Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

That is certainly part of it. We have 30% seroprevalence here. But I still think it likely isn’t quite enough. Time will tell!

The part that’s difficult to tell is how many overlap with vaccinated people. So for example the best possible scenario is that Alabama has 30% of the population naturally immune and 33% of the population with at least 1 shot and there is no overlap so 63% of the population is ”immune”. I put it in quotes because technically neither natural infection or vaccination results in 100% of the people immune. 63% could be enough to keep infection trending down. The reality is that there’s definitely some overlap of people who were both naturally infected and also got the vaccine. That reduces the percentage. If we assume a 50/50 split then the percent of people naturally immune and not vaccinated drops to 15% and the total combined “immune drops to 48%. I don’t know if that’s enough to get it done long term. Probably not. When more than half the population is vulnerable to infection an outbreak is likely to happen at some point.

 

[SamusAranX]

The only way I can get tested in my area over a weekend is at the ER, and that seemed too excessive. If I had felt those symptoms during the work week, I would have definitely called out from work and gotten tested.

I'm pretty sure it was COVID, simply because of our protocols at work, I haven't been exposed to anything else suspicious lately.

You sure it wasn't....

 

[lazyboy97o]

You’d think the reports of “performance” issues would be enough to convince young men not to take a chance.

 

[GoofGoof]

Nationally our 7 day daily average of cases per 100K has dropped to under 13. The daily average has dropped over 40% in the last 4 weeks. We still have a ways to go, but we are starting to see the power of the vaccines. The end is near. Just keep encouraging people to get vaccinated and we will all get back to normal this Summer.

 

[Heppenheimer]

You sure it wasn't....

View attachment 555932

If it was, I would raid a beehive to get my treatment via placebo.

 

[DisneyFan32]

Nationally our 7 day daily average of cases per 100K has dropped to under 13. The daily average has dropped over 40% in the last 4 weeks. We still have a ways to go, but we are starting to see the power of the vaccines. The end is near. Just keep encouraging people to get vaccinated and we will all get back to normal this Summer.

Almost there folks, masks will may be removed by August or September (If you live in NJ, CT, PA, MA and NY)

 

[GoofGoof]

Almost there folks, masks will may be removed by August or September (If you live in NJ, CT, PA, MA and NY)

I don’t make the rules, but I see no reason why that won’t be the case

If we get to 70% of adults with at least 1 shot by July 4th (the new National target) we should be in great shape. To keep it in perspective we are at 57.7% of adults with 1 shot right now. We have 57 days until July 4th. We need about 26M more adults to go. That’s a pace of around 450,000 new doses a day. This week we still averaged over 700K new first doses a day. It’s a slower pace, but that was the plan all along. We are in the phase where we are pulling people in.

Recent polling shows we have another 9% of adults who still say they will get the vaccine soon. 15% are still in the wait and see category. Not sure what they are waiting for at this point, but if we get even 1 in 3 to come off the fence that gets us over 70%. That’s why I’m particularly optimistic we reach that target. In addition we will soon have teens 12-15 eligible so more potential spreaders getting vaccinated. Every little bit helps.

 

[Stitch826]

Not Disney, but heard on the news that Broadway shows in NY are planning to open at full capacity in September. Considering they are indoors, should be a sign of great things to come for Disney. (Eliminate social distancing, resume parades/fireworks, remove plexiglass, etc????)

 

[WondersOfLife]

The poster has already explained that they are on immunosuppressing meds, so other people being vaccinated is very important to the poster health.

Gotcha. I’m not shifting through the pages to find it so I’ll take your word.

 

[DisneyFan32]

I don’t make the rules, but I see no reason why that won’t be the case

If we get to 70% of adults with at least 1 shot by July 4th (the new National target) we should be in great shape. To keep it in perspective we are at 57.7% of adults with 1 shot right now. We have 57 days until July 4th. We need about 26M more adults to go. That’s a pace of around 450,000 new doses a day. This week we still averaged over 700K new first doses a day. It’s a slower pace, but that was the plan all along. We are in the phase where we are pulling people in.

Recent polling shows we have another 9% of adults who still say they will get the vaccine soon. 15% are still in the wait and see category. Not sure what they are waiting for at this point, but if we get even 1 in 3 to come off the fence that gets us over 70%. That’s why I’m particularly optimistic we reach that target. In addition we will soon have teens 12-15 eligible so more potential spreaders getting vaccinated. Every little bit helps.

View attachment 555939

Yeah but what about fall/winter? Is this will getting worse by winter there will no longer spikes/surges anymore, as we don't wear masks in winter anymore for good, is the masks will never use ever again?

 

[nyrebel3]

That is certainly part of it. We have 30% seroprevalence here. But I still think it likely isn’t quite enough. Time will tell!

What is your reasoning to think it isn't quite enough? As your next door neighbor, we have virtually the same statistics. MS has been maskless since March 3 and lifted all restrictions on April 30. Surely we would have had a rebound by now. Our cases numbers are flat, not going down but definitely not going up. I expect the same for AL.

Speaking of children, my son has been in-person school the entire school year. Yes, there have been cases of Covid and my son has been quarantined due to close contact. But I do not know or have heard of any <17 y.o. with a severe case. Not saying that doesn't happen and we are lucky. But we are continuously bombarded with the news articles of "may", "can", "multiple cases" but no quantification of the real risk level. In backwater MS, my son has a 0.02% chance of contracting Covid AND admitted to the hospital (this is my definition of a severe case). And he has a 0.0004% chance of contracting Covid AND dying. And yes, every one of those 3 deaths is tragic. But considering these odds, I completely understand the vaccine hesitancy that parents have for their kids. I lose sleep worrying about my son driving, not Covid. That was the case even before he got vaccinated.

 

[FormerMember]

And we are not close to that point. 30% isn’t good enough.

You keep saying this as if it’s true.

44% of adults have completed their series. 58% have at least one dose. Nationally.

 

[GoofGoof]

You keep saying this as if it’s true.
View attachment 555947

44% of adults have completed their series. 58% have at least one dose. Nationally.

Looking at places like Israel once you pass the 50% of the population with 1 shot level the cases tail off quickly. They bottomed out there when they got north of 55%. In order to get to that 55% we need about 70% of adults to get a shot. We are on pace to accomplish that. Not long now.

 

[FormerMember]

Interesting.

 

[DC0703]

How common is that with COVID?

Anecdotally speaking...

My church pastor's family recently caught COVID after one of his teenage children contracted it at school. Though his family recovered soon, he ended up in the hospital with COVID pneumonia and blood clots throughout his legs and lungs. He is in his early 40s, slim, healthy, no risk factors. He updated the community that luckily he will be okay and being discharged soon, but was told by his doctor that he will likely require 4-5 months of recovery before he feels somewhat back to normal.

I'm glad he will be okay - I was worried when he announced he had COVID and then there was radio silence for three weeks.

Things really take on a new perspective when someone you know personally ends up in this position, especially when that person is around the same age and health as you. If more people really realized how scary a bad COVID diagnosis can be, and how long it can take to recover, I sense there would be far less reluctance to get vaccinated.

 

[GoofGoof]

Interesting.

Isn’t that what is happening? Multiple states already have no statewide Covid restrictions, individual local areas like Orange County FL are relaxing their restrictions in a phased approach. Blue state governors in NY/NJ/CT/PA have all either set dates for the removal of Covid restrictions or talked about the timing and even the CA Governor suggested all Cpvid restrictions would be lifted there by mid-June if vaccination pace continued. It seems to me like we are well on our way to start lifting the Covid restrictions almost everywhere.

 

[Tony the Tigger]

100% is not the goal. 100% has never been the goal. 100% will never be the goal. Because 100% is unattainable.

Also, if you had the choice to wear a mask or not, and then an executive order or law requires you to now wear a mask, that is a degree of freedom that has been legally restricted. That's just a fact. Now, it might be a minor restriction, it might be an insignificant restriction, and it might be a necessary restriction. But it is still, in fact, a restriction of a freedom.

I didn't say anything about 100% being the goal. Follow the thread.

I responded to this comment:

"DeSantis commented that if you believe that policing people is still necessary, then you don't believe in the vaccines or the science behind them"

because you can believe the vaccines work as they are supposed to but also they are not 100% effective. A thinking person factors that in and says, "Hey, great, I have a good bit of protection here. I'm still not going to go and make out with someone who is coughing and has a fever (or, more realistically, go to a crowded supermarket without a mask) because there ARE breakthrough infections, and who is to say I'll be the lucky one who doesn't get one? Plus, we know (especially in Florida) there are variants, and the science is always a few weeks behind the variants. How will we know if the variants transmit more via surfaces or spread faster or kill more? Because people will get infected and die. I won't be that guinea pig. I'll wear my mask in more risky situations.

And no, no matter how many times you say it is, wearing a mask is not a restriction of freedom. You may still go where you want, say what you want, do what you want with that mask on.

Tired of nitpicky responses that completely miss the point because they think they found a "gotcha!"

 

[FormerMember]

Isn’t that what is happening? Multiple states already have no statewide Covid restrictions, individual local areas like Orange County FL are relaxing their restrictions in a phased approach. Blue state governors in NY/NJ/CT/PA have all either set dates for the removal of Covid restrictions or talked about the timing and even the CA Governor suggested all Cpvid restrictions would be lifted there by mid-June if vaccination pace continued. It seems to me like we are well on our way to start lifting the Covid restrictions almost everywhere.

No. Lift them today. Not “start thinking of maybe contemplating removing some restrictions.” I know you’re not ready to give up your safety blanket of restrictions, but there is no longer any justification for any of it.

 

[GoofGoof]

No. Lift them today. Not “start thinking of maybe contemplating removing some restrictions.” I know you’re not ready to give up your safety blanket of restrictions, but there is no longer any justification for any of it.

Remember when the argument was “we have to lift restrictions today because we can’t live like this forever”? That argument loses a lot of steam when it’s changed to “we have to lift restrictions today because we can’t live like this for 2 more weeks“.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

1) If you're new here, go back and read the dang thread. Some of us are done with having the same stupid arguments just because you don't feel like reading. Many of us have been discussing this since the beginning.

2) ONE HUNDRED THOUSAND AMERICANS DEAD IN ONE MONTH. That's a pretty big freaking deal.

ETA: And those deaths were WITH mandates and mitigations in place. I don't want to think what that number could have been if they weren't.