Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

....maybe the Covid restrictions do work at lowering cases after all. New cases in CA down 40% and down for the 5th straight day:

California Covid-19 Update: Newsom’s Lockdown May Be Working; Daily New Case Numbers 40% Lower; Down For 5th Straight Day

Almost exactly two weeks after California Governor Gavin Newsom announced what became a new lockdown for most of the state’s population, the daily number of new cases has fallen for five successive days. Granted, those numbers are dropping from an all-time new daily case high for the state — or...

www.yahoo.com

 

[Figgy1]

View attachment 520272

From the FL Division of Emergency Management website linked below -

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The virus isn't going to take a holiday!!!!!!

 

[Disney Experience]

For a little "covid christmas" (Oxymoron?) humor:

 

[bryanfze55]

....maybe the Covid restrictions do work at lowering cases after all. New cases in CA down 40% and down for the 5th straight day:

California Covid-19 Update: Newsom’s Lockdown May Be Working; Daily New Case Numbers 40% Lower; Down For 5th Straight Day

Almost exactly two weeks after California Governor Gavin Newsom announced what became a new lockdown for most of the state’s population, the daily number of new cases has fallen for five successive days. Granted, those numbers are dropping from an all-time new daily case high for the state — or...

www.yahoo.com

No reasonable person has ever doubted that lockdowns work. The question is at what cost.

 

[JoeCamel]

The virus isn't going to take a holiday!!!!!!

Don't look at the numbers for a week.

 

[GoofGoof]

No reasonable person has ever doubted that lockdowns work. The question is at what cost.

Plenty of people here have questioned CA recently....I’m not sure if they are reasonable people though

There are repeated posts questioning why CA cases are high since they have increased Covid restrictions. This shows it works, but just takes time.

 

[sullyinMT]

The cost is a reasonable question, though. I’m sure for the more populous areas of CA it’s hard to argue the strictest measures, but not all of Cali is SD, LA, or the Bay. To his credit, Newsom did zone the state to reflect this in his most recently published guidelines.

Just to illustrate, Montana dialed back in their more populous areas, but kept gyms, dining, and bars to 50% instead of the pre-peak 75. Also instituted a 10pm-4pm business curfew. Our hospital and case rates have been cut in half in about a month.

Again showing that every area is different and our nation is made up of so many unique regions.

 

[GoofGoof]

The cost is a reasonable question, though. I’m sure for the more populous areas of CA it’s hard to argue the strictest measures, but not all of Cali is SD, LA, or the Bay. To his credit, Newsom did zone the state to reflect this in his most recently published guidelines.

Just to illustrate, Montana dialed back in their more populous areas, but kept gyms, dining, and bars to 50% instead of the pre-peak 75. Also instituted a 10pm-4pm business curfew. Our hospital and case rates have been cut in half in about a month.

Again showing that every area is different and our nation is made up of so many unique regions.

And there are some who would call that dialing back a lockdown and a “draconian measure”. I agree with you and this has always been the case with Covid restrictions. Even in CA they are still far from a true lockdown, but I know that triggers some people to say so let’s not have that debate again. Dialing back some activity is a reasonable response to a spike in cases. Some people don’t agree with that and that’s fine.

 

[DCBaker]

The federal government is advancing toward a deal with Pfizer to secure 100 million more doses of vaccine by July for nearly $2 billion.

Pfizer, U.S. Reach Deal to Boost Covid-19 Vaccine Supply

The drug company will provide 100 million additional doses to bolster the vaccination campaign that is under way in the U.S.

www.wsj.com

 

[danlb_2000]

The federal government is advancing toward a deal with Pfizer to secure 100 million more doses of vaccine by July for nearly $2 billion.

Pfizer, U.S. Reach Deal to Boost Covid-19 Vaccine Supply

The drug company will provide 100 million additional doses to bolster the vaccination campaign that is under way in the U.S.

www.wsj.com

There is a certain part of the population that complains about government run healthcare and socialized medicine, and yet I have yet to see one person complain that the government is paying for people to get this vaccine.

 

[Disney Experience]

Concerning the new covid strain and Pfizer's vaccine:

Will the Pfizer-BioNTech Vaccine Protect Against New COVID-19 Strain?

In a December 8, 2020 meeting with U.K. scientists and public health experts, it was announced that there was a growing new strain of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19.

www.biospace.com

For those that do not want to read the article:

Ugur Sahin, chief executive officer and co-founder of BioNTech said it probably will as well. The company has already performed laboratory assays of the vaccines performance against 20 mutant strains, and the same tests will be performed on the new U.K. version. Sahin says it should take about two weeks.

“We don’t know at the moment if our vaccine is also able to provide protection against this new variant,” Sahin said in a news conference the day after the vaccine was approved for use in the European Union. “But scientifically, it is highly likely that the immune response by this vaccine also can deal with the new virus variant. But we will know it only if the experiment is done and we will need about two weeks from now to get the data. The likelihood that our vaccine works … is relatively high.”

 

[oceanbreeze77]

But wait, theres more.....

 

[Disney Experience]

For the continent that is naturally "locked down" Covid19 finally arrived. Guess they did not quarantine new arrivals for ten days.

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-12-22/coronavirus-cases-on-chilean-research-base-are-first-reported-in-antarctica

 

[Kevin_W]

Concerning the new covid strain and Pfizer's vaccine:

Will the Pfizer-BioNTech Vaccine Protect Against New COVID-19 Strain?

In a December 8, 2020 meeting with U.K. scientists and public health experts, it was announced that there was a growing new strain of the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19.

www.biospace.com

For those that do not want to read the article:

I saw an article about the Oxfor/Astra vaccine that said they thought theirs would work, too.

 

[DCBaker]

 

[MisterPenguin]

But wait, theres more.....

Four years in office and he doesn't understand what an omnibus bill is.

The things he complains about have been going on for the past four years, and now, he's concerned about them.

What he wants the bill to have with regard to financial relief, doesn't, because of Republicans, and he hasn't been leaning on them to make it happen.

 

[Disney Experience]

From a Fox News medical consultant:

"There is a false construct out there, there’s a recommendation that we need to get every American immunized in order to get a handle on the pandemic," Makary -- a professor of surgery and health policy at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore told guest host Brian Kilmeade.

"The reality is that about 25 to 50% of Americans have already had the infection and have some natural immunity," he added. "Now, we don't know if that's a little better, a little worse, or the same as vaccinated immunity, but ... we may only need to get an additional 20% of the population immunized by February or March to really hit those 70% herd immunity levels."

Currently there have been 17,974,303 Covid cases in the USA out of a 331 million population. That is 5.430% of the population. We are actually gaining 183,927 cases per day. So at this point we are likely getting more cases per day than vaccinations per day. I am not subtracting deaths from any of these numbers since that would not have significant impact.

But in any case we can say for sure that we have at least 5.430% of the US pop with natural immunity post their illness [Not sure for how long after]. Then there is the asymptotic cases. I am sure there are papers that more directly address the estimate of asymptomatic carriers, but using the Stanford paper on the Diamond Princess:

https://med.stanford.edu/content/dam/sm/id/documents/COVID/AsymptCOVID_TransmissionShip.pdf

It would seem from my cursory review that you have approximately as many asymptomatic as symptomatic. (I know there are larger multiples reportedly claimed, but just using the study I have on hand to determine the number of asymptomatic vs symptomatic] [Diamond Princess does not match the whole US demographics in age, and other characteristics so it is not a perfect model].

Therefore we would have 10.860% of the population with herd immunity as of today, not counting the vaccinated.

Dr. Makary came to a 25% to 50% of population having natural immunity, not sure how he came to that number (I assume a much higher estimated asymptomatic pop). I do not have high confidence that with 20% of pop vaccinated we will have herd immunity unless we have a much higher asymptomatic number than can be derived from the Diamond Princess event.

 

[GoofGoof]

From a Fox News medical consultant:


Currently there have been 17,974,303 Covid cases in the USA out of a 331 million population. That is 5.430% of the population. We are actually gaining 183,927 cases per day. So at this point we are likely getting more cases per day than vaccinations per day. I am not subtracting deaths from any of these numbers since that would not have significant impact.

But in any case we can say for sure that we have at least 5.430% of the US pop with natural immunity post their illness [Not sure for how long after]. Then there is the asymptotic cases. I am sure there are papers that more directly address the estimate of asymptomatic carriers, but using the Stanford paper on the Diamond Princess:

https://med.stanford.edu/content/dam/sm/id/documents/COVID/AsymptCOVID_TransmissionShip.pdf

It would seem from my cursory review that you have approximately as many asymptomatic as symptomatic. (I know there are larger multiples reportedly claimed, but just using the study I have on hand to determine the number of asymptomatic vs symptomatic] [Diamond Princess does not match the whole US demographics in age, and other characteristics so it is not a perfect model].

Therefore we would have 10.860% of the population with herd immunity as of today, not counting the vaccinated. The Dr. Makary came to a 25% to 50% of population having natural immunity, not sure how he came to that number (I assume a much higher estimated asymptomatic pop). I do not have high confidence that with 20% of pop vaccinated we will have herd immunity.

Plus I’m sure a large number of people who had covid but were asymptomatic will still get the vaccine. It’s not like you know you had it. Even the people infected last Spring and summer are likely to take the vaccine come Spring/Summer since their natural immunity will already be going on a year’s time. I don’t think we can effectively count all of the naturally positive towards herd immunity. Probably at least half or more of the naturally infected will overlap and get the vaccine too.

 

[Miss Bella]

Plenty of people here have questioned CA recently....I’m not sure if they are reasonable people though

There are repeated posts questioning why CA cases are high since they have increased Covid restrictions. This shows it works, but just takes time.

I wonder what the unemployment rate will be in a month and how many businesses will fail. Maybe you are the unreasonable one.

 

[Miss Bella]

Four years in office and he doesn't understand what an omnibus bill is.

The things he complains about have been going on for the past four years, and now, he's concerned about them.

What he wants the bill to have with regard to financial relief, doesn't, because of Republicans, and he hasn't been leaning on them to make it happen.

Is Trump a republican?