Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
Perhaps...but not the only thing going on. The chart says what it says...no need to really question the trendlines too much.
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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Perhaps...but not the only thing going on. The chart says what it says...no need to really question the trendlines too much.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
New CDC rules on people who have been vaccinated are expected soon according to Fauci. He expects the CDC will relax the stringency of the recommendations for anyone vaccinated. Could be a first step towards relaxing some of the rules at WDW once the majority of people have been vaccinated. From the start Disney management has said they will follow recommendations from public health officials and the CDC.
MSN
www.msn.com
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Not sure if this has been discussed here already, but an interesting read:
www.theatlantic.com
Keep in mind that it’s one guy’s opinion and we don’t know if he is right...but we also don’t know he is wrong either. One thing I am leaning towards fully agreeing with is that even without formal herd immunity there’s a good chance that case numbers look very good by Memorial Day and that many restrictions are loosened as a result. Getting the summer back and having a full range of activities is a possibility even if cases aren’t at zero. Positive news on the vaccine distribution front today confirming the manufacturers targets. There’s an excellent chance we have enough vaccine for anyone who wants it by May/June and if that’s the case we should see some pretty big improvements this summer for travel and dining and group activities. Very good prospects for WDW as long as enough people get the vaccine and on that front hesitancy is dropping too.
A Quite Possibly Wonderful Summer
Families will gather. Restaurants will reopen. People will travel. The pandemic may feel like it’s behind us—even if it’s not.
www.theatlantic.com
Keep in mind that it’s one guy’s opinion and we don’t know if he is right...but we also don’t know he is wrong either. One thing I am leaning towards fully agreeing with is that even without formal herd immunity there’s a good chance that case numbers look very good by Memorial Day and that many restrictions are loosened as a result. Getting the summer back and having a full range of activities is a possibility even if cases aren’t at zero. Positive news on the vaccine distribution front today confirming the manufacturers targets. There’s an excellent chance we have enough vaccine for anyone who wants it by May/June and if that’s the case we should see some pretty big improvements this summer for travel and dining and group activities. Very good prospects for WDW as long as enough people get the vaccine and on that front hesitancy is dropping too.
Love this. Thank you for sharingNot sure if this has been discussed here already, but an interesting read:
A Quite Possibly Wonderful Summer
Families will gather. Restaurants will reopen. People will travel. The pandemic may feel like it’s behind us—even if it’s not.
Keep in mind that it’s one guy’s opinion and we don’t know if he is right...but we also don’t know he is wrong either. One thing I am leaning towards fully agreeing with is that even without formal herd immunity there’s a good chance that case numbers look very good by Memorial Day and that many restrictions are loosened as a result. Getting the summer back and having a full range of activities is a possibility even if cases aren’t at zero. Positive news on the vaccine distribution front today confirming the manufacturers targets. There’s an excellent chance we have enough vaccine for anyone who wants it by May/June and if that’s the case we should see some pretty big improvements this summer for travel and dining and group activities. Very good prospects for WDW as long as enough people get the vaccine and on that front hesitancy is dropping too.
Disney Experience
Well-Known Member
For prioritization in countries with limited vaccines(Currently every country) here is another discriminator that can be used for vaccine prioritization. (Though logistically testing for this over a broad population would be difficult and or expensive).
www.nature.com
Deletion of the NKG2C receptor encoding KLRC2 gene and HLA-E variants are risk factors for severe COVID-19 - Genetics in Medicine
Host genetic variants may contribute to severity of COVID-19. NKG2C+ NK cells are potent antiviral effector cells, potentially limiting the extent of SARS-CoV-2 infections. NKG2C is an activating NK cell receptor encoded by the KLRC2 gene, which binds to HLA-E on infected cells leading to NK...
www.nature.com
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
I've got some news for the great Dr. Fauci. If you don't let vaccinated people go back to something close to normal in the near future, fewer people will be motivated to be vaccinated. People who are scared to get the virus will get the vaccine no matter what. People who are in the low risk categories and ambivalent won't be motivated to get vaccinated if there is no personal benefit to getting vaccinated.
I mean, really? We need approval from the CDC for fully vaccinated people to gather with other fully vaccinated people? If they want to get to herd immunity, get to work on the vaccine passport system and allow people who are fully vaccinated and beyond the two week waiting period (or whatever it will be for J&J) to have a pass to go back to normal.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
That's great and all but if you have to test everybody to find out who should be prioritized, by the time you find the people to prioritize you'll have enough doses to vaccinate everybody.For prioritization in countries with limited vaccines(Currently every country) here is another discriminator that can be used for vaccine prioritization. (Though logistically testing for this over a broad population would be difficult and or expensive).
Deletion of the NKG2C receptor encoding KLRC2 gene and HLA-E variants are risk factors for severe COVID-19 - Genetics in Medicine
Host genetic variants may contribute to severity of COVID-19. NKG2C+ NK cells are potent antiviral effector cells, potentially limiting the extent of SARS-CoV-2 infections. NKG2C is an activating NK cell receptor encoded by the KLRC2 gene, which binds to HLA-E on infected cells leading to NK...
GoofGoof
Premium Member
People are going to do whatever they want, that’s been the way for the past 12 months. CDC recommendations are a big deal for a business like WDW. If they revise those recommendations that’s a big first step for anyone following them for their business.
I don’t disagree with your sentiment on the vaccine rollout. The best way to encourage everyone to get the vaccine as soon as they are eligible is to talk up all the things you can do after getting it. I see no benefit in these doomsday predictions of no return to normal until Christmas or masks through 2022. If things go wrong maybe that happens, but I prefer to highlight the possibilities if everything goes right or mostly right.
Israel is a good lesson right now, well on their way to having half the population vaccinated. Now, they need to reach the less willing people.
They are using a vaccine passport as both carrot and stick. People who are vaccinated can go to the gym, movies, bars, etc. If you’re not vaccinated, you can’t.
That’s a great incentive towards vaccination. Normalcy — but only if you’re vaccinated.
But I suspect such a strict vaccine passport would be too controversial here.
Wonder what the members of this forum thing. Would you support WDW requiring a vaccination passport (confirmed by a CDC database) for entry, if it meant getting back to full normalcy inside the park?
Or rather have the park “open to all”... with “restrictions for all” for an additional 6 months?
correcaminos
Well-Known Member
For marginalize people? Yeah no, the trends have to do with trust. Please don't act like you know when you haven't spent a lot of time convincing loved ones to take it.
I plan on getting vaccinated so a passport situation wouldn’t hurt me per se, but I don’t like the idea of trying to force someone to put something in their body against their will by limiting their activities.
Not sure if this has been discussed here already, but an interesting read:
A Quite Possibly Wonderful Summer
Families will gather. Restaurants will reopen. People will travel. The pandemic may feel like it’s behind us—even if it’s not.
Keep in mind that it’s one guy’s opinion and we don’t know if he is right...but we also don’t know he is wrong either. One thing I am leaning towards fully agreeing with is that even without formal herd immunity there’s a good chance that case numbers look very good by Memorial Day and that many restrictions are loosened as a result. Getting the summer back and having a full range of activities is a possibility even if cases aren’t at zero. Positive news on the vaccine distribution front today confirming the manufacturers targets. There’s an excellent chance we have enough vaccine for anyone who wants it by May/June and if that’s the case we should see some pretty big improvements this summer for travel and dining and group activities. Very good prospects for WDW as long as enough people get the vaccine and on that front hesitancy is dropping too.
I agree that numbers will likely be greatly improved by June.
And I agree that it will likely lead to a lot of rule relaxation. (Which is already starting to happen).
Now, thinking entirely selfishly, this is both good and bad.
I WANT normalcy. I’m planning on going to WDW in August, I’d love for it to be “normal.” I’d love to start going to restaurants and movies again. My employment has suffered in this pandemic — would love for it to return to full.
But at the same time, understanding some of the science and risk, I must realize the risk of normalizing too soon, too fast. Which will run the risk of unnecessarily prolonging the pandemic.
So if we normalize too fast, part of me will be thrilled. But my brain says it’s better to pace our selves and get to herd immunity faster. So if the CDC (and WDW) opt to go very slow, part of me will be groaning but I’ll also know it’s for the best.
Before vaccine is readily available, it wouldn't be fair.
After it's readily available? That's different. Won't happen here though.
I mean, the second half of this comment is a fantastic example of you going out of your way to say “but wait, too fast!!” in response to anyone who is optimistic about the future. You seem obsessed with people stopping precautions prematurely, when no one suggested that.
Understandable. But not exactly a foreign concept. We already require lminors to get vaccinated to enroll in school, which is legally required. Vaccinations are already legally required for some travel. So activities are already limited if you refuse to vaccine. Question is how much you can turn up that dial.
So we already limit people
correcaminos
Well-Known Member
I saw this one earlier and was given some hope. Would be nice!Not sure if this has been discussed here already, but an interesting read:
A Quite Possibly Wonderful Summer
Families will gather. Restaurants will reopen. People will travel. The pandemic may feel like it’s behind us—even if it’s not.
Keep in mind that it’s one guy’s opinion and we don’t know if he is right...but we also don’t know he is wrong either. One thing I am leaning towards fully agreeing with is that even without formal herd immunity there’s a good chance that case numbers look very good by Memorial Day and that many restrictions are loosened as a result. Getting the summer back and having a full range of activities is a possibility even if cases aren’t at zero. Positive news on the vaccine distribution front today confirming the manufacturers targets. There’s an excellent chance we have enough vaccine for anyone who wants it by May/June and if that’s the case we should see some pretty big improvements this summer for travel and dining and group activities. Very good prospects for WDW as long as enough people get the vaccine and on that front hesitancy is dropping too.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
We can agree to disagree on that. Giving honest and informed opinions on when you think it’s possible for things to occur isn’t counting your chickens and it’s not a big risk. You simply say that IF we get the vaccine doses as projected by the manufacturers and IF people follow mitigation and protocols now and IF they agree to get the vaccine when it’s their turn then we may get to a level of cases where there can be a relaxing of restrictions as soon as this summer. That’s not high risk to say it’s an aspirational goal based on a number of big IFs. We all come together and do our part now and if we do the reward is a very positive one. I much prefer that to some intentionally negative projection like a possible return to normal by Christmas or masks through 2022. We can do better than that. Very disappointed to see that narrative beimg pushed.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Like I said, we have no way of knowing what the progression of cases will be going forward or what number we need to reach herd immunity or even how soon after reaching that number will cases drop off. It’s possible that the vaccine rollout stumbles or stalls and it’s possible a new variant or some other situation makes the situation worse, but it’s also possible we see a major improvement in a few months that continues. I think the plan should continue to be to react to the situation on the ground. If cases dictate it we reduce restrictions and once the vaccine is available to anyone who wants it hopefully most restrictions should go away shortly after. I have no issue with waiting for the vaccine rollout, but I have no interest in keeping restrictions around unnecessarily just to be cautious either. It’s threading the needle on timing but I think we have to do it that way vs just waiting until we are sure.
I see no harm in erring on the side of caution. Not talking about wearing masks and restricting capacity unnecessarily for years. But I see no harm in saying, “cases are way down... let’s hold steady for a month... then remove a bunch of restrictions. Then hold steady for a month, then go back to normal.”
We’re in new territory. Nothing wrong with showing some caution.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I would have no issue with a vaccine passport but I understand it won’t happen here. I am hopeful it won’t be needed. For arguments sake if all Americans who want the vaccine have access to it by July (I think sooner, but that’s Biden’s goal) then I see no reason the parks can’t return to mostly normal soon after. We can’t expect Disney as a business or 80% of the public to continue to act as If the vaccines don’t exist for the benefit of the 20% who won’t get it. They will become naturally immune soon enough anyway. Some percent of people who are vaccinated won’t be immune but even they won’t likely get seriously ill if infected since the vaccines are highly effective in preventing death and hospitalization.
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