Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[MaryJaneP]

Pick a realistic, science-based number. If location A cannot open until their county is below that number, what are they supposed to do if they re-exceed that number?

 

[DCBaker]

"Regeneron said patients given the treatment, REGN-COV2, made around 57% fewer Covid-19 related medical visits than those given a placebo over a 29 day period.

The drop was around 72% in patients with one or more risk factors such as being over age 50, obesity, cardiovascular, metabolic, lung, liver or kidney disease, or an immunocompromised status.

Last month, the company released early data from the trial showing the treatment reduced viral levels and improved symptoms in non-hospitalized Covid-19 patients. The new data confirm the initial findings, the company said."

"Regeneron said earlier this month it had around 50,000 doses of its treatment ready for distribution."

Regeneron says its Covid-19 antibody treatment cut medical visits in trial

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals said on Wednesday its coronavirus antibody cocktail significantly reduced medical visits in a trial of nearly 800 patients.

www.cnbc.com

 

[GoofGoof]

Looks like Pfizer is still expected to be first with vaccine results. Not much of an update, but here it is:

Britain expects verdict on Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine before AstraZeneca's: Times

Britain believes that the vaccine, which Pfizer is co-developing with Germany's BioNTech SE, could be ready to distribute before Christmas, the report said. Pfizer's Chief Executive Albert Bourla has previously said the company could release data on whether or not the vaccine works as early as...

news.yahoo.com

 

[Slpy3270]

Looks like Pfizer is still expected to be first with vaccine results. Not much of an update, but here it is:

Britain expects verdict on Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine before AstraZeneca's: Times

Britain believes that the vaccine, which Pfizer is co-developing with Germany's BioNTech SE, could be ready to distribute before Christmas, the report said. Pfizer's Chief Executive Albert Bourla has previously said the company could release data on whether or not the vaccine works as early as...

news.yahoo.com

We aren't getting an effective vaccine until probably 2022 or 2023, and even if we did it would take centuries for them to totally eradicate the virus.

Which means you can kiss the pre-pandemic recovery for theme park, travel and cruise ship industries goodbye. They have as much of a "future" as the satellite television business, which is none.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

We aren't getting an effective vaccine until probably 2022 or 2023, and even if we did it would take centuries for them to totally eradicate the virus.

Which means you can kiss the pre-pandemic recovery for theme park, travel and cruise ship industries goodbye. They have as much of a "future" as the satellite television business, which is none.

Sources?

 

[GoofGoof]

I‘m getting some great use out of this one....keep em coming

 

[oceanbreeze77]

A vaccine in 2021...yes.

Return to Normal life in 2022...yes.

 

[Slpy3270]

View attachment 509057
I‘m getting some great use out of this one....keep em coming

OK maybe I'm just exaggerating a bit, but between the growing mass layoffs of these industries and the threat of opportunistic hedge funds and activist investors initiating hostile takeovers of these companies, waiting the pandemic out isn't a desirable option.

A vaccine in 2021...yes.

Return to Normal life in 2022...yes.

Disney being broken up by investors, employees reduced to the tens of thousands, and mass social breakdown and quality of life decline in the US in 2023? Yes.

 

[GoofGoof]

OK maybe I'm just exaggerating a bit, but between the growing mass layoffs of these industries and the threat of opportunistic hedge funds and activist investors initiating hostile takeovers of these companies, waiting the pandemic out isn't a desirable option.

Why would activist investors and hedge funds want to buy assets in an industry with no future? None of that makes any sense. Mass layoffs are directly related to the pandemic. It’s going to take several years for tourism to fully recover but there’s no reason to believe the industry has no future. Are people just going to stop taking vacations forever?

On the vaccine front we will have to wait to see.

 

[Slpy3270]

Why would activist investors and hedge funds want to buy assets in an industry with no future? None of that makes any sense.

Dan Loeb wants Disney to be like Netflix, which to him means that theme parks, cable/broadcasting TV, theatrical distribution, music and cruises mean nothing and should be disposed of.

Anyhow, any idea that we're getting an effective vaccine in early 2021 is just bonkers.

 

[GoofGoof]

Dan Loeb wants Disney to be like Netflix, which to him means that theme parks, cable/broadcasting TV, theatrical distribution, music and cruises mean nothing and should be disposed of.

Who is going to buy the theme parks when the industry has no future? You can’t dispose of something if nobody wants to buy it.

Dan Loeb wants Disney to permanently suspend their dividend and instead reinvest the $3B a year in streaming services. Disney’s dividend yield is 1.4%. It’s not hard to find a better way to deploy that cash. In normal times the theme parks have a return on investment many times larger than the dividend.

 

[GoofGoof]

Anyhow, any idea that we're getting an effective vaccine in early 2021 is just bonkers.

The CEOs of Pfizer, Moderna, AstraZenaca and JnJ would probably disagree. There‘s certainly no guarantee any of their vaccines will work, but there’s a pretty good chance that one or more will share their trial results in the next month or 2 and if the vaccines are both safe and effective they will apply for emergency authorization. In the most optimistic timeline the first patients could receive the vaccine by Christmas. It’s certainly not bonkers to think there‘s a good chance one of the leading candidates will pan out. It will take time for everyone who wants it to get vaccinated.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Came across an interesting article from 2002 about plans to reintroduce the smallpox vaccine out of fears of it being weaponized. The plans were controversial because the smallpox vaccine is considered to be the most dangerous vaccine. They get into the odds of serious complications and even death which are not even measured as a percentage, they are out of a million inoculations. One death and up to about 75 serious complications out of a million. 300 American deaths was considered far too many for something that most assuredly would have killed more if released into a less populated area.

The Most Dangerous Vaccine

<b>Dan Rather</b> Reports On The Debate Over Safety Of Smallpox Vaccine

www.cbsnews.com

 

[Archie123]

We aren't getting an effective vaccine until probably 2022 or 2023, and even if we did it would take centuries for them to totally eradicate the virus.

Which means you can kiss the pre-pandemic recovery for theme park, travel and cruise ship industries goodbye. They have as much of a "future" as the satellite television business, which is none.

I’m guessing you were never good at making predictions.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

We aren't getting an effective vaccine until probably 2022 or 2023, and even if we did it would take centuries for them to totally eradicate the virus.

Which means you can kiss the pre-pandemic recovery for theme park, travel and cruise ship industries goodbye. They have as much of a "future" as the satellite television business, which is none.

Dan Loeb wants Disney to be like Netflix, which to him means that theme parks, cable/broadcasting TV, theatrical distribution, music and cruises mean nothing and should be disposed of.

Anyhow, any idea that we're getting an effective vaccine in early 2021 is just bonkers.

I’ve now changed my mind. There are aliens living among us.

 

[October82]

Pick a realistic, science-based number. If location A cannot open until their county is below that number, what are they supposed to do if they re-exceed that number?

It really depends on what you mean by a "science based number". Right now we are largely reacting to the outbreak spiking in the past after it has already spread to a large number of people. With a reliable contact tracing and testing regime in place, it is possible to slow the spread of the disease before that happens with less severe measures.

Without a reliable testing + contact tracing regime, you're left with more blunt tools that you might otherwise only use in a major outbreak.

This sort of question should remind us how important it is to act before, and not after, there is a spike in cases. A spike in cases means major disruption to daily life, while preventing that spike means less economic damage and better public health outcomes.

 

[bdearl41]

Because we all remember what halted the black plaque in London, and it wasn't letting the pandemic run its course.

So the Black Plague or bubonic plague was a bacterial infection spread by rats and fleas. Not a viral infection. They did practice quarantining but that took seven years to eliminate from London and did nothing to stop spread from other parts of Europe. It actually originated from Constantinople and kill 1/3 of Europe. So I wouldn’t say quarantines necessarily worked.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

So the Black Plague or bubonic plague was a bacterial infection spread by rats and fleas. Not a viral infection. They did practice quarantining but that took seven years to eliminate from London and did nothing to stop spread from other parts of Europe. It actually originated from Constantinople and kill 1/3 of Europe. So I wouldn’t say quarantines necessarily worked.

Read up on the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918.

 

[bdearl41]

No, history shows the opposite. The whole concept of keeping sick people or even just other people who may or may not be sick away was figured out centuries

Europe experienced a 4-5 month period prior to the start of their second wave where much of their economy was open, more than in the US over the same time. It’s proof that although the virus doesn’t go away, with effective control of it it’s possible to get most of your economy back and running between waves. Then you pull back and start the process over. Somehow in the US we got the idea that the plan has to be linear. We implement a response and the virus goes away for good, if it doesn’t go away than the response wasn’t worth doing.

I think that’s the point worth examining. The goal is to mitigate spread. Eliminating spread was and is never going to happen until the virus evolves. A vaccine won’t eliminate a rapidly evolving SARS virus. It’s gotta run it’s course. That’s the point. On the same token though the idea of eliminating all cases won’t do the trick either. It’s part of nature. See New Zealand. No cases for like a month then they had an outbreak. My point has never been one of not taking precautions, but instead one of tempered expectations and limiting blame.

 

[bdearl41]

Read up on the Spanish flu pandemic of 1918.

You mean that same flu still being passed around today? Yep it evolved to a less deadly strain and we developed T cells. It ran its course. Again not arguing against mitigation efforts. Just trying to point out there is not a panacea.