Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[CatesMom]

This is my biggest issue so far with the vaccine rollout, it would be nice to have had a single portal, at least at the state level, where you could sign up, and then be scheduled at whatever location near you has availability.

Virginia has a single sign up system, and it's terribly frustrating. Individuals 65+ can (as of this week) book appointments directly with CVS pharmacy, but otherwise, all vaccine appointments -- whether through pharmacies or other providers -- are doled out by the state. People 16-64 with co-morbidities (including me) are eligible according to the state guidelines, but we are in a black hole wondering when our number will be called.

 

[havoc315]

What started this whole conversation is my disappointment with Fauci and the administration for actually saying no return to normal until 2022. From the attached article:


I’m not making this stuff up. It’s a relatively recent change and a puzzling one at that considering no reason was given for why the target was shifted back 3 or 4 months.

When will life get back to normal? Fauci now says 2022

President Joe Biden and his advisers, including Dr. Anthony Fauci, this week struggled to explain what most Americans should expect in the months ahead in the pandemic.

abcnews.go.com

Shifted because vaccines have been a couple months behind earlier goals and variants are pushing back the timeline.

But really.... read it carefully. He didn't say we will be abnormal in 2022... he said:
"by the time we start entering 2022, we really will have a degree of normality"

He didn't say we won't have the "degree or normality" until 2022... he said we would have it "by the time" we enter that year. Again, I think he is just being cautious. Ultimately saying, "might not have much normality until the end of the year." I read it as his outside window, not his "most likely" projection.
Yes, the word "hopefully" almost makes it seem like that's his optimistic scenario. To me, it just shows him being very cautious with his words.


Here is how I read it the statement...
"By the end of the year, most things should be pretty normal... but not necessarily everything, so I'll call it a degree of normality"... and even this scenario isn't guaranteed, things could turn even worse, so I'll throw in the word "hopefully" to cover myself in case we still aren't normal by the end of 2021."

I have sensed a subtle shift of a couple months, but I see that solely due to where we are on vaccinations compared to where we had hoped to be. Not along ago, the Trump admin was talking about getting everyone vaccinated by April.

Trump Now Claims 'Every American' Will Have Coronavirus Vaccine By April

The president has contradicted health experts, and now his own ambitious timeline, for a vaccine against COVID-19.

www.npr.org

Considering the start of April is now just 1 month away, and we have only fully vaccinated 7.5% of Americans.. we clearly aren't going to hit that end of April target.

And it wasn't just Trump exaggeration: The Warp Speed Chief Science Officer, back in December, was still projecting 40 million doses by the end of December and 150 million per month by March. He talked about adding a 3rd vaccine (AZ or JNJ) in January.. not March..

Trump Covid vaccine chief Slaoui says everyone in U.S. could be immunized by June

If enough people get immunized, the U.S. pandemic could be under control in the second half of 2021, the Trump administration's Covid vaccine chief said.

www.cnbc.com

March will be far better than any prior month, but we still aren't going to be anywhere close to 150 million. And we are just now adding a 3rd vaccine. (I'd be thrilled if we could do 100 million jabs in March, and 120 million in April).

So we are a little behind where we had hoped to be, as recently as December.

 

[mmascari]

From my standpoint the CDC has to be careful with their quarantine requirements in another way. Say I wanted to travel August 15th, the current waiver for quarantine when exposed to a confirmed positive is up to 3 months from last dose. It would make more sense for me to delay getting the vaccine until I'm in that 3 month window as I'm more likely to come into contact then vs with my current precautions at home. Same if my employer requires quarantine or vaccine. Hopefully this doesn't delay too many people, and the longer we go the greater the covered period will become.

We're scheduled to go to Hawaii the beginning of October for a couple of weeks. They're one of the few states that seem to have a fairly strict entry policy -- either present with a valid completed vaccination series that is no older than 3 months, or bring a negative test that is no more than 72 hours old (and depending on where you're going, plan on taking another on arrival), or go into a 10 day quarantine. My wife and I asked our doctor if we should get the vaccine as soon as we're eligible or hold off on it until July in order to avoid the travel hassle. Interestingly, he didn't push either way and seemed fairly open to waiting. We haven't made a decision yet, so I guess we'll see.

Counterpoint, you could get the vaccine as soon as you’re able to and not die from COVID.

Travel policies and restrictions change, and change more as more information is known or community spread levels change. However, not dying from COVID is forever.

As someone in group 3, it seems behind everyone else here, I would trade with anyone who is waiting because of some guideline that specifies the vaccine must only be X distant in the past. How will your loved ones feel, when the see, “X died of COVID in April. Could have been vaccinated in March, but they were waiting until closer to their trip. A trip they’ll never get to take now.” It’ll be tragic. Please, get vaccinated as soon as you are able to.


On the messaging front, I’m not sure how “not dying” isn’t the focus. Who cares that the vaccine doesn’t grant special exemption from mitigation. It grants you life and not death. Better odds than a lottery ticket. Sign me up to not die as soon as possible.

Bonus that the group effort of more vaccination will reduce community spread too, and that will lead to less mitigation restrictions. So, sign me up, I get to not die AND contribute to reducing community spread. Win Win.

 

[GoofGoof]

Shifted because vaccines have been a couple months behind earlier goals and variants are pushing back the timeline.

Between his January quotes on a return to normal by Fall and his latest comments pushing it back to 2022 Pfizer moved the delivery of their second 100M doses up 2 months from End of July to end of May. Moderna moved up their their target for the second 100M doses from the end of June to the end of May and both companies agreed to deliver their third 100M doses by the end of July which was originally projected for the end of Q3. In addition the JnJ trial ended with positive results and we had a potential 3rd vaccine ready for approval. So I’m failing to see how vaccines fell a couple of months behind. If anything they are a couple of months ahead of where they were on Inauguration Day.

We can agree to disagree on the variants. I don’t see how something that may happen can push back timelines. There’s no certainty around any of the variants having any impact on vaccine timelines or rollout.

 

[Kevin_W]

It's going to end eventually.
But, drop the sarcasm... there has been an upward blip. It may just be statistical noise, but may represent a 4th wave start now.

IHME model predicts continuing downward trend but includes the possibility that we are starting another wave (not nearly as big as the last wave):

View attachment 536333


Really showing the range of uncertainty, IHME is predicting that by the end of May, the daily # of infections will be between 3,333 and 112,000, with their best estimate at 15,420 by the end of May.

I'll go out on a limb: If we are at 3,333 by the end of May (the most extreme scenario they project), then we go back to "normal" by July/August.
If we are at 15,420 by end of May, then we are on track to rip off our masks by the fall.
If we are in the 40,000 - 100,000 range by the end of May... then I don't see how we get out of this before the end of the year.

The IHME model now has a 1-year history of being dead wrong. But I applaud them for keeping going; we have to at least try to ascertain what the future might hold.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

What started this whole conversation is my disappointment with Fauci and the administration for actually saying no return to normal until 2022. From the attached article:


I’m not making this stuff up. It’s a relatively recent change and a puzzling one at that considering no reason was given for why the target was shifted back 3 or 4 months.

When will life get back to normal? Fauci now says 2022

President Joe Biden and his advisers, including Dr. Anthony Fauci, this week struggled to explain what most Americans should expect in the months ahead in the pandemic.

abcnews.go.com

You definitely got a Fauci “thing” going now...

I don’t get your sense of wrong in moving targets and hedging...

1. The logistics are huge and it was never going to be easy. Especially when you have 50 whacky state governments to contend with. That was donnie the dip...trying to avoid “fault” and done screwed that doggie.
2. People as a whole are just two dumb to be treated like they are all capable of handling the truth.

People hate to hear that...but the last year made it “settled science”.
Look at the clown show that’s gone on? There is no excuse except DUMB. The lack of making a good, reasoned choice on health.

 

[havoc315]

Between his January quotes on a return to normal by Fall and his latest comments pushing it back to 2022 Pfizer moved the delivery of their second 100M doses up 2 months from End of July to end of May. Moderna moved up their their target for the second 100M doses from the end of June to the end of May and both companies agreed to deliver their third 100M doses by the end of July which was originally projected for the end of Q3. In addition the JnJ trial ended with positive results and we had a potential 3rd vaccine ready for approval. So I’m failing to see how vaccines fell a couple of months behind. If anything they are a couple of months ahead of where they were on Inauguration Day.

We can agree to disagree on the variants. I don’t see how something that may happen can push back timelines. There’s no certainty around any of the variants having any impact on vaccine timelines or rollout.

Variants are not "may happen" -- it's ALREADY happening. We don't know the degree of the effect yet, but we know it's happening, we know the vaccines are less effective. (we don't fully know how much less effective).

Pfizer and Moderna fell way behind their goals they were listing in December and early January. They now have advanced some of their later goals. But simply, in March/April, we won't be where we thought we would be in March/April, back in December and January.

Early January, LESS than 2 months ago -- the chief scientist for operation warp speed was saying we would have 150 million doses per month by March. Do you expect we will have anywhere close to 150 million over the course of March? As I said, I'm hoping for 100 million but even that could be a reach. Pessimistically, could be 85-90 million. Best case, probably not better than 110 million.
*Maybe*.. in April/May, we hit where we hoped to be in Feb/March. Maybe we get to a point where we are just 1 month behind earlier goals, if we speed up.

 

[GoofGoof]

You definitely got a Fauci “thing” going now...

I don’t get your sense of wrong in moving targets and hedging...

1. The logistics are huge and it was never going to be easy. Especially when you have 50 whacky state governments to contend with. That was donnie the dip...trying to avoid “fault” and done screwed that doggie.
2. People as a whole are just two dumb to be treated like they are all capable of handling the truth.

People hate to hear that...but the last year made it “settled science”.
Look at the clown show that’s gone on? There is no excuse except DUMB. The lack of making a good, reasoned choice on health.

For the first 9 months of Covid all we heard from the federal government were lies, conspiracy theories and finger pointing. I was hoping for something different.

 

[GoofGoof]

Variants are not "may happen" -- it's ALREADY happening. We don't know the degree of the effect yet, but we know it's happening, we know the vaccines are less effective. (we don't fully know how much less effective).

Pfizer and Moderna fell way behind their goals they were listing in December and early January. They now have advanced some of their later goals. But simply, in March/April, we won't be where we thought we would be in March/April, back in December and January.

Early January, LESS than 2 months ago -- the chief scientist for operation warp speed was saying we would have 150 million doses per month by March. Do you expect we will have anywhere close to 150 million over the course of March? As I said, I'm hoping for 100 million but even that could be a reach. Pessimistically, could be 85-90 million. Best case, probably not better than 110 million.
*Maybe*.. in April/May, we hit where we hoped to be in Feb/March. Maybe we get to a point where we are just 1 month behind earlier goals, if we speed up.

I don’t care what anyone from the Trump administration said. It has no bearing on anything in the real world. I don’t want to argue anymore on this, but you are flat out wrong that Pfizer and Moderna are behind their goals. It’s just not true. At no time since EUA did either of those companies revise their projections back. They both moved projections way up in the last 6 weeks. It’s been nothing but positive news.

 

[havoc315]

The IHME model now has a 1-year history of being dead wrong. But I applaud them for keeping going; we have to at least try to ascertain what the future might hold.

Actually... they have been pretty darn accurate in most cases, especially more recently.
Headlines often broadcast their most extreme outlying forecasts. The actual results in the US have consistently fallen within the range predicted by IHME. As with any such statistical models, the models improve over time and become more accurate over time.

 

[BrianLo]

because virtually anyone in healthcare would tell you that they don't use a regular surgical mask to stop virus's.

I am not sure what you mean. Surgical masks have always been what we use for contact droplet respiratory pathogens, of which COVID-19 is largely one. They work quite effectively, granted gowning and gloving. They are only ineffective for airborne viruses - Varicella, TB, Measles, etc. It is the constant wearing of visors or goggles that does not predate this.

The IHME model now has a 1-year history of being dead wrong. But I applaud them for keeping going; we have to at least try to ascertain what the future might hold.

I cannot do the whole track back of this model, but its funny that people feel it under predicts and others feel it over-predicts. I think we had posters back in the Fall who were extremely upset with this model saying total deaths would stand at 384k by the end of February (thinking that was a huge overcall).

 

[havoc315]

I don’t care what anyone from the Trump administration said. It has no bearing on anything in the real world. I don’t want to argue anymore on this, but you are flat out wrong that Pfizer and Moderna are behind their goals. It’s just not true. At no time since EUA did either of those companies revise their projections back. They both moved projections way up in the last 6 weeks. It’s been nothing but positive news.

Facts matter. They didn't come close to their December and early goals. And we are talking about Fauci and government statements, not statements from Pfizer and Moderna. But if you really want to talk about Pfizer and Moderna's projections...

"In an earnings call on Oct. 23, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla stated that the company had already made “hundreds of thousands” of doses of its Covid-19 vaccine candidate; he expects to have 30 million to 40 million doses ready to deliver to the US by the end of the year"

Did Pfizer deliver 30 million to 40 million doses to the US by the end of 2020? No... nowhere close to that.

But let's look more recent... even after the EUA's... look at what the CDC was saying..

"Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, estimated at a Dec. 20 meeting of a CDC advisory panel that there would be 40 million doses delivered in December, 60 million in January and 100 million in February. "

So, just 10 weeks ago, the CDC was announcing we would have 200 million doses by end of February.
Today is the end of February, are we ahead of 200 million doses or are be we behind?

Spoiler alert: we are at 75 million doses. So we are 125 million doses behind where we thought we would be, by the end of December.
So even if we have an excellent March... we won't hit 200 million total doses until April... 1-2 months behind.

 

[havoc315]

For the first 9 months of Covid all we heard from the federal government were lies, conspiracy theories and finger pointing. I was hoping for something different.

I haven't seen any lies or conspiracy theories in this administration. I've seen efforts at transparency.
Not everything has been perfect -- their plans for opening schools have certainly been muddy. And I'm not surprised to see some degree of finger pointing, every new administration will point some fingers at the former administration.

But no, I haven't seen any lies or conspiracy theories. I see a government trying to be transparent and realistic with people.

 

[GoofGoof]

I haven't seen any lies or conspiracy theories in this administration. I've seen efforts at transparency.
Not everything has been perfect -- their plans for opening schools have certainly been muddy. And I'm not surprised to see some degree of finger pointing, every new administration will point some fingers at the former administration.

But no, I haven't seen any lies or conspiracy theories. I see a government trying to be transparent and realistic with people.

I never said there were any. The post I was actually responding to said:

2. People as a whole are just two dumb to be treated like they are all capable of handling the truth.

 

[Touchdown]

It's going to end eventually.
But, drop the sarcasm... there has been an upward blip. It may just be statistical noise, but may represent a 4th wave start now.

IHME model predicts continuing downward trend but includes the possibility that we are starting another wave (not nearly as big as the last wave):

View attachment 536333


Really showing the range of uncertainty, IHME is predicting that by the end of May, the daily # of infections will be between 3,333 and 112,000, with their best estimate at 15,420 by the end of May.

I'll go out on a limb: If we are at 3,333 by the end of May (the most extreme scenario they project), then we go back to "normal" by July/August.
If we are at 15,420 by end of May, then we are on track to rip off our masks by the fall.
If we are in the 40,000 - 100,000 range by the end of May... then I don't see how we get out of this before the end of the year.

Let’s table this and see where we are in a week or so, I really think it was weather issues.

 

[GoofGoof]

Facts matter. They didn't come close to their December and early goals. And we are talking about Fauci and government statements, not statements from Pfizer and Moderna. But if you really want to talk about Pfizer and Moderna's projections...

"In an earnings call on Oct. 23, Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla stated that the company had already made “hundreds of thousands” of doses of its Covid-19 vaccine candidate; he expects to have 30 million to 40 million doses ready to deliver to the US by the end of the year"

Did Pfizer deliver 30 million to 40 million doses to the US by the end of 2020? No... nowhere close to that.

But let's look more recent... even after the EUA's... look at what the CDC was saying..

"Nancy Messonnier, director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, estimated at a Dec. 20 meeting of a CDC advisory panel that there would be 40 million doses delivered in December, 60 million in January and 100 million in February. "

So, just 10 weeks ago, the CDC was announcing we would have 200 million doses by end of February.
Today is the end of February, are we ahead of 200 million doses or are be we behind?

Spoiler alert: we are at 75 million doses. So we are 125 million doses behind where we thought we would be, by the end of December.
So even if we have an excellent March... we won't hit 200 million total doses until April... 1-2 months behind.

Pfizer revised that estimate down on November 9 before EUA was issued. The earnings call was in October before they revised it down. As I said, since EUA they have not reduced their targets. At the time they reduced the doses that would be available in 2020 they still confirmed they expected to deliver their first 100M doses by the end of Q1 2021. That was never changed except when they increased it to 120M doses. Everything else you are listing is government talk, mostly from the Trump administration around election time. You specifically said “Pfizer and Moderna fell way behind their goals they were listing in December and early January” I stand by my statement that that is not factually accurate at all.

Supply-Chain Obstacles Led to Last Month’s Cut to Pfizer’s Covid-19 Vaccine-Rollout Target

Pfizer and partner BioNTech had hoped to roll out 100 million vaccines world-wide by the end of this year, a plan that was reduced to 50 million last month, highlighting the challenges drug makers face in rapidly building supply chains to meet the high demand.

www.wsj.com

 

[havoc315]

Let’s table this and see where we are in a week or so, I really think it was weather issues.

Maybe. Good chance it’s just statistical noise.
I’d want to look at hospitalizations over the next 1-2 weeks.

 

[bdearl41]

So if people didn't suddenly start dying from COVID last year, what did they suddenly start dying of? Because a lot more people died last year then in a average year.

My point is many deaths that really weren’t caused by Covid were labeled as such. Pretty much was told so by the director of the third largest hospital in my state

 

[bdearl41]

I think I recently stood up for you...but we gotta get that fever that’s heating up your brain under control.



So after a year of politicizing every single thing said to benefit one grifter...you’re searching for more politicos under the cushions now.

How many scientists do you actually know/talk to???



Hmmm...it seems you’ve fallen victim too...

So I think you’re mistaking me for a anti masker trump voter which I’m not. I’m simply pointing out this fear mongering is and has been outrageous.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Actually... they have been pretty darn accurate in most cases, especially more recently.
Headlines often broadcast their most extreme outlying forecasts. The actual results in the US have consistently fallen within the range predicted by IHME. As with any such statistical models, the models improve over time and become more accurate over time.

For example, they were accurately predicting a holiday season spike in August. And that cases would fall in January by October. That’s pretty good modeling for something that’s never been modeled and has been extremely unpredictable.