

What's the practical difference at this point between 1 and 2? Is 2 any less "originated naturally" than 1?

While 3 and 4 are most definitely conspiracy theory land.

For anyone that thinks 2 just isn't possible, read up on lab accidents even in the US. People make mistakes. People try to coverup mistakes all the time, especially really big ones.

You both seem to skip over that studying coronavirus involved trying to get them to infect human cell cultures.

What is he doing that's political? He didn't politicize a global pandemic, he's just the nations go to person for explaining it.

As for changing his perspective on different items, thousands of pages ago in this thread someone posted the ladder of scientific information and at the bottom rung of that ladder was "Expert Opinion". As more information about this becomes available, scientists (including Fauci) change their perspective.

Fauci has a conflict of interest regarding the lab leak hypothesis. If that does turn out to be the origin of SARS-CoV-2 then it as likely the result of US funded research advocated by Fauci and many others.

A lab leak would be extremely unlikely --- but not impossible.

Except that the coronavirus in Wuhan we’re not being studied under the strictest of protocols and leaks happen with far greater frequency than is widely discussed.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

If SARS-CoV-2 did escape from a lab then it casts serious doubt on the benefits of gain of function experiments, having caused a pandemic instead of preventing one.


A lot of that earlier dismissal did focus on a wholly designed virus, often one intended as a weapon. An experiment gone bad was often just sort of ignored.




You both seem to skip over that studying coronavirus involved trying to get them to infect human cell cultures.

Fauci has a conflict of interest regarding the lab leak hypothesis. If that does turn out to be the origin of SARS-CoV-2 then it as likely the result of US funded research advocated by Fauci and many others.

Except that the coronavirus in Wuhan we’re not being studied under the strictest of protocols and leaks happen with far greater frequency than is widely discussed.

I wasn't really skipping over anything...an accidental "escape" from a lab could mean any number of things.

 

[Disney Experience]

Exactly what I'm saying. If 1 out of 1 million people will develop a condition (for example).... So it's very rare.... but there would still be 330 cases of it in the US.

I deal with it all the time professionally. Rare events occur. With 7 billion people in the world, 330 million Americans.... 20 million people living in my state, 1 million people living in my county -- rare events occur all the freaking time!

I agree it is hard for all of us to properly quantify large (or very small) numbers.

A Small Problem With Big Numbers

The human mind is exceptionally bad at interpreting large numbers. Let me show you exactly how bad — with a deck of cards.

towardsdatascience.com

 

[Disney Experience]

There's a reason most of the great powers have signed treaties banning chemical and biological weapons and it has little to do with morality- they're nearly useless for a conventional military. The collateral damages to one's own side are too high and the harm they can inflict on an enemy, particularly a well trained enemy, is too inconsistent to offer much gain for one side. They're really only useful as terror weapons against civilians

I always considered biological weapons very asymmetrical and therefore tempting to smaller powers if they can gain the capability (or it is given to them). I also think it is something major powers should always be vigilant about and react to actual offensive biological work strongly (i.e. nip it in the bud). Sadly countries(In USA an example is BARDA which wisely helped fund Moderna) do need to do some defensive work (that could be used offensively if the knowledge is shared). As the world learns to manipulate biology as easily as computer code is manipulated (We are not there yet) then the risks for bad results increases significantly.

Treaties are not always obeyed (See the old Soviet Union as an example)

Soviet biological weapons program - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Knowledge is a two-edge sword, and in the present world knowledge can be shared with anyone very easily, which is not always a good thing.

 

[GimpYancIent]

I always considered biological weapons very asymmetrical and therefore tempting to smaller powers if they can gain the capability (or it is given to them). I also think it is something major powers should always be vigilant about and react to actual offensive biological work strongly (i.e. nip it in the bud). Sadly countries(In USA an example is BARDA which wisely helped fund Moderna) do need to do some defensive work (that could be used offensively if the knowledge is shared). As the world learns to manipulate biology as easily as computer code is manipulated (We are not there yet) then the risks for bad results increases significantly.

Treaties are not always obeyed (See the old Soviet Union as an example)

Soviet biological weapons program - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Knowledge is a two-edge sword, and in the present world knowledge can be shared with anyone very easily, which is not always a good thing.

You and Heppenheimer are both quite correct. No belligerent, regardless of tech / scientific knowhow, has been able to master control over releasing bio weapons in a manner the negative effects of it would not effect themselves. Bio agents do not take sides and are indiscriminant about who is impacted by their effects.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Here’s your BC (Canada) update:

65% of adults now have dose 1. They are also now going to be bumping up dose 2, so instead of 4 months we’re looking more like 2 months it seems.

Example: I got Dose 1 on May 14th. My health gateway now says I am due for dose 2 by July 2nd (originally would have been September).

So yeah - the pace has really picked up here. I mean, Canada does now have more first doses in arms then the US.