DisneyFan32
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- Yes
Hmmm....in few months by July we might go back to normal as masks and social distancing will be gone for good?Vaccine hesitancy can be an issue, too soon to know for sure if it will be. First we don’t know how many people we need vaccinated and second we also don’t know how many people will ultimately go in and get it. There’s still plenty of overall demand for the vaccines so if it continues that areas have supply and no demand then we need to allocate doses elsewhere. Get the doses to the people who want them. At the same time it’s up to state and local governments to do a better job encouraging people to be vaccinated. In a lot of cases the same Governors who downplayed Covid are also doing a poor job in encouraging vaccinations. That will hurt their states in the long run. The focus needs to shift to making vaccinations even easier and more convenient. Make it so easy that it’s impossible for people to say they didn’t get it because it was too much of a hassle.
On the issue of how many people need to go, we can look at Israel as a benchmark. They are 4-6 weeks ahead of us on vaccines and have 59% of their population with at least 1 dose. They may have already reached herd immunity and their cases are well below the level we would need to hit to consider removing most or all restrictions. It’s not a perfect parallel to the US, but it gives us a ballpark idea and more importantly shows that you don’t need 80-90% of the population vaccinated to see really good results. If we do continue vaccinations at the current pace we should be where Israel is today with about 60% of the total population vaccinated in 4-6 weeks. I can’t say it’s a lock that we will see cases drop to their levels, but that’s the hope. Once 12+ are approved (any day now) we will need 70% of eligible people to go in for a vaccine to reach 60% of the total population vaccinated.
If it turns out that we don’t hit 70% of eligible people vaccinated or we do but the percent vaccinated needs to be higher to achieve the desired reduction in spread then we move on to plan B. We keep certain mitigations in place and for a lot of situations that require large public gatherings we switch to the vaccine passport plan. I don’t think we will see vaccine passports for everyday life but for things like sporting events, cruises, theme parks, concerts, night clubs and other large group gatherings it may become a reality. Again, that’s plan B and only if the vaccine rollout fails.