Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[havoc315]

Update for the week of 2/14-2/20:

For the week of 2/14-2/20, there were 41,443 new cases, 663,097 new tests and 6.25% new case positivity for the week.

Week over week, this represents a 14.9% decrease in new cases on 10.5% fewer tests with a 4.8% decrease in new case positivity.

The reduction in weekly new tests are likely due to the lower number of symptomatic cases. If you look at the sentinel monitoring of COVID-like illness Emergency Department visits, the trend has been a significant decrease. For the weeks I've been tracking this data, the new case positivity has been 8.37%, 7.2%, 6.57%, 6.25%. Extrapolating, the new case positivity should be under 5% in 3 weeks or so if the trends continue.

Agreed that the reduction in testing is due to the decline in symptomatic infection: People who aren't sick don't rush out to get tested.

But you can't just extrapolate a declining trend in a straight line. I've seen others try to do that and use the trend to claim that the pandemic would be over by June 2020.. by October 2020... etc..

Right now, the big threat is that behavior will be normalized too quickly, creating another spike. Epidemiologists are on the look out for another potential surge in March/April.

The IHME model is showing the potential of an April wave, though their predictive forecast is that we will not ave another wave, though the decline will slow down. (They predict that by April, we will be in a similar place as we were in September 2020, and by summer we can be around 30,000 infections per day)

 

[_caleb]

I'm willing to live with moderate discomfort for the sake of others.

 

[havoc315]

I don't live my life expecting zero risk. I know I can be killed by a reckless driver. I wear my seat belt knowing it's not a guarantee against serious injury or death. But I go out anyway knowing I have a good chance of surviving a crash, and knowing the benefits of continuing to drive outweigh the small risk involved.

I will not be heading out into the world as the only vaccinated person in a sea of the unvaccinated.

I've said all along that I'm wiling to do what needs to be done right up to the point of full vaccine availability. And that's how I'll proceed.

What if those people never get vaccinated? Is this just our "new normal"?

Yes, Fauci and others have made that clear. If not enough people get vaccinated, then masks in crowded places will remain mandatory in lots of places. Likely, vaccinations essentially become mandatory at some point. (I don't believe there will be a law requiring people to get vaccinated. But vaccination may be a requirement to get on a plane... maybe to get on a train, to travel internationally... maybe even required in order to enter WDW).

You certainly can opt to stop wearing a mask in places where it's optional. But it will remain mandatory in lots of places, likely for at least the next 6 months.

 

[Touchdown]

Alas... that’s where there is a misunderstanding. If you’re the only person in group vaccinated... and you jump into the middle of a bunch of infectious people who haven’t been vaccinated, then you’re still at very real risk.

It‘s like if you drive carefully — you may still be killed by a reckless driver. But if everyone drives safely...

The only “safe” interaction is vaccinated person with vaccinated person. There, the risk of dangerous disease is infinitesimally small.

Define risk. Because I think your taking a quote out of context. Could you get the disease in your scenario? Yes you could your chance is roughly 1:20, but if you did it would be a minor course. For now, with only 13% of the US population starting their shots, as a method to encourage mask usage in the majority who haven’t and the virus still spreading in most communities but that’s going to change if/when community spread stops.

Look to the Midwest where this is going to happen first, we reached our peak in November and are roughly 6 weeks ahead of the rest of the country in our declining numbers. More specifically in my state, Wisconsin, it’s now been 10 days since we recorded over a thousand new cases in a day and we only have 8,882 active cases (a case is no longer active if a person dies, the state confirms their symptoms have ceased or it’s been 30 days since diagnosis.) That means only 0.15% of our population currently has confirmed Covid, compare that to first dose vaccine rate of 13.1% (46.6% of the over 65) and 6% fully vaccinated rate (11.2% over 65) and you are nearly 100x more likely to interact with a vaccinated person at random in my state then someone with confirmed Covid. Even if you assume something ridiculous like there being 10x as many people who actually have Covid due to poor testing rates it still means you are 10x more likely to interact with a vaccinated person in my state then someone with Covid.

With the trajectory we’re on, those numbers are only going to grow more impressive as time goes on. If the decline continues at this rate, at least in this state, we should be at a point where masks may not be needed by Memorial Day, but that is only if trends hold.

 

[Turtlekrawl]

I wasn't thinking of it from that angle, but from the one "hey, look, nurses and doctors don't trust the vaccines!"

As long as the residents get vaccinated, then let Darwin take care of the vaccine-wary.

Small sample size, but my group of 52 physicians all got vaccinated. Overwhelming numbers of operating room RNs I work with have gotten vaccinated as well. Have only have conversations with a few who are resistant.
Yet, our hospital system reports a 67% vaccination rate overall (includes docs, nurses, and all other staff). So plenty of resistance, but It really seems to depend on the department here.

 

[danlb_2000]

Alas... that’s where there is a misunderstanding. If you’re the only person in group vaccinated... and you jump into the middle of a bunch of infectious people who haven’t been vaccinated, then you’re still at very real risk.

It‘s like if you drive carefully — you may still be killed by a reckless driver. But if everyone drives safely...

The only “safe” interaction is vaccinated person with vaccinated person. There, the risk of dangerous disease is infinitesimally small.

This is where I disagree. Even if we don't reach herd immunity, the reduction in the number of cases from the vaccines, coupled with the effectivity of the vaccines will make the risk of having a serious outcome small enough that most people will not care. As has been said before, it's very unlikely we will eradicate the virus, but it will be reduced to a low enough level that we will be able to live with it.

 

[drizgirl]

Yes, Fauci and others have made that clear. If not enough people get vaccinated, then masks in crowded places will remain mandatory in lots of places. Likely, vaccinations essentially become mandatory at some point. (I don't believe there will be a law requiring people to get vaccinated. But vaccination may be a requirement to get on a plane... maybe to get on a train, to travel internationally... maybe even required in order to enter WDW).

You certainly can opt to stop wearing a mask in places where it's optional. But it will remain mandatory in lots of places, likely for at least the next 6 months.

Well, I actually don't think the vaccine will be available for all much before 6 months, so I expect that.

Of course I'll follow the rules that are set up. But I'll ditch mine where it's optional once it's available for all. Maybe take one on trips in case I'm not feeling well when I travel by plane.

But honestly, I personally don't think masks will be required in many places once the vaccine is freely available to all. Probably eventually a vaccine requirement in schools and perhaps for some hospital staff (similar to requiring the flu vaccine). But beyond that, I doubt it.

 

[DisneyCane]

Alas... that’s where there is a misunderstanding. If you’re the only person in group vaccinated... and you jump into the middle of a bunch of infectious people who haven’t been vaccinated, then you’re still at very real risk.

It‘s like if you drive carefully — you may still be killed by a reckless driver. But if everyone drives safely...

The only “safe” interaction is vaccinated person with vaccinated person. There, the risk of dangerous disease is infinitesimally small.

This is where I disagree with you and your definition of "very real risk." Based upon the data from cases in FL, for my age range, the case hospitalization rate is 3.2% and the case fatality rate is 0.4%. Realistically, they are both somewhere between one half and one quarter of that number depending on the number of undiscovered asymptomatic cases. Also, I'm at the low end of the range and I'm in good shape with no high risk comorbidities so my personal risk is even lower.

Even if we ignore those, I'm not really at all that much risk without being vaccinated if I jump into the "middle of a bunch of infectious people." If I have been vaccinated with a vaccine that is 90% effective at preventing infection, 95% effective at preventing symptoms and even more effective at preventing serious illness, my "very real risk" will be negligible and lower than many things I do on a daily basis.

I'm also not sure where this "bunch of infectious people" will gather for me to jump into the middle of. Based on the current daily infections per 100,000 people in FL and even tripling it to account for undetected infections, less than 0.5% of the population is likely to be infectious on any given day. It would be quite the stroke of bad luck for you to end up in the middle of a bunch of them in a high (or even moderate) risk environment.

 

[havoc315]

Define risk. Because I think your taking a quote out of context. Could you get the disease in your scenario? Yes you could your chance is roughly 1:20, but if you did it would be a minor course.

And in some cases (thankfully far fewer) it can still be a serious course. And research is still open on the degree to which a vaccinated person can still carry the virus and transmit it to someone who will then have a very serious course. (Unsurprisingly, research is showing vaccine does reduce transmission, but how much is reduces transmission is still a very open question).

So I'll define risk: We need to get to a point where the risk of death from Covid is about the same as the risk of death from measles, mumps, polio, and other vaccinated viruses where we have reached herd immunity.

As we see in this chart in Israel, which is just about the only country with truly widespread vaccination.... even among those who completed their vaccinations in December and January, there are still a number of hospitalizations for severe Covid:

 

[ABQ]

This is where I disagree. Even if we don't reach herd immunity, the reduction in the number of cases from the vaccines, coupled with the effectivity of the vaccines will make the risk of having a serious outcome small enough that most people will not case. As has been said before, it's very unlikely we will eradicate the virus, but it will be reduced to a low enough level that we will be able to live with it.

Which wasn't that the spirit behind the original 15 days to slow the spread? Lockdown, distance, all that, just to flatten the curve and not overwhelm the healthcare system? Not sorry for being selfish and saying that if cases are so low that no hospital system is overwhelmed that I'd rather be back to the lifestyle I had in 2019, not the depression of 2020.

 

[Touchdown]

And in some cases (thankfully far fewer) it can still be a serious course. And research is still open on the degree to which a vaccinated person can still carry the virus and transmit it to someone who will then have a very serious course. (Unsurprisingly, research is showing vaccine does reduce transmission, but how much is reduces transmission is still a very open question).

So I'll define risk: We need to get to a point where the risk of death from Covid is about the same as the risk of death from measles, mumps, polio, and other vaccinated viruses where we have reached herd immunity.

As we see in this chart in Israel, which is just about the only country with truly widespread vaccination.... even among those who completed their vaccinations in December and January, there are still a number of hospitalizations for severe Covid:

View attachment 534337

I disagree with your goal death rate, while it would be great to get that low, that is an unrealistic goal. When we get to typical flu death numbers I will be thrilled and feel we reached our goal.

 

[havoc315]

This is where I disagree with you and your definition of "very real risk." Based upon the data from cases in FL, for my age range, the case hospitalization rate is 3.2% and the case fatality rate is 0.4%. Realistically, they are both somewhere between one half and one quarter of that number depending on the number of undiscovered asymptomatic cases. Also, I'm at the low end of the range and I'm in good shape with no high risk comorbidities so my personal risk is even lower.

Even if we ignore those, I'm not really at all that much risk without being vaccinated if I jump into the "middle of a bunch of infectious people." If I have been vaccinated with a vaccine that is 90% effective at preventing infection, 95% effective at preventing symptoms and even more effective at preventing serious illness, my "very real risk"

This sounds an awful lot like the hoaxers from a year ago.

Ok, there are 330 million Americans. Let's look at a case fatality rate of 0.4%, spread across 330 million people, if every person got infected: 1.32 million deaths.
Now, let's assume there is 95% protection against death from the vaccine: that's still 66,000 deaths. Still significantly more than the flu in most years.

Now, if we reach herd immunity, via vaccines.... then we can likely reduce deaths to well under 3,000 Covid deaths per year.

 

[havoc315]

I disagree with your goal death rate, while it would be great to get that low, that is an unrealistic goal. When we get to typical flu death numbers I will be thrilled and feel we reached our goal.

So, you think that our science and medicine has gone backwards. We can no longer accomplish the same things we used to accomplish against viral pandemics?

And we are a long way off of typical flu deaths, which average about 20,000-30,000 annually.

And can't believe we still have to repeat this in 2021: "Covid is NOT the flu"

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Which wasn't that the spirit behind the original 15 days to slow the spread? Lockdown, distance, all that, just to flatten the curve and not overwhelm the healthcare system? Not sorry for being selfish and saying that if cases are so low that no hospital system is overwhelmed that I'd rather be back to the lifestyle I had in 2019, not the depression of 2020.

This is where I've been the entire time.

500,000 people losing their lives is a tragedy. Average age 71. Life expectancy is 79. So we lost 4 million life-years to COVID deaths.

But 331,000,000 people each lost a year of their lives when they were banned from working, playing, and praying in response. That's 331 million life-years lost to COVID lockdowns.

I won't make a claim about which one is "worse" than the other, but the pro-lockdown crowd refuse to even acknowledge the latter as a consideration.

 

[DisneyCane]

And in some cases (thankfully far fewer) it can still be a serious course. And research is still open on the degree to which a vaccinated person can still carry the virus and transmit it to someone who will then have a very serious course. (Unsurprisingly, research is showing vaccine does reduce transmission, but how much is reduces transmission is still a very open question).

So I'll define risk: We need to get to a point where the risk of death from Covid is about the same as the risk of death from measles, mumps, polio, and other vaccinated viruses where we have reached herd immunity.

As we see in this chart in Israel, which is just about the only country with truly widespread vaccination.... even among those who completed their vaccinations in December and January, there are still a number of hospitalizations for severe Covid:

View attachment 534337

Your definition of risk is ridiculous, in my humble opinion. At 45 years old, my risk of dying of any cause within the next year is 0.33%. My risk of contracting COVID AND dying from it is lower than that even without vaccinations or if there had never been mitigation.

If I am vaccinated, the additional risk of me contracting and dying from COVID will be statistically irrelevant in the scheme of the risk I face just being alive.

That chart from Israel is based on statistical analysis by age and region. It is not based on official data which confirms that somebody actually was vaccinated, was infected after the two week period from the second shot and was hospitalized.

 

[Touchdown]

So, you think that our science and medicine has gone backwards. We can no longer accomplish the same things we used to accomplish against viral pandemics?

And we are a long way off of typical flu deaths, which average about 20,000-30,000 annually.

And can't believe we still have to repeat this in 2021: "Covid is NOT the flu"

No I think we as a society have tollerated the flu and that death rate for decades as a price for having society function normally and don’t see a reason to restrict society for another disease if the death rate is comparable.

 

[Mark52479]

People on here are going to have to agree to disagree when it comes to masks.

I am sure there will be people still wearing masks all through next year even if the virus is completely gone. That is their right and if they want to do that than so be it an no one should tell them otherwise.

But, there is going to come a time (I dont think anyone knows yet) where the vaccine will be available to EVERYONE. After a couple of months of it being available and those who wanted it go it, people are just going to stop wearing masks. It is inevitable.

Now, places like Disney, concerts, etc... may still require the masks but you are going to see a lot less people wearing masks while doing their daily activities.

 

[Touchdown]

People on here are going to have to agree to disagree when it comes to masks.

I am sure there will be people still wearing masks all through next year even if the virus is completely gone. That is their right and if they want to do that than so be it an no one should tell them otherwise.

But, there is going to come a time (I dont think anyone knows yet) where the vaccine will be available to EVERYONE. After a couple of months of it being available and those who wanted it go it, people are just going to stop wearing masks. It is inevitable.

Now, places like Disney, concerts, etc... may still require the masks but you are going to see a lot less people wearing masks while doing their daily activities.

I don’t think anyone begrudges someone choosing to wear a mask, but there will come a time, hopefully soon, when community spread stops and the mandates go away.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

And can't believe we still have to repeat this in 2021: "Covid is NOT the flu"

That's such a copout line that people like to throw around when they don't want to engage honestly.

"Covid is not the exact same thing as the flu" DOES NOT MEAN "Covid has nothing at all in common with the flu"

Me: "We can't build a football field here. We measured to build a soccer field three years ago and we don't have the space, plus the soil won't allow grass to grow."

You: "Football is NOT soccer."

Me: "Uh yeah, no kidding. I never said it was. But they share the requirement of a large rectangular grassy field of similar dimensions. They are different in many ways, but also have some things in common."

 

[havoc315]

Your definition of risk is ridiculous, in my humble opinion. At 45 years old, my risk of dying of any cause within the next year is 0.33%. My risk of contracting COVID AND dying from it is lower than that even without vaccinations or if there had never been mitigation.

If I am vaccinated, the additional risk of me contracting and dying from COVID will be statistically irrelevant in the scheme of the risk I face just being alive.

That chart from Israel is based on statistical analysis by age and region. It is not based on official data which confirms that somebody actually was vaccinated, was infected after the two week period from the second shot and was hospitalized.

No.... that's the people who completed their vaccinations. There is a separate chart of those not vaccinated.

You can call my opinion ridiculous. Neither my opinion nor your opinion matters. What matters is the government policy as well as WDW policy. And they define the risk the same way I did.