Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyDebRob]

The only age group where, FL is winning is 65+ (FL at 79.3%).



The ironic thing is that to this point in FL, it is the young, "woke," demographic that isn't filling up those appointments. The older folks seem to be motivated for the most part. There is obviously some selfishness there because the higher risk you are personally at the more motivated you will be.

It will be interesting what the trend starts to look like across the country for the under 40 population.

I’m also interested in the trend for the under 40 or so across the country. We can only hope what we are seeing in FL is just early data and things change. We can’t have those numbers across the country.

 

[CatesMom]

The only age group where, FL is winning is 65+ (FL at 79.3%).



The ironic thing is that to this point in FL, it is the young, "woke," demographic that isn't filling up those appointments. The older folks seem to be motivated for the most part. There is obviously some selfishness there because the higher risk you are personally at the more motivated you will be.

It will be interesting what the trend starts to look like across the country for the under 40 population.

Vaccine appointments for all ages don't open here in Virginia until next week, because demand continues to outpace supply by a large margin. We also remain under broad mitigation measures, so one incentive for everyone to get vaccinated here is to see the measures abate.

 

[Heppenheimer]

If the young people are balking at the vaccine in FL, maybe employers can take the lead in providing incentives (assuming that employers are actually motivated for this pandemic to end). Give a paid day off for getting the vaccine, particularly if the employee receives one of the mRNA vaccines and needs a sick day after the second dose. Or, barring that, provide some kind of cash bonus. Perhaps there's some kind of merchant's association or chamber of commerce that can pool resources and come up a standard incentive program for the state.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Maybe the young aren't clamoring for the vaccine because so many of them already had COVID and are either thinking they don't need it, or, at least, are in no hurry to be vaccinated?

 

[havoc315]

As I expected, when Publix reopened the booking window this morning, all of the counties in FL that had appointments remaining on Friday still have a lot available and there is no waiting room. The few counties that filled up Friday are still full. It seems that many counties have reached the point of anybody who wants a vaccine can get it and it seems in a lot of places that the percentage who want it is much lower than polling suggests. Let's take Leon county as a quick example. The population is around 294k and 95k have been vaccinated. Appointments always fill slowly and are now easily obtainable, yet less than 1/3 of the population is vaccinated.

If there isn't a major "carrot" approach to getting people vaccinated soon, we'll be sweating even getting over 50% of the population to get vaccinated.

The younger, low risk, demographic just doesn't seem very motivated to go out and get vaccinated. Based on my spreadsheet, here is the percentage of the population in FL that has had at least one dose by age group:

25-34 15.8%
35-44 24.5%
45-54 33.3%
55-64 50.2%
65-74 80.9%
75-84 81.1%
85+ 68%

The 45-64 group has been increasing pretty quickly and 65+ keeps creeping higher every day. I'd expect the 65+ acceptance rate to get close to 90%.

Based on the trend, I'd expect 55-64 to get to 75%+ and 45-54 to get to 70%+ pretty easily. I'm very concerned about the demand from people under 45. There needs to be some major incentives that are more than a free donut every day for the next 7.5 months. There needs to be a financial incentive or a formal policy from the top that allows you to dispense with all mitigation once you are two weeks past the final shot or both.

The only way to do that is vaccine passports.

Otherwise, everyone will just dispense with mitigation.
People compliant with voluntary mitigation tend to be the same people who are getting vaccines.

The people who are only compliant when forced — those are the people least likely to get vaccines.

So for what you discuss, the only practical way to implement would be: show your vaccine passport and feel free to enter the restaurant, theme park, movie theater.
No vaccine, no entry.

 

[JoeCamel]

The only way to do that is vaccine passports.

Otherwise, everyone will just dispense with mitigation.
People compliant with voluntary mitigation tend to be the same people who are getting vaccines.

The people who are only compliant when forced — those are the people least likely to get vaccines.

So for what you discuss, the only practical way to implement would be: show your vaccine passport and feel free to enter the restaurant, theme park, movie theater.
No vaccine, no entry.

Ohhh, they could be the mole people....

 

[havoc315]

Maybe the young aren't clamoring for the vaccine because so many of them already had COVID and are either thinking they don't need it, or, at least, are in no hurry to be vaccinated?

Old people — regardless of their politics — are mostly afraid of Covid, rightfully. They have seen their friends and acquaintances dropping dead.

But most 30-year-olds don’t know anyone from their generation who has died. So not surprising that they would feel less urgency. For those under 40, without strong stick/carrot, we will be lucky to hit 60-65%.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

If the young people are balking at the vaccine in FL, maybe employers can take the lead in providing incentives (assuming that employers are actually motivated for this pandemic to end). Give a paid day off for getting the vaccine, particularly if the employee receives one of the mRNA vaccines and needs a sick day after the second dose. Or, barring that, provide some kind of cash bonus. Perhaps there's some kind of merchant's association or chamber of commerce that can pool resources and come up a standard incentive program for the state.

If I’m a anti vaxxer.. or a young person who doesn’t think it can hurt me or my friends and have no desire to get the vaccine a days pay and a day off still wouldn’t do it. Maybe to the few that are a bit on the fence it might convince some but for the overall majority, no.
I think it’s a mostly built in thing in people. The people that see that it’s the way to help everyone will get it. People that have older parents or grand parents are getting in line. Most anyway. The others who might not have older people in their lives or know no one who has gotten COVID or is leaning very much to one side of a political side party will never get it. The question then becomes, how many is that then? Some early numbers like what @DisneyCane are saying it doesn’t look good. But that’s one state... and it’s still early so let’s hope and see.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Maybe the young aren't clamoring for the vaccine because so many of them already had COVID and are either thinking they don't need it, or, at least, are in no hurry to be vaccinated?

Or get their news from FB and Twitter and could care less.

 

[Abs]

I think one thing that will help younger people get vaccinated is quarantine rules. It won't be a vaccine passport but if you can avoid quarantining for two weeks after an exposure you will see a lot more young people get vaccinated. Eventually WFH flexibility will run out. Same with kids. You won't see schools mandate the vaccine but they will say if your kid has proof of vaccination they won't have to quarantine. This will get those on the fence.

 

[GoofGoof]

Anyone have thoughts/insight as to when WDW will increase capacity in their parks? Was just looking at the park pass availability calendar for early May and in the first week alone, two or three parks are unavailable each day, on a Monday through Friday period at that. Only Epcot has availability every day. If it’s that bad the first week of May, I can’t imagine how hard it will be to get reservations the rest of the summer if capacity is not increased soon.

(On a related note, everything is green on the availability calendar for July and beyond, except October 1. Could that mean they plan to significantly bump up capacity then?)

May 4th is the unofficial Star Wars celebration day so it may be that a lot of people are going to WDW the first week of May to try to get into SW Land. I know DHS has been sold out for a while on May 4 but now that they added hopping you can reserve another park and still go there in the afternoon. I thought it could also be gay days but I did a quick check and it looks like that’s the first week of June this year.

On the Summer calendar they may have added more capacity or it could just be that people aren’t planning that far out yet. Some people may be waiting to see if/when more restrictions are lifted.

 

[havoc315]

If I’m a anti vaxxer.. or a young person who doesn’t think it can hurt me or my friends and have no desire to get the vaccine a days pay and a day off still wouldn’t do it. Maybe to the few that are a bit on the fence it might convince some but for the overall majority, no.
I think it’s a mostly built in thing in people. The people that see that it’s the way to help everyone will get it. People that have older parents or grand parents are getting in line. Most anyway. The others who might not have older people in their lives or know no one who has gotten COVID or is leaning very much to one side of a political side party will never get it. The question then becomes, how many is that then? Some early numbers like what @DisneyCane are saying it doesn’t look good. But that’s one state... and it’s still early so let’s hope and see.

Distrust of science and government has become ingrained in the DNA of some Americans. Thus, if the government and scientific community tell them they should do something, they are inclined to run in the opposite direction. Among older Americans, they have seen the ravages of Covid up close, and that outweighs their politics. But for younger Americans, they are sticking to their general distrust of government and science.
And I have heard from 1 middle-aged co-worker, "I'm not going to get the vaccine, I don't want the communists tracking me!"

 

[GoofGoof]

I think one thing that will help younger people get vaccinated is quarantine rules. It won't be a vaccine passport but if you can avoid quarantining for two weeks after an exposure you will see a lot more young people get vaccinated. Eventually WFH flexibility will run out. Same with kids. You won't see schools mandate the vaccine but they will say if your kid has proof of vaccination they won't have to quarantine. This will get those on the fence.

I would take it one step further and in the not so distant future make the mask rules only apply to unvaccinated people. You show up for work every day and you have to wear a mask. If you are vaccinated you are exempt. Same with schools. Teachers and students who are vaccinated get out of wearing masks. In my kid’s schools they are making kids sit in individual desks spaced 6 feet apart for lunch now. For next school year the rule should be if you are vaccinated sit at regular tables and no masks, if not you get an individual desk spaced 6 feet apart and you put your mask back on if you get up. I guarantee if they do that almost every kid in the school gets the shot and same goes for employees at work. This vaccine resistance will fade away if it inconveniences the resistors. Very few of the people who aren’t planning to get the vaccine will be willing to suffer unnecessarily to prove a point. They will fold like a cheap suit if that choice is presented to them.

 

[GoofGoof]

One more thing about the UK. They didn’t get to this point just with vaccination. They have been in a pretty strict lockdown for the last 3 months.

only now — after such drastic reduction in cases — are they opening non-essential businesses and outdoor dining. Despite such low numbers, they are continuing to maintain significant restrictions.

While vaccinations will likely eventually bring a similar reduction here, it may not happen nearly as quickly as we are operating with far less mitigation than the U.K.

The promising thing is in both the UK and especially Israel as things did open back up cases did not surge. If you remember back to Feb when Israel came out of their stay at home orders there was a very small plateau in cases that lasted a week or 2. There were people here who saw that as certain doom. You can go back and see the series of posts. The vaccines did their thing and cases turned back downward and are now really bottoming out. So yes, we have less restrictions most places, but as we saw in Israel and now are starting to see in the UK, even when restrictions are in place and they get lifted the vaccines are still driving cases down, way down.

 

[GimpYancIent]

I would take it one step further and in the not so distant future make the mask rules only apply to unvaccinated people. You show up for work every day and you have to wear a mask. If you are vaccinated you are exempt. Same with schools. Teachers and students who are vaccinated get out of wearing masks. In my kid’s schools they are making kids sit in individual desks spaced 6 feet apart for lunch now. For next school year the rule should be if you are vaccinated sit at regular tables and no masks, if not you get an individual desk spaced 6 feet apart and you put your mask back on if you get up. I guarantee if they do that almost every kid in the school gets the shot and same goes for employees at work. This vaccine resistance will fade away if it inconveniences the resistors. Very few of the people who aren’t planning to get the vaccine will be willing to suffer unnecessarily to prove a point. They will fold like a cheap suit if that choice is presented to them.

Social distancing 6ft is an arbitrary number that translates to simply give each other some space (remember the virus can not judge distance or count) and depending on the location hard to maintain. The masks make absolute sense in enclosed spaces and locations where reasonable distancing can not be accomplished, but, outdoors with yards not feet away from each other masks should be totally optional. As for people not wanting to vaccinate, simply put, there are those that fear the vaccine more than the disease thanks to the fear mongers constant deluge of bad news.

 

[DKampy]

May 4th is the unofficial Star Wars celebration day so it may be that a lot of people are going to WDW the first week of May to try to get into SW Land. I know DHS has been sold out for a while on May 4 but now that they added hopping you can reserve another park and still go there in the afternoon. I thought it could also be gay days but I did a quick check and it looks like that’s the first week of June this year.

On the Summer calendar they may have added more capacity or it could just be that people aren’t planning that far out yet. Some people may be waiting to see if/when more restrictions are lifted.

Yeah... gay days is usually the 1st week in June... I know this cause my birthday is June 6...and it is always gping on when I visit WDW for my b-day

 

[havoc315]

The promising thing is in both the UK and especially Israel as things did open back up cases did not surge. If you remember back to Feb when Israel came out of their stay at home orders there was a very small plateau in cases that lasted a week or 2. There were people here who saw that as certain doom. You can go back and see the series of posts. The vaccines did their thing and cases turned back downward and are now really bottoming out. So yes, we have less restrictions most places, but as we saw in Israel and now are starting to see in the UK, even when restrictions are in place and they get lifted the vaccines are still driving cases down, way down.

For Israel -- that's totally true. Even better, they just finished their major Passover holiday without any significance surge.
Counterpoint -- Israel is using vaccine passports heavily. Non-vaccinated people aren't getting into gyms, theaters, etc.
So the lesson is: Vaccines + vaccine passports seem to work well.

UK -- They literally just started to lift the restrictions. So impossible to say whether the lifting of restrictions will lead to a surge or not. But we can take the lesson: Vaccines + restrictions work well.

Declines in the US are happening more slowly than the declines in Israel and the UK. I suspect that is because we really have few restrictions in place anymore (I know some people are acting like masks and capacity restrictions constitute a massive lock down, but that's really nothing compared to other first world nations).
I do think we will get to a similar point as Israel and the UK, but the American resistance to mitigation measures is slowing us down in terms of getting there.

 

[havoc315]

Social distancing 6ft is an arbitrary number that translates to simply give each other some space (remember the virus can not judge distance or count) and depending on the location hard to maintain. The masks make absolute sense in enclosed spaces and locations where reasonable distancing can not be accomplished, but, outdoors with yards not feet away from each other masks should be totally optional. As for people not wanting to vaccinate, simply put, there are those that fear the vaccine more than the disease thanks to the fear mongers constant deluge of bad news.

6 feet is neither 100% an absolute scientific standard nor is it arbitrary.

It's an adequate distance to significantly reduce direct droplet and aerosol exposure from another person. If people are actively coughing, singing, screaming.. then 6 feet probably isn't nearly enough distance. For soft conversation and interaction, 3-4 feet may usually be adequate (especially if also wearing masks).

Science and medicine often are not composed of absolutes. The greater the distance between 2 people, the less chance of virus exposure. 6 feet has a lower chance than 5 feet which has a lower chance than 4 feet. But it doesn't hit 0% at exactly 4 feet and 3 inches. There is no magic number where it hits 0. Even at 6 feet, it's still not 0.

 

[GimpYancIent]

6 feet is neither 100% an absolute scientific standard nor is it arbitrary.

It's an adequate distance to significantly reduce direct droplet and aerosol exposure from another person. If people are actively coughing, singing, screaming.. then 6 feet probably isn't nearly enough distance. For soft conversation and interaction, 3-4 feet may usually be adequate (especially if also wearing masks).

Science and medicine often are not composed of absolutes. The greater the distance between 2 people, the less chance of virus exposure. 6 feet has a lower chance than 5 feet which has a lower chance than 4 feet. But it doesn't hit 0% at exactly 4 feet and 3 inches. There is no magic number where it hits 0. Even at 6 feet, it's still not 0.

Yes, what you said = ARBITRARY! Thank you.

 

[James J]

The promising thing is in both the UK and especially Israel as things did open back up cases did not surge. If you remember back to Feb when Israel came out of their stay at home orders there was a very small plateau in cases that lasted a week or 2. There were people here who saw that as certain doom. You can go back and see the series of posts. The vaccines did their thing and cases turned back downward and are now really bottoming out. So yes, we have less restrictions most places, but as we saw in Israel and now are starting to see in the UK, even when restrictions are in place and they get lifted the vaccines are still driving cases down, way down.

We in the UK have only just lifted some of the restrictions this morning, so non-essential stores, gyms, salons, zoos, theme parks and outdoor dining are now back, but there's still no indoor dining and things like weddings and funerals are still having very limited attendees. No sporting stadia are allowing fans in until the end of May at the very earliest too.