Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Sirwalterraleigh]

To piggyback on your last paragraph, I thought it was wise of our president elect to temper expectations when he tried to remind the people that it will still be months to widespread distribution. In other words, we can’t take the masks off tomorrow.
Hopefully that message gets reiterated throughout the media after today’s well-deserved elation wears off and reality sets in again.

...sorry...I lost my train of thought and blacked out a little there...

 

[DisneyCane]

Put that on a sign outside the show. See how many people still want to see the show.

The reverse of 99.8%, 0.2% is a HUGE number when the sample size is large and the outcome is severe. Needs a lot more digits. Not to mention, 99.8% assumes we’ve under counted infections by orders of magnitude.

Could you imagine the outrage if every hour two people died after riding Slinky Dog Dash?

Do you people understand what a survivability rate is? 99.8% survivability is not a percentage of the population, it's the percentage of people who become infected with COVID. This analogy to how many people 0.2% of a Disney attraction capacity is and how many would die per hour on SDD is very ignorant. To have a 0.2% chance (not taking into account age) of dying of COVID, first you have to become infected with it.

 

[sullyinMT]

Agreed on this. We can finally see the potential of real exit from this pandemic. If anything it should inspire people to hang on a little longer. Delay doing something now that can lead to more spread for 6 months or less and you can do it safely. A lot of people were pushing for relaxing or no restrictions because “we can’t live like this forever“ but now we have a likely ballpark ending timeframe. Just “live like this“ for a little longer and its also past due time that the federal government passes the new relief bill. Make sure people negatively impacted by restrictions are taken care of for a little longer. Much easier to stomach that type of bail out when it’s limited in time.

Because next week is the earliest that Pfizer/BnT can submit data for an EUA or extended use agreement with the FDA, I'd love to see them submit a timeline to distribution and likely effect if "X, Y, and Z" number of people take it once available to at least half of the population. That would also give credence to the "we can't let up now" argument if the manufacturers themselves plea with the GP for help.

 

[techgeek]

Do you people understand what a survivability rate is? 99.8% survivability is not a percentage of the population, it's the percentage of people who become infected with COVID. This analogy to how many people 0.2% of a Disney attraction capacity is and how many would die per hour on SDD is very ignorant. To have a 0.2% chance (not taking into account age) of dying of COVID, first you have to become infected with it.

So to put these ‘Russian roulette’ numbers in the appropriate Disney context, every time you fill the American Adventure theater (capacity 1024) with COVID + guests, 2 don’t come out at the end of the show.

And at the moment, as a country... we’re running something like 100 shows a day.

I was quite specific in the context of my original post that the theater would be filled with positive cases, not general population.

 

[DisneyCane]

A national distribution strategy of an effective vaccine IS “the big boys and girls”

And certainly the first semblance of one to cross the border into Florida at this point.

Oh...I almost forgot since it’s monday:
“You again?”

There already was/is a national distribution strategy for the vaccine. No matter what the result of the election would have been, it would have been distributed just as effectively.

And since it's Monday I'll ignore you being a jerk with your constant personal attacks.

 

[Chi84]

I was quite specific in the context of my original post that the theater would be filled with positive cases, not general population.

But why post that at all? What’s the likelihood of an entire theater filled with COVID positive guests? This virus is bad enough as it is without using hyperbolic examples.

 

[DisneyCane]

...sorry...I lost my train of thought and blacked out a little there...

View attachment 511650

You can thank COVID for that because if not for the economic damage created by it and the line of criticism enabled by it, the result would not have been what you wanted. The mass mail in voting for "safety" didn't hurt either.

 

[Disstevefan1]

So to put these ‘Russian roulette’ numbers in the appropriate Disney context, every time you fill the American Adventure theater (capacity 1024) with COVID + guests, 2 don’t come out at the end of the show.

And at the moment, as a country... we’re running something like 100 shows a day.

The American Adventure theatre was never filled to its capacity ever in its existence. Also, aren’t they practicing distancing right now; blocks of seats not allowed to be sat in etc.?

 

[Disstevefan1]

I think you are still missing my point, or maybe not...

Justifying risky behavior by quoting the number of people who haven‘t died from Covid yet is just plain silly. You want to do what you want to do and that’s fine, your choice.

This is all moot, the vaccine is coming out very soon and now with Joe in office everyone automatically trusts and will comply

 

[zombiebbq]

But those are learned habits...and we can always form others.

In the current environment - it makes no sense and that doesn’t mean we “hate” each other.

Doesn't mean I'm going to stop, or want to stop, after this is over. and I certainly wouldn't teach my kids that it's not okay to do so. But hey, to each their own. If you don't like to touch other people in any way shape or form (outside of the pandemic environment) that's your decision.

 

[GoofGoof]

Because next week is the earliest that Pfizer/BnT can submit data for an EUA or extended use agreement with the FDA, I'd love to see them submit a timeline to distribution and likely effect if "X, Y, and Z" number of people take it once available to at least half of the population. That would also give credence to the "we can't let up now" argument if the manufacturers themselves plea with the GP for help.

States were supposed to have sent vaccination plans in already to the federal government. I think after Pfizer applies for emergency use FDA approval they should be able to lay out more of a plan around how many doses will be available and when. It’s up to the government to decide who gets the vaccine first and how many doses to send where. It’s a huge undertaking, but I agree that people need to know if the timeframe is February or June just to set realistic expectations. The last thing we need is “vaccine waiting fatigue“ where people say they are sick of waiting so just going to do what they want.

 

[WillWrambles]

I’m just glad a working vaccine actually exists. Gives me hope things can return to some semblance of normalcy.

 

[Riverrafter21]

This is all moot, the vaccine is coming out very soon and now with Joe in office everyone automatically trusts and will comply

Widespread availability isn't being projected until Q2 of 2021. Hopefully by then everyone can get on board

The trick is going to be having people return for the second dose. Finishing a dose of antibiotics seems to be a challenge for some.

 

[Jrb1979]

Everyone is too focused on a vaccine to get everything back to "normal". Yes it will make it so we don't have to wear masks and let businesses run like they used to but if you think Disney is going reopen everything once a vaccine comes and finish projects I have a bridge to sell you. Hate to tell you but a vaccine isn't bringing jobs back that were lost.

Doesn't mean I'm going to stop, or want to stop, after this is over. and I certainly wouldn't teach my kids that it's not okay to do so. But hey, to each their own. If you don't like to touch other people in any way shape or form (outside of the pandemic environment) that's your decision.

I personally hope some of the social distancing things stay forever. I'm good with hugging my family but I hope we never go back to being shoulder to shoulder with anyone ever again. I'm enjoying having my personal space back.

 

[GoofGoof]

This is all moot, the vaccine is coming out very soon and now with Joe in office everyone automatically trusts and will comply

This vaccine has nothing to do with politics. If people want to give Trump full credit, fine by me as long as they take the vaccine. If other people want to give Biden credit, fine by me too as long as they take the vaccine. I’ll give full credit to Mike Pence’s fly if it means I get to go to WDW in August without a mask and see a fireworks show. What we can’t afford is some BS resistance to the vaccine over stupid political crap.

 

[GoofGoof]

The American Adventure theatre was never filled to its capacity ever in its existence. Also, aren’t they practicing distancing right now; blocks of seats not allowed to be sat in etc.?

I really like that show...but I can’t disagree. Maybe back at the EPCOT opening it was full

 

[GoofGoof]

Everyone is too focused on a vaccine to get everything back to "normal". Yes it will make it so we don't have to wear masks and let businesses run like they used to but if you think Disney is going reopen everything once a vaccine comes and finish projects I have a bridge to sell you. Hate to tell you but a vaccine isn't bringing jobs back that were lost.

Travel and tourism is being heavily restricted due to Covid and the pandemic. If a vaccine gets us out of the pandemic there will be a major bump in the industry. Not all jobs will come back immediately, but eventually the worldwide economy will recover, just like every other recession.

 

[sullyinMT]

States were supposed to have sent vaccination plans in already to the federal government. I think after Pfizer applies for emergency use FDA approval they should be able to lay out more of a plan around how many doses will be available and when. It’s up to the government to decide who gets the vaccine first and how many doses to send where. It’s a huge undertaking, but I agree that people need to know if the timeframe is February or June just to set realistic expectations. The last thing we need is “vaccine waiting fatigue“ where people say they are sick of waiting so just going to do what they want.

Right. I’m saying that I hope it gets spelled out in the messaging that “At +/-75% efficacy (I expect it to drop a little as phase 3 data becomes complete), if 40, 50, or 60% of people get vaccinated, here’s what we can expect in 1, 2, and 3 months if people continue with current protocols.”
Americans in particular, and humans to a large extent, are goal driven. It would give us a clear light at the end of the tunnel.

 

[DisneyCane]

I'm sorry, i stopped pretending to pay attention after "I voted for Trump".

Which is exactly what is wrong with this country. Almost half the country voted for Trump so you won't pay attention to what half the people in the country have to say? You can't be any more small minded and non-inclusive.

 

[techgeek]

But why post that at all? What’s the likelihood of an entire theater filled with COVID positive guests? This virus is bad enough as it is without using hyperbolic examples.

The American Adventure theatre was never filled to its capacity ever in its existence. Also, aren’t they practicing distancing right now; blocks of seats not allowed to be sat in etc.?

The original discussion was trying to force an image of playing actual Russian roulette with a 1000 round barrel, which is not something that is easy to visualize. I was simply trying to find a more relatable way of relating with the numbers we have all acknowledged as true.

No one is suggesting that an actual theater be filled with Covid + guests in real life, or that there is a 99.8% risk of fatality associated with attending a showing of AA with or without mitigations. Reasonable people understand this. It's not hyperbolic to try to frame numbers like this in ways that can be quickly visualized and understood. "This is what 1000 people looks like. Imagine 2 of them not there anymore"... how is that hyperbolic? Especially when it’s the current reality?