Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[havoc315]

JnJ is going to be approved and we obviously both agree on that. It’s not dishonest to say that we have 3 highly effective vaccines. Again, your desire to argue just to argue. You do you on that.

You said there were three APPROVED vaccines, that was false.

I'm going to bold all your repeated lies in your post, where you try to put words in my mouth that literally are nothing like anything I've ever said...

All of the experts agree 100% with me that the vaccines we have are highly effective in preventing hospitalization and death. You are disagreeing with me and with them and saying they are not. I chose to side with the experts, the FDA, the CDC and the manufacturers.

Dare you to find any place where I ever said vaccines are not highly effective at preventing hospitalizations and death. You won't find it -- because I never said any such thing.

No, I choose to side with the experts. There is no question is is "highly effective" in preventing hospitalizations an death. In fact, I said that the Pfizer vaccine is thus far, 98.9% effective preventing hospitalization and death in Israel. I argued that there are still lots of unknowns -- and the experts agree with me there. I also argued that it is NOT 99.99985% effective at preventing hospitalization, which was being claimed... Because again, facts matter.

Nowhere have I talked about being in a hurry, that’s your label for doing things in a reasonable timeframe. Nobody here is saying get rid of all Covid protocols now. I clearly said a few pages back that IF the vaccine rollout is on time and the manufacturers meet their targets and IF enough people agree to get the vaccine it is POSSIBLE we could see cases lowered enough by as early as this summer to see a lot of Covid restrictions reduced or gone.

So why are you arguing with me? I have repeatedly said I expect to see Covid restrictions reduced. But you will not find a single expert anywhere who believes we should have maskless large gatherings before later summer/fall.

I am not willing to right now on Feb 24 commit to no changes in Covid protocols for an additional 4-6 months

Thought you said you're not in a hurry.. and there you go being in a hurry again...
Not a single person has said there will be "no changes" to Covid protocols over the next 4-6 months. I've said the opposite -- I said I expect gradual changes.

The question is whether ALL Covid protocols will be gone.

Again, whether you Goofgoof are personally willing to commit is irrelevant. And my opinion is equally irrelevant. But every expert agrees that we cannot have large maskless gatherings for at least the next 6 months. Whether you are personally willing to commit to that isn't relevant.

after everyone has the vaccine in case that May save an extra 50,000 people (a number that has no basis in science). We have no way of knowing that’s the case at all right now.

I picked a number for illustration purposes. I'm sure I could find estimates from the experts -- Regardless of the exact number, we know that failure to reach herd immunity will cost many many more lives. Whether it's 5,000 or 50,000 or 100,000, I don't claim to know.

So based on that plan if the vaccine rollout is complete by July (Biden’s goal) we have no reduction of protocols and no changes to life until between November and January 2022.

Stop with that ridiculous strawman. When have I EVER said there would be NO REDUCTION in protocols until November - January?!?!?

I've never said ANYTHING even CLOSE to that.

So for the last time, here is what I've been saying and will continue to say:
We will have ONGOING reductions in protocols --- We are ALREADY reducing Covid restrictions and that will continue. It will continue in February... March....April.. and ongoing!! I never ever said there would be NO REDUCTION until November - January.
I further said, Covid restrictions won't be ELIMINATED until at least late summer / fall. (Since when is November late summer?). And that's what EVERY expert has said.

I’d rather see how the rollout goes and if it’s successful then act accordingly. It’s foolish to set an arbitrary 4-6 additional month goal just in case.

The goal is not an arbitrary time frame. The goal is when we reach herd immunity. We know, absent a miracle like rain drops turning into vaccine, that won't happen before late summer. Might happen as early as August/September, might be longer.

People are not going to buy into that and if the vaccines works as expected it won’t be necessary. Remember that we don’t need to wait until every person has received both shots to see the start of the downward trend in cases and the beginning of the reduction in mitigations.

If you chose to avoid public contact for an extra 4-6 months for no good reason that’s your call.

Dang.. more lies. I believe I said an extra 4-6 weeks.... If we hit vaccine targets by late July, we could see herd immunity arise by early September....
And where did I say ANYTHING about avoiding public contact? I have public contact almost every day! So stop lying...
I said, an extra 4-6 weeks with no maskless large gatherings. And the "good reason" is to save thousands of lives.

The general public won’t do it and businesses like WDW certainly won’t require it. Many people who have faithfully followed the public health recommendations all along will not go along with that either.

Well, we already know that WDW likely WILL require it, unless they are lying. Chapek already said masks and social distancing will "no doubt" be in place for the rest of the year.

 

[jmp85]

 

[havoc315]

Yes. As we've seen with Pfizer and Moderna, these percentages become more meaningful a month after shots have gone into a million arms. The Catch-22 all along is that we can't wait for stronger data to put shots into arms--thus the EUA before full FDA approval, which I presume will start occurring over the summer.

Agreed, that's why we are dealing with "Emergency Use Authorization" instead of regular approval. We are learning as we go. There are lots of questions that won't be answered for months and even years.

But we know enough already to know that the vaccines are extremely valuable... and with a speedy vaccination program, we can get to herd immunity or get close enough to "live with" Covid.

 

[mmascari]

why would we care about spread if everyone has access to a vaccine that protects them at incredibly high levels from hospitalization or death? This is just becoming ridiculous at this point

I would have no issue with a vaccine passport but I understand it won’t happen here. I am hopeful it won’t be needed. For arguments sake if all Americans who want the vaccine have access to it by July (I think sooner, but that’s Biden’s goal) then I see no reason the parks can’t return to mostly normal soon after. We can’t expect Disney as a business or 80% of the public to continue to act as If the vaccines don’t exist for the benefit of the 20% who won’t get it. They will become naturally immune soon enough anyway. Some percent of people who are vaccinated won’t be immune but even they won’t likely get seriously ill if infected since the vaccines are highly effective in preventing death and hospitalization.

There were 15 pages (at least for me) between my prior post and this one. With most of them arguing numbers and effectiveness of the vaccine. I'm quoting myself here to reiterate There is no direct relationship between someone getting the vaccine and stopping mitigations. It doesn't matter what any of the vaccine numbers are with regard to eliminating mitigations for vaccinated people.

Those numbers matter for how well the vaccine is at reducing community spread, assuming enough people take it. I think everyone here agrees that if enough people are vaccinated with any of the vaccines, there will be a huge reduction in community spread.

There is no direct relationship between someone getting the vaccine and stopping mitigations. Neither when enough is available or when an individual gets vaccinated.

The relationship is when community spread is reduced enough, then mitigation efforts can be reduced and stopped.

Enough vaccine distribution should cause community spread to drop, which will then allow mitigation to stop. It's a step removed between them, and we better hope that enough people are convinced to vaccinate that we get the reduction.

If we want to fight about when different businesses, restaurants, schools, whatever are going to drop mitigation A or B, we should argue about daily new case counts (per 100,000), daily deaths, or positivity rates, along with what mitigations drop with each metric at different levels.

I think we'll need relatively low daily new case counts, which will lead to low daily deaths, along with I think we'll need a very low positivity rate. My guess is somewhere below 150 daily deaths nationally, and a positivity below 1% for all mitigations to be gone. But, I expect different things will be dropped before that, as long as after they're dropped the metrics continue to trend down. My guess is capacity restrictions will go before masks, including opening anything that's still closed. Debate on which should be removed first as the metrics trend down and at what levels would be interesting too.

If we want to place bets on when Disney does different stuff, that might be fun in a dark comedy sort of morbid way. Anyone want to place a bet one when social distance in ride queues ends? Above or below 500 daily deaths or 5% positivity? I would certainly put removing this restriction ahead of removing masks or opening buffets.

what is the end goal then (in your opinion)? If someone doesn’t want to get a vaccine, they also probably don’t want to take other measures, like masks or staying home, to reduce spread, and the virus would continue to circulate regardless. Not trying to argue, I’m genuinely curious. If that’s the case, how do you see things returning to normal? Or do you not?

I see the end goal as community spread reduced to a manageable level. As stated in my quote, somewhere less than 150 daily deaths nationally, less than 1% positivity (because we're identifying, isolating, tracing, and testing), and all restrictions removed by then. With different restrictions being removed in sequence as the community spread metrics improve. The vaccine as a tool, should reduce spread on it's own to make the rest of that possible even if everyone doesn't take it. If there's so little vaccine use that it doesn't reduce spread, we may never get back to normal.

I’ve been saying for months now that once it is as dangerous as the flu, masks can go away. People have this belief that it must be masks until there are zero cases, which will never happen given how widespread the virus is now. We will be keeping the virus around.

That's number. You could have pick car crashes, or crushed by vending machine. I understood that you didn't mean it was the same as the flu. From today's New York Times newsletter, let's call this 40,000 deaths a year, roughly 110 daily.

 

[GoofGoof]

Dare you to find any place where I ever said vaccines are not highly effective at preventing hospitalizations and death. You won't find it -- because I never said any such thing.

You are right...I couldn’t find one place...there were 2

Be very cautious with that last line. A lot of people are incorrectly stating that the vaccines are so great at preventing serious disease.

among vaccinated people who were still infected, their odds of avoiding hospitalization were only slightly better than people who weren’t vaccinated.

 

[Chi84]

You are right...I couldn’t find one place...there were 2

If you think facts and reasoning are going to make a dent with some people here, you're taking optimism to new heights This may be one of those times when the less said, the better.

 

[correcaminos]

@jmp85 just for the record that was not a sarcastic laugh at all, but really your post made me laugh. I loved it!

If you think facts and reasoning are going to make a dent here, you're taking optimism to new heights This may be one of those times when the less said, the better.

I don't disagree. It's why I mostly stopped replying to certain posts

 

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out - there were 127 new reported deaths, along with 2 Non-Florida Resident deaths.

 

[DCBaker]

Current Florida vaccine report -

 

[Mr Ferret 75]

 

[GoofGoof]

On the vaccination front, it appears that another weapon may be added to our arsenal as early as some time in April. Novavax expects results from its clinical trial by the start of April and if the results are positive their plan is to apply for EUA short.y after. Their UK trial showed 89% efficacy so another highly effective vaccine in the mix possibly by May timeframe. This would be a great insurance policy against possible manufacturing delays from any of the other 3 manufacturers. They haven’t said how many doses would be available when, but the US has purchased 100M doses under the Warp Speed program.

Novavax expects U.S. trial data for COVID-19 vaccine at start of April

"We are expecting results right in the beginning of quarter two and shortly thereafter we will be filing for EUA (in U.S.)," he said at a Washington Post online event. The Novavax executive said the vaccine has shown a great "safety profile" in UK trials and the company might ask the U.S. Food...

www.yahoo.com

edit: @MansionButler84 called this out already earlier.

 

[havoc315]

You are right...I couldn’t find one place...there were 2

No... You can't read... and decided to only post PART of my full statement.

My FULL statement:

"and in fact... it’s pretty close to that.. 98.9% fewer hospitalizations.

So what that shows is that infections were wayyyy down. But among vaccinated people who were still infected, their odds of avoiding hospitalization were only slightly better than people who weren’t vaccinated."

Wow.... I said it showed 98.9% fewer hospitalizations!!! Wow.. I guess I was saying it was very effective at reducing hospitalizations!! I said it reduced hospitalizations by 98.9%!!!!

The argument was solely about WITHIN the 1.5% who get infected. Among that 1% (read along -- those who were still infected) -- for those few hundred people, their "odds of avoiding hospitalization were only slightly better than people who weren’t vaccinated"

Again, facts matter -- I said it was highly effective -- With 98.9% fewer hospitalizations and 98.5% fewer cases!!!

Let's see... In response to your lies.. I said:
"Dare you to find any place where I ever said vaccines are not highly effective at preventing hospitalizations and death. You won't find it -- because I never said any such thing.

No, I choose to side with the experts. There is no question is is "highly effective" in preventing hospitalizations an death. In fact, I said that the Pfizer vaccine is thus far, 98.9% effective preventing hospitalization and death in Israel. I argued that there are still lots of unknowns -- and the experts agree with me there. I also argued that it is NOT 99.99985% effective at preventing hospitalization, which was being claimed... Because again, facts matter."

Wow... so thanks! You went and PROVED that you were lying and I was telling the truth --- Because you went right to the post where I said it was 98.9% effective!!!!

 

[SamusAranX]

Guys, Groundhog Day was over a week ago

 

[Touchdown]

No... You can't read... and decided to only post PART of my full statement.

My FULL statement:

"and in fact... it’s pretty close to that.. 98.9% fewer hospitalizations.

So what that shows is that infections were wayyyy down. But among vaccinated people who were still infected, their odds of avoiding hospitalization were only slightly better than people who weren’t vaccinated."

Wow.... I said it showed 98.9% fewer hospitalizations!!! Wow.. I guess I was saying it was very effective at reducing hospitalizations!! I said it reduced hospitalizations by 98.9%!!!!

The argument was solely about WITHIN the 1.5% who get infected. Among that 1% (read along -- those who were still infected) -- for those few hundred people, their "odds of avoiding hospitalization were only slightly better than people who weren’t vaccinated"

Again, facts matter -- I said it was highly effective -- With 98.9% fewer hospitalizations and 98.5% fewer cases!!!

Let's see... In response to your lies.. I said:
"Dare you to find any place where I ever said vaccines are not highly effective at preventing hospitalizations and death. You won't find it -- because I never said any such thing.

No, I choose to side with the experts. There is no question is is "highly effective" in preventing hospitalizations an death. In fact, I said that the Pfizer vaccine is thus far, 98.9% effective preventing hospitalization and death in Israel. I argued that there are still lots of unknowns -- and the experts agree with me there. I also argued that it is NOT 99.99985% effective at preventing hospitalization, which was being claimed... Because again, facts matter."

Wow... so thanks! You went and PROVED that you were lying and I was telling the truth --- Because you went right to the post where I said it was 98.9% effective!!!!

If you think it’s highly effective why are you advocating those of us who have completed their course not change their routine?

The CDC will be releasing new guidance soon that will relax their recommendations yet you advocate not changing your routine. It’s one or the other.

I am perfectly willing to risk a 0.01% chance of getting severe Covid that I will lessen further by wearing a mask or practicing social distancing. Ditto the 1 in 100 (again lessened by a mask or distancing) chance of catching symptomatic mild Covid. That is an extremely acceptable risk to me.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Guys, Groundhog Day was over a week ago

There’s only one day on the calendar in a covid thread.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

J&J online next week...240,000,000 Doses On track in the US by April...

As Ice Cube would say: “today was a good day”

 

[Touchdown]

Last I checked this is the 11th month of March 2020.

 

[Miss Bella]

All of summer 2022 is coming soon, including Wish.

They usually release itinerary’s on Thursday with Platinum booking on Monday. Maybe they’ll be released tomorrow that would make sense.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

J&J online next week...240,000,000 Doses On track in the US by April...

As Ice Cube would say: “today was a good day”

Fauci says I can't go out until Christmas.

 

[Patcheslee]

Can we designate Feb 29th-31st as days for further discussion of efficacy?