Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyCane]

Not to rain in on anyone's happy train, but this has me a little concerned:

Covid-19 variants pose 'real threat' to vaccine progress, CDC warns

A top health expert says highly contagious variants of the virus pose a "real threat" to the US.

www.bbc.com

We're in a lull right now, and maybe nursing home residents are better protected now than ever before. But not nearly enough people are vaccinated yet for us to be able to rely on them to save us from another surge. We still need to mask and social distance. And judging by our collective performance on those matters thus far... I'm not too confident.

IF the vaccines prevent severe illness and death with the variants at the effectiveness they seem to be doing against the OG, then nursing home residents are more than better protected. Since none of the variants appears to be more serious or deadly, just more contagious, as more and more of the most vulnerable are vaccinated, more and more people at high risk should be protected from the worst outcomes.

Once the most vulnerable are fully vaccinated (65+ and younger people with high risk comorbidities), future surges become somewhat irrelevant. Not enough of those people are fully vaccinated yet so a surge in April would be somewhat of a concern but a surge in May or June shouldn't be a big concern. This post is based on the assumption/caveat that the vaccines are nearly as effective in preventing serious illness and death with variants as with the earlier strains.

 

[Touchdown]

IF the vaccines prevent severe illness and death with the variants at the effectiveness they seem to be doing against the OG, then nursing home residents are more than better protected. Since none of the variants appears to be more serious or deadly, just more contagious, as more and more of the most vulnerable are vaccinated, more and more people at high risk should be protected from the worst outcomes.

Once the most vulnerable are fully vaccinated (65+ and younger people with high risk comorbidities), future surges become somewhat irrelevant. Not enough of those people are fully vaccinated yet so a surge in April would be somewhat of a concern but a surge in May or June shouldn't be a big concern. This post is based on the assumption/caveat that the vaccines are nearly as effective in preventing serious illness and death with variants as with the earlier strains.

Actually, nursing home residents should be fully vaccinated by now, they were 1A just like healthcare workers. The only people who haven’t at least started being vaccinated in those groups have chosen not to be.

65 and up should be at that same level in about a month, if not sooner with the increase in vaccine shipments. My state saw a 15% increase in shots last week and is expecting an increase again this week. The pace of our vaccinations in this country is amazing.

 

[Kevin_W]

Good for them. There is probably enough lag to get started up it won't really affect the US, but could help the rest of the world supply. Or if boosters are needed next year.

 

[DisneyCane]

For those "concerned" about the Israel data, I've been using the long term care facility report for Florida to try and get an idea of the effect the vaccines are having. All residents and staff were offered their first shot by 2/1 and therefore should have had both shots.

The staff is out and about in the community when not at work and therefore would be expected to approximately follow the overall trend. Since 1/18, the seven day rolling average of cases in FL has declined 55.4%. I did not count yesterday as it is pretty clear the number is artificially low for some reason.

There were 2738 currently positive LTC facility staff members on 1/18. If that declined by 55.4%, there would have been 1,221 yesterday. Instead, there were 586. Therefore, 635 infections (not symptomatic cases) can be said to have been prevented by the vaccination program. This data makes it appear that the vaccination program of LTC facility staff has been 52% effective in preventing infections.

I do not know what the acceptance rate was or the timing of the two doses. It is likely that this effectiveness number will increase as more time passes because some number of the current infections likely occurred before 2 weeks after the second dose.

I also know that this analysis isn't statistically perfect because I'm comparing daily new cases in the general population with currently infected LTC staff who are tested every two weeks. However, over time, I'd expect these two declines (or increases) to track pretty closely.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

A year ago all you guys were as negative as all get out. Now you're screaming to be positive. Why the change? Is it the guy that kind string two sentences together? LOL. The change in attitude is remarkable and pretty amusing. I'm not just referring to you, but the whole group.

The change is mostly due to the fact that vaccines are now available for some people and availability is increasing so more and more people are getting their shots.

 

[Touchdown]

The change is mostly due to the fact that vaccines are now available for some people and availability is increasing so more and more people are getting their shots.

Exactly a year ago we had nothing, today we amazingly have 3 highly effective vaccines in this country, a very effective treatment that can prevent severe disease if given quickly (monoclonal antibody,) and a three therapy regimen for severe disease that has decreased mortality.

The world is a much different place today then even 6 months ago.

 

[GimpYancIent]

Not to rain in on anyone's happy train, but this has me a little concerned:

Covid-19 variants pose 'real threat' to vaccine progress, CDC warns

A top health expert says highly contagious variants of the virus pose a "real threat" to the US.

www.bbc.com

We're in a lull right now, and maybe nursing home residents are better protected now than ever before. But not nearly enough people are vaccinated yet for us to be able to rely on them to save us from another surge. We still need to mask and social distance. And judging by our collective performance on those matters thus far... I'm not too confident.

Wait! What happened to the recent DOUBLE masking push?

 

[GoofGoof]

A year ago all you guys were as negative as all get out. Now you're screaming to be positive. Why the change? Is it the guy that kind string two sentences together? LOL. The change in attitude is remarkable and pretty amusing. I'm not just referring to you, but the whole group.

Since day 1 of this pandemic one of my biggest concerns was someone I love getting very sick or passing away. My parents get their first vaccine shots today. My in-laws and other elderly relatives have all either been vaccinated or have appointments. That’s a big weight off of my mind. I know for some people who never believed Covid was a big deal that may not matter but it’s a huge deal to me and a lot of other people.

I’ve been consistent since day 1. We needed to take a series of precautions to avoid overrunning hospitals and stacking up dead bodies. I still believe the best thing for the economy would have been less cases overall by attempting to contain the virus (see Hawaii) but that ship has sailed and debate about that is pointless since we didn’t take that route. The only way to effectively contain and limit the virus was to follow good public safety precautions. That hasn’t changed and should still be the plan today. In no way do I advocate the removal of precautions today. In no way do I think we remove all precautions once the 65+ crowd is done being vaccinated. Once enough people have been vaccinated and cases flatline all the precautions can be removed. It was always a false narrative that “we“ all wanted to live like this forever. We all want a return to normal (most of us anyway), the debate was always on timing.

The only thing that has changed is that we have 3 approved and highly effective vaccines now and are well on our way towards vaccinating a large number of people and we now can see the light at the end of the tunnel. I’ve said all along we needed to follow simple protocols, make a few personal sacrifices for the greater good and hopefully reach herd immunity through vaccines. That hasn’t changed, just that we are much closer to the end game with vaccines. I’ve largely given up on the pointless debates on whether masks work, whether the government imposed mandates are legal, whether Covid is a hoax or deaths are overstated, etc... People are free to have those debates again for the hundredth time but I’ve turned the page and prefer to focus on the vaccine rollout. Vaccine or bust for the USA.

I have been critical of the current administration’s handling of the messaging around vaccines and timing. I still think they are doing so much better than the last administration but that’s a low bar (no bar?) to set. I can’t speak for anyone else, but my “change in attitude“ on Covid has little to do with Trump being gone. On a separate note it’s a great positive for the country in so many other ways that he’s not just gone from office but gone from the public eye and from Twitter.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

“Stupid is as stupid watches on tv”

Hydroxychloroquine was NEVER suggested to be used preventatively, by anyone.

It is not a preventative, period. It is not for severe cases, period. The only debate has ever been about whether it might be effective if administered to positive cases early. There are credible studies saying it is, and credible studies saying it isn't.

 

[Touchdown]

Hydroxychloroquine was NEVER suggested to be used preventatively, by anyone.

It is not a preventative, period. It is not for severe cases, period. The only debate has ever been about whether it might be effective if administered to positive cases early. There are credible studies saying it is, and credible studies saying it isn't.

And much better data for the only FDA approved treatment (remdesivir) and the 3 EUA treatments (monoclonal antibodies, plasma therapy, and dexamethasone.)

 

[CaptainAmerica]

And much better data for the only FDA approved treatment (remdesivir) and the 3 EUA treatments (monoclonal antibodies, plasma therapy, and dexamethasone.)

Great! Better data is good. But CNN's post is only talking about whether HCQ should be used as a preventative as if that's some new dunk on Trump. It's neither new, because we always knew that, nor a dunk on Trump, who never suggested that.

EDIT: Yes, clearly, Trump did say that and I was mistaken.

 

[Touchdown]

Great! Better data is good. But CNN's post is only talking about whether HCQ should be used as a preventative as if that's some new dunk on Trump. It's neither new, because we always knew that, nor a dunk on Trump, who never suggested that.

It’s not a dunk on trump it’s a dunk on the quacks who are still to this day pushing it as the preferred treatment.

Although the former President will never admit it but when the rubber met the road and he actually came down with the disease he agreed to and was admistered some (monoclonal antibodies for sure, likely others) if not all of the approved therapies.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

It’s not a dunk on trump it’s a dunk on the quacks who are still to this day pushing it as the preferred treatment.

Although the former President will never admit it when the rubber met the road and he actually came down with the disease he agreed to and was admistered some (monoclonal antibodies for sure, likely others) if not all of the approved therapies.

Who is pushing HCQ as a preventative?

 

[Miss Bella]

Poking fun at someone’s ability to speak coherently when it seems you have the same challenge is...classic.

Yeah, but I'm not the leader of the free world. I'm just a nobody posting on WDW forum. Nice personal attack though. Very classic of you.

 

[Miss Bella]

Most posters here, including @GoofGoof, have been pretty consistent in tone regardless of who's president. You're politicising things needlessly.

You guys politicized this thread a long time ago.

 

[Touchdown]

Who is pushing HCQ as a preventative?

Search the comment section of any YouTube health video, webmd, or social media.

 

[ABQ]

Not to rain in on anyone's happy train, but this has me a little concerned:

Covid-19 variants pose 'real threat' to vaccine progress, CDC warns

A top health expert says highly contagious variants of the virus pose a "real threat" to the US.

www.bbc.com

We're in a lull right now, and maybe nursing home residents are better protected now than ever before. But not nearly enough people are vaccinated yet for us to be able to rely on them to save us from another surge. We still need to mask and social distance. And judging by our collective performance on those matters thus far... I'm not too confident.

They often point out Brazil in these reports and seem to try to lead the reader into the impression Brazil was once under control and is now out of control. I'm not sure they ever were under control in Brazil. they were trending down last November but have been a mess ever since, and these new variants weren't said to be the cause back then.

 

[LittleBuford]

Your guys politicized this thread a long time ago.

“You guys”? I wasn’t aware I belonged to a side.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Who is pushing HCQ as a preventative?

I still see commenters on Medscape pushing it as both a preventative and therapeutic. I have no idea why. To paraphrase what was once said about a certain well-known but now defunct men's magazine, I go to Medscape to read the articles, which are usually well-sourced and written. But I sometimes peak at the hot garbage fire the comments section has become almost out of morbid fascination.

 

[Miss Bella]

Never fear... I think these guys are overly optimistic about the backside of the pandemic, same as so many were on the frontside, and this spring and next winter will have a bigger "bite" than people are imagining. Even if it is a massive improvement over the last year. 80% decline from this winter's numbers would still be worse than any recent flu, and 2009 H1N1 was not without warnings and "management" by health departments. And then people will be whining that they weren't told the truth, totally forgetting about how they steamrolled over any words of caution with accusations of manipulation and sandbagging.

As bad as it's been it's not near as bad as some on here were predicting last summer. Maybe the change in tone is the vaccines or someone in office that says what they want to hear. Probably a combination of both.