Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

Right. I’m saying that I hope it gets spelled out in the messaging that “At +/-75% efficacy (I expect it to drop a little as phase 3 data becomes complete), if 40, 50, or 60% of people get vaccinated, here’s what we can expect in 1, 2, and 3 months if people continue with current protocols.”
Americans in particular, and humans to a large extent, are goal driven. It would give us a clear light at the end of the tunnel.

I think that’s a good idea. People are a little skeptical of the models anymore, but it’s still worth putting the information out there.

I don’t know all the logistics of the Pfizer plan and how many doses go to the US vs the rest of the world, but they said they would have the capacity to produce up to 1.2 billion doses in 2021 so I am assuming 100M doses a month. If the US gets half to 2/3 of those doses that’s 50 to 75 million doses a month. That means in theory 100 to 150M Americans vaccinated by the end of April and 150 to 225M by the end of June. That also assumes only the Pfizer vaccine is used. If one or more of the other vaccines is approved and rolled out the timing could be moved up even sooner. Potentially having anyone who wants a vaccine done by as early as April. That all assumes there aren’t any delays in production or delivery which is a big assumption.

 

[matt9112]

Fly......

Because nobody on this board has ever had a fly land on them....ever....ok buddy.

 

[Disstevefan1]

I just wanted to jump in to remind people that while the medical community is impressed with Warp Speed, they are also frustrated by the single minded nature that accompanies this administration’s actions. They point out that if a fraction of the money spent on Warp Speed was spent on improving testing capabilities we could have been doing a lot more living this fall and winter. They believe we should have a rapid, in home testing, like a pregnancy test, at this point. But we put all the money in vaccines. Which is great for what happens in two years (counting from March 2020, not today) but as gets repeated ad nauseum, we can’t live this way for two years. Instead, we’re going into this second wave as blind as we were the first wave with identifying cases. Long lines at test sites, back to testing symptomatic only, etc.

While I understand the need for testing; we get more data for contact tracing and more data to see how we are doing in the fight against it.

In my opinion, getting the “fix” as in the vaccine, is more important than getting metrics about the problem we are trying to fix, especially when we already know how contagious it is and how to try to mitigate it.

 

[Kevin_W]

I just wanted to jump in to remind people that while the medical community is impressed with Warp Speed, they are also frustrated by the single minded nature that accompanies this administration’s actions. They point out that if a fraction of the money spent on Warp Speed was spent on improving testing capabilities we could have been doing a lot more living this fall and winter. They believe we should have a rapid, in home testing, like a pregnancy test, at this point. But we put all the money in vaccines. Which is great for what happens in two years (counting from March 2020, not today) but as gets repeated ad nauseum, we can’t live this way for two years. Instead, we’re going into this second wave as blind as we were the first wave with identifying cases. Long lines at test sites, back to testing symptomatic only, etc.

No way we are as blind as when this first started. On April 1, the USA was performing 0.35 tests per 1000 people. As of today, that number is 3.15, so even without a $1 at-home test (which would be great) we are at least doing a lot better than we were.

 

[GoofGoof]

While I understand the need for testing; we get more data for contact tracing and more data to see where we are doing in the fight against it.

In my opinion, getting the “fix” as in the vaccine, is more important than getting metrics about the problem we are trying to fix, especially when we already know how contagious it is and how to try to mitigate it.

The vaccine in hugely important but there was no reason not to do both. It’s not like we only had enough money and resources to do one or the other but not both. It’s too late to go back now.

 

[DisneyCane]

I just wanted to jump in to remind people that while the medical community is impressed with Warp Speed, they are also frustrated by the single minded nature that accompanies this administration’s actions. They point out that if a fraction of the money spent on Warp Speed was spent on improving testing capabilities we could have been doing a lot more living this fall and winter. They believe we should have a rapid, in home testing, like a pregnancy test, at this point. But we put all the money in vaccines. Which is great for what happens in two years (counting from March 2020, not today) but as gets repeated ad nauseum, we can’t live this way for two years. Instead, we’re going into this second wave as blind as we were the first wave with identifying cases. Long lines at test sites, back to testing symptomatic only, etc.

They "believe" we should have rapid, in home testing like a pregnancy test? Do tests like this exist for any virus? Pregnancy tests are reacting to hormones that are present in urine. The abbott rapid test that uses a card and no machine and is somewhat similar to a pregnancy test still requires reagents be applied and getting a nasal swab.

I "believe" that if the technology existed for what they "believe" we should have then it would have been developed because the sales potential is infinite in the current situation.

Also, why is this a failure of "this administration?" What about every other country in the world? Have none of them wanted to spend the desired money on the home, DYI rapid test?

Even if this test did exist, how many people would really test themselves every day and then self report and isolate if they test positive?

 

[hopemax]

No way we are as blind as when this first started. On April 1, the USA was performing 0.35 tests per 1000 people. As of today, that number is 3.15, so even without a $1 at-home test (which would be great) we are at least doing a lot better than we were.

I was thinking more on how this is affecting us on a personal level, than national statistics. At this moment are you positive, am I? Is answering this question meaningfully easier for you or me than earlier this year? If we could meaningfully say yes, then maybe a household could invite Grandma for Thanksgiving. While still skipping the 20 people family dinners, at least maybe some people wouldn't have to celebrate alone.

 

[DCBaker]

 

[hopemax]

They "believe" we should have rapid, in home testing like a pregnancy test? Do tests like this exist for any virus? Pregnancy tests are reacting to hormones that are present in urine. The abbott rapid test that uses a card and no machine and is somewhat similar to a pregnancy test still requires reagents be applied and getting a nasal swab.

I "believe" that if the technology existed for what they "believe" we should have then it would have been developed because the sales potential is infinite in the current situation.

Also, why is this a failure of "this administration?" What about every other country in the world? Have none of them wanted to spend the desired money on the home, DYI rapid test?

Even if this test did exist, how many people would really test themselves every day and then self report and isolate if they test positive?

The pregnancy analogy was my attempt, not the medical communities, at describing what a potential end game for testing might look like. To differentiate from where we are right now.

Other countries are much farther along with their ability to mass test, with rapid diagnostics, In-home, not there yet, but better than the US. Things like the test program Slovakia just carried out, which used a test developed by South Korea. Or the one that Liverpool is gearing up to do.

 

[Patcheslee]

They "believe" we should have rapid, in home testing like a pregnancy test? Do tests like this exist for any virus? Pregnancy tests are reacting to hormones that are present in urine. The abbott rapid test that uses a card and no machine and is somewhat similar to a pregnancy test still requires reagents be applied and getting a nasal swab.

I "believe" that if the technology existed for what they "believe" we should have then it would have been developed because the sales potential is infinite in the current situation.

Also, why is this a failure of "this administration?" What about every other country in the world? Have none of them wanted to spend the desired money on the home, DYI rapid test?

Even if this test did exist, how many people would really test themselves every day and then self report and isolate if they test positive?

If it requires me voluntarily itching my OWN brain through the nose again, count me out.
And also home pregnancy tests still have to be confirmed by a doctor with their own test.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I arrived to work today and flipped my weekly wall calendar to the next page... oh so many optimistic months ago, I had marked that this was the week my wife and I would bring our son to Disney World for the first time. There was a quick tinge of sadness. Oh well, time to move on. At least we were able to squeak by a visit to Disneyland right before everything shut down.

 

[GoofGoof]

I arrived to work today and flipped my weekly wall calendar to the next page... oh so many optimistic months ago, I had marked that this was the week my wife and I would bring our son to Disney World for the first time. There was a quick tinge of sadness. Oh well, time to move on. At least we were able to squeak by a visit to Disneyland right before everything shut down.

I got in a DLR trip about 6 months before it shut down. Crazy to think about that now. I had no idea this was coming. I haven’t been to WDW since 2017....longest break in my adult life. I may need the park maps again to figure out where to go

 

[DCBaker]

 

[LittleBuford]

I personally hope some of the social distancing things stay forever. I'm good with hugging my family but I hope we never go back to being shoulder to shoulder with anyone ever again. I'm enjoying having my personal space back.

The thought of a world without hugs, handshakes, and (respectful) proximity to other human beings is very depressing to me. Having experienced six months of such distancing and knowing that many more are in store, I for one can’t wait for a time when I can be among crowds again—especially at Disney.

 

[GoofGoof]

Damn, not good. Everyone down in FL stay safe. 2021 can’t come soon enough.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I have no idea what you're talking about to be honest. And I live in Bergen County.

Edit: let me rephrase, I do know exactly what you're insinuating, I have no idea why it's relevant. I'm Irish.

Just trying where you’re coming from...and whether it’s more a “cultural” thing (which I understand)...or rooted in some kinda civil disobedience.

Seems it’s neither.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Say it ain't so Joe !!!!

Guess who has NOT built the cold storage and distribution facilities that we knew we needed for the last 8 months...

...take your time thinking about it

 

[FeelsSoGoodToBeBad]

2021 can’t come soon enough.

I hear/see that a lot and this little voice in the back of my head says, "Be careful what you wish for."

 

[Jrb1979]

The thought of a world without hugs, handshakes, and (respectful) proximity to other human beings is very depressing to me. Having experienced six months of such distancing and knowing that many more are in store, I for one can’t wait for a time when I can be among crowds again—especially at Disney.

You can be in proximity with others without being right in their face. I have been able to have many conversations with people being 6 ft apart. The world will have hugs and handshakes again. I just hope the shoulder to shoulder crowding never comes back.

 

[Jwink]

Where are the numbers today?