Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

Allow me to explain. Another post was comparing contracting COVID to Russian roulette. To me Russian roulette means chance of death.

Typically Russian roulette is played with a six shooter with only one of the chambers having a bullet, thats a 1 in 6 chance of death.

All I was saying that if you get COVID, there is a 99.8 percent survival rate. And while yes individually, it depends on your age and how many other health issues you already have, the overall survival rate is 99.8 percent.

Again, not a great analogy. Should I feel comfortable shooting us heroin with a dirty needle because 99.999% of the general population doesn‘t have HIV? Obviously, risky behavior greatly increases your chance of being on the wrong side of the equation.

 

[GoofGoof]

The Oxford vaccine would like to hold its hand up. Lest the outgoing person claim something he shouldn’t (unlikely I know)

Worse I hope it doesn’t turn into a competition (although it’s likely)

Worldwide we need to vaccinate billions of people. It’s going to take multiple effective vaccines. My hope is that 3-5 of the first movers are all safe and effective. That just speeds up the worldwide program and helps ensure we snuff this thing out worldwide.

 

[marni1971]

Worldwide we need to vaccinate billions of people. It’s going to take multiple effective vaccines. My hope is that 3-5 of the first movers are all safe and effective. That just speeds up the worldwide program and helps ensure we snuff this thing out worldwide.

Absolutely

 

[MisterPenguin]

Allow me to explain. Another post was comparing contracting COVID to Russian roulette. To me Russian roulette means chance of death.

Typically Russian roulette is played with a six shooter with only one of the chambers having a bullet, thats a 1 in 6 chance of death.

All I was saying that if you get COVID, there is a 99.8 percent survival rate. And while yes individually, it depends on your age and how many other health issues you already have, the overall survival rate is 99.8 percent.

And if we did nothing at all to stop its spread in the U.S. and everyone caught it, that would be three quarters of a million dead in a year. We're already at one quarter of a million dead.

Small numbers become very significant when applied to very large numbers.

 

[MisterPenguin]

To be fair, warp speed is making history. At no time in the past has the US or any country dedicated as many resources to a vaccine program. I can give credit where credit is due. The Trump administration badly botched almost everything related to Covid, their commitment to a vaccine was the one bright spot even though Trump himself almost ruined the prospects of a vaccine by denying the science and pushing for a vaccine early to help his re-election plans. Even though Pfizer wasn’t really using warp speed resources for distribution they will still be selling the doses to the government for free distribution.

Pfizer will indeed be using Warp Speed money for distribution.

 

[dreday3]

If we dedicated even a fraction of the money spent on warp speed to vaccine research for other viruses we could probably wipe out a number of things that really mostly impact the third world.

This is a great day for all of us. In a few weeks the Pfizer trial will hit the point where they reach the time threshold for safety (1/2 of participants will have been vaccinated at least 2 months ago) and they will be applying for emergency use authorization. Assuming the safety numbers look good the first people should be getting stuck some time in December. There’s still a great deal of work to be done rolling this out to everyone, but it’s a huge first step and 90% is a big number. Really, really important for the economy and for public health. If you don’t believe me, look at the Dow futures...up 1,500

It is such great news. Fantastic news.

We should all take a moment to let it sink in. We will have a successful vaccine!!! (yes it will take time, but enjoy this moment)

 

[GoofGoof]

Pfizer will indeed be using Warp Speed money for distribution.

They aren’t using the government offered assistance to distribute. Warp Speed hired Mckesson to distribute the vaccine to sites for vaccinations. Due to the low temperature and the need to use quickly after production Pfizer has elected to deliver their vaccine on a more just in time basis using a contract with UPS and DHL for end stage shipping. Moderna and some of the other front runners planned to use the McKesson distribution network under warp speed.

Edit: to be clear on this, the federal government is still buying the vaccine from Pfizer so they call the shots on where the vaccine goes and who gets it first. Pfizer is just delivering to wherever they are told to deliver, they have no say on who gets the vaccine or when. The government still calls the shots on that.

 

[zombiebbq]

I think “social distancing” in a lot of ways makes sense and always did.

Why do we pack ourselves in sardine cans? What the hell sense did handshakes or adult hugs ever make?

...hopefully “distance means respect” will become more of a thing. Upside

I'm an adult and I hug and kiss my friends and family because I love them. Handshakes are for greetings, and in many countries common greetings are a kiss. I don't do it now for obvious reasons, but to advocate that that type of human interaction should disappear forever is not only sad, but weird...

 

[MisterPenguin]

People seem to be confused about what Project Warp Speed is all about.

What Warp Speed is *not* about, is developing vaccines faster.

​

The science of making a vaccine and the testing of the vaccine in various stages is limited by scientific technology and logistics. You can't throw a billion dollars at science and assume they'll innovate a new type of quickly-developed vaccine in a matter of mere months.​

​

The vaccines that are in Phase 3 of trials have all leveraged existing technologies. Technologies that have been advancing over the years such that what once took a decade can be done in a year. Just think about how genome sequencing has advanced such that we had the genome of COVID mapped within a month of discovery.​

What Warp Speed is about, is production and distribution of vaccines faster.

​

The main purpose of Warp Speed is to reduce the time that a successful candidate is determined to distributing it to the general public. Ordinarily, when a successful vaccine is found, it would take months and months to produce, especially when we consider the whole world of 7+ Billion people need it.​

​

So, Warp Speed is funding the production of candidate vaccines in advance even before they are determined to be successful and safe. This way, if they are determined to be effective, they are immediately available in huge supply to be distributed. This also means that if a candidate is not successful, the millions of failed vials of vaccine get dumped.​

​

Some companies have taken Warp Speed money in advance to help with production of hopeful candidates. Some companies, like Pfizer and Novavax, have not, but, if they do have a successful vaccine, Warp Speed money will buy the huge lot that they have already produced in advance hoping that their vaccine is successful. And as @GoofGoof just mentioned, some companies will do their own distribution operations, even though Warp Speed bought the vaccines and will determine the order of distribution.​

​

​

 

[Disstevefan1]

And if we did nothing at all to stop its spread in the U.S. and everyone caught it, that would be three quarters of a million dead in a year. We're already at one quarter of a million dead.

Small numbers become very significant when applied to very large numbers.

In The US we have done a lot and continue to do a lot. There are many communities that still have mask mandates and still do not allow indoor dining. The US has done a lot and continues to do so...

 

[GoofGoof]

In The US we have done a lot and continue to do a lot. There are many communities that still have mask mandates and still do not allow indoor dining. The US has done a lot and continues to do so...

It’s been an uneven response which has been one of the biggest complaints.

 

[Kevin_W]

​

The science of making a vaccine and the testing of the vaccine in various stages is limited by scientific technology and logistics. You can't throw a billion dollars at science and assume they'll innovate a new type of quickly-developed vaccine in a matter of mere months.​

​

Not completely, but $$ dose help. You can fund overtime for lab tests and get necessary equipment much faster. Even just as simple as paying the scientists their salary to work on this project so they don't have to work on for-profit projects.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Again, not a great analogy. Should I feel comfortable shooting us heroin with a dirty needle because 99.999% of the general population doesn't have HIV? Obviously, risky behavior greatly increases your chance of being on the wrong side of the equation.

Still better than a 1 in 6 chance of death.
But good point, we still have many folks dying of heroin and opioid overdoses every minute of everyday.

As for AIDS, we are doing better, 2019, around 690,000 people died from AIDS-related illnesses worldwide, compared to 1.1 million in 2010.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'm an adult and I hug and kiss my friends and family because I love them. Handshakes are for greetings, and in many countries common greetings are a kiss. I don't do it now for obvious reasons, but to advocate that that type of human interaction should disappear forever is not only sad, but weird...

But those are learned habits...and we can always form others.

In the current environment - it makes no sense and that doesn’t mean we “hate” each other.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Still better than a 1 in 6 chance of death.
But good point, we still have many folks dying of heroin and opioid overdoses every minute of everyday.

As for AIDS, we are doing better, 2019, around 690,000 people died from AIDS-related illnesses worldwide, compared to 1.1 million in 2010.

You’re still chasing snipe.

The point was not to spread it - a multiplication factor - not the raw death rates.

Or put it this way: until it’s controlled - by the big boys and girls - you’re not getting your parks back. Throwing a temper tantrum and trying to “shout over the state house” hasn’t worked...and that was before the big flare started.

And it has.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Pfizer will indeed be using Warp Speed money for distribution.

We’re not going to give a ton of credit for any administration - ANY - for doing what was obvious here and in their own self interest, are we??

It’s gonna be a tough sell to try to pawn off “other people wouldn’t have given money for the vaccine...”

That’s a bridge too far EVEN for the United States.

 

[GoofGoof]

Still better than a 1 in 6 chance of death.
But good point, we still have many folks dying of heroin and opioid overdoses every minute of everyday.

As for AIDS, we are doing better, 2019, around 690,000 people died from AIDS-related illnesses worldwide, compared to 1.1 million in 2010.

I think you are still missing my point, or maybe not...

Justifying risky behavior by quoting the number of people who haven‘t died from Covid yet is just plain silly. You want to do what you want to do and that’s fine, your choice.

 

[MisterPenguin]

We’re not going to give a ton of credit for any administration - ANY - for doing what was obvious here and in their own self interest, are we??

It’s gonna be a tough sell to try to pawn off “other people wouldn’t have given money for the vaccine...”

That’s a bridge too far EVEN for the United States.

I do give credit to the Trump administration for Project Warp Speed. It was also up to Congress to fund it. It was a time they listened to the scientists.

Give credit where credit is due and blame where blame is due.

 

[techgeek]

All I was saying that if you get COVID, there is a 99.8 percent survival rate. And while yes individually, it depends on your age and how many other health issues you already have, the overall survival rate is 99.8 percent.

So to put these ‘Russian roulette’ numbers in the appropriate Disney context, every time you fill the American Adventure theater (capacity 1024) with COVID + guests, 2 don’t come out at the end of the show.

And at the moment, as a country... we’re running something like 100 shows a day.

 

[sullyinMT]

We’re not going to give a ton of credit for any administration - ANY - for doing what was obvious here and in their own self interest, are we??

It’s gonna be a tough sell to try to pawn off “other people wouldn’t have given money for the vaccine...”

That’s a bridge too far EVEN for the United States.

Especially since it hasn't all been "our" money. This has a been a global effort that will benefit the globe if multiple players pan out.

What reasonable posters are saying on here is that, unpoliticized, the effort and program deserve credit for cutting the development time drastically. That it's okay to give credit to the actual science teams that have unrelentingly busted their butts and the regulatory boards in Europe and North America that have moved as much out of the way as possible to let this move along.