Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[havoc315]

Vaccine passports are unlikely to be used widespread in the US. They may work for specific one off situations like a cruise or maybe a concert but I don’t see us getting anywhere close to the passport to interact in public. The country isn’t wired that way. Plus we have the issue of kids not being eligible so do we just say anyone with kids under 12 cannot do anything with their children in public? Tough sell.

If the CDC continues to revise their guidance for anyone who is vaccinated that acts as a version of a carrot for people to get vaccinated. If for example they say the travel quarantine restrictions don’t apply to anyone who is vaccinated that would be a great incentive for anyone who wants to travel out of state to get the vaccine first. Even though the CDC recommendations are just guidelines and aren’t enforceable as laws many employers use those guidelines. So if your employer requires you to quarantine after traveling if you aren’t vaccinated that could push people towards getting the vaccine to avoid taking extra time off.

Don’t disagree that it goes against the wiring of many Americans. As I said, I’d like to see the passport used extensively, but I don’t see it happening.

And honestly, people who don’t want to get vaccinated are probably largely the type who wouldn’t comply with quarantines. (In NY, quarantine is “mandatory” but it’s mostly an honor code. Not very enforceable).
And most people don’t travel *that* often, that interstate travel quarantines would affect them as any priority.

As to children... they will likely eventually get a vaccine. But if it’s not for a while, can allow children entry as long as all adults in the party are vaccinated. (Making it a pretty safe pod of people)

Again, I know it won’t happen. But just saying it’s hard to have a very certain normalization timeframe when we don’t know if enough people will actually get vaccinated.

 

[Touchdown]

The latest figures I can find (2013) state that 18-22% of WDW visitors are from overseas. That is roughly 1 in 5. So no WDW will not be back to normal!
For your information the U.K. are also vaccinating at a very impressive rate.
I have no problem with vaccination passports throughout the world for every required situation, though from what I have read on this forum this would not be acceptable to the majority of citizens of the USA. From your response I surmise it would be acceptable to impose this requirement on visitors from overseas. Not a very democratic (true meaning not a political party) outlook. I do however find your dismissal of other vaccines than those approved by the USA somewhat arrogant. Astra Zeneca has been approved by the WHO so I would imagine that the USA would have to acknowledge the effectiveness of the vaccine even if they continue to ignore it in perpetuity!
I think my “bitterness” comes primarily from my longing to return to Florida whilst still (advancing years) able to enjoy it. I feel sure that WDW will be open to American citizens to enjoy in some form of normality for many months or possibly years before overseas visitors are allowed back. The bottom line is I’m jealous!!

I think it’s the government’s responsibility to protect it’s citizens, if a pandemic is raging outside US borders but not inside it then it’s perfectly reasonable to enact restrictions on non citizens trying to enter (that’s a right of any country.) Democracies grant certain rights to citizens, but have the right to restrict them to only citizens.

As far as the AstraZenica comment, early studies suggest it is completely ineffective against the SA strain. There is a possibility this was due to lax production standards at the factory that sent said vaccine to SA, and if that’s the case it’s possible vaccines made elsewhere might still be good, but it also might be that that vaccine is ineffective and thus might be rejected in any vaccine passport.

The sinovac vaccine is <50% effective and thus deemed ineffective by our FDA it almost certainly won’t be included, the AZ vaccine might still be approved but between the botched study and possible production slip up it’s not UK’s finest hour. Sorry but it’s the truth.

 

[GoofGoof]

I simply don’t see why things can’t be back to close to normal within the next couple months. The vast majority of hospitalizations and deaths from Covid are in the 65 and over age group, as well as those with compromised immune systems. These are also the groups receiving the vaccinations currently. Covid cases and deaths have been falling already and will continue to do so as more people, especially high risk ones, get their shots.

Obviously Covid can still affect those who are younger and otherwise healthy, but we can’t live this way forever. Tens of thousands of people die from the flu every year. Once the elderly and high risk patients have an adequate chance to get their vaccines, it’s time to return to normalcy. Yes, technically they can still be infected, but the studies showed that the vaccinations prevent severe illness and death.

I think it’s a matter of a few months longer than that before significant progress is made. I don’t think we go right to no covid restrictions once the 65+ and health risk groups are done. That could lead to an unnecessary spike in cases and result in the vaccinations taking longer to do their thing and reduce cases to a manageable level. Taking Disney as a simple example there are many CMs who need to work there to pay their bills and eat. It’s not fair to them to say even if you don’t have the vaccine yet you need to expose yourself to a higher risk starting next month because 65+ are covered. I think we still wait until either the general public (including front line workers) has had their chance to be vaccinated or the cases to drop low enough that it doesn’t matter. I do think cases start to drop soon from vaccinations but not far enough to go back to normal yet. Summer is not out of the question for a return of some normal stuff at least.

 

[DC0703]

I simply don’t see why things can’t be back to close to normal within the next couple months. The vast majority of hospitalizations and deaths from Covid are in the 65 and over age group, as well as those with compromised immune systems. These are also the groups receiving the vaccinations currently. Covid cases and deaths have been falling already and will continue to do so as more people, especially high risk ones, get their shots.

Obviously Covid can still affect those who are younger and otherwise healthy, but we can’t live this way forever. Tens of thousands of people die from the flu every year. Once the elderly and high risk patients have an adequate chance to get their vaccines, it’s time to return to normalcy. Yes, technically they can still be infected, but the studies showed that the vaccinations prevent severe illness and death.

It's simple - we need to give everyone over 18 the chance to get the vaccine first. If we ditched masks and opened everything up before all the young adults can get vaccinated, we would risk another major surge that could be particularly bad with the variants floating around. Not to mention that a major surge could spawn new variants, that could in turn undermine vaccines and send us back to square one.

Let's not fumble the ball when were almost at the end zone.

 

[GoofGoof]

Don’t disagree that it goes against the wiring of many Americans. As I said, I’d like to see the passport used extensively, but I don’t see it happening.

And honestly, people who don’t want to get vaccinated are probably largely the type who wouldn’t comply with quarantines. (In NY, quarantine is “mandatory” but it’s mostly an honor code. Not very enforceable).
And most people don’t travel *that* often, that interstate travel quarantines would affect them as any priority.

As to children... they will likely eventually get a vaccine. But if it’s not for a while, can allow children entry as long as all adults in the party are vaccinated. (Making it a pretty safe pod of people)

Again, I know it won’t happen. But just saying it’s hard to have a very certain normalization timeframe when we don’t know if enough people will actually get vaccinated.

The travel quarantines are largely not enforced by the government. Where they come into play is individual employers enforcing the same requirements. People may not comply with the government mandate because there’s no real punishment if you don’t comply but if they face losing their job over not complying that’s a different story. I know a few people who cancelled trips because they didn’t want to take that much time off of work. Schools are also enforcing it near me so kids who travel have to do virtual school when they get back for the quarantine period.

I think the main talking point should be that we don’t know when the return to normal will be for certain but that it definitely won’t be until enough people get vaccinated. The sooner people get vaccinated the sooner we get back to normal. Making predictions that it will be 9-12 months from now is counterproductive.

 

[Flugell]

I think it’s the government’s responsibility to protect it’s citizens, if a pandemic is raging outside US borders but not inside it then it’s perfectly reasonable to enact restrictions on non citizens trying to enter (that’s a right of any country.) Democracies grant certain rights to citizens, but have the right to restrict them to only citizens.

As far as the AstraZenica comment, early studies suggest it is completely ineffective against the SA strain. There is a possibility this was due to lax production standards at the factory that sent said vaccine to SA, and if that’s the case it’s possible vaccines made elsewhere might still be good, but it also might be that that vaccine is ineffective and thus might be rejected in any vaccine passport.

The sinovac vaccine is <50% effective and thus deemed ineffective by our FDA it almost certainly won’t be included, the AZ vaccine might still be approved but between the botched study and possible production slip up it’s not UK’s finest hour. Sorry but it’s the truth.

WHO Recommends AstraZeneca Covid-19 Vaccine Against South Africa Strain

The World Health Organization said evidence suggests governments should continue rolling out the vaccine despite concerns about its efficacy.

www.wsj.com

Absolutely incorrect about Astra Zeneca though agree that initially there was some confusion. However it has now been agreed that the “error” was beneficial as the longer gap between doses actually improves the effectiveness of the vaccine, weird but true!
The speed of our vaccination programme is absolutely one of our finest hours and like the USA we haven’t had many!
No problem with countries enforcing restrictions on entry to overseas travellers -we are currently “doing” enforced quarantine but are also enforcing quarantine for our returning citizens.

 

[lazyboy97o]

If you or others want to continue wearing masks in public to prevent getting a cold or flu each year, that’s your right to do so. However, we’ve survived for thousands of years not wearing masks and I believe there is no reason for government to mandate them after this is over. I’d rather deal with the occasional cold or flu than wear a mask everywhere I go.

Just because we’ve done something for thousands of years is a lousy reason to continue doing it.

 

[ParentsOf4]

The latest figures I can find (2013) state that 18-22% of WDW visitors are from overseas. That is roughly 1 in 5. So no WDW will not be back to normal!
For your information the U.K. are also vaccinating at a very impressive rate.

During the February 4, 2020 earnings call, Disney CFO Christine McCarthy stated:

Let me take the domestic park question on international visitation. We have typically run in the 18% to 22% range for guests outside of the U.S. We're at the low end of that range, maybe a tick below, right now because some of the South American markets because of the disruption in those economies have had lower visitation. The two I would cite would be -- that won't be a surprise to anyone -- would be Brazil and Argentina.​

​

In general, the parks do not have a significant amount of visitation from Asia. When you look at Walt Disney World, no Asian markets even factors into the top 5. And the top 1 being the U.K. -- which I think everyone knows that -- and then we have Brazil, Canada, Mexico and Argentina. That is for the East Coast, Walt Disney World.​

​

Since this earnings call was for 1Q2020 (i.e. October to December 2019), this is the last full quarter that was not impacted by COVID.

 

[havoc315]

The travel quarantines are largely not enforced by the government. Where they come into play is individual employers enforcing the same requirements. People may not comply with the government mandate because there’s no real punishment if you don’t comply but if they face losing their job over not complying that’s a different story. I know a few people who cancelled trips because they didn’t want to take that much time off of work. Schools are also enforcing it near me so kids who travel have to do virtual school when they get back for the quarantine period.

I think the main talking point should be that we don’t know when the return to normal will be for certain but that it definitely won’t be until enough people get vaccinated. The sooner people get vaccinated the sooner we get back to normal. Making predictions that it will be 9-12 months from now is counterproductive.

I wonder what number of employers will really enforce it.

I'll respectfully disagree on "talking points." I think making any sort of high-confidence prediction is counterproductive. If the prediction turns out to be too optimistic, you'll get rebellion when people get told,"we know you thought it would be normal by XXX. but we actually need a few more months."
I do believe there should be more transparency. But I'm fine with generally preparing for the public that it *could* go into next year. I haven't seen many saying it *will* go into next year.
I'm fine with a general talking point encouraging people to vaccinate... with the basis of, "the faster we vaccinate enough people, the faster things may return to normal." But I'd be careful about over-promising. Though unlikely, it's not exactly impossible that we vaccinate 90% by July, but find there are even newer variants wreaking havoc... and we need to extend mitigation until we can get boosters widely distributed. (to be clear, I believe that's an unlikely scenario but not a "no chance" scenario. )

Guess I'd say, "prepare for the worst, plan for most likely but hope for the most optimistic possible outcome."

 

[Incomudro]

I think it’s a matter of a few months longer than that before significant progress is made. I don’t think we go right to no covid restrictions once the 65+ and health risk groups are done. That could lead to an unnecessary spike in cases and result in the vaccinations taking longer to do their thing and reduce cases to a manageable level. Taking Disney as a simple example there are many CMs who need to work there to pay their bills and eat. It’s not fair to them to say even if you don’t have the vaccine yet you need to expose yourself to a higher risk starting next month because 65+ are covered. I think we still wait until either the general public (including front line workers) has had their chance to be vaccinated or the cases to drop low enough that it doesn’t matter. I do think cases start to drop soon from vaccinations but not far enough to go back to normal yet. Summer is not out of the question for a return of some normal stuff at least.

"Cases" as in case numbers won't matter if the infected aren't ending up in hospitals and/or dying.

 

[GoofGoof]

"Cases" as in case numbers won't matter if the infected aren't ending up in hospitals and/or dying.

The vaccines are nearly 100% effective at keeping people out of hospitals and dying. Outside of that there are no guarantees. I can say with near 100% certainty that the plan will not be to remove all Covid restrictions once the 65+ crowd is vaccinated. Anyone expecting that is going to be highly disappointed come April when that doesn’t happen.

 

[lisa12000]

I think it’s the government’s responsibility to protect it’s citizens, if a pandemic is raging outside US borders but not inside it then it’s perfectly reasonable to enact restrictions on non citizens trying to enter (that’s a right of any country.) Democracies grant certain rights to citizens, but have the right to restrict them to only citizens.

As far as the AstraZenica comment, early studies suggest it is completely ineffective against the SA strain. There is a possibility this was due to lax production standards at the factory that sent said vaccine to SA, and if that’s the case it’s possible vaccines made elsewhere might still be good, but it also might be that that vaccine is ineffective and thus might be rejected in any vaccine passport.

The sinovac vaccine is <50% effective and thus deemed ineffective by our FDA it almost certainly won’t be included, the AZ vaccine might still be approved but between the botched study and possible production slip up it’s not UK’s finest hour. Sorry but it’s the truth.

You do realise that to not allow people into the US who have had a WHO approved vaccine which is going to be the mainstay for the most of the countries around the world, many of whom are regular visitors to the US, is very unlikely. All of the real time information coming out about AstraZeneca suggests that one shot is actually more effective in terms of hospitalisations and severe illness than Pfizer. There is nowhere enough evidence on any of the vaccines in terms of the SA variant however the likelihood is that there will be significant protection from severe disease and hospitalisation from all of them - more research needs to be done and in addition every one is looking at boosters.

I find it shocking yet again some of the talk about AZ, and saying its not the UK's finest hour! seriously the level of snobbery about certain vaccines against others is staggering! and you are talking about excluding UK tourists for how long? forever? because they had AZ rather than Pfizer? and many EU tourists as well as they are going to be using it quite substantially and are reversing their original decision about the over 65s due to the real life evidence they are seeing from the UK! not forgetting India and every country on the Covax scheme which is mainly AZ as well?

again I go back to my comments a few days earlier - it is our responsibility on these boards not to perpetuate fears about certain vaccine that may lead to vaccine hesitancy in any nation - now you dont know any more than me but to read your comment you would thing that you know that it wont be approved (no suggestion of this atm) and those who have had it definitely wont be allowed in the US - people who read this will be more hesitant to get this vaccine in other countries and I think thats irresponsible.

Look at UK figures, look at the cases and esp the death rate in the UK esp in the over 80s and realise that we must be doing something right right now! we have had just over 6000 cases today and sadly 190 deaths for 67 million people - I think that the UK is doing okay right now! despite our apparently crap vaccine!

 

[robhedin]

The travel quarantines are largely not enforced by the government. Where they come into play is individual employers enforcing the same requirements. People may not comply with the government mandate because there’s no real punishment if you don’t comply but if they face losing their job over not complying that’s a different story. I know a few people who cancelled trips because they didn’t want to take that much time off of work. Schools are also enforcing it near me so kids who travel have to do virtual school when they get back for the quarantine period.

I think the main talking point should be that we don’t know when the return to normal will be for certain but that it definitely won’t be until enough people get vaccinated. The sooner people get vaccinated the sooner we get back to normal. Making predictions that it will be 9-12 months from now is counterproductive.

We're scheduled to go to Hawaii the beginning of October for a couple of weeks. They're one of the few states that seem to have a fairly strict entry policy -- either present with a valid completed vaccination series that is no older than 3 months, or bring a negative test that is no more than 72 hours old (and depending on where you're going, plan on taking another on arrival), or go into a 10 day quarantine. My wife and I asked our doctor if we should get the vaccine as soon as we're eligible or hold off on it until July in order to avoid the travel hassle. Interestingly, he didn't push either way and seemed fairly open to waiting. We haven't made a decision yet, so I guess we'll see.

 

[GoofGoof]

I wonder what number of employers will really enforce it.

I'll respectfully disagree on "talking points." I think making any sort of high-confidence prediction is counterproductive. If the prediction turns out to be too optimistic, you'll get rebellion when people get told,"we know you thought it would be normal by XXX. but we actually need a few more months."
I do believe there should be more transparency. But I'm fine with generally preparing for the public that it *could* go into next year. I haven't seen many saying it *will* go into next year.
I'm fine with a general talking point encouraging people to vaccinate... with the basis of, "the faster we vaccinate enough people, the faster things may return to normal." But I'd be careful about over-promising. Though unlikely, it's not exactly impossible that we vaccinate 90% by July, but find there are even newer variants wreaking havoc... and we need to extend mitigation until we can get boosters widely distributed. (to be clear, I believe that's an unlikely scenario but not a "no chance" scenario. )

Guess I'd say, "prepare for the worst, plan for most likely but hope for the most optimistic possible outcome."

I don’t see it as over promising if you never promise anything. Again, if you tell people to get vaccinated as soon as possible because that’s the fastest way to a return to normal I think that’s the right set of talking points. I’m not worried about rebellion either. We had rebellion for the last 9 months when a small group of people didn’t want to follow simple safety protocols. That won’t change, they still don’t want to follow and certainly won’t be any more willing if you tell them we’re keeping them around for 9+ months longer. I don’t think we need to slow play the whole situation to placate those snowflakes. Tell people your honest best guess on timelines, tell them it’s a best guess not a promise and that nothing is guaranteed because there are a ton of variables and if something derails the process or even slightly delays it come back to me as soon as you know that and tell me there’s a delay and why. The vast majority of Americans can handle that and will appreciate that approach vs being told no return to normal until 2022 because there’s a chance that could actually happen.

 

[Touchdown]

You do realise that to not allow people into the US who have had a WHO approved vaccine which is going to be the mainstay for the most of the countries around the world, many of whom are regular visitors to the US, is very unlikely. All of the real time information coming out about AstraZeneca suggests that one shot is actually more effective in terms of hospitalisations and severe illness than Pfizer. There is nowhere enough evidence on any of the vaccines in terms of the SA variant however the likelihood is that there will be significant protection from severe disease and hospitalisation from all of them - more research needs to be done and in addition every one is looking at boosters.

I find it shocking yet again some of the talk about AZ, and saying its not the UK's finest hour! seriously the level of snobbery about certain vaccines against others is staggering! and you are talking about excluding UK tourists for how long? forever? because they had AZ rather than Pfizer? and many EU tourists as well as they are going to be using it quite substantially and are reversing their original decision about the over 65s due to the real life evidence they are seeing from the UK! not forgetting India and every country on the Covax scheme which is mainly AZ as well?

again I go back to my comments a few days earlier - it is our responsibility on these boards not to perpetuate fears about certain vaccine that may lead to vaccine hesitancy in any nation - now you dont know any more than me but to read your comment you would thing that you know that it wont be approved (no suggestion of this atm) and those who have had it definitely wont be allowed in the US - people who read this will be more hesitant to get this vaccine in other countries and I think thats irresponsible.

Look at UK figures, look at the cases and esp the death rate in the UK esp in the over 80s and realise that we must be doing something right right now! we have had just over 6000 cases today and sadly 190 deaths for 67 million people - I think that the UK is doing okay right now! despite our apparently crap vaccine!

First I only said if it proves ineffective against the SA strain, studies are on going. Stop getting so touchy.

Second, AZ is a two series shot, J&J is a one series shot both are cheap and easy to store. Eventually, once production is up and running, J&J is going to overtake AZ in popularity and with COVEX as it is a lot easier to fully vaccinate hard to reach areas with a one series shot vs a double one.

 

[GoofGoof]

We're scheduled to go to Hawaii the beginning of October for a couple of weeks. They're one of the few states that seem to have a fairly strict entry policy -- either present with a valid completed vaccination series that is no older than 3 months, or bring a negative test that is no more than 72 hours old (and depending on where you're going, plan on taking another on arrival), or go into a 10 day quarantine. My wife and I asked our doctor if we should get the vaccine as soon as we're eligible or hold off on it until July in order to avoid the travel hassle. Interestingly, he didn't push either way and seemed fairly open to waiting. We haven't made a decision yet, so I guess we'll see.

Interesting. I wouldn’t hold off on the vaccine since they may alter that policy at any time. I assume the 3 months is only because that’s the longest we have for people from the general public being vaccinated. I think they did that to avoid people who were naturally infected possibly up to a year ago now saying they are immune too so shouldn’t need to show proof.

 

[havoc315]

I don’t see it as over promising if you never promise anything. Again, if you tell people to get vaccinated as soon as possible because that’s the fastest way to a return to normal I think that’s the right set of talking points. I’m not worried about rebellion either. We had rebellion for the last 9 months when a small group of people didn’t want to follow simple safety protocols. That won’t change, they still don’t want to follow and certainly won’t be any more willing if you tell them we’re keeping them around for 9+ months longer. I don’t think we need to slow play the whole situation to placate those snowflakes. Tell people your honest best guess on timelines, tell them it’s a best guess not a promise and that nothing is guaranteed because there are a ton of variables and if something derails the process or even slightly delays it come back to me as soon as you know that and tell me there’s a delay and why. The vast majority of Americans can handle that and will appreciate that approach vs being told no return to normal until 2022 because there’s a chance that could actually happen.

What you're saying should be the message -- That's what I'm hearing. I haven't heard anyone to say "no normal until 2022."

It's important to read beyond the headlines. The media sensationalizes stories in the headline, often picking an outlying part of the story. It's not even the journalists writing the story who pick the headline -- it's an editor who picks the headline in order to grab attention.

For example: Washington Post headline from last week:

"When will we return to normal? The question looms as Fauci says mask-wearing may continue in 2022."​

Now, even the headline doesn't have Fauci saying mask-wearing WILL continue until 2022. Just "may" continue. So they decided the "maybe" we worthy of the headline, in order to sensationalize.

So what did Fauci actually say:
“No, you know, I can’t say that, Dana,” Fauci told CNN’s Dana Bash when she asked him on Sunday whether his timeline for a return to normality had been pushed back by a year or more. “Because then it will be a sound bite that’s not true. I’m saying: We don’t know."

So, all he said if "he didn't know" if we would need masks in 2022..

His further message was almost exactly what you said:
“I want it to keep going down to a baseline that’s so low there is virtually no threat,” Fauci said. “If you combine getting most of the people in the country vaccinated with getting the level of virus in the community very, very low, then I believe you’re going to be able to say, you know, for the most part, we don’t necessarily have to wear masks.”

So, he gave no timeline -- he just said that "if you get lots of people vaccinated and it gets the level of the virus to a very very very low level" then we won't generally need masks.

Sadly, what we are already seeing, is a rush to normalization whenever the *trend* of the numbers looks good. "Numbers are on their way down, time to re-open!"
What Fauci is warning us about -- and I don't know how much patience there will be for it -- You really have to wait for the numbers to sink to a minimal level BEFORE you rip off your masks. (I read it comments to suggest he wants to see us down to well under 1000 cases per day... probably more like under 100 per day, before we re-open. Much like Australia is now down to an average of 5 cases per day. When adjusted for population, that's 65 cases per day in the US.

 

[havoc315]

View attachment 536097Yup, totally not going to end, things are horrible and only getting worse...

For the first time since September our hospitalized pts nationally are below 50k.

It's going to end eventually.
But, drop the sarcasm... there has been an upward blip. It may just be statistical noise, but may represent a 4th wave start now.

IHME model predicts continuing downward trend but includes the possibility that we are starting another wave (not nearly as big as the last wave):

Really showing the range of uncertainty, IHME is predicting that by the end of May, the daily # of infections will be between 3,333 and 112,000, with their best estimate at 15,420 by the end of May.

I'll go out on a limb: If we are at 3,333 by the end of May (the most extreme scenario they project), then we go back to "normal" by July/August.
If we are at 15,420 by end of May, then we are on track to rip off our masks by the fall.
If we are in the 40,000 - 100,000 range by the end of May... then I don't see how we get out of this before the end of the year.

 

[GoofGoof]

What you're saying should be the message -- That's what I'm hearing. I haven't heard anyone to say "no normal until 2022."

It's important to read beyond the headlines. The media sensationalizes stories in the headline, often picking an outlying part of the story. It's not even the journalists writing the story who pick the headline -- it's an editor who picks the headline in order to grab attention.

For example: Washington Post headline from last week:

"When will we return to normal? The question looms as Fauci says mask-wearing may continue in 2022."​

Now, even the headline doesn't have Fauci saying mask-wearing WILL continue until 2022. Just "may" continue. So they decided the "maybe" we worthy of the headline, in order to sensationalize.

So what did Fauci actually say:
“No, you know, I can’t say that, Dana,” Fauci told CNN’s Dana Bash when she asked him on Sunday whether his timeline for a return to normality had been pushed back by a year or more. “Because then it will be a sound bite that’s not true. I’m saying: We don’t know."

So, all he said if "he didn't know" if we would need masks in 2022..

His further message was almost exactly what you said:
“I want it to keep going down to a baseline that’s so low there is virtually no threat,” Fauci said. “If you combine getting most of the people in the country vaccinated with getting the level of virus in the community very, very low, then I believe you’re going to be able to say, you know, for the most part, we don’t necessarily have to wear masks.”

So, he gave no timeline -- he just said that "if you get lots of people vaccinated and it gets the level of the virus to a very very very low level" then we won't generally need masks.

Sadly, what we are already seeing, is a rush to normalization whenever the *trend* of the numbers looks good. "Numbers are on their way down, time to re-open!"
What Fauci is warning us about -- and I don't know how much patience there will be for it -- You really have to wait for the numbers to sink to a minimal level BEFORE you rip off your masks. (I read it comments to suggest he wants to see us down to well under 1000 cases per day... probably more like under 100 per day, before we re-open. Much like Australia is now down to an average of 5 cases per day. When adjusted for population, that's 65 cases per day in the US.

What started this whole conversation is my disappointment with Fauci and the administration for actually saying no return to normal until 2022. From the attached article:

After months of suggesting that life could start to feel "normal" again this fall -- if the vaccine rollout worked as planned -- Fauci in an interview with LA Times Today this week gave a new prediction.

"Hopefully, by the time we start entering 2022, we really will have a degree of normality that will approximate the kind of normality we've been used to," Fauci said.

That was a departure from previous predictions, including remarks he gave at conference hosted by the Association of Performing Arts Professionals just last month.

"If everything goes right … by the time we get to the early to mid-fall, you can have people feeling safe performing onstage as well as people in the audience," he said on Jan. 9.

I’m not making this stuff up. It’s a relatively recent change and a puzzling one at that considering no reason was given for why the target was shifted back 3 or 4 months.

When will life get back to normal? Fauci now says 2022

President Joe Biden and his advisers, including Dr. Anthony Fauci, this week struggled to explain what most Americans should expect in the months ahead in the pandemic.

abcnews.go.com

 

[CatesMom]

This is my biggest issue so far with the vaccine rollout, it would be nice to have had a single portal, at least at the state level, where you could sign up, and then be scheduled at whatever location near you has availability.

Virginia has a single sign up system, and it's terribly frustrating. Individuals 65+ can (as of this week) book appointments directly with CVS pharmacy, but otherwise, all vaccine appointments -- whether through pharmacies or other providers -- are doled out by the state. People 16-64 with co-morbidities (including me) are eligible according to the state guidelines, but we are in a black hole wondering when our number will be called.