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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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DisneyFan32

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
Yes
hopemax said:
I saw a thing this morning that IHME is watching trends in 18 states that are plateauing or ticking up. Reasons given were A. Rising mobility rates (largest jumps since the start) B. Restrictions being removed C. Variant impacts.
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is variants is getting worse in US now impacting? Even we're getting close to end pandemic as possible if trends still going down by July.
 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
mmascari said:
I'm assuming the factory example isn't a single household, which wouldn't make this the comparison. If everyone get's the vaccine except for Joe. Let's say Joe has a condition and cannot be vaccinated, he's in cancer treatments and needs to wait a month. Let's add Jane, his wife too. She's an anti-vaxer though, nobody likes Jane. Then, sure, that's just one household. Now the factory matches.

But, if it's a third of the factory that skips the vaccine. That's a third of the people from many different households, it's more like a public setting. The other guidelines apply.

In the grandma example, even the kids aren't wearing masks. Or the middle generation that's not vaccinated either.

None of them are wearing masks. It's not just the vaccinated person that's exempt.

Presumably, since the CDC didn't give any "why", the reason has to do with how much and how different viruses the vaccinated person will be exposed to. The single household is likely just one exposure risk. While a larger public exposure could be many different exposures.


They really should put out more information about the reasoning behind the guidelines. It's easy to see where they appear to be contradictory to each other, and contradictory to the message that the vaccine is super protective (which I think it is).
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It’s a private setting with a contained group of people where you can very easily verify who has been vaccinated and who hasn’t. I completely agree you can’t just make a place like WDW masks only for those vaccinated because there’s no practical way to verify. The CDC added “single household” to their guidance but what‘s the science behind that? Does the virus say, hold on I can’t infect that person because they are from the single household you are allowed to see? No. IMHO it’s written that way so people don’t have a blow out party where many unvaccinated people show up unmasked. If it’s another family you are interacting with it’s much easier to know their vaccine status. Since like you said we don’t know exactly why the guidance says that all we can both do is speculate. It still doesn’t change the fact that they already set a precedent of relaxing restrictions based on vaccination status. Pandora’s box is open.
 
Incomudro

Incomudro

Well-Known Member
danlb_2000 said:
And it's not a good idea to say that any specific mitigation effort "worked" or not. Every mitigation effort does some good and some bad. It's a question of the balance between the two.
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Yes.
Too many people speak with too much assuredness about how effective mitigation measures have been.
Truth is, we just don't know what effect they have had.
 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
DisneyFan32 said:
is variants is getting worse in US now impacting? Even we're getting close to end pandemic as possible if trends still going down by July.
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You’re still good. No worries. There’s a small potential plateau but cases are generally still trending down and vaccinations are churning along at 2.5M a day and we are approaching a quarter of the population having at least 1 shot. I’ve been saying this a lot lately, but you have to look at longer term trends than a day or even a week.

4D8452BE-1A1B-468C-9380-781BDBB44DE2.png
 
MisterPenguin

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
hopemax said:
I saw a thing this morning that IHME is watching trends in 18 states that are plateauing or ticking up. Reasons given were A. Rising mobility rates (largest jumps since the start) B. Restrictions being removed C. Variant impacts.
Click to expand...
Blame the Roaring 20's!!

[Yes, that's now an internet thing predicting that after a year of turtling, people will go hog wild going out, spending, and being reckless. Winners: parks. Losers: home TV]
 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
MisterPenguin said:
Blame the Roaring 20's!!

[Yes, that's now an internet thing predicting that after a year of turtling, people will go hog wild going out, spending, and being reckless. Winners: parks. Losers: home TV]
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That’s actually probably a likely prediction. I think we could have a bump of activity come the Spring but it may be a false recovery as people look to get out of the house and spend money saved form either lack of stuff to do and/or stimulus money. The issue is there are still parts of the economy that are very broken so it may be a boom followed by a pull back after due to fundamental issues. I’m hoping to at least enjoy the Summer. :cool:
 
D

DisneyFan32

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
Yes
GoofGoof said:
You’re still good. No worries. There’s a small potential plateau but cases are generally still trending down and vaccinations are churning along at 2.5M a day and we are approaching a quarter of the population having at least 1 shot. I’ve been saying this a lot lately, but you have to look at longer term trends than a day or even a week.

View attachment 540287
Click to expand...
Even by July masks and social distancing may be gone for good, as maybe back to normal by July or Late Summer or Fall/Winter
 
MaryJaneP

MaryJaneP

Well-Known Member
May be gone for good? Sure, there is a 50/50 chance. Are you betting or predicting they will be gone for good? Rubber tree plant?
 
GoofGoof

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Just to level set where the CDC is coming from on changes to guidelines for fully vaccinated people:

CDC Issues First Set of Guidelines on How Fully Vaccinated People Can Visit Safely with Others​

Press Release
For Immediate Release: Monday, March 8, 2021
Contact: Media Relations
(404) 639-3286
Today, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) issued its first set of recommendations on activities that people who are fully vaccinated against COVID-19 can safely resume.
The new guidance—which is based on the latest science — includes recommendations for how and when a fully vaccinated individual can visit with other people who are fully vaccinated and with other people who are not vaccinated. This guidance represents a first step toward returning to everyday activities in our communities. CDC will update these recommendations as more people are vaccinated, rates of COVID-19 in the community change, and additional scientific evidence becomes available.
“We know that people want to get vaccinated so they can get back to doing the things they enjoy with the people they love,” said CDC Director Rochelle P. Walensky, MD, MPH. “There are some activities that fully vaccinated people can begin to resume now in their own homes. Everyone – even those who are vaccinated – should continue with all mitigation strategies when in public settings. As the science evolves and more people get vaccinated, we will continue to provide more guidance to help fully vaccinated people safely resume more activities.”
  • Visit with other fully vaccinated people indoors without wearing masks or staying 6 feet apart.
  • Visit with unvaccinated people from one other household indoors without wearing masks or staying 6 feet apart if everyone in the other household is at low risk for severe disease.
  • Refrain from quarantine and testing if they do not have symptoms of COVID-19 after contact with someone who has COVID-19.
A person is considered fully vaccinated two weeks after receiving the last required dose of vaccine. Although vaccinations are accelerating, CDC estimates that just 9.2% of the U.S. population has been fully vaccinated with a COVID-19 vaccine that the FDA has authorized for emergency use.
While the new guidance is a positive step, the vast majority of people need to be fully vaccinated before COVID-19 precautions can be lifted broadly. Until then, it is important that everyone continues to adhere to public health mitigation measures to protect the large number of people who remain unvaccinated.
CDC recommends that fully vaccinated people continue to take these COVID-19 precautions when in public, when visiting with unvaccinated people from multiple other households, and when around unvaccinated people who are at high risk of getting severely ill from COVID-19:
  • Wear a well-fitted mask.
  • Stay at least 6 feet from people you do not live with.
  • Avoid medium- and large-sized in-person gatherings.
  • Get tested if experiencing COVID-19 symptoms.
  • Follow guidance issued by individual employers.
  • Follow CDC and health department travel requirements and recommendations.
CDC has released resources to help people make informed decisions when they are fully vaccinated.
Click to expand...

The 2 bold and underlined sentences spell out the longer term plan for relaxing Covid precautions. These changes are a first step towards the eventual relaxing of all Covid protocols and the CDC spells out that the vast majority of people need to be vaccinated before Covid precautions can be lifted broadly. So they start with more targeted changes and will update the recommendations as more people get vaccinated.
 
D

Disney Experience

Well-Known Member
Chi84 said:
I'm not doubting any of this, and the comparison between bacteria/antibiotic to virus/vaccine seems persuasive, but I haven't heard any experts advance this as a reason for vaccinated people to continue mitigation as usual. Likely because I just haven't been following as closely as you. Can you direct me to any articles, interviews or other sources that support this? People are familiar with the concept of overusing antibiotics, so it would make a persuasive argument if there was enough support for it. Thanks.
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In the words of someone in the field: (Though he works more with birds)
Matt Koci, a virologist and immunologist:
news.ncsu.edu

Vaccine Q&A: Vaccination Rates and New Mutations of the Virus

Let's talk about mutations to the virus that causes COVID-19.
news.ncsu.edu news.ncsu.edu
How does that work? Let’s use vaccination as an example. Getting vaccinated applies a selection pressure, because mutations that help a virus avoid detection by the vaccinated immune system will have an advantage over versions of the virus that don’t include that mutation. So, a virus that contains that mutation is more likely to reproduce and spread to other people. However, I want to be clear, this is NOT an argument against using vaccines. That would be like saying, “Thieves might figure out how to pick locks so there’s no reason to put a lock on my door.”

The vaccine is not causing this problem. Instead, think of it as a race between getting enough people immunity before the virus has a chance to mutate. Every infected person is one more chance for the virus to mutate, increasing the chances that a new variant emerges that spreads faster, makes people sicker, or can get around immunity. This is one reason why it is critically important for people to wear masks, wash hands, maintain social distance, and do everything they can to slow the spread of COVID-19.
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One key point he does not really address is that the selection pressure is greater as there are more vaccinated, while when the amount of virus is great there is more chances of mutations. A mutation whose only advantage is that it can infect the vaccinated will not have a evolutionary advantage if it isn't likely to infect someone who is vaccinated. So the risk when there is few vaccinated is lower because a mutation is less likely to run into the vaccinated vs unvaccinated, and it is low when there are lots of vaccinated but little virus around. The transition from the first state to the second has the higher risk of a mutated virus finding a vaccinated host for selection bias to work. So shorter that transition time is the better.
 
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