Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[MisterPenguin]

Has the UK government put out how they came to the 70% greater transmissibility of the mutation? And that it's definitely due to mutation and not behavior or relaxed standards? And what is the nature of the transmissibility? Does it require more distancing to avoid? Lower capacities? Less time in a smaller space?

Without the data, I can't help but wonder if the mutation is being up-played as an excuse to clamp down so Boris Johnson doesn't look as inept for loosening things up. If the mutation has been around awhile (one story I ready this AM said it was also detected in Brazil), it surely has made some rounds.

I'm truly not a conspiracy theory person, but it seems there's a lot of conjecture without much evidence. It seems the story is "This mutation is more contagious! Now, let's research it and see if that's actually true."

WHO briefing right now answered a question on the transmissibility - noting it moved the R0 from 1.1 to 1.5. They were clear that the good news is that is a very manageable number to get under control. This isn't a wildly out of control thing, so much as something that requires a doubling down. More information coming in daily as more research is being done.

No information has changed on how it spreads (still spreads between people in close contact).

For all of our chaos with politics and hospital capacity here, Britain definitely doesn't need this. Hope it all gets better soon!

First, let's put numbers in perspective. That "70%" figure sounds scary. But, it's 70% of a small number, namely, the R-nought number. So, using the example above, an R0 of 1.1 going to 1.5 is an absolute value increase of .4, which is an increase of 36%. If it went from 1.1 to 1.77, that would be a 70% increase. An R0 of 1.77 isn't good, but it isn't apocalyptic.

Second, while this *could be* more contagious, there's no evidence for it, except, for its current prevalence among the strains that exist. That *may imply* greater contagiousness, but not necessarily. As we always say when doing science: correlation is not causation.

Could there be other causes? Oh, yes. How about the geometric curve we're all so familiar with? As we plot the daily number of cases and see the trend line get larger, it suddenly spikes upward. That has happened with all the other mutations of COVID... so why is this spike any different? It's happening everywhere with the older mutations.

I laughed at one of the quoted articles which pointed to this geometric growth of COVID in the U.K. despite lockdowns. Um.... we have geometric growth just about everywhere despite precautions being made. Why? Because people won't stop socializing and going to indoor restaurants and bars and gyms and they think being outside magically protects them from someone next to them without a mask on.

If there is a new strain of COVID that has a R0 closer to 2.0 than 1.0, then all the hygiene precautions we've been doing should still work... if people took them seriously.

 

[GhostHost1000]

And that’s the main problem.

so we either risk getting or not getting covid and have a 99%+ chance of being fine if we do get
it or not have a life at all and just hope this thing will magically disappear like a RotR availability each day?

 

[John park hopper]

So you hate muppets? I happen to love them myself.

Calling someone foolish for spreading negativity is not insensitive but nice attempt at deflecting.

The Chinese govt is not at fault. That's not a fact. Not even close.

Spreading insensitivity is only your opinion and your reference to muppets was clearly derogatory. There are plenty of credible sources that point the finger at the Chinese government for the world wide spread. No need to respond it's pointless to respond to your nonsense __IGNORE button

 

[lazyboy97o]

so we either risk getting or not getting covid and have a 99%+ chance of being fine if we do get
it or not have a life at all and just hope this thing will magically disappear like a RotR availability each day?

The “It’s fine” threads are in the Disneyland forum.

 

[Disney Experience]

First, let's put numbers in perspective. That "70%" figure sounds scary. But, it's 70% of a small number, namely, the R-nought number. So, using the example above, an R0 of 1.1 going to 1.5 is an absolute value increase of .4, which is an increase of 36%. If it went from 1.1 to 1.77, that would be a 70% increase. An R0 of 1.77 isn't good, but it isn't apocalyptic.

Second, while this *could be* more contagious, there's no evidence for it, except, for its current prevalence among the strains that exist. That *may imply* greater contagiousness, but not necessarily. As we always say when doing science: correlation is not causation.

Could there be other causes? Oh, yes. How about the geometric curve we're all so familiar with? As we plot the daily number of cases and see the trend line get larger, it suddenly spikes upward. That has happened with all the other mutations of COVID... so why is this spike any different? It's happening everywhere with the older mutations.

I laughed at one of the quoted articles which pointed to this geometric growth of COVID in the U.K. despite lockdowns. Um.... we have geometric growth just about everywhere despite precautions being made. Why? Because people won't stop socializing and going to indoor restaurants and bars and gyms and they think being outside magically protects them from someone next to them without a mask on.

If there is a new strain of COVID that has a R0 closer to 2.0 than 1.0, then all the hygiene precautions we've been doing should still work... if people took them seriously.

Numbers are fun, and can sometimes be phrased in varying ways that may be misguided. (Not implying that about the above quote at all).
Example:
Old strain R0 =1.1
estimated new strain R0=1.77

1. Old Strain + 60% = New Strain number
2. New Strain - 32.9% = Old Strain Number
3. Given than R0=1 means flat virus growth in terms of humans. (For every human who had it, one human will get it).
Then with the Old Strain had for every ten humans with covid there would be eleven with covid in the future.
and the New Strain had (as estimated given current facts) for every ten humans with covid there would be 17.7 in the future.
That would be seven times more "additional cases"(Not total) per ten subjects with covid. Just shows how wording can be used to increase or decrease the subjective perceived risk.

 

[danlb_2000]

so we either risk getting or not getting covid and have a 99%+ chance of being fine if we do get
it or not have a life at all and just hope this thing will magically disappear like a RotR availability each day?

I could agree with this if there was no hope of having a way to protect ourselves from the virus, but with two very promising vaccines approved that is not the case. Sacrifice a bit of your life now, so we can all enjoy our lives in the near future. As I said in a post earlier, I have friends who's decision to "live their life" basically killed one of their fathers.

 

[correcaminos]

Spreading insensitivity is only your opinion and your reference to muppets was clearly derogatory. There are plenty of credible sources that point the finger at the Chinese government for the world wide spread. No need to respond it's pointless to respond to nonsense __IGNORE button

Look up muppet. It's a name created by Jim Henson. It's used to mean fool or foolish in the manner I did. It is foolish and downright rude to continue as Trump did.

If we blame the Chinese government how do you look at every single other country out there? Though some are able to contain better than others.

 

[HarperRose]

Whilst to early to be sure, consensus is vaccines should still be effective. But we’re still six months away from enough being inoculated. Figures are putting this strain around 70% more transmittable, but it’s only been 48 hours since we (the public) became aware of it.

Europe is virtually collapsing as I type this. The UK too. God help the US if the new strain gets to you.

Can you explain your "virtually collapsing" comment, please? I've seen travel in and out of the UK has been restricted (as it should be) but nothing to indicate the entirety of Europe is collapsing.

 

[marni1971]

Can you explain your "virtually collapsing" comment, please? I've seen travel in and out of the UK has been restricted (as it should be) but nothing to indicate the entirety of Europe is collapsing.

I’ll refer you to the figures and European news outlets. It was dominant in our news briefs until 2 days ago when obviously things changed.

 

[marni1971]

so we either risk getting or not getting covid and have a 99%+ chance of being fine if we do get
it or not have a life at all and just hope this thing will magically disappear like a RotR availability each day?

Not worth dignifying with a reasonable reply.

 

[GhostHost1000]

Not worth dignifying with a reasonable reply.

You don’t need to I see where you stand and reasonable is subjective

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Europe is virtually collapsing as I type this. The UK too. God help the US if the new strain gets to you.

Theres speculation that the new strain is what's eating LA alive.

 

[HarperRose]

It's $600 for those making $75 or less, or $1200 for a couple making $120K or less. I'm wondering whether those are "projected income " or actual income (for those who are still experiencing job loss/furlough) figures? And my 2 teen kids are too old to qualify for the additional +$600 each. UGH.

The income limits are AGI $75,000 for a single person and $150,000 married couple filing jointly.

Stimulus checks - Business Insider

Latest stories about Stimulus checks on Business Insider

www.businessinsider.com

 

[oceanbreeze77]

6 flights a day into the NY airports alone. I’m sure there are some going to other airports. Nothing like pre-Covid levels but they are still running. It’s probably time to shut that down.

Edit: without an exception, travelers from Europe are still banned from coming to the US but US citizens abroad can return freely from there.

3/4 into LAX

 

[oceanbreeze77]

$600 stimulus checks could hit people’s bank accounts as early as next week. Not soon enough for Christmas shopping but hopefully a kickstart to the economy going into 2021 and a lifeline for some people who really need it. I still think they should have considered adding in an additional $400 to $600 for getting vaccinated. Could have helped boost vaccinations and stimulate the economy more. Still time to do that as the vaccine becomes more readily available.

The $600 will be taken almost immediately for many due to overdue bills.

 

[Disney Experience]

If we blame the Chinese government how do you look at every single other country out there? Though some are able to contain better than others.

One can reasonable (But not absolutely) blame the Communist Chinese Government in one or more areas such as their bio research safeguards, experimentation (surveying, breeding or editing), or most likely just in their non-transparency post escape/mutation (Wild or otherwise).

If you take the most benign view of what happened in China in my opinion that would be:
Infections occur (Not even going to try to speculate on true Person Zero).
Infections increase to the level the local Chinese Province becomes aware of it.
Within the Chinese scientific community some release the Genome to other countries. (This was a very good thing)
Some Clinical frontline doctors in China note the number of people needing treatment and in time go worldwide with the info. (This too was a very good thing)
The local government likely felt this would blow over, but needed to make sure no public panic.
So they tamped down real hard on any discussion.
Bejing learns of this (Whether from its own sources or because the Provincial Govt notifies it)
Having experience with bad outbreaks in the past they quarantine that province, inspect on roads into Bejing. But the quarantine is only within the country. International trade is not hindered since that would have serious economic impact. Just as leaders in many countries do they assume this will not spread fast. [Again I am trying to give the best possible reasons here, not the worst possible]

The rest of the world gets cases.

 

[Lilofan]

I read that article. They were contacting their concierge physicians to try to move forward in the line, but the realty is that a cash-only physician's practice almost certainly will not have any influence on who receives the vaccine, since the supplies are coordinated by the state. Money can talk, but that doesn't necessarily mean anyone's listening.

Governor Newsome of CA claims he will ensure that this doesn't happen. Then I have a bridge for sale also...

 

[Disney Experience]

Speaking of bureaucratic mistakes impacting rate of vaccination:

N.J. missed deadline to start nursing home vaccinations on Monday. It will start a week later instead.

The plan calls for vaccinating about 156,000 patients in 1,100 facilities.

www.nj.com

Not sure if this just delays the time of vaccination(Delays that for a week), or the amount of vaccine(That week's quantity went to another state and will not be made up).

I am sure it was embarrassing to the state leadership and may actually (In a small probabilistic sense) impact health.

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

The $600 will be taken almost immediately for many due to overdue bills.

Exactly. That $600 is not going to stimulate anything. What a joke.

 

[GoofGoof]

Speaking of bureaucratic mistakes impacting rate of vaccination:

N.J. missed deadline to start nursing home vaccinations on Monday. It will start a week later instead.

The plan calls for vaccinating about 156,000 patients in 1,100 facilities.

www.nj.com

Not sure if this just delays the time of vaccination(Delays that for a week), or the amount of vaccine(That week's quantity went to another state and will not be made up).

I am sure it was embarrassing to the state leadership and may actually (In a small probabilistic sense) impact health.

I think just timing. As of yesterday 2.8M doses were distributed to the whole country but only a little over half a million were used. There will be some catch up eventually as they either add more sites to vaccinate or there’s a slowdown from shipment. This week they will also get the Moderna shots in so should ramp up fast.