Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[havoc315]

Dumb luck? That’s your explanation?

I assume Michigan in March was just bad luck?

That's not what I said.
My exact words:

"So much of the disease is seasonal, some of it is dumb luck." and "There are MANY factors that affect the disease spread."

Yes, some of it is "dumb luck" -- Or simply factors outside of anyone's control. Introduction of a new more infectious variant is partially a luck factor. Whether you have travelers coming into the state carrying infection or not, partially a luck factor.
And as I said, it's largely seasonal differences. Cases drop everywhere in Spring, we saw that last year, we are seeing it again now. Cases are dropping the fastest in places with mitigation + high vaccination rates.

Now I'll ask you, how do you explain why Texas is doing so much worse than California? On a per capita basis, Texas still has much higher hospitalization rates, higher case cases, much higher positivity rate....
On a per capita basis, Texas has about quadruple the ICU rate of California..

 

[havoc315]

Which really doesn't mean anything. They're doing that because that's where we're at now. If the situation changes, they'll change too. I guarantee you Disney would prefer to not have any mitigation measures in place for the 50th and will pull them back if they can.

I agree it doesn't mean that they WILL have masks in October. But it's clear they aren't going to let "PR" be the driving force. They aren't afraid of ruining promotional materials. And they are very clearly sending a message that you should still expect masks. There may be a "pleasant surprise" and masking lifted (which I think is very very possible).

 

[nyrebel3]

I hope it lasts. So far so good. The vaccination percentage is not great and TX has some of the largest urban centers in the country with population density. If a variant takes hold there we could see a spike similar to Michigan recently. Hopefully they ramp up vaccinations before that happens.

While you try to be non-partisan, these types of comments frustrates me. Instead of trying to figure out what TX is doing right, the implied thought is "Those stupid Neanderthals don't know what they are doing and a plague of biblical proportions is right around the corner. The current results in TX is just blind luck." This is the difference in a glass half-full and half-empty approach.

 

[GoofGoof]

It isn't really a question of the state itself ramping up. The vaccine is widely available. For example, all CVS pharmacies in the state are allowing walk-ins. There is availability at doctor offices. Schools are partnering with hospitals and clinics. For the urban areas you speak of, it really hasn't been more convenient than it is today. It boils down to people taking this opportunity and getting the shot. The state has been involved in some PR and marketing efforts to get the message out. We will get there...40% with at least one dose. Not the best state, but not horrible..especially given how diverse the population is.

I agree. It‘s just a race against the variants. We got hit with a surge recently in PA when the UK variant ramped up. We didn’t have enough people vaccinated to avoid it, similar to MI and NY/NJ. I believe the surge was shorter lived due to the level vaccinated and the fact that the vaccines are highly effective vs that variant. I think every level of government needs to do a better job promoting the vaccine and pushing it. Making it available isn’t enough anymore. Crossing the 50% threshold seemed to be about where the biggest impact started to be seen.

 

[Tom P.]

I agree it doesn't mean that they WILL have masks in October. But it's clear they aren't going to let "PR" be the driving force. They aren't afraid of ruining promotional materials. And they are very clearly sending a message that you should still expect masks. There may be a "pleasant surprise" and masking lifted (which I think is very very possible).

I agree. The messaging will be much easier for Disney if they can happily announce the lessening of measures than if they set expectations now for no masks and then have to go back and tell people to mask up. And I'm sure they don't want a bunch of bookings now that get cancelled later if people find they have to wear a mask.

 

[drizgirl]

They've already been putting masks in all the promotional material.

They sort of have to right now.

 

[Tom P.]

I agree. It‘s just a race against the variants. We got hit with a surge recently in PA when the UK variant ramped up. We didn’t have enough people vaccinated to avoid it, similar to MI and NY/NJ. I believe the surge was shorter lived due to the level vaccinated and the fact that the vaccines are highly effective vs that variant. I think every level of government needs to do a better job promoting the vaccine and pushing it. Making it available isn’t enough anymore. Crossing the 50% threshold seemed to be about where the biggest impact started to be seen.

Keep in mind that, so far, the vaccines have been effective against all of the variants that have popped up. It is certainly possible that the virus mutates into a variant that isn't controlled by the vaccine. But it's also possible that even if we continue to have variants, the vaccine will work just fine against them. Variants rendering vaccines ineffective isn't a guarantee, even if we don't get the percentage of vaccinations we would like.

 

[havoc315]

I agree. The messaging will be much easier for Disney if they can happily announce the lessening of measures than if they set expectations now for no masks and then have to go back and tell people to mask up. And I'm sure they don't want a bunch of bookings now that get cancelled later if people find they have to wear a mask.

I basically agree. But I also read it as Disney thinking there is a good chance (like 25%+) that masks will still be required in October. If they were very confident masks would be gone, then they would make the promotional material more vague. The fact that they are including masks in the promotional material suggests they think there is a good chance that masking will still be in place.

Personally, I'd be shocked if they are still masking outdoors in October. But it's certainly possible.

 

[GoofGoof]

While you try to be non-partisan, these types of comments frustrates me. Instead of trying to figure out what TX is doing right, the implied thought is "Those stupid Neanderthals don't know what they are doing and a plague of biblical proportions is right around the corner. The current results in TX is just blind luck." This is the difference in a glass half-full and half-empty approach.

When did I say any of that? The percent vaccinated is a known stat. TX is 36 out of 50 states.

 

[Tom P.]

I basically agree. But I also read it as Disney thinking there is a good chance (like 25%+) that masks will still be required in October. If they were very confident masks would be gone, then they would make the promotional material more vague. The fact that they are including masks in the promotional material suggests they think there is a good chance that masking will still be in place.

Personally, I'd be shocked if they are still masking outdoors in October. But it's certainly possible.

Personally, I'd be shocked if they are still masking *indoors* in October. But we just really don't know yet. And Disney is going to be conservative in their messaging.

 

[havoc315]

Israel's 7-day rolling average is now 49 cases per day.
Israel is the same size as New Jersey. New Jersey is doing "well" with "only" 1126 cases per day.

Israel is the model of where we can get to with diligence. That would be about 1,600 cases per day nationwide. We can get there with more vaccination and patience with masking a bit longer. (sadly, many have already given up on it).

 

[GoofGoof]

Keep in mind that, so far, the vaccines have been effective against all of the variants that have popped up. It is certainly possible that the virus mutates into a variant that isn't controlled by the vaccine. But it's also possible that even if we continue to have variants, the vaccine will work just fine against them. Variants rendering vaccines ineffective isn't a guarantee, even if we don't get the percentage of vaccinations we would like.

You are preaching to the choir. I 100% agree. The key to remember is the most common variant right now in the US and the world, the UK variant, is not a problem for the vaccines. Without the vaccines that variant is much more contagious and possibly more deadly (mixed reports on that).

 

[Chi84]

Disney is absolutely gauging their guests' opinions on continued COVID protocols. The survey I received about our stay at SSR asked several questions like whether their current health and safety protocols are "Too little, just right, or too much." They also asked whether CMs and other guests being required to follow the protocols made us feel more comfortable or had no impact. Those questions popped up in connection with dining, using the amenities, etc.

 

[havoc315]

Personally, I'd be shocked if they are still masking *indoors* in October. But we just really don't know yet. And Disney is going to be conservative in their messaging.

I wouldn't be surprised to see masking continue indoors. Disney is protective of their "family friendly" reputation and younger children won't be vaccinated until next year.
Certainly, if cases are under 500 per day nationwide by October, I could see all indoor masking gone everywhere. (Israel is now at 49 cases per day, less than 1 death per day, and they are continuing indoor masking). But I fear we may see mini spikes again by October. Nothing like October 2020, but mini spikes in locations with low vaccination rates. May be enough to continue indoor masking at places like WDW.

 

[GoofGoof]

So what’s the explanation though?

The explanation for what? Why cases go up and down? We still doing the gotcha game after 12+ months?

The most recent surges we have seen were driven by variants, particularly the UK variant. The states with surges all had the highest percent of that variant. These surges in the NE were short lived due to the number of people vaccinated. If states and regions can get a high enough percent vaccinated before the variants arrive in full force the surge can be avoided altogether. So, yes I’m happy to see cases down anywhere but I cringe when I see people taking a victory lap (like the prime minister in India did recently or the Governor of FL did last May). I cross my fingers and hope that new surges don’t pop up but it would be better to see higher vaccination rates. The vaccine works better than wishes and hopes.

 

[bryanfze55]

Exactly. Fighting just to fight.

The science hasn’t changed. The vaccines are highly effective. Masks are also effective. Elderly and people with pre-existing conditions are at much higher risk for severe outcome if infected. It is possible to have a breakthrough infection even if vaccinated and that possibility decreases every day as more people get vaccinated. So if an elderly person who is at high risk (like my mother or Joe Biden) chooses to wear a mask outdoors and in public even after being vaccinated to be extra careful that’s not being anti-science or anti-vax it’s being cautious until community spread comes down more.

The CDC sets guidelines that are based on science. There’s a difference between public policy and pure science. The science says there’s a remote risk of breakthrough infection even after being fully vaccinated. Public policy says that despite that risk it’s ok to get together because we can’t wait until the risk is zero to change policy. So because the policy says it’s ok to not wear a mask outdoors when fully vaccinated that doesn’t mean there’s no risk or that people should have to take their mask off.

I think it’s important to note that, even though there is risk of a rare breakthrough case when vaccinated, the vaccine is nearly 100% effective at mitigating death and/or severe disease (hospitalization). And ultimately, that’s what we want to prevent. The virus will likely continue to circulate, but the purpose of the vaccine is to reduce potential damage. I’m perfectly fine with vaccinated people wearing a mask outdoors indefinitely, but I think there should be an understanding that the risk level of severe illness is nearly nonexistent.

 

[Tom P.]

I wouldn't be surprised to see masking continue indoors. Disney is protective of their "family friendly" reputation and younger children won't be vaccinated until next year.
Certainly, if cases are under 500 per day nationwide by October, I could see all indoor masking gone everywhere. (Israel is now at 49 cases per day, less than 1 death per day, and they are continuing indoor masking). But I fear we may see mini spikes again by October. Nothing like October 2020, but mini spikes in locations with low vaccination rates. May be enough to continue indoor masking at places like WDW.

I see what you are saying. And I understand Disney will be conservative. But with us reaching the point where even public health experts like Dr. Fauci and Scott Gottlieb are saying that we are approaching the point where indoor mask mandates should start going away, I just am confident that the situation by October is going to be dramatically different than it is today. I've said many times in this thread that I remain an optimist. Even though vaccination rates have slowed, I believe we're ultimately going to do a good job getting people vaccinated, and I believe that over the next few weeks we're going to see case and death numbers plummet. I am confident that we will avoid significant spikes again in the fall.

That is all based on my gut feeling and my optimism. I could be totally wrong. But that's what I think as of today.

 

[GoofGoof]

I think it’s important to note that, even though there is risk of a rare breakthrough case when vaccinated, the vaccine is nearly 100% effective at mitigating death and/or severe disease (hospitalization). And ultimately, that’s what we want to prevent. The virus will likely continue to circulate, but the purpose of the vaccine is to reduce potential damage. I’m perfectly fine with vaccinated people wearing a mask outdoors indefinitely, but I think there should be an understanding that the risk level of severe illness is nearly nonexistent.

I agree. It’s very low risk and community spread is dropping every day so getting lower. The less people spreading the virus the less chance of breakthrough infection too.

 

[Flugell]

Again my perspective is probably skewed as I’m from the U.K. so please don’t jump down my throat!
There has been a lot of talk about vaccine hesitancy so I feel that people are looking for reasons to persuade/ encourage the ones who are not fundamentally against the vaccine to get on with it!

Well, maybe if there was a known date to the end of the free vaccine?
The government/ state (not certain how it works in the USA) announced everyone over the age of 16 has now had 3 (pick a number) months to have a free vaccine so in 28 days this will no longer be available and people wishing to have a vaccine after this point will be charged. (Pick an amount.)
If you have booked or received your first dose by this point all future vaccines, including future boosters will be administered free of charge.

Also if there was a medical condition, verified by a medical doctor, preventing you being vaccinated during the “free” window, no charge will be made and all future vaccine boosters will again be administered at no cost. Under 16 will continue to have free vaccines for the foreseeable future. People attaining the age of 16?, who become eligible to make their own decisions, will have 2 months after their birthday to join the free vaccination group.

No idea if this would help, or even be possible but it may encourage the “I’ll get round to it eventually” group.

Thoughts? Please be gentle though!

 

[GoofGoof]

I see what you are saying. And I understand Disney will be conservative. But with us reaching the point where even public health experts like Dr. Fauci and Scott Gottlieb are saying that we are approaching the point where indoor mask mandates should start going away, I just am confident that the situation by October is going to be dramatically different than it is today. I've said many times in this thread that I remain an optimist. Even though vaccination rates have slowed, I believe we're ultimately going to do a good job getting people vaccinated, and I believe that over the next few weeks we're going to see case and death numbers plummet. I am confident that we will avoid significant spikes again in the fall.

That is all based on my gut feeling and my optimism. I could be totally wrong. But that's what I think as of today.

I think you are spot on....I also have the same gut feeling so it could be wishful thinking.

I think we have hit an inflection point on vaccinations nationally and we will see the drop continue and increase. There’s some risk of more regional surges, especially in places with low vaccination rates and also lower natural immunity, but hopefully short lived and offset by large population centers hitting high levels of immunity. As I said a few pages back, WDW is focused on the national picture, but a large portion of their customer base is the NE corridor and once those states relax restrictions (all but indoor masks in May and indoor masks to follow shortly after) those guests will join with the guests from the SE states that already have little or no restrictions in wanting the restrictions lifted. I think that has a big influence on Disney policy. That and CA relaxing more restrictions in June.