Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

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You: there is no excuse for the country not being vaccinated by July 1​

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Article: 'Healthy, young' Americans will likely get Covid-19 vaccine in mid- to late summer, expert says​

You know that July 1 is mid- to late summer, right? The article is agreeing with you. Why do you think it isn't?


As far the 100 million vaccines in 100 days, that was said back in the Trump administration when the Trump administration was completely failing at not meeting its goal of 20 million vaccines by the end of December.

The 100/100 is modest because there has always been, and still is, the possibility that something could go wrong with the JnJ and Astra vaccines. If they never got approved, then getting past 100/100 would be quite difficult. Those who are saying "100/100 is too modest" are counting their vaccines before they hatch.

Also, I remember quite well that for most of 2020, people were arguing whether the vaccines would be ready by October, November, or December of 2020. Who exactly was saying not until July of 2021?

I agree. I wish her would talk in quarters and say by the end of the second quarter or by the end of the third quarter. The experts also probably aren’t counting on JnJ or Astra coming through. To get to 70% vaccinated using just Pfizer and Moderna it will be sometime in August assuming they hit their delivery targets. We only have enough for 200M people on order to be delivered before July 1. That’s good for 60%. If we want to get an extra 30M people done to get to 70% that means 60M doses coming in Q3 from exercising that option to buy more.

The other factor is kids. If kid approval isn’t in yet the 200M shots will cover 80% of adults which is right now about the numbers polling is saying will get the vaccine. It’s possible that the post July 1 ”summer” vaccinations are mostly kids getting their shot before school starts, assuming they get approved.

 

[MisterPenguin]

The states are now showing that there’s no issue with the capacity to use the shots, all delays are now related to not having enough shots.

Umm... then how do you explain this?....

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The logistics say the country should be fully vaccinated by July 1 if we use all the vaccines. Why would anyone deny scientific facts. The EU is already using AstraZeneca and we should too. The CDC is not working in the interest of US Citizens by not approving it on an emergency basis. The new Administration should follow the lead of the Obama Administration which approved the Ebola vaccine prior to completing stage 3 testing and approve AstraZeneca's vaccine today.

Who says they’re not??

The Ebola comparison is a little off...the demand was never going to be to vaccinate the entire world’s adult population. That’s where we are.

It seems clear that they’re going to “under promise”...that’s intentional to keep restrictions in place for as long as possible. The “ma freedom” crowd had been proven too stupid to handle it and make intelligent choices...so dad has to take over.

It is what it is. I just hope I’m underestimating everyone can hold themselves back a little here...I don’t need “national debt” to come back from its vacation now...take another 4 years off.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Talk about a "study" that is released with an objective to add more authoritarian control.

There is no need to respond to the false ways you slice data to create your paranoid conspiracy theory that there is a cabal that exists through two politically opposing administrations that is "managing" a pandemic because of some sort of power trip.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Umm... then how do you explain this?....

View attachment 526517

That’s another hijacked narrative at work...wrecked local budgets kill productivity. That correlation isn’t being taken seriously...as usual.

 

[dreday3]

One more article about Moderna protecting against variants. This is fantastic news everyone!

As Virus Grows Stealthier, Vaccine Makers Reconsider Battle Plans (Published 2021)

Vaccines by Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech effectively protect recipients. But in a worrying sign, they are slightly less effective against a variant found in South Africa.

www.nytimes.com

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

There is no need to respond to the false ways you slice data to create your paranoid conspiracy theory that there is a cabal that exists through two politically opposing administrations that is "managing" a pandemic because of some sort of power trip.

“We can’t penetrate the Klingon shields, Captain!!”

 

[MisterPenguin]

That’s another hijacked narrative at work...wrecked local budgets kill productivity. That correlation isn’t being taken seriously...as usual.

Don't know what you're saying here. What's the narrative that is hijacked and what's the reality?

 

[DisneyCane]

So slow as **** Then?

Yea, real slow considering Moderna has been available for less than 4 weeks and availability for the 65+ general population only started 3 weeks ago. At least Ron Desantis was intelligent enough to prioritize the most at risk population over young grocery store workers or the number of 65+ with their first shot would be far lower.

So, extrapolating that out, we’ll be done with seniors and ready to move onto the next phase in...May?

No, it doesn't extrapolate like that. There are around 3.5 million seniors left to go. As of the latest report, 451,000 first doses were given 1/10-1/16. They have been ramping up capacity to give shots so this capacity is higher now. There should easily be the ability to give 500,000 first doses a week now and likely more but using 500,000 would mean 7 weeks. That calculates to being able to give first doses to the entire the 65+ population by 3/14 and allow the next phase to begin 6 weeks earlier than your extrapolation.

The mayor of Broward County sent an email on 1/15 where he stated that he expected that all seniors 65+ who wanted the vaccine should be able to get one (assuming he meant first dose) in 5-7 weeks which the high end would be a week earlier than my estimate. This all assumes doses are available.

 

[DisneyCane]

Umm... then how do you explain this?....

View attachment 526517

There are a lot of reporting delays which make the shots used % look worse than it really is. Also, the capacity to give shots is ramping up which will exceed the delivery rate very soon and start taking big chunks out of the unused doses that were already delivered.

 

[sullyinMT]

The logistics say the country should be fully vaccinated by July 1 if we use all the vaccines. Why would anyone deny scientific facts. The EU is already using AstraZeneca and we should too. The CDC is not working in the interest of US Citizens by not approving it on an emergency basis. The new Administration should follow the lead of the Obama Administration which approved the Ebola vaccine prior to completing stage 3 testing and approve AstraZeneca's vaccine today.

You mean FDA on a technicality, but Drs Fauci and Hahn have both defended the current process. If we jump the gun and approve a vaccine that doesn’t have sufficient data to submit it’s US trials for US approval, that will go a long way to derailing the trust we've built in a few short months. Perhaps if some of the foreign trial sites hadn’t bungled protocol there would be an argument to be made. Already fewer people are reporting they’ll wait a bit longer in polls, patience is the better path in this one.

Rushed approval by a couple weeks to a month for AZ, when JnJ is quickly on its way, is a fruitless endeavor.

 

[GoofGoof]

One more article about Moderna protecting against variants. This is fantastic news everyone!

As Virus Grows Stealthier, Vaccine Makers Reconsider Battle Plans (Published 2021)

Vaccines by Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech effectively protect recipients. But in a worrying sign, they are slightly less effective against a variant found in South Africa.

www.nytimes.com

It’s really great news that they are saying it still provides enough antibodies to provide protection and it also shows the real power and benefits of mRNA vaccines that they can alter the formula and create a booster. I posted a day or 2 back about a conversation I had with a friend who works for Pfizer and he said they were doing the same thing. Traditional vaccines take months to create or alter which is why they start working on the flu vaccine in the summer or earlier. Before Covid hit Pfizer and BioNtech were working together on an mRNA vaccine for flu that would have allowed them to wait much longer and likely make the vaccine more effective.

 

[GoofGoof]

Umm... then how do you explain this?....

View attachment 526517

Explain what. The number of daily vaccinations is steadily rising. If we were using half the doses available and daily shots were declining then I’d conclude that we aren’t able to keep up with supply. If the number of shots given each day keeps going up that means most likely the number of doses delivered has been going up too (which was projected by both manufacturers). When/if we get to the point that the number of shots goes down and the percent unused goes up then I’d worry.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It’s really great news that they are saying it still provides enough antibodies to provide protection and it also shows the real power and benefits of mRNA vaccines that they can alter the formula and create a booster. I posted a day or 2 back about a conversation I had with a friend who works for Pfizer and he said they were doing the same thing. Traditional vaccines take months to create or alter which is why they start working on the flu vaccine in the summer or earlier. Before Covid hit Pfizer and BioNtech were working together on an mRNA vaccine for flu that would have allowed them to wait much longer and likely make the vaccine more effective.

The science behind this is really an amazing development...beyond covid.

What’s shocking is that it takes the Black Plague for people to cut the crap and just concentrate on getting it done without accountants being put in control...

If I want $0.01 accounting practices...I know how to find my way to WDW

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Explain what. The number of daily vaccinations is steadily rising. If we were using half the doses available and daily shots were declining then I’d conclude that we aren’t able to keep up with supply. If the number of shots given each day keeps going up that means most likely the number of doses delivered has been going up too (which was projected by both manufacturers). When/if we get to the point that the number of shots goes down and the percent unused goes up then I’d worry.

The supply, distribution and delivery systems are horribly underdeveloped...that’s the reason.

Not to bemoan what turned out to be the truth...but I heard Tom bossert driving this point home LAST APRIL.

“Get ahead of it”

Guess what we did instead?

 

[GoofGoof]

The supply, distribution and delivery systems are horribly underdeveloped...that’s the reason.

Not to bemoan what turned out to be the truth...but I heard Tom bossert driving this point home LAST APRIL.

“Get ahead of it”

Guess what we did instead?

Anyone who thought this was going to be neat and clean and easy was kidding themselves. I remember saying that months ago too. I actually think in some aspects the rollout is going better than I thought. I set the bar pretty low

I can’t say what’s going on everywhere in the country, but where I live we have the capacity to do many more vaccinations a day. We just need the shots. They haven’t even fully rolled out pharmacies or opened a second mass vaccination site because with the sites they have they are using up all the shots they get and each week they end on empty until the next batch comes in.

 

[DisneyCane]

Anyone who thought this was going to be neat and clean and easy was kidding themselves. I remember saying that months ago too. I actually think in some aspects the rollout is going better than I thought. I set the bar pretty low

I can’t say what’s going on everywhere in the country, but where I live we have the capacity to do many more vaccinations a day. We just need the shots. They haven’t even fully rolled out pharmacies or opened a second mass vaccination site because with the sites they have they are using up all the shots they get and each week they end on empty until the next batch comes in.

In an email last Friday, the Broward County Mayor said they have stopped negotiating with the State to use leftover CARES act funds to increase the capacity to give shots because the capacity without the additional funding exceeds the expected supply. He said they are currently administering around 25,000 doses a week and have the capacity to do over 50,000.

 

[Kevin_W]

There is no need to respond to the false ways you slice data to create your paranoid conspiracy theory that there is a cabal that exists through two politically opposing administrations that is "managing" a pandemic because of some sort of power trip.

I don't think that's what he's saying, Penguin. I think here he's saying that I wouldn't get to hung up on what a "model" says at this point. We have a year's worth of data now that show they have been close to worthless.

I find it darkly humorous that my state's dashboard still publishes this model, last updated April 5. It's dgood to know that with the mitigation steps we took the pandemic was essentially done by late May...

 

[Parker in NYC]

If I get the vaccine by September, I'll be surprised. I don't envy the folks trying to piece this mess together.

 

[danlb_2000]

The incoming Biden administration said they'd be revoking that last minute Trump administration lifting of the ban as soon as it was announced days before the inauguration.

I'm surprised it wasn't rescinded in the first batch of Executive Orders.

Perhaps, unlike the previous administration, they're taking the time for the lawyers to draft and go over the EOs so that they're not immediately struck down by a court.

The lifting of the ban wasn't going to go into effect until tomorrow, so there was no reason to rush it out day one.