Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[havoc315]

I’d hold off on the herd immunity planning. The Johns Hopkins assessment was interesting...until the Wall Street journal ran with it. The term “ulterior motives” was invented for the WSJ.

Now that may be true...but the current prediction of vaccine availability and distribution difficulties doesn’t point to April. July seems like a better benchmark.

I think it’s all but assured kids will be recommended too...adding another 60 mill to the pile.

July seems to be a realistic benchmark for when we get to a level of 70%-ish vaccination.

But even then, herd immunity isn't a switch. The way we get to herd immunity is that with most people vaccinated, the virus can find fewer and fewer people to infect. So with each reproductive cycle... fewer and fewer infections. Until it's all but gone.
If you instantly vaccinated 85% of the population today with JNJ, and it took instant effect... it would still be a few weeks to months before you reached herd immunity.

 

[disneycp]

That's not (at least in my case) wanting masks to be around. That's pointing out that it's the wrong thing to measure. Masks, and all kinds of other mitigations, will go away when community spread is reduced to low.

Vaccine availability isn't the correct measure. Other than the assumption that once the vaccine is available to enough people, that should reduce community spread. If we don't get enough vaccine usage, not just availability, spread isn't going to be reduced. We'll be back to looking for other ways to reduce spread.

People should set their expectations and metric watching on the correct thing to avoid disappointment. (Beyond my disappointment that we'll probably reschedule our trip again, as I'm not confident the FL stats are going to improve enough in time.)

why would we care about spread if everyone has access to a vaccine that protects them at incredibly high levels from hospitalization or death? This is just becoming ridiculous at this point

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That's not (at least in my case) wanting masks to be around. That's pointing out that it's the wrong thing to measure. Masks, and all kinds of other mitigations, will go away when community spread is reduced to low.

Vaccine availability isn't the correct measure. Other than the assumption that once the vaccine is available to enough people, that should reduce community spread. If we don't get enough vaccine usage, not just availability, spread isn't going to be reduced. We'll be back to looking for other ways to reduce spread.

People should set their expectations and metric watching on the correct thing to avoid disappointment. (Beyond my disappointment that we'll probably reschedule our trip again, as I'm not confident the FL stats are going to improve enough in time.)

I’m afraid that the very people
Complaining constantly about the mitigation will be the ones that extend them.

Here’s how that goes: the virus continues to spread in the science denier “pockets”...and those that followed the guidelines and got vaccinated will have to “help” and keep
Going...because that’s what the responsible people who actually have read the constitution and understand this isn’t addressed always get saddled with.

Dumb is easier.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Nonsensical and terribly insensitive.

In this case (not all health situations), the resistance to masks appear to be mostly - like high 90’s - due to predeterminate stances or fears in the head.

I normally wouldn’t even touch that label.

 

[danlb_2000]

there are multiple examples in this very thread recently of people predicting mask use goes by the wayside once everyone has an opportunity to be vaccinated and someone else immediately popping up to say “masks don’t hurt anyone and removing them too early will be the chaos!” I’m sorry but if a vaccine isn’t an end for mask use then what on earth is? What is the end goal here...?

You can feel free to dig through the posts here if you so choose.

The end goal is to get the virus under control so masks aren't needed anymore. Vaccines are just a tool to get us there.

 

[Parker in NYC]

I’m afraid that the very people
Complaining constantly about the mitigation will be the ones that extend them.

Here’s how that goes: the virus continues to spread in the science denier “pockets”...and those that followed the guidelines and got vaccinated will have to “help” and keep
Going...because that’s what the responsible people who actually have read the constitution and understand this isn’t addressed always get saddled with.

Dumb is easier.

This mentality's been here in this very forum for a year. Spinning round and round and round... in the Circle Game. I'd put another word between Circle and Game but I'm sure you can figure it out.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

why would we care about spread if everyone has access to a vaccine that protects them at incredibly high levels from hospitalization or death? This is just becoming ridiculous at this point

No...this is the same from the start. Including the lack of required patience.

A pandemic is stopped by eliminating the spread/carriers from the largest proportion of the population possible.

I get your point about vaccines. But these doctors know the problem with vaccines: a large percentage of people won’t do it. For many reasons but the common ones are fear and lack of info
So last spring far too many people wanted to “power through it”...to get back to the beach/bar or get their fast passes back...

Now this spring the same sect are likely to prevent it from happening with vaccines.

Squeaky wheels get the grease AND wreck the cars.

The doctors know this...they can’t be casual about anything...because people are DUMB.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The end goal is to get the virus under control so masks aren't needed anymore. Vaccines are just a tool to get us there.

Indeed. And really staying apart while the vaccines make their rounds would accelerate controlling the whole game. Have to play offense AND defense

This mentality's been here in this very forum for a year. Spinning round and round and round... in the Circle Game. I'd put another word between Circle and Game but I'm sure you can figure it out.

...wait...I’m not following...can you draw me a picture?

 

[_caleb]

This mentality's been here in this very forum for a year. Spinning round and round and round... in the Circle Game. I'd put another word between Circle and Game but I'm sure you can figure it out.

Yep. The same people predicting that the virus was overblown, that people (like you) were overreacting, that Disney would never close the parks, that the virus was going to just disappear, that the parks would reopen with no restrictions, that people wouldn't tolerate wearing masks, etc. are now all declaring that once they're vaccinated, they'll be "over" the pandemic regardless of whether the pandemic is actually over.

The same people who pushed hard for everything to reopen (prematurely) are doing it again.

 

[Parker in NYC]

...wait...I’m not following...can you draw me a picture?

 

[danlb_2000]

why would we care about spread if everyone has access to a vaccine that protects them at incredibly high levels from hospitalization or death? This is just becoming ridiculous at this point

One of the big reasons is that if the virus continues to spread you risk more mutations and you might end up with a version that starts evading the vaccine and prior immunity. The more spread the greater the chance of that happening.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Yep. The same people predicting that the virus was overblown, that people (like you) were overreacting, that Disney would never close the parks, that the virus was going to just disappear, that the parks would reopen with no restrictions, that people wouldn't tolerate wearing masks, etc. are now all declaring that once they're vaccinated, they'll be "over" the pandemic regardless of whether the pandemic is actually over.

The same people who pushed hard for everything to reopen (prematurely) are doing it again.

Folks said the internet shouldn't be taken personally. Well, this thread gave me more than a few breakdowns.

 

[disneycp]

One of the big reasons is that if the virus continues to spread you risk more mutations and you might end up with a version that starts evading the vaccine and prior immunity. The more spread the greater the chance of that happening.

what is the end goal then (in your opinion)? If someone doesn’t want to get a vaccine, they also probably don’t want to take other measures, like masks or staying home, to reduce spread, and the virus would continue to circulate regardless. Not trying to argue, I’m genuinely curious. If that’s the case, how do you see things returning to normal? Or do you not?

 

[havoc315]

why would we care about spread if everyone has access to a vaccine that protects them at incredibly high levels from hospitalization or death? This is just becoming ridiculous at this point

Because, this “incredibly high level of protection” is entirely misperception. We have almost NO IDEA how well any of the vaccines will protect against hospitalization and death from new variants and over a prolonged period of time.

We do know there is some good level of protection over a short period of time as to the previously dominant variants.
We are also confident that if enough people vaccinate, we will eventually get to herd immunity. And herd immunity will get you to virtually 100% protection.

So... just take your personal vaccine... rip off your mask, and get some level of protection between 50-95% for yourself only..

Or take the vaccine... 75% of your neighbors take the vaccine, wear your mask for a few extra weeks... and then EVERYONE gets 99.99% protection. M

Hmmm, seems like a pretty easy decision.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yep. The same people predicting that the virus was overblown, that people (like you) were overreacting, that Disney would never close the parks, that the virus was going to just disappear, that the parks would reopen with no restrictions, that people wouldn't tolerate wearing masks, etc. are now all declaring that once they're vaccinated, they'll be "over" the pandemic regardless of whether the pandemic is actually over.

The same people who pushed hard for everything to reopen (prematurely) are doing it again.

And those people are still wrong...especially those that marched out of here last summer (before starting 3 alias accounts) because they were proven wrong and possibly felt guilt towards spreading falsehoods that cost lives.

...at least I like to think. Because “remorse” is becoming rare and it’s important.

 

[JAKECOTCenter]

I’m optimistic about the 50th being maskless just because supply won’t become an issue anymore going into March and April. Of course there will be hurdles like weather that we’ve seen but opening vaccines up to the public in say April or May will be a matter of people willing to get it rather than lack of the vaccine. That could prompt certain companies to make timelines to loosen restrictions and eventually get back where they were mostly pre-pandemic

 

[havoc315]

And those people are still wrong...especially those that marched out of here last summer (before starting 3 alias accounts) because they were proven wrong and possibly felt guilt towards spreading falsehoods that cost lives.

...at least I like to think. Because “remorse” is becoming rare and it’s important.

Yes, you'd think after being proven wrong again and again, they might finally start to listen to the experts.

 

[havoc315]

I’m optimistic about the 50th being massless just because supply won’t become an issue anymore going into March and April. Of course there will be hurdles like weather that we’ve seen but opening vaccines up to the public in say April or May will be a matter of people willing. And that could prompt certain companies to make timelines to loosen restrictions and eventually get back where they were mostly pre-pandemic

To be honest, I really think October could be maskless. But it's also clear Disney is preparing people for at least a good chance masks will still be in place. Note the recent promotional material for the 50th, explicitly showing everyone wearing masks. A LOT of thought goes into these advertisements. I guarantee you, thought went into whether to portray guests with or without masks. The decision to include masks appears to at least suggest Disney isn't ready to put down a bet that masks will be gone.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I’m optimistic about the 50th being massless just because supply won’t become an issue anymore going into March and April. Of course there will be hurdles like weather that we’ve seen but opening vaccines up to the public in say April or May will be a matter of people willing. And that could prompt certain companies to make timelines to loosen restrictions and eventually get back where they were mostly pre-pandemic

I think it’s really important they try to get everyone in a “vaccine sweep” in May and June. People are just generally more happy in those months and are likely more agreeable to go with it. And it’s the least transmission time of year of infections anyway.

Go door to door...make it a tv show. If there’s one thing we know the people will follow...its Tv misdirection

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Yes, you'd think after being proven wrong again and again, they might finally start to listen to the experts.

Failure of the education system is the culprit there. We don’t care anymore

I wish I was kidding...I am not