Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[havoc315]

The cases are higher than at points in the past but they are directionally declining and they started at a high point so it takes time to go down. Having an r-naught under 1 means every infected person infects less people than 1 so cases will decline but it doesn’t mean cases just go to zero. It’s not necessarily linear either. As long as the trend is downward that’s a positive. You are certainly free to view this as negative, not surprising, but I am choosing to view it as positive and will continue to believe in the vaccines.

??? Of course a downward trend is good. But we (and Israel) have had extensive downward trends even before vaccines. So a short period of R0<1 standing alone, doesn’t prove whether vaccines are working or not. (More detailed analysis does show vaccines in Israel are working, but not necessarily as fast as some would hope).
Now... Israel is in another upward trend. Upward trends are bad.. especially when 40% of the population is fully vaccinated.

Can we agree that downward trends are good and upward trends are not good?? Can you agree that R0>1.0 is not exactly a great sign???

Now... as I said, it’s premature to call it “bad.” But it’s wait and see. You can’t look at a R0 over 1.0 and pop champagne corks about how great things are going.

 

[GoofGoof]

??? Of course a downward trend is good. But we (and Israel) have had extensive downward trends even before vaccines. So a short period of R0<1 standing alone, doesn’t prove whether vaccines are working or not. (More detailed analysis does show vaccines in Israel are working, but not necessarily as fast as some would hope).
Now... Israel is in another upward trend. Upward trends are bad.. especially when 40% of the population is fully vaccinated.

Can we agree that downward trends are good and upward trends are not good?? Can you agree that R0>1.0 is not exactly a great sign???

Now... as I said, it’s premature to call it “bad.” But it’s wait and see. You can’t look at a R0 over 1.0 and pop champagne corks about how great things are going.

Looks downward to me. One day increase is not a trend.

 

[Kevin_W]

??? Of course a downward trend is good. But we (and Israel) have had extensive downward trends even before vaccines. So a short period of R0<1 standing alone, doesn’t prove whether vaccines are working or not. (More detailed analysis does show vaccines in Israel are working, but not necessarily as fast as some would hope).
Now... Israel is in another upward trend. Upward trends are bad.. especially when 40% of the population is fully vaccinated.

Can we agree that downward trends are good and upward trends are not good?? Can you agree that R0>1.0 is not exactly a great sign???

Now... as I said, it’s premature to call it “bad.” But it’s wait and see. You can’t look at a R0 over 1.0 and pop champagne corks about how great things are going.

Looks downward to me. One day increase is not a trend.

View attachment 536697

I was just typing that, Goof. Yes, the rate of decline flattened for the past week, but it ahs not increase.

That said, we can all agree that R<1 good, R>1 bad.

 

[GoofGoof]

I was just typing that, Goof. Yes, the rate of decline flattened for the past week, but it ahs not increase.

That said, we can all agree that R<1 good, R>1 bad.

Agreed. Cases going down is always good. If cases did uptick for a day or 2 but were still trending down looking at 7 or 14 day averages I’d say that’s still good news too.

 

[Duffman72]

Has there been any speculation on what benchmarks Disney has set in order to return to normal operation (no masks, higher capacity, fireworks, fast passes, etc)?

Now, mind you, I’m not looking to ignite a political fight about what their benchmarks should be. I am more curious if anyone knows what their thought pattern would be.

Meaning what percentage of the population would need to be vaccinated, what the new daily cases would have to drop to, positivity rate, etc. in order to satisfy management in to returning to normal.

 

[havoc315]

Agreed. Cases going down is always good. If cases did uptick for a day or 2 but were still trending down looking at 7 or 14 day averages I’d say that’s still good news too.

The trend slightly upward over the last 7 days

I’m not prepared to call this “bad.” May be nothing more than statistical noise.

But again — an upward trend, or even a high level plateau.. isn’t when you pop the champagne corks.

 

[carolina_yankee]

It seems there are some moral qualms over the JnJ vaccine. This will be interesting to watch with regard to the rollout.

New Orleans Archdiocese Asks Catholics to Avoid Johnson & Johnson COVID Vaccine | National Review

The Vatican previously issued guidelines which said it was ‘morally acceptable’ for Catholics to receive shots that used the cells for research.

www.nationalreview.com

 

[GoofGoof]

The trend slightly upward over the last 7 days

I’m not prepared to call this “bad.” May be nothing more than statistical noise.

But again — an upward trend, or even a high level plateau.. isn’t when you pop the champagne corks.

That’s reaching for sure, but I guess if you look hard enough at anything you can find a way to spin it negative. Not sure who was popping champagne corks anyway. You seem to think that anything anyone says that’s remotely positive is an over reaction and premature. It’s possible to be positive without prematurely popping a champagne cork.

 

[dizneyingaffect]

Considering they are only halfway through with vaccines and they already hit a small period of time below 1 that’s pretty encouraging news. They removed a lot of restrictions and the number went up above 1 now which I guess is expected. Since they are about 2 months ahead of us it’s a good indication on where things could go here if we continue ramping up vaccines.

For a country that has reached what many consider to be the lowest threshold for herd immunity (~60% vaccinated or antibodies from previous infection) to have an R above 1 despite masks and social distancing is the opposite of encouraging.

 

[dizneyingaffect]

The trend slightly upward over the last 7 days

I’m not prepared to call this “bad.” May be nothing more than statistical noise.

But again — an upward trend, or even a high level plateau.. isn’t when you pop the champagne corks.

If it's bad news it's statistical noise, if it's good news it's a trend!

 

[dizneyingaffect]

Has there been any speculation on what benchmarks Disney has set in order to return to normal operation (no masks, higher capacity, fireworks, fast passes, etc)?

Now, mind you, I’m not looking to ignite a political fight about what their benchmarks should be. I am more curious if anyone knows what their thought pattern would be.

Meaning what percentage of the population would need to be vaccinated, what the new daily cases would have to drop to, positivity rate, etc. in order to satisfy management in to returning to normal.

Optics, insurance, surveying guests, etc, but it really depends on when kids can get stabbed.

 

[Figgy1]

Has there been any speculation on what benchmarks Disney has set in order to return to normal operation (no masks, higher capacity, fireworks, fast passes, etc)?

Now, mind you, I’m not looking to ignite a political fight about what their benchmarks should be. I am more curious if anyone knows what their thought pattern would be.

Meaning what percentage of the population would need to be vaccinated, what the new daily cases would have to drop to, positivity rate, etc. in order to satisfy management in to returning to normal.

The one thing in this whole situation I am absolutely positive about is that Disney legal has rooms full of charts and graphs. Restriction will ease when they say they can and not one second sooner. I expect capacity and distancing to ease, more attractions and dining will open well before masks go.

 

[GoofGoof]

Has there been any speculation on what benchmarks Disney has set in order to return to normal operation (no masks, higher capacity, fireworks, fast passes, etc)?

Now, mind you, I’m not looking to ignite a political fight about what their benchmarks should be. I am more curious if anyone knows what their thought pattern would be.

Meaning what percentage of the population would need to be vaccinated, what the new daily cases would have to drop to, positivity rate, etc. in order to satisfy management in to returning to normal.

Disney has consistently said they will follow the recommendations of the public health officials and government agencies like the CDC. I’m not sure that they have a set number for stats internally and if they do I’m sure it’s not public knowledge. On vaccinations I would think at a minimum they need to get the CMs vaccinated before large scale relaxing of safety protocols. They agreed to many of these protocols with the unions when the parks were looking to reopen. I’m guessing the unions won’t have an issue relaxing them once their members have been vaccinated. My guess is the government recommendations will be based on cases and other stats not just percent of population vaccinated. Young kids are another issue for Disney since they are a major part of their target audience and won’t be vaccinated as quickly as the rest of the general public.

 

[mmascari]

2) Deliberately infect the test subjects to see if it works.

The second option would never pass muster with an institutional review board.

I feel like I saw a recent proposal to do exactly this. With exactly those questions for a review board. Side note, to establish the challenge baseline used to infect and test, first they have expose people without any protection to different virus quantities to determine an infectious dose to use in the challenge. It’s no good if the challenge dose is to low, wouldn’t tell you if you’re protecting or just not enough to infect. That’s quite the sales pitch to get those volunteers.

Has there been any speculation on what benchmarks Disney has set in order to return to normal operation (no masks, higher capacity, fireworks, fast passes, etc)?

Now, mind you, I’m not looking to ignite a political fight about what their benchmarks should be. I am more curious if anyone knows what their thought pattern would be.

Meaning what percentage of the population would need to be vaccinated, what the new daily cases would have to drop to, positivity rate, etc. in order to satisfy management in to returning to normal.

Speculation about benchmarks would be a nice change from about timing. At least we can all look at the stats to see how it’s progressing towards the speculative benchmarks.

I think it’s going to be case counts combined with positivity. Indirectly the daily death rate. I don’t think vaccination availability or vaccinated percent will matter, other than that they’ll push the first metrics down.

Somewhere under 1% positivity where contact tracing can effectively isolate and contain outbreaks, along with surveillance testing. Distancing probably goes first somewhere between 1% and 5%. That’s my guess.

 

[Chomama]

I think everything should be exempt from fire safety codes.

Step 1: Publish fire safety standards.

Step 2: Publicly identify places that are not in compliance with those standards, but do not force them to comply.

Step 3: Let grown *** adults decide what level of risk they want to take, provided that they're adequately informed of those risks.

This is one of the worst takes I have read on here. Maybe you were using hyperbole but in practice this makes zero zero zero sense

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Woah...this may be the most “off the rails” a thread has ever gotten...

And that’s a feat!!

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

This is one of the worst takes I have read on here. Maybe you were using hyperbole but in practice this makes zero zero zero sense

He’s playing the “faux libertarian who loves money from the navy blue state” gag

 

[Tom P.]

He’s playing the “faux libertarian who loves money from the navy blue state” gag

Ah, yes, the old faux libertarian who loves money from the navy blue state trick...

 

[Chomama]

He’s playing the “faux libertarian who loves money from the navy blue state” gag

I just can’t with the extreme and nonsensical debates. It’s a waste of time bc these people want to debate just for the sake of it and have no interest or curiosity about other viewpoints. It isn’t in good faith. Aren’t we tired yet?

 

[Miss Bella]

That’s reaching for sure, but I guess if you look hard enough at anything you can find a way to spin it negative. Not sure who was popping champagne corks anyway. You seem to think that anything anyone says that’s remotely positive is an over reaction and premature. It’s possible to be positive without prematurely popping a champagne cork.

A year ago all you guys were as negative as all get out. Now you're screaming to be positive. Why the change? Is it the guy that kind string two sentences together? LOL. The change in attitude is remarkable and pretty amusing. I'm not just referring to you, but the whole group.