Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[correcaminos]

Depending on the system, there's different attack vectors. The problem is, the first line wasn't designed for this. Let's say there's a perfect secure central digital registry, run by some perfect entity with perfect security between the group checking and them. Scan a QR code, they show your picture and the person evaluating decides if that's you. Even if all those things were true, it's still suspect.

We just moved where the fake happens. The process to get an entry into that perfect system still has to determine that someone was vaccinated and create the entry. If they're just taking your word and a scan of the vaccine card you got, they'll load people who faked it. This pretend perfect system will vouch incorrectly that someone is vaccinated, creating legitimacy for the fake.


This is the type of process that would be needed. Something like a real passport, where they put some effort into validating the submitted material beyond just taking your word that the documents are valid.

It makes sense when traveling between areas with different responses, like countries. Transitions that already require actual passports. Adding a vaccine passport as an enhancement to a real passport makes sense. Starting to require passports for things that don't already require passports isn't likely.

Florida isn't going to set up entry check points on the highway or use airport customs for domestic travel all of a sudden. Which just means, eventually, the way Florida, Georgia, Alabama, and every other state are responding will find an equilibrium. At the end, we're not going to have a bunch of states under control and others not.

If we're not doing it at the state level, we're certainly not going to do it at a business level.

Cruise ships may be an exception, sort of. Since all cruising in the US involves an international destination, customs and passports are already required. Which means cruise ships can fall back on real passport updates with vaccine information, leveraging the nation state infrastructure.

Digital verification could be done for vaccinating relying on those who administered the shots to verify not those who got it .

To be truthful I think adding it to a real passport or whatever is far more complicated and not appropriate really.

Our country is too worried about freedoms to let this happen anyway but proof may be required for cruising. I am not promoting but noticing that people find excuses why not because it makes them uncomfortable not because it would be too hard to do.

 

[tpac24]

Of course Trevor Noah isn't an unbiased news source. And yes, Biden has a long history of a stutterer, and likely has slowed down a bit to his age.
But the point of the clip from the Daily Show, was the absurdity of the argument. Trump showed far greater physical and mental decline compared to Biden, but somehow, those on the right are attacked Biden for occasionally stuttering, they are selectively editing clips of him. it's Qanon falsifying videos of Biden, selectively editing clips, etc.

Anybody who claims that Biden is showing dangerous mental decline, but they had no problem with Trump... that's simply partisan biased nonsense.

And vice versa!

 

[Mickey2021]

Biden now says every adult will have the opportunity by the end of May. So all the people that want a vaccine will have one by summer. This implies whatever rate of vaccination we have by summer will probably be the rate we stay with barring some government mandate. At that point Disney is making decisions about how it wants its parks to operate for the foreseeable future as nothing new will change with vaccinations going forward. This is why I don't understand how the administration can say things might start getting back to normal by fall. Nothing will change between June and September. If fall is going to be better than so will summer.

 

[havoc315]

And vice versa!

Correct. I had many problems with Trump. I never claimed to oppose him because of verbal miscues.

 

[havoc315]

So vaccine passports coming to New York possibly..

New York Pilots COVID Passport of Sorts to Fast-Track Reopening: Here's How It Works

One week after Madison Square Garden and Barclays Center welcomed some fans back for the first time in a year, Gov. Andrew Cuomo is upping the game. The governor announced a pilot program Tuesday to test the Excelsior Pass during events at the two arenas. Think of the pass like a “COVID...

www.nbcboston.com

 

[MaryJaneP]

Biden now says every adult will have the opportunity by the end of May. So all the people that want a vaccine will have one by summer. This implies whatever rate of vaccination we have by summer will probably be the rate we stay with barring some government mandate. At that point Disney is making decisions about how it wants its parks to operate for the foreseeable future as nothing new will change with vaccinations going forward. This is why I don't understand how the administration can say things might start getting back to normal by fall. Nothing will change between June and September. If fall is going to be better than so will summer.

Having an "opportunity" to get the vaccine and actually delivering those vaccines into the arms of enough of the population in this country are two completely independent variables. One of which the government has made a predication on and one which nobody seems able to quantify with any accuracy.

 

[Chi84]

For now, the CDC card is as good as any for proof of vaccine, since it contains all the necessary information that would go into a medical vaccine record (date, place, manufacturer and lot number). We have told our patients, if they have it, to bring the card to their next outpatient appointment so that we can transcribe the information into their permanent medical record.

That makes sense because you know your patients, but if vaccine passports become necessary for travel or admission to cruises or entertainment venues, I'm fairly sure a more secure system will be devised.

 

[havoc315]

Interesting changes in NY travel rules as they relate to vaccines... Showing the lack of knowledge on how long vaccines work:

New York to loosen travel restrictions for Americans who've gotten the COVID-19 vaccine

"Domestic travelers are no longer required to quarantine or test out within 90 days of full vaccination," Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Wednesday.

www.usatoday.com

If you have been vaccinated within the last 90 days, no quarantine necessary. If it's been more than 90 days, you still have to vaccine.
In other words, right now, New York public policy is: we don't trust that the vaccines will work for more than 90 days.

I expect (and HOPE) they last a lot longer than 90 days. So I wouldn't be surprised to see this New York guideline get extended.

But this is a good demonstration of why this battle *might* not be that close to ending.

If vaccines truly only last about 90 days, then we can still get rid of Covid if we get everyone vaccinated in a very tight window. (then the vaccine wears off, but there is nobody to catch Covid from). But if it takes 120-150 days to vaccinate the population, then we just end up with a constant rolling basis of people's protection expiring.

 

[sullyinMT]

So vaccine passports coming to New York possibly..

New York Pilots COVID Passport of Sorts to Fast-Track Reopening: Here's How It Works

One week after Madison Square Garden and Barclays Center welcomed some fans back for the first time in a year, Gov. Andrew Cuomo is upping the game. The governor announced a pilot program Tuesday to test the Excelsior Pass during events at the two arenas. Think of the pass like a “COVID...

www.nbcboston.com

Like others have said, one off events like these, or modes of travel and border crossing make sense, especially if there is any push to get them open before we get to measurable herd immunity. Could bode well for something like Broadway coming back so long as they allow a testing alternative for youth attendance.

Going to this type of system just for grocery shopping or other daily life activities that have been going on all year (for the most part) isn’t likely to happen.

 

[sullyinMT]

Interesting changes in NY travel rules as they relate to vaccines... Showing the lack of knowledge on how long vaccines work:

New York to loosen travel restrictions for Americans who've gotten the COVID-19 vaccine

"Domestic travelers are no longer required to quarantine or test out within 90 days of full vaccination," Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Wednesday.

www.usatoday.com

If you have been vaccinated within the last 90 days, no quarantine necessary. If it's been more than 90 days, you still have to vaccine.
In other words, right now, New York public policy is: we don't trust that the vaccines will work for more than 90 days.

I expect (and HOPE) they last a lot longer than 90 days. So I wouldn't be surprised to see this New York guideline get extended.

But this is a good demonstration of why this battle *might* not be that close to ending.

If vaccines truly only last about 90 days, then we can still get rid of Covid if we get everyone vaccinated in a very tight window. (then the vaccine wears off, but there is nobody to catch Covid from). But if it takes 120-150 days to vaccinate the population, then we just end up with a constant rolling basis of people's protection expiring.

They’re just adopting CDC guidance. I’d assume they’ll change as data rolls in.

 

[GimpYancIent]

Interesting changes in NY travel rules as they relate to vaccines... Showing the lack of knowledge on how long vaccines work:

New York to loosen travel restrictions for Americans who've gotten the COVID-19 vaccine

"Domestic travelers are no longer required to quarantine or test out within 90 days of full vaccination," Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Wednesday.

www.usatoday.com

If you have been vaccinated within the last 90 days, no quarantine necessary. If it's been more than 90 days, you still have to vaccine.
In other words, right now, New York public policy is: we don't trust that the vaccines will work for more than 90 days.

I expect (and HOPE) they last a lot longer than 90 days. So I wouldn't be surprised to see this New York guideline get extended.

But this is a good demonstration of why this battle *might* not be that close to ending.

If vaccines truly only last about 90 days, then we can still get rid of Covid if we get everyone vaccinated in a very tight window. (then the vaccine wears off, but there is nobody to catch Covid from). But if it takes 120-150 days to vaccinate the population, then we just end up with a constant rolling basis of people's protection expiring.

Did anyone ever actually follow the NY travel rules? Really curious.

 

[havoc315]

Did anyone ever actually follow the NY travel rules? Really curious.

Yes, my friends and family mostly followed. And you had to be careful... if you had out of state license plates, they were recording when you entered the state. So you could get pulled over if you were driving around without quarantining.
Employers and schools were also notified when you returned to state, so they could keep you out of work/school.

 

[havoc315]

They’re just adopting CDC guidance. I’d assume they’ll change as data rolls in.

That's what I assume -- and hope. I'll be fully vaccinated by the end of March. And I have a WDW trip planned for August. I really don't want to quarantine or test out.

 

[GoofGoof]

Biden now says every adult will have the opportunity by the end of May. So all the people that want a vaccine will have one by summer. This implies whatever rate of vaccination we have by summer will probably be the rate we stay with barring some government mandate. At that point Disney is making decisions about how it wants its parks to operate for the foreseeable future as nothing new will change with vaccinations going forward. This is why I don't understand how the administration can say things might start getting back to normal by fall. Nothing will change between June and September. If fall is going to be better than so will summer.

I agree. The only caveat being that it will time for the vaccines to drive cases down. For example, let’s say pre-vaccine Covid had an r-naught of 2, meaning for every person infected they infected 2 others, and June 1 we have enough people vaccinated to make that number 0.5 so for Every 2 people infected they infect 1 additional person. So if the last week of May 100,000 people are infected then in theory the next week it’s 50,000, then 25,000 so on down the line. So there is a change from the point you reach a stable number of people vaccinated and where you bottom out. In other words it may take a month or 2 to see cases flatline at a low enough point. So while I agree that long term prospects don’t change much on number of people vaccinated it’s possible that even if we reach “herd immunity” by end of May cases are still not where we would want to be and it takes another month or so to reach low enough levels. That’s why things like TX removing the mask mandates today is really counterproductive. If we have a lower case count to start the vaccines will get us to that flatline case number much faster. But it appears that ship has sailed so we’ll try it this way.

Aside from that timing lag I agree that once we have maxed out the number of people willing to be vaccinated we basically are where we are and restrictions should come off. If cases still are high enough to result in community spread then the unvaccinated will become naturally immune over time. Either way I don’t think we have a level of infections that comes close to overrunning the hospitals or resulting in catastrophic death.

 

[correcaminos]

Interesting changes in NY travel rules as they relate to vaccines... Showing the lack of knowledge on how long vaccines work:

New York to loosen travel restrictions for Americans who've gotten the COVID-19 vaccine

"Domestic travelers are no longer required to quarantine or test out within 90 days of full vaccination," Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Wednesday.

www.usatoday.com

If you have been vaccinated within the last 90 days, no quarantine necessary. If it's been more than 90 days, you still have to vaccine.
In other words, right now, New York public policy is: we don't trust that the vaccines will work for more than 90 days.

I expect (and HOPE) they last a lot longer than 90 days. So I wouldn't be surprised to see this New York guideline get extended.

But this is a good demonstration of why this battle *might* not be that close to ending.

If vaccines truly only last about 90 days, then we can still get rid of Covid if we get everyone vaccinated in a very tight window. (then the vaccine wears off, but there is nobody to catch Covid from). But if it takes 120-150 days to vaccinate the population, then we just end up with a constant rolling basis of people's protection expiring.

Grumble. Still shut out due to stupid rules. Gagh. CDC really needs to update this once we have proof 90 days is too short

 

[havoc315]

Grumble. Still shut out due to stupid rules. Gagh. CDC really needs to update this once we have proof 90 days is too short

I suspect they will. They will watch the people vaccinated in January.... in April/May, if they appear to still be effectively vaccinates, the window will be lengthened.

 

[sullyinMT]

Grumble. Still shut out due to stupid rules. Gagh. CDC really needs to update this once we have proof 90 days is too short

There will be a growing number in your unfortunate shoes as we approach Easter.

 

[DisneyFan32]

I agree. The only caveat being that it will time for the vaccines to drive cases down. For example, let’s say pre-vaccine Covid had an r-naught of 2, meaning for every person infected they infected 2 others, and June 1 we have enough people vaccinated to make that number 0.5 so for Every 2 people infected they infect 1 additional person. So if the last week of May 100,000 people are infected then in theory the next week it’s 50,000, then 25,000 so on down the line. So there is a change from the point you reach a stable number of people vaccinated and where you bottom out. In other words it may take a month or 2 to see cases flatline at a low enough point. So while I agree that long term prospects don’t change much on number of people vaccinated it’s possible that even if we reach “herd immunity” by end of May cases are still not where we would want to be and it takes another month or so to reach low enough levels. That’s why things like TX removing the mask mandates today is really counterproductive. If we have a lower case count to start the vaccines will get us to that flatline case number much faster. But it appears that ship has sailed so we’ll try it this way.

Aside from that timing lag I agree that once we have maxed out the number of people willing to be vaccinated we basically are where we are and restrictions should come off. If cases still are high enough to result in community spread then the unvaccinated will become naturally immune over time. Either way I don’t think we have a level of infections that comes close to overrunning the hospitals or resulting in catastrophic death.

^ So you mean by summer things may go back to normal if people will getting vaccine faster soon? @GoofGoof

 

[GoofGoof]

Interesting changes in NY travel rules as they relate to vaccines... Showing the lack of knowledge on how long vaccines work:

New York to loosen travel restrictions for Americans who've gotten the COVID-19 vaccine

"Domestic travelers are no longer required to quarantine or test out within 90 days of full vaccination," Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Wednesday.

www.usatoday.com

If you have been vaccinated within the last 90 days, no quarantine necessary. If it's been more than 90 days, you still have to vaccine.
In other words, right now, New York public policy is: we don't trust that the vaccines will work for more than 90 days.

I expect (and HOPE) they last a lot longer than 90 days. So I wouldn't be surprised to see this New York guideline get extended.

But this is a good demonstration of why this battle *might* not be that close to ending.

If vaccines truly only last about 90 days, then we can still get rid of Covid if we get everyone vaccinated in a very tight window. (then the vaccine wears off, but there is nobody to catch Covid from). But if it takes 120-150 days to vaccinate the population, then we just end up with a constant rolling basis of people's protection expiring.

Just following CDC guidelines. They were very careful to word it that way to only include people vaccinated and that only includes about 3 months. What they want to avoid is someone infected last April saying I’m immune too so I should be exempt.

Did anyone ever actually follow the NY travel rules? Really curious.

Many employers adopted the same rules as the state as did most school districts. Kids were not allowed back in school without quarantining and it was enforced by the schools. Same with work. I know a lot of people here in PA who cancelled trips this past summer and in the Fall/Winter because their work required a quarantine. Not worth losing your job over just to prove a point.

 

[GoofGoof]

^ So you mean by summer things may go back to normal if people will getting vaccine faster soon? @GoofGoof

I hope some form of normal. Maybe not a full return, but this Summer sure looks like it will be better than last Summer.